Analysis 2026 - The Way Forward

[caesar88]

Let's see how it pans out. I'd rather be optimistic and hopeful.

That's fair enough.

 

[Punts]

Need Edwards to come on quick and let a Mccartin to play a little looser or serong to really get that 3rd tall down pat.

Our defence isn’t good enough and as we see is what wins flags

If we can’t we will middle pack again

 

[KTT]

Not creating dissent amongst the playing group?? LOL

WTF?

 

[rustycrate]

I don't pretend to have the answers. Cox & co should have them. It is their job.

But somehow I don't think attempting to trade 50% of the Best Clubman winners on the list - and there were only four of them! - in the one off-season, and becoming the first Swans coach since 1998 to actually trade a Best Clubman winner, is the answer to a culture issue. Somehow, after a season in which you've struggled to get buy-in from your players, I don't think dropping bombs on the playing group whilst they're dispersed in various locations around the world is the answer to a culture issue.

I don't think you need a PhD in psychology to see this.

If Cox can't see the culture issues and have the ideas and solutions for how to fix them, then he is in the wrong job. Every team has issues that are unique to them, and ours is that we have a fragile and scarred playing group. In an ideal world we could just write them all off as damaged goods and replace them with newer, unburdened ones. But we can't. They're the playing group we've got and somehow have to forge ahead and win a flag with. So our coach has to meet the moment and remedy THAT issue.

Even more so than the issues of scoring, contested marking, whatever else he thinks is hampering our success on-field.

My best, unqualified guess is that it will require an emotional, holistic and nuanced approach, but from everything I've seen of Cox so far, he's into the tough stuff. A seven-hour review of the GF. Back-to-back time trials. Brutal taps on the shoulder. Plenty of "we need to train harder" rhetoric in press conferences. Public pursuits of contracted big fish.

It's all very loud and brash and commanding, but it's all just noise for me unless he has the sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors to mend the psyche of his players. Maybe he does and he just doesn't show it. Maybe it will take time to net results. If he rolls out a much steelier Swans team in 2026, I will be the first to praise him for it.

Sometimes it is as simple as mixing the eggs so they are scrambled. Nice and fluffy.
The side needed a shake up. What else can you do with the same ingredients.
Hopefully they taste good.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Need Edwards to come on quick and let a Mccartin to play a little looser or serong to really get that 3rd tall down pat.

Our defence isn’t good enough and as we see is what wins flags

If we can’t we will middle pack again

I agree that our defence needs to improve but where we lost in our big losses was more in our midfield defence than at the back. Also our inability to slow down transition.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Six of those eight wins were against 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th on the ladder.

Completely agree that our last 8 wins were completely overstated. Mostly against the poorer sides and we were still far from convincing.

It's a two parter for me. Mentality of the group as you stated - I get that you're pessimistic re the means in which Cox is trying to spark it, but if he's not doing the right way then what is the right way? I'm at a loss too

The other is the tactical part, which I'm more pessimistic about than anyone. We had excellent chemistry before last season and so far nothing Cox has done has given me any reason to be confident.

Of the above, one is useless without the other. We're doing a hail Mary with the mindset side of things, and the tactical part is up in the air after a poor first year for Cox on that front. My heart says we'll come out and be back at our best, my head says we'll meander with inconsistent results, more unconvincing wins, and a coach who will be under major pressure by the end of the year.

 

[Mister B]

What worries me most is my gut feel (which means I could be wrong) that the people at the top, including the coach, don't even realise what an issue the culture of our team is. Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

I understand your thinking however, my gut feel is the opposite. I feel like this is the shake up we needed. You don't perform consistently, you're not going to be handed games or a position in the side. Part of the criticism of our GF performances have been the mental aspect but also playing people that shouldn't have bee playing. I'm hopeful this will be the kick up the arse we need.

And if any of the players do sulk because their mates have been moved on, the question needs to be asked, should they be playing for us moving forward?

 

[Kiama Chris]

I understand your thinking however, my gut feel is the opposite. I feel like this is the shake up we needed. You don't perform consistently, you're not going to be handed games or a position in the side. Part of the criticism of our GF performances have been the mental aspect but also playing people that shouldn't have bee playing. I'm hopeful this will be the kick up the arse we need.

And if any of the players do sulk because their mates have been moved on, the question needs to be asked, should they be playing for us moving forward?

It will be fascinating to see the teams chosen for the preseason games and the first couple of rounds and how positively (or otherwise) we play. I doubt we can make any realistic judgement before then.

 

[Adnico26Parker]

I don't pretend to have the answers. Cox & co should have them. It is their job.

