Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[txbyhull]

Age is irrelevant. We won a flag with the of the youngest teams in 2010 , means sfa now

2010 achieved no more than our 2023 flag which was exceptionally older.

Age is not irrelevant, I think you just missed my whole point? What happens to Collingwood when all the oldies retire? Which is within the next couple of years? With Tasmania entering are you expecting to keep your list afloat and replace 5-10 players with entirely FA and OOC acquisitions?

 

[OniAu]

Age is not irrelevant, I think you just missed my whole point? What happens to Collingwood when all the oldies retire? Which is within the next couple of years? With Tasmania entering are you expecting to keep your list afloat and replace 5-10 players with entirely FA and OOC acquisitions?

Lets flip it. What do you think they should be doing ?

 

[txbyhull]

Let’s flip it. What do you think they should be doing ?

Let the really old ones who have no value play until retirement. Sell 1 30-33 year old that you can manage a second rounder for ongoing, and make moves for FA to fill retirements using your second rounders.

Take first rounders to the draft especially if they’re high picks.

Having Nick Daicos be your only young talent IS a problem. It’s fine while you’re still contending but if or when a slip down the ladder comes it would hurt pretty dramatically.

Not having a natural first rounder on the books since 2018 outside of Daicos is not a good thing. 3 top 25 picks in the 2020s and only 1 is of any real talent is not a good thing.

 

[doppleganger]

I think the criticism of the logic comes from pies fans seemingly not being concerned about the ancient list they have? Old and contending is great until all the oldies are gone and you’ve got a very sparing number of good players under 25

The Pies had one of the oldest lists back in 2018-20 and again had / have one of the oldest lists from 2023-26.

Teams who are old seem to feature deep in finals.

In 4 off-seasons from 2021 to 2024 we added 11 "mature" players (22 and over) who have played finals for us - Lipinski, Frampton, B.Hill, T.Mitchell, McStay, Markov, Schultz, Houston, Perryman, R.Steele and Membrey.

You don't need to just have 18 yr old kids and wait / hope they will be good AFL players in 4-5 years.

Instead of replacing our 2020 veterans like Mayne, Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Varcoe, Roughead, Reid, Beams with kids and collapsing down the ladder post 2020 when we moved on veterans, we ensured we brought in senior / mature players.

So we remained old, but also remained a finals team.

What is stopping us doing the same again from 2027-30? Replacing old veterans with a new group of mature players?

 

[txbyhull]

The Pies had one of the oldest lists back in 2018-20 and again had / have one of the oldest lists from 2023-26.

Teams who are old seem to feature deep in finals.

In 4 off-seasons from 2021 to 2024 we added 11 "mature" players (22 and over) who have played finals for us - Lipinski, Frampton, B.Hill, T.Mitchell, McStay, Markov, Schultz, Houston, Perryman, R.Steele and Membrey.

You don't need to just have 18 yr old kids and wait / hope they will be good AFL players in 4-5 years.

Instead of replacing our 2020 veterans like Mayne, Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Varcoe, Roughead, Reid, Beams with kids and collapsing down the ladder post 2020 when we moved on veterans, we ensured we brought in senior / mature players.

So we remained old, but also remained a finals team.

What is stopping us doing the same again from 2027-30? Replacing old veterans with a new group of mature players?

I think that’s the play in a relative sense, but I also think there needs to be SOME draft investment. The club has done as close to zero as possible

 

[spky1234]

The Pies had one of the oldest lists back in 2018-20 and again had / have one of the oldest lists from 2023-26.

Teams who are old seem to feature deep in finals.

In 4 off-seasons from 2021 to 2024 we added 11 "mature" players (22 and over) who have played finals for us - Lipinski, Frampton, B.Hill, T.Mitchell, McStay, Markov, Schultz, Houston, Perryman, R.Steele and Membrey.

You don't need to just have 18 yr old kids and wait / hope they will be good AFL players in 4-5 years.

Instead of replacing our 2020 veterans like Mayne, Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Varcoe, Roughead, Reid, Beams with kids and collapsing down the ladder post 2020 when we moved on veterans, we ensured we brought in senior / mature players.

So we remained old, but also remained a finals team.

