Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

[Zidane98]

Sanctions Worked, Western Caution Didn’t: European Diplomats Regret ‘Lost Momentum’ in Stopping Russia Early

European ambassadors in Washington say fear of escalation slowed pressure on Moscow – giving Russia time to adapt and prolong its war in Ukraine.

www.kyivpost.com

Fear of escalation, concerns about energy markets and limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities gave Moscow time to adapt, spread false narratives and entrench the conflict.

Across the panel, the message was consistent: Russia is paying a heavy economic price – but Western hesitation shaped the battlefield and prolonged Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Basically negotiations should be as follows to Putin:


You have 60 days to withdraw from Ukraine in an organised fashion. During this time Ukraine forces will cease fire. They will only fire if fired upon. Full withdrawal followed by sanctions removed within 60 days. Full access to frozen assets within 120 days of full withdrawal.

Failure to withdraw after 60 days = total blockade of Baltic / Black Seas to maritime vessels accessing Russian ports. No exceptions.

Up to 800,000 troops from willing allies deployed in Ukraine to maintain security - none of which will attack Russian forces and only fire when fired upon. This will free up Ukraine's entire armed forces to retake all territory bar Crimea in the East.

Poland / Romanian / Turkish air forces to strictly enforce a no fly zone. US assets remain on standby and only intervene if Russia attacks Ukraine and / or allies.

All Russian passport holders banned from international travel to Europe unless in the instance of urgent medical treatment not available in Russia.

 

[Zidane98]

Can anyone guess the poster who sounds like this ?

 

[barreness]

Don't forget the genetically engineered birds in biolabs that Putin claimed were being bred with the help of NATO / Illuminati etc.

Apparently they attacked ethnic Russians only but not the ones that hated Putin & Russia's invasion.

They also could distinguish between Ukrainians & Russians even though both ethnicities were slavic.

It turns out to be classic Putin projection lol.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/1...teer-pigeon-flocks-with-implanted-brain-chips


https://neiry.ru/en
It's somewhere here but I can't find it atm. 'We're on pigeons at the moment but albatross could be used for heavier cargo'(paraphrased), lol tech bros are insane the world over.

They do have a neurochip thing for dairy cows, could possibly be a less harm thing by not needing them pregnant once a year.

 

[barreness]

This is Russia



These sorts of things are inevitable when Russia is sanctioned / isolated.

Everything is shit except for piss in Russia.

Including dilapated outdated military equipment pressed into service because replacements cannot be acquired as a direct result of Putin's failed attempt at creating a new Russian empire.

 

[barreness]

Interesting numbers, black book of communism stuff

Only counting the death camp/holocaust figures for the Nazi's, counting the killed Nazi soldiers for Stalin. Bit of a pattern here from you

Also Hitler was most certainly not punished at Nuremberg, he took the heroes route and killed Hitler

 

[barreness]

Article from ASPI by the very wonderfully named Prof. Darius von Guttner, expert in central Europe and vampire slaying, about historical problems with the potential partitioning of Ukraine.

Shadows of 1795: why Ukraine fears peace built on partition | The Strategist

Proposals for a Ukraine peace deal that accept Russian territorial gains repeat the old pattern of great powers dividing weaker states. It is a pattern set in the partitions of Poland in 1795 and revived ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

The Poles still hold on to this lol. And the M-R pact, officer core massacre etc

To be fair the Soviets did give them a whole bunch of land and a state after WW2, thought they would have been happy after the Germans killed like 20% of their pop. Liberation and all that. More sane than the German stableboys at least

There was a thought by some (I forget the school of thought?) theorists early in the war that this ends up in a partition. Poland takes back Lviv and surrounds, Hungarians get back Transcarpathia, Russia with Novvoruyssia and probably the rest of the left bank of the Dniper.

Would be a lot of angry, armed Ukrainian nationalists(again)

 

[barreness]

Is this in addition to some disreputable ones like Putin and yourself?

I'm not autistic enough for it. It's mainly geolocating all(full-time job) the footage that comes out and having an eye for military geographic boundaries.

Nah, there's just a few good ones that have been proven right many times. AMK, Suriyak.

Kaliber for a pro-Russian take. Deepstate for pro-Ukraine(they used to be better but the SBU got involved and sent one of the main blokes to the front to die). Both are reasonable

ISW if you like being scammed by grifters.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/isw-polymarket-ukraine-war-map/
When nightfall came, these longshot gamblers miraculously won big, though not because Russia took the town (as of writing, Ukraine is still fighting for Myrnohrad). Instead, it was because of an apparent intervention by a staffer at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a D.C.-based think tank that produces daily interactive maps of the conflict in Ukraine that Polymarket often relies on to determine the outcome of bets placed on the war.