But somehow I don't think attempting to trade 50% of the Best Clubman winners on the list - and there were only four of them! - in the one off-season, and becoming the first Swans coach since 1998 to actually trade a Best Clubman winner, is the answer to a culture issue. Somehow, after a season in which you've struggled to get buy-in from your players, I don't think dropping bombs on the playing group whilst they're dispersed in various locations around the world is the answer to a culture issue.

I don't think you need a PhD in psychology to see this.

If Cox can't see the culture issues and have the ideas and solutions for how to fix them, then he is in the wrong job. Every team has issues that are unique to them, and ours is that we have a fragile and scarred playing group. In an ideal world we could just write them all off as damaged goods and replace them with newer, unburdened ones. But we can't. They're the playing group we've got and somehow have to forge ahead and win a flag with. So our coach has to meet the moment and remedy THAT issue.

Even more so than the issues of scoring, contested marking, whatever else he thinks is hampering our success on-field.

My best, unqualified guess is that it will require an emotional, holistic and nuanced approach, but from everything I've seen of Cox so far, he's into the tough stuff. A seven-hour review of the GF. Back-to-back time trials. Brutal taps on the shoulder. Plenty of "we need to train harder" rhetoric in press conferences. Public pursuits of contracted big fish.

It's all very loud and brash and commanding, but it's all just noise for me unless he has the sensitivity and nuance behind closed doors to mend the psyche of his players. Maybe he does and he just doesn't show it. Maybe it will take time to net results. If he rolls out a much steelier Swans team in 2026, I will be the first to praise him for it.

I read the above, and I thought to myself that Cox must be the senior coach, captain, CEO, chairman, head of football, and list manager all at the same time, because he's the only person you have made reference to, other than "Cox & co" at the top (not sure who "co" is). So unless Cox holds all of these positions, your criticism of him throughout the rest of your post is quite unfair without referencing the other on and off-field leaders of the club. I agree Cox shouldn't escape criticism, because he's now the senior coach, but if there are all of these major "cultural issues" you keep referencing, all of Pridham, and Harley (now Pav), Cameron, Mills and the rest of the leadership group would have had to address them as well. As senior coach, did Longmire address these issues after leading them to the two devastating GF losses, or did they just begin the day he resigned?

Even the coaching handover was, in my opinion, handled poorly by Harley and Pridham. How prepared were the playing group for such a massive change in such a short period of time? How would some of them reacted to such a big change being dropped on them? For some not well I expect. And Cox himself was dealt a pretty s**t hand when he was told he had the job just 4 days before the 2024 draft, and 2 days into the full squad's 2025 preseason.

How did Cox go with NOT having any extra coaching support in 2025, and how would having to coach the season 1-2 assistant coaches short all year affect his, the rest of the assistant coaches, and most importantly, the playing group's overall performance? Not well I suspect, because several players have publicly said he effectively had one hand tied behind his back the whole year. Clearly Cox didn't execute the game plan he wanted anywhere near where he would have planned or wanted to. Also having up to 16 players injured at one stage didn't help either.

And how about the role Mills and the unnamed "leadership group" should have been taking, especially when players such as Errol, and Chad in an interview back in June admitted that the PLAYERS had let standards slip. Is this related to the "culture issues" and the "dissent amongst the playing group"?

I don't know enought about the Rowbottom situation, other than the first thing we all heard was when his uncle said something on Triple M's GF day coverage about a trade to Gold Coast, and it took off from there. His manager denied it, other than the phone call with Craig Macrae he must have facilitated.

PS. Just on the GF review, the players have said they wanted to do it, and Cox agreed. Was the 7 hours warranted? Who knows, in hindsight probably not.

 

[MrSwans]

Replying to all of these in one as they all kind of touch on the same sentiment of a kick up the arse being what the playing group needed and/or if they are tough enough, they will get over it.

I don't disagree with either sentiment. I just think our culture is fragile at the moment and Cox is a new coach trying to gain trust. I don't think it was the time to do it. Brisbane can afford to make tough calls as they seem to have a great team culture with an established and proven coach. One decision with negative ramifications here or there would barely be a dent to them. I don't believe we are in that same place as a club and as a playing list.

Again, if only it was as simple as "they just have to get over it!" But they're our playing list. We can't trade or delist a whole playing group. So there has to be a solution beyond just demanding they grow a pair and harden up.

Re the trade period specifically, I haven't heard or seen anything to suggest the players were upset about Florent and Hayward being put up for trade. Both were incredibly popular, but the players have lost popular teammates before (think Stephens, Hewett, Aliir, Parker, Fox etc.) I think we need to give the players some credit that they understand it is a business and just because someone is a great bloke, it doesn't mean they shouldn't be moved on if necessary.