What is stopping us doing the same again from 2027-30? Replacing old veterans with a new group of mature players?

Team is a hell of a lot older, pies actually dropped to the 12th oldest team in 2021/2022 as well.

Doubt you get the greatest player of a generation coming in to instantly become a top player in the league either.

Also had a young pick 5 De goey, Pick 9 Moore, pick 13 NGA Isac Quaynor. + Maynard, Murphy, J.Daicos to add to Nick - who realistically is the real pick 1, who become the core of the team and were the main reason for the resurgence. So Pies had 3 superstars from 3 top 10 picks + another 1st which they don't have this time.

You've massively underrated the influence that the draft had on your team to bounce back in the 2020s.

Also all those veterans don't come close to the caliber of players that will be leaving in Pendles, Sidey, Howe, Elliot, Crisp etc + Mihocek who's left a gaping hole already - except for Grundy.

 

[spky1234]

Lets flip it. What do you think they should be doing ?

Just look at a projected b23 for the pies in 2028 and I'd be curious on what you would think.

2028
FB: Quaynor Frampton 32 Maynard 32
HB: Houston 31 Moore 33 Parker?
C: Lipinksi 30 Long? Allan?
HF: De goey 32 Mcstay 33 Schultz 31
FF: McCreery West? IDEK?
R: DC 33 Daicos J. Daicos 30

I/C Perryman 30, Steele? Reef? Harrison? Buller?

So many gaps with unproven players with limited pedigree or experience. And a further number of remaining old players to be replaced.

Currently you still have Maynard, Houston, Lipinski, J Daicos, Quaynor, Nick, and Perryman at the absolute peak of their powers. Couple years down the track not so much.

I think it's a an absolutely fascinating watch what could happen here with the pies. But at some point they've got to start pumping more games into the youngsters other than just Allan.

Do you think you can even afford to forego any more firsts, or that even 1 or 2 free agents is enough to surge this team into premiership contention. Add in a B.King or a Bailey, you probably avoid a full bottom out, but can it really lift the team that much?

If I was in charge of the pies I would look to get in as many firsts as possible and develop them over the next 3-4 years and have a massive crack at a flag when Nick is 27/28 again. Then you add in free agents then.

 

[Sherbert99]

The Pies had one of the oldest lists back in 2018-20 and again had / have one of the oldest lists from 2023-26.

Teams who are old seem to feature deep in finals.

In 4 off-seasons from 2021 to 2024 we added 11 "mature" players (22 and over) who have played finals for us - Lipinski, Frampton, B.Hill, T.Mitchell, McStay, Markov, Schultz, Houston, Perryman, R.Steele and Membrey.

You don't need to just have 18 yr old kids and wait / hope they will be good AFL players in 4-5 years.

Instead of replacing our 2020 veterans like Mayne, Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Varcoe, Roughead, Reid, Beams with kids and collapsing down the ladder post 2020 when we moved on veterans, we ensured we brought in senior / mature players.

So we remained old, but also remained a finals team.

What is stopping us doing the same again from 2027-30? Replacing old veterans with a new group of mature players?

How interesting that you classify a 27 year old Adams and a 26 year old Grundy as "veterans" in 2020.

Btw the average age of the Collingwood 2018 Grand Final team was 25 years, 10 months. Collingwood had the 7th youngest squad that year.
Average age for Collingwood on Saturday was 28 years, 5 months. Collingwood are still by far the oldest squad in the AFL even after moving on Cox and Tom Mitchell.

By all means keep believing Ned Long will replace Pendlebury as you insinuated earlier.

 

[Sherbert99]

Rebuild - No
Blood youth - Yes
Cull all senior players for the sake of youth- No
Replace senior players borderline fringe with youth - Yes

Geelong are the premium example on being there abouts year after year. I hope our pies management are looking at them with what to do. Not going all in on youth just for the sake of being young. No one can emulate GC or Lions. As both have had good fortune through academies & F/S for lions.

My main concern is building around Nick , we need to start slotting in pieces to "replace" and build a future. Id hate for us to waste his premium years like Buckley in late 90s

Our ladder finishes arent dire. Much can be said about trading first rounders , but they havent been year after year a top 5 pick.

