Position 2026 AFL Fantasy Rucks

[tigs2010]

Thoughts on Pitto at 671k

 

[BennyFC]

Reckon we might have to adjust how the DVP operates with rucks. Looking at Xerri for example, most are banging on about how good his draw is to start the season, but I think the key is to see who the leaping rucks are and how they could impact his scoring, particularly at CBA's after his effort in the last scratchie.

From what I can see, CBA's make up around 30% of ruck contests, I assume that Xerri would normally win around 50% of HO's plus a few tackles and disposals. From what I saw he only won about 10% in HO's, instead of an average of 15 HO's/game from CBA's he could easily drop to 4-5 HO's/game against a leaping ruck, so a 10PPG reduction. Not factoring in less tackles and disposals from oppo's HTA's or 3 less throw ins/game.

Looking at his matchups over those early weeks I can see a distinct disadvantage at CBA's which will, IMO, affect his output.

Round 1. Visentini, leaping ruck
Round 2. A Reid, leaping ruck
Round 3. Blakiston, leaping ruck
Round 4. Reidy, leaping ruck
Round 5. Draper, leaping ruck
Round 6. Tigers, who knows?
Round 7. Riccardi, Leaping ruck

To me it's pretty obvious that his scoring will be impacted at CBA's but does his scoring around the ground make up for it given less ruck contests?

Jeeeeeez, seeing that list of ruck opponents makes me feel like I desperately need to get Xerri back in my team

 

[stallon]

Also rethinking Jackson. Getting set and forget rucks with a bye is now a bit more viable if McAndrew can cover.

Not sold on starting with a guy like Visentini or McAndrew. The gap in scoring between those guys and a premo is just not worth the cash saved. I'd understand if there was a lack of rookies in other positions, but there really isn't.

McAndrew + Gulden vs some mid rookie(not your best mid rookie, this is probably your 3rd best mid rookie) + English

Ive got more confidence in McAndrew + Gulden being the better combo - a lot more confidence.

 

[stallon]

How many points are you adding back on for teams playing two rucks and therefore rucking an inferior ruck against Xerri more often than a number one ruck? How will Xerri be able to exploit this when he snaps Reid/Blakiston/Riccardi in half from one of his tackles and they can't breathe for 5 minutes?

How many points are being added back from the ball being thrown up quicker? There will be more ball ups in quick succession this year imo.

Round 1. Visentini, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 2. A Reid, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 3. Blakiston, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 4. Reidy, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 5. Draper, leaping ruck - broken
Round 6. Tigers, who knows? - Nank who leaks points like no other.
Round 7. Riccardi, Leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?

Why would you presume the 5/7 rucks above, that haven't cut it at the level yet, are somehow going to prevent Xerri from scoring at the 110avg rate he's had over the past two years?

ball being thrown up quicker is a disadvantage for Xerri types and solo rucks. Hes got more sprints to do to get to the contest before its thrown up. Its not a small change, thats going to mean either less TOG for main rucks, or they sit behnd the play more often letting their second rucks or a taller mid contest the hitout, or theyre just less effective in general.

Xerri will have some help anyway, not like hes doing 100% time on ground, so orund 2 he will line up with Flynn 95% of the time, same as before
Round 4 itll be Pittonet 95% of the time, same as before
etc

 

[Corkintheocean]

ball being thrown up quicker is a disadvantage for Xerri types and solo rucks. Hes got more sprints to do to get to the contest before its thrown up. Its not a small change, thats going to mean either less TOG for main rucks, or they sit behnd the play more often letting their second rucks or a taller mid contest the hitout, or theyre just less effective in general.

Xerri will have some help anyway, not like hes doing 100% time on ground, so orund 2 he will line up with Flynn 95% of the time, same as before
Round 4 itll be Pittonet 95% of the time, same as before
etc

I'm talking about them throwing it up quicker once the congestion has occurred and you have 20 blokes around the ball. Then, the numerous stoppages with less of a break will benefit established bodies with the aerobic capacity for repeat efforts (something Xerri shines at).