The Rowbottom situation was a bit of a different one. Forget what I or anyone on here thinks of him as a player. This time last year, to the players he was rated as highly as anyone bar Heeney & Gulden, and certainly would've been seen as "untouchable" in a trade sense. One disappointing season later and he is being put on the trade table. The players know that disappointing seasons are inevitable, and they will all likely have one at some point in their careers. No player should have a guarantee of a career-long place on the list, but the players are entitled to think that when their turn comes, that their coach will show faith and belief in them, and help them get through it and back to their best. Not that their coach will simply give up on them and put them up for trade the first chance he gets. Yet that is effectively what they saw with Rowbottom. All action, no nuance. How can they trust that he won't do the same with them?

There is a reason they broke ranks to make public their frustrations with Lachlan McKirdy (albeit anonymously), not to mention a reason his name being mentioned provoked public backlash from club figures like Gerard Healy, Mark Knight, even Warwick Capper. It's not because of what a great and popular guy Rowy is. It's that it was seen as reckless and a big mistake and they did not agree with it from a footballing perspective. For a coach who already did not get the buy-in he was after (celebrating his first win because they like the guy does not equate to "buy-in" as far as I'm concerned), he doesn't need to be doing anything more to sow seeds of doubt or distrust with his players.

So I guess that is the long-winded version of where I'm really at, which is that ruthless is fine, just not what's needed at this moment in our club's history.

I'm sure that Rowbottom is professional enough to want to prove any detractors or those who may have suggested a trade, as wrong.

I for one hope that he comes out firing in 2026 (rather than sulk like a child).

At the end of 2022, after McRae's first season as coach Collingwood got rid of a 2 time All Australian and Best and Fairest in Brodie Grundy. I'm sure that there was some player rumblings at the time, but the club were professional enough to come out firing in 2023 to win a Premiership.

 

[ashep]

Unbelievable seeing some whinge for years about the list, mentality and culture, then immediately turn around and whinge when the club take a couple of big swings to do something about it.

I'll wait and see how we go on the park before fretting.

 

[RilesMacca]

I too lean towards the side of scepticism on how we'll go next year with Coxy. Our game was far too erratic this season with many factors involved from injury to mental & physical lapses. However, appointing Goodwin to assist with the gameplan/look over the coaches on gameday + Laidler to fill in an empty coaches seat from 2025 should vastly help Cox.

It feels like we have evolved our list with the additions, offering a great blend of players who are ready to play soon/right away or make a mark in the VFL. Yes the majority of wins in the back half of the year were against bottom 8 sides, but we looked far more stable as a side relative to the first half of the season. The gulf between our best and worst football mitigated, but yes, not entirely. Overall it was a year to forget.

As I've said before a lot has got to give with this playing group if it is to get back up there. More consistency, better output from our top liners, fiercer pressure, perhaps some u23 players to breakout & compete for spots etc. Top 4 is on the cards if things click with the talent & galvanised core group of players we possess, but the range feels large with the doubts on the other side of the coin. So it's a big year coming up for Cox and the players with higher expectations to perform, but I'm sure many agree we've manufactured a productive offseason to help give us the best chance to succeed.

 

[tombomb]

I don't think I need to re-litigate at least half of the autopsy threads from the last five or so years. Our issues of mind & ticker have been well-documented and discussed ad nauseam.

The grand final humiliations, the second-half capitulations, the wins in one quarter of footy or sometimes even less, the horror losses to teams we shouldn't be losing to, the increasingly-common games where we're just completely uncompetitive, the inability to stop momentum, the lack of pressure from our players, their inability to produce second efforts, the selective work rate and willingness to defend, the way that selective work rate and willingness to defend in many cases gets rewarded, the lack of quality leaders, etc.

What worries me most is my gut feel (which means I could be wrong) that the people at the top, including the coach, don't even realise what an issue the culture of our team is. Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

Since the 2024 GF, we have a new coach, a new CEO, a new list manager. And we've traded out multiple senior players.

Regardless of whether some, or all, of those things are incidental, it seems clear to me that the club realises there needs to be change.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Since the 2024 GF, we have a new coach, a new CEO, a new list manager. And we've traded out multiple senior players.

Regardless of whether some, or all, of those things are incidental, it seems clear to me that the club realises there needs to be change.