2025 4
2024 9
2023 1
2022 4
2021 17
2020 8
2019 4
2018 3
2017 13

Geelong signed Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron, generational players who they still rely on and don't have replacements for.

Which players of this caliber will Collingwood be signing to emulate the Geelong model? Have Collingwood ever traded in a player of this stature since Buckley?

The only player available at the end of the year who's even close to Cameron/Dangerfield level is Butters, but there is significant competition for his signature and the Bulldogs are current the big favourite.

You can point to recent ladder finishes, but that just signals further similarity to all the other old sides who fell off a cliff in the past 10 years: Hawthorn, Richmond, West Coast, etc.

 

[spky1234]

Geelong signed Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron, generational players who they still rely on and don't have replacements for.

Which players of this caliber will Collingwood be signing to emulate the Geelong model? Have Collingwood ever traded in a player of this stature since Buckley?

The only player available at the end of the year who's even close to Cameron/Dangerfield level is Butters, but there is significant competition for his signature and the Bulldogs are current the big favourite.

You can point to recent ladder finishes, but that just signals further similarity to all the other old sides who fell off a cliff in the past 10 years: Hawthorn, Richmond, West Coast, etc.

Also cats have drafted Clark, De Koning, Holmes, and COS + traded in a young superstar in Smith + Bruhn all from the first round. Also Ollie Henry but questionable if he's even going to make it.

Drafted Neale, Humphries and Ollie Dempsey + actually play their youngsters.

See Pies fans try to compare them all the time but the fact is the Cats don't abandon the draft and actually nail their draft picks.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Also cats have drafted Clark, De Koning, Holmes, and COS + traded in a young superstar in Smith + Bruhn all from the first round. Also Ollie Henry but questionable if he's even going to make it.

Drafted Neale, Humphries and Ollie Dempsey + actually play their youngsters.

See Pies fans try to compare them all the time but the fact is the Cats don't abandon the draft and actually nail their draft picks.

I think everyone is forgetting that last year we went all chips in to win the whole box and dice, got close, didn't get to form at the right time.

This year, we'll see a LOT more games into the unknowns, Parker, Harrison, Sullivan, Allan, West, Steele etc. those just off the top of my head. No one has any idea of what they could turn out to be.

Apart from that, the core is still there, Jaicos, Naicos, Moore, DC, Degoey, Quyanor, Perryman, Bruz, Houston, McCreery, those just off the top of my head - all at least B graders, some probs A graders (certainly Nick, DC, Moore and the potential of Degoey).

Yeah some are old, but what is old? 30 -32 isn't 'past your best' in footy anymore - some of the best in the comp are over 30, Max Gawn and Danger come to mind.

So yeah IMO, we're not contending this year, but with a group like that, IF game and player development comes on (which has been a cornerstone of the Pies sucess since 21) then they'll likely contend next year or in 28.

So it's not like we've just abandoned the draft, we just haven't used them much to this point, it'll be very different this year.

It's a watch and see, game development with the cattle we've got is more important than the cattle we've got IMO.

 

[Mynamesinuse]

How interesting that you classify a 27 year old Adams and a 26 year old Grundy as "veterans" in 2020.

Btw the average age of the Collingwood 2018 Grand Final team was 25 years, 10 months. Collingwood had the 7th youngest squad that year.
Average age for Collingwood on Saturday was 28 years, 5 months. Collingwood are still by far the oldest squad in the AFL even after moving on Cox and Tom Mitchell.

By all means keep believing Ned Long will replace Pendlebury as you insinuated earlier.

The fact Long and Allen are in their future is a concern.

 

[Worm4]

I think everyone is forgetting that last year we went all chips in to win the whole box and dice, got close, didn't get to form at the right time.

This year, we'll see a LOT more games into the unknowns, Parker, Harrison, Sullivan, Allan, West, Steele etc. those just off the top of my head. No one has any idea of what they could turn out to be.

Apart from that, the core is still there, Jaicos, Naicos, Moore, DC, Degoey, Quyanor, Perryman, Bruz, Houston, McCreery, those just off the top of my head - all at least B graders, some probs A graders (certainly Nick, DC, Moore and the potential of Degoey).