 

[4tune8]

How many points are you adding back on for teams playing two rucks and therefore rucking an inferior ruck against Xerri more often than a number one ruck? How will Xerri be able to exploit this when he snaps Reid/Blakiston/Riccardi in half from one of his tackles and they can't breathe for 5 minutes?

How many points are being added back from the ball being thrown up quicker? There will be more ball ups in quick succession this year imo.

Round 1. Visentini, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 2. A Reid, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 3. Blakiston, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 4. Reidy, leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?
Round 5. Draper, leaping ruck - broken
Round 6. Tigers, who knows? - Nank who leaks points like no other.
Round 7. Riccardi, Leaping ruck - unproven quantity, can he run out a full game at contact?

Why would you presume the 5/7 rucks above, that haven't cut it at the level yet, are somehow going to prevent Xerri from scoring at the 110avg rate he's had over the past two years?

Heath dominated Xerri at CBA's purely because of the new ruck rules and it's quite likely that he'll come in as a 2nd ruck to Max and gain an advantage with his impact at CBA's. I would think that most clubs will do something similar, North could also run a 2nd ruck, the next practice match will shed more light as will round 0 (not with North)

Most of the matchups I listed would have their main ruck taking RC's around the ground, Flynn, Pittonet, Briggs and Nank. The Tigers have another R/F as a train on (Boston Dowling) who could well come in as a 2nd ruck. Draper would jump all over Xerri at CBA's. I did mention that Xerri would make up a lot of points around the ground, but, IMO, it's pretty obvious that he'll not have the scoring potential that he'd normally have because of the new rules, maybe he scores at 110 instead of 125?

 

[Corkintheocean]

Heath dominated Xerri at CBA's purely because of the new ruck rules and it's quite likely that he'll come in as a 2nd ruck to Max and gain an advantage with his impact at CBA's. I would think that most clubs will do something similar, North could also run a 2nd ruck, the next practice match will shed more light as will round 0 (not with North)

Most of the matchups I listed would have their main ruck taking RC's around the ground, Flynn, Pittonet, Briggs and Nank. The Tigers have another R/F as a train on (Boston Dowling) who could well come in as a 2nd ruck. Draper would jump all over Xerri at CBA's. I did mention that Xerri would make up a lot of points around the ground, but, IMO, it's pretty obvious that he'll not have the scoring potential that he'd normally have because of the new rules, maybe he scores at 110 instead of 125?

Was it purely because of this? Or could a contributing factor have been that Xerri was in second gear, in a glorified scratch match, in mid February?

How many additional holding the ball free kicks is Xerri likely to receive with the interpretation change in that rule? Or is it that all rule changes have a negative correlation to Xerri's scoring capacity this year?

 

[4tune8]

Was it purely because of this? Or could a contributing factor have been that Xerri was in second gear, in a glorified scratch match, in mid February?

How many additional holding the ball free kicks is Xerri likely to receive with the interpretation change in that rule? Or is it that all rule changes have a negative correlation to Xerri's scoring capacity this year?

I think it's obvious that a leaping ruck will have an advantage over a ruck that isn't as effective, add that to less throw ins and the possibility of a reduced ruck share, then there has to be a corresponding drop in output.

You disagree and that's fine.

 

[Corkintheocean]

I think it's obvious that a leaping ruck will have an advantage over a ruck that isn't as effective, add that to less throw ins and the possibility of a reduced ruck share, then there has to be a corresponding drop in output.

You disagree and that's fine.

Happy to disagree, you're making perfectly valid points.

 

[Corkintheocean]

So what's the story from last night?

87 hitouts in the match vs 2025 H/O avg of 78.8 per game.

Geelong and Carlton averaged 73.7 per game combined last year.

Are we going to get the old 'exact opposite outcome of what you're intending from an on the fly rule change'? It's an AFL specialty after all.

 

[tigs2010]

So what's the story from last night?

87 hitouts in the match vs 2025 H/O avg of 78.8 per game.

Geelong and Carlton averaged 73.7 per game combined last year.

Are we going to get the old 'exact opposite outcome of what you're intending from an on the fly rule change'? It's an AFL specialty after all.