The one thing we CANNOT say with any credibility is that nothing has been done. That would have been unforgivable.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I too lean towards the side of scepticism on how we'll go next year with Coxy. Our game was far too erratic this season with many factors involved from injury to mental & physical lapses. However, appointing Goodwin to assist with the gameplan/look over the coaches on gameday + Laidler to fill in an empty coaches seat from 2025 should vastly help Cox.

It feels like we have evolved our list with the additions, offering a great blend of players who are ready to play soon/right away or make a mark in the VFL. Yes the majority of wins in the back half of the year were against bottom 8 sides, but we looked far more stable as a side relative to the first half of the season. The gulf between our best and worst football mitigated, but yes, not entirely. Overall it was a year to forget.

As I've said before a lot has got to give with this playing group if it is to get back up there. More consistency, better output from our top liners, fiercer pressure, perhaps some u23 players to breakout & compete for spots etc. Top 4 is on the cards if things click with the talent & galvanised core group of players we possess, but the range feels large with the doubts on the other side of the coin. So it's a big year coming up for Cox and the players with higher expectations to perform, but I'm sure many agree we've manufactured a productive offseason to help give us the best chance to succeed.

It was a messy year, that’s for sure.

For me, the are three key questions. I think there is hope for the first two and uncertainty on the final one.

1. Was there fundamental progress below the surface? I think so. Cox wanted to make it harder for teams to score against us, and I think our transition defence stepped up considerably. I’m also happy to be corrected but I think our contested stats and ground ball gets may have also improved.

2. Was the messiness mostly due to short term issues? I think so. No team has a good year coming off a GF shellacking, new coach, shortages in the coaches box and that many injuries. What stood out to me was how much better our mids looked when Amartey was fit and could straighten us up, as well as Gulden’s return lifting the team.

3. Can all it all come together with a cleaner run, new players, new coaches and the learnings to build on? No one can really say. I am hopeful but it is a lot of things to click at once. I suspect we make finals after a mixed start but have 1-2 more things to nail until we truly contend.

 

[Kiama Chris]

It was a messy year, that’s for sure.

For me, the are three key questions. I think there is hope for the first two and uncertainty on the final one.

1. Was there fundamental progress below the surface? I think so. Cox wanted to make it harder for teams to score against us, and I think our transition defence stepped up considerably. I’m also happy to be corrected but I think our contested stats and ground ball gets may have also improved.

2. Was the messiness mostly due to short term issues? I think so. No team has a good year coming off a GF shellacking, new coach, shortages in the coaches box and that many injuries. What stood out to me was how much better our mids looked when Amartey was fit and could straighten us up, as well as Gulden’s return lifting the team.

3. Can all it all come together with a cleaner run, new players, new coaches and the learnings to build on? No one can really say. I am hopeful but it is a lot of things to click at once. I suspect we make finals after a mixed start but have 1-2 more things to nail until we truly contend.

Well said.
A little more on your first point. I think Cox wanted/wants the players to be a bit harder in general. A lot of the changes he made were due to injury (except for Wicks and McCartin) and trialling Bice etc but the signature change was dropping Lloyd and Florent and then keeping Florent in VFL. I think that was primarily about a lack of hardness and maybe it was a signal to the rest. When Melican got suspended Cox made a comment about "playing up to the line but not over it" and of course he was a tough nut as a player.
I'm also quite certain, based on how long we tried to avoid it, that he didn't want to let Hayward go. You could never say Wilbur was soft.
I think many of us would agree that a greater level of hardness helps in applying pressure and might contribute to the improvements you mention.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Unbelievable seeing some whinge for years about the list, mentality and culture, then immediately turn around and whinge when the club take a couple of big swings to do something about it.

I'll wait and see how we go on the park before fretting.

agreed ... and saved me from responding ...
worrying about culture in the middle of the off-season seems pointless and based on nothing

 

[bloodsbigot]

I don't think I need to re-litigate at least half of the autopsy threads from the last five or so years. Our issues of mind & ticker have been well-documented and discussed ad nauseam.

The grand final humiliations, the second-half capitulations, the wins in one quarter of footy or sometimes even less, the horror losses to teams we shouldn't be losing to, the increasingly-common games where we're just completely uncompetitive, the inability to stop momentum, the lack of pressure from our players, their inability to produce second efforts, the selective work rate and willingness to defend, the way that selective work rate and willingness to defend in many cases gets rewarded, the lack of quality leaders, etc.

What worries me most is my gut feel (which means I could be wrong) that the people at the top, including the coach, don't even realise what an issue the culture of our team is. Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

I definitely agree with the sentiment. It is worrying.