Yeah some are old, but what is old? 30 -32 isn't 'past your best' in footy anymore - some of the best in the comp are over 30, Max Gawn and Danger come to mind.

So yeah IMO, we're not contending this year, but with a group like that, IF game and player development comes on (which has been a cornerstone of the Pies sucess since 21) then they'll likely contend next year or in 28.

So it's not like we've just abandoned the draft, we just haven't used them much to this point, it'll be very different this year.

It's a watch and see, game development with the cattle we've got is more important than the cattle we've got IMO.

With all due respect, there arent any Gawns or Dangers on collingwoods list. Oh , and Sullivan is fast approaching 30, pretty old to be considered "an unknown" in my opinion.

 

[Sherbert99]

I think everyone is forgetting that last year we went all chips in to win the whole box and dice, got close, didn't get to form at the right time.

This year, we'll see a LOT more games into the unknowns, Parker, Harrison, Sullivan, Allan, West, Steele etc. those just off the top of my head. No one has any idea of what they could turn out to be.

Apart from that, the core is still there, Jaicos, Naicos, Moore, DC, Degoey, Quyanor, Perryman, Bruz, Houston, McCreery, those just off the top of my head - all at least B graders, some probs A graders (certainly Nick, DC, Moore and the potential of Degoey).

Yeah some are old, but what is old? 30 -32 isn't 'past your best' in footy anymore - some of the best in the comp are over 30, Max Gawn and Danger come to mind.

So yeah IMO, we're not contending this year, but with a group like that, IF game and player development comes on (which has been a cornerstone of the Pies sucess since 21) then they'll likely contend next year or in 28.

So it's not like we've just abandoned the draft, we just haven't used them much to this point, it'll be very different this year.

It's a watch and see, game development with the cattle we've got is more important than the cattle we've got IMO.

You went "all in" with the equivalent of a jack,7 offsuit and already had the short stack. It just wasn't the smart play.

Darcy Cameron A grade?! He just got smashed by 3-gamer Lachlan McAndrew. Doesn't get any easier at 31 years old.
De Goey? Guy's missed half the season twice in a row, and when he gets on the park there's no consistency.
You are now thinking of guys like Perryman and McCreery as your "core"? Yikes.

Dangerfield and Gawn are considered generational players. Bit rich to use them as an example for why it's ok to have half the team over 30. Dangerfield actually couldn't keep it up last year and struggled in the Grand Final.

Parker? West? Allan? Harrison? Fans will always have high hopes for their clubs youngsters, but Collingwood objectively have the worst youth in the AFL. No question about it.

 

[Sherbert99]

This year, we'll see a LOT more games into the unknowns, Parker, Harrison, Sullivan, Allan, West, Steele etc. those just off the top of my head. No one has any idea of what they could turn out to be.

Also you're playing up the "unknown" factor of a 28 year old VFL mid?

 

[JZTIME!]

Correct, after spending a decade getting not much by taking top 10 picks to the draft, they pivoted and decided to trade out high end draft picks in back 2 back drafts to instead attract senior established players... isn't that the opposite of what rebuilding clubs do??

Picks you won't or don't have to trade out. see what you wrote below aside from the bolded

That depends how we go during the season. We have our 1st and 2nd round picks for next two drafts atm.

If we finish top 6 again like we have in 6 of the last 8 seasons we obviously wont have a top10 pick.

If we collapse in a heap and finish bottom 4, we will get a top5 draft pick.

We already have 20 players on our list who are yet to play 20 games...a realistic expectation is a number of them turn into 100+ game players. If you get a 200 or 300 game champion you are doing well.

The higher the draft picks get the less likely the above is statistically

And then do what the Pies have consistently done recently and target mature senior players to immediately come in to fill positions.

There is no prize for filling your list with kids and deciding to become an uncompetitive development club.