Wonder how many last touch frees there were and also how many of them wouldnt have been insufficient intent anyway.

I can think of the Mitch Edwards one at half forward and thats it.

 

[Tex Danger]

Wonder how many last touch frees there were and also how many of them wouldnt have been insufficient intent anyway.

I can think of the Mitch Edwards one at half forward and thats it.

The fact they are going to interperet a payer having a ball hand balled into their legs and bouncing out as a last disposal is recipe for disaster an a lot of manufactured frees

If it wouldn’t count t as a disposal on the stat sheet it shouldnt count here

 

[tigs2010]

The fact they are going to interperet a payer having a ball hand balled into their legs and bouncing out as a last disposal is recipe for disaster an a lot of manufactured frees

If it wouldn’t count t as a disposal on the stat sheet it shouldnt count here

Assume we get the disposal for our players then if its last disposal rule, so it's just a NIL play rather than a -3

 

[Tex Danger]

Assume we get the disposal for our players then if its last disposal rule, so it's just a NIL play rather than a -3

Maybe but I’m not sure that because that’s how the OOB rules being interpreted that champion data will necessarily change the definition of what a possession is?

If they do they’d have to do it all over the ground surely? Then we’re looking at disposal number records

Who are the players who have the ball bounce into their legs most? Inside mids may get a score spike this year

 

[Barrybran]

Grundy knew this was a preseason game, right? I didn't want to go there but he looks good.

 

[bettingonbetts]

Grundy knew this was a preseason game, right? I didn't want to go there but he looks good.

 

[happy_eagle]

Grundy knew this was a preseason game, right? I didn't want to go there but he looks good.

If the second half of last year (outside his injury games) was anything to go by, he is potentially underpriced.
Would be a waste of a trade probably to start Xerri for his good early games and then switch to Grundy after his bye.

 

[Mr Gor]

Tossing up between Grundy and English. English takes more marks but Grundy gets more hit outs. Halp pls.


Btw I think the last touch out of bounds rule is affecting play indirectly. The rule might not get called much but teams are not kicking the ball near the boundary as much.

 

[danster168]

The thing is, those premium ruckmen need to outperform their starting "priced at" number to stay at the same price, eg Xerri will lose cash if he averages 105 that he is proced at.
I Xerri goes 100 only thats a big cash loss, automatically thats a bad starting pick, youd never be even content with that pick on any other line. Just an awful pick, as hed lose 80k+ over a month or so probably.

We have options like McAndrew, and Visentini who are just way underpriced as cheap options, consider it like swapping a mid rookie who you hope goes 50+ and Xerri(for example) for a ruck rookie(McAndrew) who should go 60+ easily and a mid premo you consider under-priced, who is less likely to lose cash.

Its a very obvious choice for me when its put like that, like McAndrew of all sub 350k players would just about be my first picked if hes named round 1

Then theres Briggs who is underpriced if you dont want a sub 300k R2, at least he wont go backwards.

Any poor rucks or rucks that are dropped are covered by the early byes best 18, so risk is next to 0.

As far as the game is shaping so far in this pre-season, set and forget is looking like the worst option for your ruck line tbh

Its not like we are short on trades anyway, instead of doing a mid upgrade at some stage, you do a ruck upgrade. Its the same result. If that doesnt satisfy then we generally have luxury trades from around the end of the mid season byes onwards - like a 3rd of the season.

what price do you put on saving 2 trades though. premiums dropping in price is irrelevant as ur not trading them. Guys like Rozee and Butters everyone is picking despite 0 upside. Sure, u can squint and say they could but history says that they'll score 100-105.

Saving 2 trades in the rucks is massive.

 

[stallon]

what price do you put on saving 2 trades though. premiums dropping in price is irrelevant as ur not trading them. Guys like Rozee and Butters everyone is picking despite 0 upside. Sure, u can squint and say they could but history says that they'll score 100-105.

Saving 2 trades in the rucks is massive.

Youre not saving or losing trades.

You are seeing it wrong.