 

[barreness]

Basically negotiations should be as follows to Putin:


You have 60 days to withdraw from Ukraine in an organised fashion. During this time Ukraine forces will cease fire. They will only fire if fired upon. Full withdrawal followed by sanctions removed within 60 days. Full access to frozen assets within 120 days of full withdrawal.

Failure to withdraw after 60 days = total blockade of Baltic / Black Seas to maritime vessels accessing Russian ports. No exceptions.

Up to 800,000 troops from willing allies deployed in Ukraine to maintain security - none of which will attack Russian forces and only fire when fired upon. This will free up Ukraine's entire armed forces to retake all territory bar Crimea in the East.

Poland / Romanian / Turkish air forces to strictly enforce a no fly zone. US assets remain on standby and only intervene if Russia attacks Ukraine and / or allies.

All Russian passport holders banned from international travel to Europe unless in the instance of urgent medical treatment not available in Russia.

Damn, would think those countries might have an opinion on that. Zidane has called it though so fair enough

 

[Zidane98]

The Poles still hold on to this lol. And the M-R pact, officer core massacre etc

To be fair the Soviets did give them a whole bunch of land and a state after WW2, thought they would have been happy after the Germans killed like 20% of their pop. Liberation and all that. More sane than the German stableboys at least

There was a thought by some (I forget the school of thought?) theorists early in the war that this ends up in a partition. Poland takes back Lviv and surrounds, Hungarians get back Transcarpathia, Russia with Novvoruyssia and probably the rest of the left bank of the Dniper.

Would be a lot of angry, armed Ukrainian nationalists(again)

There are plenty of theorists suggesting that there's a possibility that Russia is destroyed by Putin continuing a needless war based solely on his delusions of creating a new Ruzzian Empire.

Resulting in a break up into independent republics many of whom resent Russian occupation strongly already.


I heard Russia might also end up being renamed Moscovia too.

 

[Zidane98]

Interesting numbers, black book of communism stuff

Only counting the death camp/holocaust figures for the Nazi's, counting the killed Nazi soldiers for Stalin. Bit of a pattern here from you

Also Hitler was most certainly not punished at Nuremberg, he took the heroes route and killed Hitler

The punishment was against Nazism in general. Noted you only worried about individual punishment for Hitler.


Btw how did unilateral annexations go for Putins idol Hitler?

I also wouldn't call Hitler killing himself in his bunker going the hero's route.

Do you think Pedo Putin will be viewed the same way when he also kills himself cowering away in his bunker ?

 

[Zidane98]

Damn, would think those countries might have an opinion on that. Zidane has called it though so fair enough

I'm simply stating this is what is needed to end the war if the fascists that run your country into the ground won't negotiate peace.

Right now we are at where Hitler was just prior to WW2 with his attempted annexations.

I hope peace is negotiated but unfortunately Adolf Putin does not seem interested in peace right now.

 

[Zidane98]

It turns out to be classic Putin projection lol.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/1...teer-pigeon-flocks-with-implanted-brain-chips


https://neiry.ru/en
It's somewhere here but I can't find it atm. 'We're on pigeons at the moment but albatross could be used for heavier cargo'(paraphrased), lol tech bros are insane the world over.

They do have a neurochip thing for dairy cows, could possibly be a less harm thing by not needing them pregnant once a year.

Nope

https://www.science.org/content/article/russians-must-know-it-s-lie-ukrainian-bat-research-spun-false-tale-bioweapons

Russia knew they were full of shit too.

This is interesting though

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

And Ukraine is right next door with easy access.

 

[Zidane98]

Remember Putin threatening Europe claiming it would freeze without Russian gas and that gas prices would skyrocket?


Reality bites:





Thanks to Putin's delusions of a new Russian empire containing Ukraine Russian state income from natural gas is permanently reduced.

This is irreversible too.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

Imagine anyone in this thread trying to argue Russians are winning:




The cold hard facts are that if Russia acted like a respected international member and did not invade Ukraine it would still have access to Sevastopol until at least 2042.


Now it permanently will never have access to Sevastopol unless Ukraine agrees to it.

 

[Saint]

Russia is heavily reliant on commercial aviation.

That industry has been obliterated thanks to sanctions, suspension from IATA, ICAO. The people are feeling it as no nation on earth relies more on air travel than Russia.

More here:

Russia’s Airline Industry Can Collapse Amid Severe Spare Parts Crunch

Russia's civilian aviation industry is facing a severe crisis as international sanctions cut off access to critical spare parts.

aviationa2z.com

They've relied previously on stripping commercial aircraft that Putin officially stole from lessors based in Ireland to maintain a reduced schedule.