All most of us are pointing out is that:

1. You don't have any high draft picks or young players from that range coming through. High end picks are important, a PP allowed you to take a player and Pendles (pretty special player) you are still benefitting from those high picks

2. If you did have some high draft picks tassie is coming in and you can't draft from all the states anymore so the pool is so diluted its harder than ever to nail them

3. The chances your mature age recruits and late draft picks becoming stars is low statistically.

4. You guys have been blessed with elite father sons and a handy NGA player in IQ. All who were at the high end of the draft. Do you have more coming through we don't know about

5. Regarding 4, your recent record would not be possible without them. Your continually stating because it all lined up for you once with Father sons, Free Agents and a couple of mature agers, that it will again.

I will eat humble pie if you are still in this position and the same thing happens again over the next 5-6 years. I won't be the only one that will need to. If 90% of us are right though lets hope the 10% are able to eat that same pie

 

[nineteen eighty]

Forward lines an obvious issue. Im interested to see if Fly goes to the well for half a season then changes. To me the warning bells are there. Id be swapping McStay back now, hes pitiful for a veteran player

McStay for mine would make a very good second ruck. Similar to the role Leigh Brown played for you. He's being played out of position as a KPF. He could kick 20-30 goals per year if he wasn't the primary focus.

 

[nineteen eighty]

...

What is stopping us doing the same again from 2027-30? Replacing old veterans with a new group of mature players?

Nothing is stopping the Pies going down this path other than picks.

Now the club may well be able to engineer the picks.

If I get a moment later today, I'll take a look at the players you listed and see what it took to bring them in. The strategy of bringing in "ready made" players is valid. It's obviously all on the execution...and the selection of the right players.

 

[nineteen eighty]

I think everyone is forgetting that last year we went all chips in to win the whole box and dice, got close, didn't get to form at the right time.

This year, we'll see a LOT more games into the unknowns, Parker, Harrison, Sullivan, Allan, West, Steele etc. those just off the top of my head. No one has any idea of what they could turn out to be.

Apart from that, the core is still there, Jaicos, Naicos, Moore, DC, Degoey, Quyanor, Perryman, Bruz, Houston, McCreery, those just off the top of my head - all at least B graders, some probs A graders (certainly Nick, DC, Moore and the potential of Degoey).

Yeah some are old, but what is old? 30 -32 isn't 'past your best' in footy anymore - some of the best in the comp are over 30, Max Gawn and Danger come to mind.

So yeah IMO, we're not contending this year, but with a group like that, IF game and player development comes on (which has been a cornerstone of the Pies sucess since 21) then they'll likely contend next year or in 28.

So it's not like we've just abandoned the draft, we just haven't used them much to this point, it'll be very different this year.

It's a watch and see, game development with the cattle we've got is more important than the cattle we've got IMO.

My view is in order to contend again next year, you need both Butters and King to join the club. Having Butters and Daicos running around together would be something to see. And having someone to kick to who can kick a goal (and not what you have today in McStay and Membrey) would bring a number of your smalls into play.

Oh and IF Hill can make it back then huge upside (serious doubt on this).

Now could Collingwood engineer it to bring those 2 into the club, I doubt it but you're not short in off field talent to at least work through it.

 

[Muddiemoose]

McStay for mine would make a very good second ruck. Similar to the role Leigh Brown played for you. He's being played out of position as a KPF. He could kick 20-30 goals per year if he wasn't the primary focus.

Don’t think they can risk him in the ruck
The bloke has hardly played a full season since joining the pies and not sure his body would hold up, especially given the new ruck rules that force players to jump in the centre square

 

[JZTIME!]

Nothing is stopping the Pies going down this path other than picks.

Now the club may well be able to engineer the picks.

If I get a moment later today, I'll take a look at the players you listed and see what it took to bring them in. The strategy of bringing in "ready made" players is valid. It's obviously all on the execution...and the selection of the right players.

Works if you have elite level father sons and a first round NGA. Not sure those are waiting in the wings for the next tilt

 

[doppleganger]

How interesting that you classify a 27 year old Adams and a 26 year old Grundy as "veterans" in 2020.

They were important experienced veteran players, both Copeland Trophy winners (Pies BnFs) who we moved on from.

But instead of collapsing and going bottom four and drafting kids, we decided to bring in mature players and have made finals again.

Btw the average age of the Collingwood 2018 Grand Final team was 25 years, 10 months. Collingwood had the 7th youngest squad that year.