But I still remember making the Grand Final in 1996 and thinking it may never happen again. And it seemed like it never would. It was the best thing ever at the time and I was so excited just to see my team almost win it. Now it seems we make Grand Finals every few years regardless of the losses. It almost seems like routine. I think we've become really spoilt as supporters and forgotten to be grateful.

It's not exactly easy making Grand Finals, so we must be doing something right at the very least.

 

[rustycrate]

I don't think I need to re-litigate at least half of the autopsy threads from the last five or so years. Our issues of mind & ticker have been well-documented and discussed ad nauseam.

The grand final humiliations, the second-half capitulations, the wins in one quarter of footy or sometimes even less, the horror losses to teams we shouldn't be losing to, the increasingly-common games where we're just completely uncompetitive, the inability to stop momentum, the lack of pressure from our players, their inability to produce second efforts, the selective work rate and willingness to defend, the way that selective work rate and willingness to defend in many cases gets rewarded, the lack of quality leaders, etc.

What worries me most is my gut feel (which means I could be wrong) that the people at the top, including the coach, don't even realise what an issue the culture of our team is. Their actions during the trade period were not ones of an organisation paying any heed to culture.

It is a footy team.
The fact that we needed to get rid of Hayward abd Florent sends a message that no one is protected.
Culture is something that is grown over time.
It can also be enhanced by short term actions and strengthened or weakened as such.

How has the removal of Hayward and Florent strengthed or weakened the side?
I reckon the side knows that things needed to be done. They were done. The side knows this and they are infused with that knowledge and what else needs to be done. They need to colllectively go out and be better than they were last year.

I reckon having and looking at Curnow at training means to all players that what we gave up is visible for us to be a better side. What we gave up for him is the price to pay.

I reckon at training this is what the players see and what they consequentially do is about culture. Accept change. Embrace it. Go and do it.

That is culture in a positive sense. The Swans are positive. I think.

 

[bloodsbigot]

The fact that we needed to get rid of Hayward abd Florent sends a message that no one is protected.

I remember thinking we were insane for getting rid of Schneider (my favourite at the time) and Dempster. And it completely rejuvenated our list with Mumford, Jetta and Mattner.

The pessimists could see it as a Buddy/Tippett situation where we lost a number of players due to a salary cap squeeze, but I really do think it's more the former.

 

[Punts]

Time will tell

Definitely think will have to get a flag in the next 2 years otherwise we are cooked

Imo Cox won’t and isn’t good enough, hopefully this bites me

 

[swanssince2002]

Heeney suddenly becoming a player to build a side around definitely impacted this offseasons plans. His prime years are now.

The Curnow move was a signal that we should be contending for the flag. Moves in the offseason show that no one but a very select few are safe. No excuses. Over to the coaching staff and the players.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I remember thinking we were insane for getting rid of Schneider (my favourite at the time) and Dempster. And it completely rejuvenated our list with Mumford, Jetta and Mattner.

The pessimists could see it as a Buddy/Tippett situation where we lost a number of players due to a salary cap squeeze, but I really do think it's more the former.

I’m not quite sure why - but when we signed Buddy I thought “oh no, we’ve sold the farm”.
But when we signed Curnow I thought “worth a try”.

I think it’s the length of contract that worried me with Buddy.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I’m not quite sure why - but when we signed Buddy I thought “oh no, we’ve sold the farm”.
But when we signed Curnow I thought “worth a try”.

I think it’s the length of contract that worried me with Buddy.

Buddy also came on top of the Tippet trade the year before. It didn’t fulfil a need. We should have not traded for Tippet and only got Buddy (but we didn’t know how interested Buddy was at the time).

Buddy’s contract was also much larger as a proportion of the cap, as well as longer as you point out. I have no idea of salary levels, but I reckon we come out ahead on the cap by losing Florent and Hayward and gaining Curnow.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Buddy also came on top of the Tippet trade the year before. It didn’t fulfil a need. We should have not traded for Tippet and only got Buddy (but we didn’t know how interested Buddy was at the time).

Buddy’s contract was also much larger as a proportion of the cap, as well as longer as you point out. I have no idea of salary levels, but I reckon we come out ahead on the cap by losing Florent and Hayward and gaining Curnow.

The Tippett trade was planned and executed, then damaged by the shenanigans by Adelaide with their cap that saw him suspended. It was a good piece of recruitment.
The Franklin trade was like Adams - fell into our lap - but as you say made the Tippett acquisition redundant. Mucked us up for years, despite the value he added as a player.
The Curnow trade is nice and straightforward, even if the price was a bit high, but we shouldn't count Florent into that equation, just Hayward. He's incidental, but the overall effect is probably as you say.