If nothing changes only a fraction of flights will be able to run as Russia desperately seeks parts from 3rd party countries or tries to manufacture counterfeit parts itself leading to disaster.

On a scale of 1-10, how worried do you think an authoritarian dictator is that the Russian population finds it harder to move around?

The price will have gone up, the airlines will get the blame and the people will just fly less. Happens here all the time when an airline collapses.

 

[Zidane98]

On a scale of 1-10, how worried do you think an authoritarian dictator is that the Russian population finds it harder to move around?

The price will have gone up, the airlines will get the blame and the people will just fly less. Happens here all the time when an airline collapses.

It's not the moving passengers part of aviation that's absolutely critical.

Russia relies heavily on commercial aviation to transport essential cargo. It's the biggest nation in the world with poor road and rail networks with vast distances between major cities / population areas.


Pretty much if commercial aviation collapses which is a guarantee with Boeing/Airbus and western suppliers mostly ceasing business with Russian aviation Russia is in serious trouble. Possibly enough to get the people of Russia to turn on the government.

Just imagine in Australia if air freight and/or Jetstar / Virgin blue all but ceased operations. That is what Russia is facing.


We'd be absolutely ****ed and Russia is way more reliant on aviation than we are.


Putin's play is he gets a surrender from Ukraine before Russian commercial aviation reaches that point. Right now they are relying on stolen aircraft parts / trying to buy parts from 3rd party states and even resorting to making their own counterfeit parts.

And the Chinese won't help them on this as China has already been told it will face the same treatment Russia does if it redirects commercial aviation supplies that it has purchased to Russia.

 

[Saint]

It's not the moving passengers part of aviation that's absolutely critical.

Russia relies heavily on commercial aviation to transport essential cargo. It's the biggest nation in the world with poor road and rail networks with vast distances between major cities / population areas.


Pretty much if commercial aviation collapses which is a guarantee with Boeing/Airbus and western suppliers mostly ceasing business with Russian aviation Russia is in serious trouble. Possibly enough to get the people of Russia to turn on the government.

Just imagine in Australia if air freight and/or Jetstar / Virgin blue all but ceased operations. That is what Russia is facing.


We'd be absolutely ****ed and Russia is way more reliant on aviation than we are.


Putin's play is he gets a surrender from Ukraine before Russian commercial aviation reaches that point. Right now they are relying on stolen aircraft parts / trying to buy parts from 3rd party states and even resorting to making their own counterfeit parts.

And the Chinese won't help them on this as China has already been told it will face the same treatment Russia does if it redirects commercial aviation supplies that it has purchased to Russia.

The Russian Air Force has hundreds of cargo planes all locally produced and maintained. I'm sure they can black market any small part they need via Kazakhstan, Belarus, China or wherever.

All this stuff is going to make things harder for the ordinary Russian, but Putin ain't going to care.

 

[Zidane98]

The Russian Air Force has hundreds of cargo planes all locally produced and maintained. I'm sure they can black market any small part they need via Kazakhstan, Belarus, China or wherever.

All this stuff is going to make things harder for the ordinary Russian, but Putin ain't going to care.

Lol. They just tried to press an AN-22 back into service because of a shortage of aircraft.


Here are the results:





Russia does not have a local aviation industry any longer.


They've attempted to make a few aircraft here and there but even they are rubbish and also rely on western components that are unable to be purchased.


Basically Russian commercial aviation is reliant on western aircraft. This is the reason why Putin signed a decree effectively stealing aircraft owned by lessors when the invasion commenced. He did this in anticipation of sanctions, using stolen aircraft as a source of spare parts to keep critical aviation flying.

Putin absolutely needs a surrender from Ukraine before this reaches crisis point.

 

[Bestbird]

Was at Phuket airport yesterday. Suprised by the amount of Russian fljghts and amount of them in general at the beach resort i was staying at.

 

[Zidane98]

Was at Phuket airport yesterday. Suprised by the amount of Russian fljghts and amount of them in general at the beach resort i was staying at.

Yes, that's one of the few places where they can go these days.

 

[Zidane98]

Swing and a miss by Zahrakova

 

[Zidane98]

Oops. India refusing to accept delivery of Russian oil on shadow tankers due to threat of sanctions:



No wonder the price of Urals oil is plummeting.


Something like 182,000,000 barrels of Russian oil reportedly in floating storage right now. At the current discounted price of $40USD that's over $7 billion of income unable to be accessed by Putin & co.

I guess the likely result for these tankers is they wait around for China to accept them who take it off Russia's hands at $20 / bl.


Is North Korea an option? Do they have refining capability?


So much winning by Putin.