I'd check the source of your figures, Pies list according to draft.guru
2018 4th oldest
2019 3rd oldest
2020 the oldest

Average age for Collingwood on Saturday was 28 years, 5 months. Collingwood are still by far the oldest squad in the AFL even after moving on Cox and Tom Mitchell.

Is anybody disputing that?
Sydney and Geelong were the next oldest.

Old teams tend to perform better, which is why teams love quoting ages as it gives an excuse for poor performance.

The concern comes if you are old and are not making finals. But too early for panic stations at the Pies, 1-1 a pass.

By all means keep believing Ned Long will replace Pendlebury as you insinuated earlier.

In terms of CBA attendance he already has, Long and Daicos are the main mids.

Pendles and Sidey will be shifted around, still quality players so can jump in and support, but they are no longer our main midfielders.

In terms of quality, Daicos has already assumed the mantle as our main midfield star - he takes the baton from Pendles.

 

[chaddy22]

The fact Long and Allen are in their future is a concern.

The fact that Mcstay, Membrey and Buller are the key forwards is a bigger concern.

 

[ShereKhan]

Yep.
Not sure why so many fans buy in to the club selling a decision to be horrendous for 4-5 years in the hope of coming good at some time in the future.

North are a decade in
Carlton are a decade in and looking poor again
Essendon are still talking how young they are
Richmond themselves are used to decades outside of finals

Pies didn't have much choice but to 'go again' in 2026, having given up quality draft picks for Schulz and Houston and spent decent coin on the likes of McStay & Perryman, and on the back of a PF they had no real option and it's to be commended. When you think you have a chance I'm an advocate to have a crack, as with soon to be 19 x teams flags are very hard to win.

But the writing was on the wall the last 9 x games of 2025, which Pies fans didn't want to really acknowledge. They won 3 x games of the last 9, with 2 x wins against the Tigers and Demons. They really struggled to score in this period. Then in the off-season they let go Mihocek and Cox. Then Hill isn't playing and Elliott was never going to repeat his 2025 form at his age....so their scoring woes were highly unlikely to improve relying on McStay, Buller and Membrey or the very raw youngsters.

Pies are good enough to string some wins together and at times this season they may look like contenders...but the last 11 x games they've played it's pretty clear they are not seriously in the flag hunt, so interesting decisions end of 2026.

 

[ShereKhan]

The Pies had one of the oldest lists back in 2018-20 and again had / have one of the oldest lists from 2023-26.

Teams who are old seem to feature deep in finals.

In 4 off-seasons from 2021 to 2024 we added 11 "mature" players (22 and over) who have played finals for us - Lipinski, Frampton, B.Hill, T.Mitchell, McStay, Markov, Schultz, Houston, Perryman, R.Steele and Membrey.

You don't need to just have 18 yr old kids and wait / hope they will be good AFL players in 4-5 years.

Instead of replacing our 2020 veterans like Mayne, Grundy, Treloar, Adams, Greenwood, Varcoe, Roughead, Reid, Beams with kids and collapsing down the ladder post 2020 when we moved on veterans, we ensured we brought in senior / mature players.

So we remained old, but also remained a finals team.

What is stopping us doing the same again from 2027-30? Replacing old veterans with a new group of mature players?

There's 'old lists' and then there's 'old lists'.

In 2018 Pies were 4th oldest, but had an average age of 24.4 and 68.3 average games.
2019 was 24.8 and 75.6

In 2025 it was 26.2 and 97.6
In 2026 it's 25.8 and 94.8

In 2019 you had under the age of 25yo:

Quaynor 20yo
Murphy 20
J Daicos 21
Noble 23
Maynard 23
DeGoey 24
Moore 24
Cameron 24

Plus you had Naicos coming.

And you've got a bunch of old age freaks playing very good footy well beyond the norm.

So it's not the same situation, as the young quality is not there, there's not another 'Naicos' in the wings, and the likes of Lipinski, DeGoey of 2026 are not Pendlebury, Sidey, Howe and Elliott of 2019.

You can hope there'll be a repeat - but the list profile and quality of youth of 2025-26 is very very different to 2018-19.