Its a premo ruck + cheap mid vs premo mid + cheap ruck

Rucks have more questions marks so the mids are safer.
Cheaper rucks have better scoring potential than the rookie mids.
The premo mid + cheaper ruck wins quite confortably tbh, unless you are very confident in your premo ruckman to not go down in value for some reason.

You have the same amount of hopefully keepers in your starting squad

Same amount of trades to complete the team

 

[happy_eagle]

Youre not saving or losing trades.

You are seeing it wrong.

Its a premo ruck + cheap mid vs premo mid + cheap ruck

Rucks have more questions marks so the mids are safer.
Cheaper rucks have better scoring potential than the rookie mids.
The premo mid + cheaper ruck wins quite confortably tbh, unless you are very confident in your premo ruckman to not go down in value for some reason.

You have the same amount of hopefully keepers in your starting squad

Same amount of trades to complete the team

Thing is though the distinct lack of stepping stone rucks, and other cheap rucks puts you in a bad position if a cheap ruck fails.

If you start a cheap ruck and he fails or gets injured, you can really only go to the top. And early on in the season, you won't have enough cash gen yet to finance a proper upgrade, so the cost of something going wrong is having to cull a premium in another line to fix the ruck.

Compared to if a cheap mid doesn't go well. You generally have a few more options when that happens. You can cull down to a rookie that you might have missed and then spend that elsewhere, or you can downgrade somewhere else and upgrade to a stepping stone or a premium mid.

 

[perplexed]

Thing is though the distinct lack of stepping stone rucks, and other cheap rucks puts you in a bad position if a cheap ruck fails.

If you start a cheap ruck and he fails or gets injured, you can really only go to the top. And early on in the season, you won't have enough cash gen yet to finance a proper upgrade, so the cost of something going wrong is having to cull a premium in another line to fix the ruck.

Compared to if a cheap mid doesn't go well. You generally have a few more options when that happens. You can cull down to a rookie that you might have missed and then spend that elsewhere, or you can downgrade somewhere else and upgrade to a stepping stone or a premium mid.

Normally it may be an issue. But with byes in rounds 2-4, if the cheap ruck fails in round 1 and gets dropped you still have three weeks and nine trades to solve the problem.

 

[Tex Danger]

Normally it may be an issue. But with byes in rounds 2-4, if the cheap ruck fails in round 1 and gets dropped you still have three weeks and nine trades to solve the problem.

I know it’s considered a no no but if mcandrew was dropped/rested in rd 5, 1 week away from blakinston becoming a ruck, would it actually be the worst thing to cop a 1 week donut on a rookie (lose say 60 pts) if mcandrew was expected to return at some stage and had significant cash to make still and it meant you had other trades that were better in long term to make that week

People copped trainors 1 and still finished right at the pointy end

 

[stallon]

Thing is though the distinct lack of stepping stone rucks, and other cheap rucks puts you in a bad position if a cheap ruck fails.

If you start a cheap ruck and he fails or gets injured, you can really only go to the top. And early on in the season, you won't have enough cash gen yet to finance a proper upgrade, so the cost of something going wrong is having to cull a premium in another line to fix the ruck.

Compared to if a cheap mid doesn't go well. You generally have a few more options when that happens. You can cull down to a rookie that you might have missed and then spend that elsewhere, or you can downgrade somewhere else and upgrade to a stepping stone or a premium mid.

The early byes protect you for the first few rounds.

To be clear im not saying that McAndrew R2 and a rookie at R3 is a good idea at all, even if the downside is very small due to the early byes.

McAndrew/Visentini sharing R2/3 is my plan

 

[BennyFC]

I know it’s considered a no no but if mcandrew was dropped/rested in rd 5, 1 week away from blakinston becoming a ruck, would it actually be the worst thing to cop a 1 week donut on a rookie (lose say 60 pts) if mcandrew was expected to return at some stage and had significant cash to make still and it meant you had other trades that were better in long term to make that week

People copped trainors 1 and still finished right at the pointy end

Don't think you should be considering the timeline for Blakiston to become a ruck to be honest - as soon as Bryan comes back (Rnd 5 or 6) he needs to be traded out ASAP