Prediction Geelong's fortunes for season 2019

[Turbocat]

I think Geelong will be a strong, yet second tier team next year. In that group that gives us something to cheer about but never really looking like they can compete on the big stage against the best.

One difference I'm hoping (and think) we will see this year is that team cohesion and comradery amongst the playing group that has been lacking since the glory days.

For the first time, it appears the players are bonding more after it was signalled out as a weakness in the review. It seems the players now spend time outside of footy with each other which helps build team chemistry. I think the players under Joel etc are taking more responsibility.

This will translate into better team cohesion (our no.1 weakness) and help us fight out guttsy wins.

This is the area of improvement I see.

I'm also happy that it seems we've finally accepted the times to move into the era of pressure football. We were the only finals team playing a gamestyle that worked prior to WB/Richmond. It may seem uglier, not our way etc. but it is vital in competing in September in the modern times. I love how we've had a contested 1-1 element in our preseason, as well as having players like Dahl, Rohan & Atkins in the forward line - it'll have a domino effect on our competitiveness.

One player I think will surprise is Atkins. I think he will be a lock for our defensive forward in the Max Rooke role. We need players like this as it's infectious and team lifting to the playing group. This is also an area that has been lacking over the years.

I finally think we've pulled the finger out. Not sure what you guys think but last year (and the years before) we looked like we were too good on paper for the crap we sometimes dished out and the frustrating, infuriating way we played really shit me. Even after we won, I felt frustrated at times for how we almost couhghed it up or for the stupid shit we did during games. This year, I think with less expectation, we will play in a non-frustrating way. A more hardened and inspired way that leaves us happier after games.

A heck of a lot of what you have scribed here is smack on what I feel... I have had this underlying feeling that too many at the club have had this skin of denial ..and to a point that skin served an important purpose in developing the type of success we have had in the past ...but that was a long time ago. Its now 8 years since we were on the back end of our 5 years of GF era. Did the club take to long to react to that lack of success when it counts? The type of comments that have come out from the club this off season is the type of grumbles several on here have had for some years now. Personally my bridge too far was the 2016 Syd final but I know one guy who said we were done after the Freo finals in 2012 and 2013. No one says its easy.. and the club has been trying to make it work without dropping totally away.

Yes a second tier team, how could we be anything else till we again start be a legit finals team. Something to cheer about ..as in beating Gold Coast at KP etc? Thats probably why the last couple of years the most enjoyment I have got is the young players showing something.. certainly the way we played in general rarely gave one the type of pleasure when were were a scoring machine of a side. I agree Atkins may surprise yet I have an underlying doubt that we can really build a 1st tier team with as many guys like him as we have. Can we really end up with a team good enough when we have not been fishing in the deep end of the pool. Perhaps we can get a good team , a good team playing quite well but is that good enough. More than another someone like that , I think we desperately lack young guns that are not guys who a support role players. I feel when push comes to shove we will see Danger and Joel in the guts again because they still represent our best chance at winning. How different would we be if Cockatoo and Parfitt had the type of season that put them in our best 5 or 6 players.

 

[you pick one]

The mind set is still not quite right at the top IMO, my heart sunk when I heard Scarlo say they are trying Guthrie on a wing,to me that says there is no spot for him in the middle or down back but they're determined to squeeze him in anyway,I expect if that's the case we will see all of Taylor Blits Henderson and Kolo down back together and Henry forced up the ground,no ticker at Geelong to drop name players for team balance.

 

[Cataholic]

The mind set is still not quite right at the top IMO, my heart sunk when I heard Scarlo say they are trying Guthrie on a wing,to me that says there is no spot for him in the middle or down back but they're determined to squeeze him in anyway,I expect if that's the case we will see all of Taylor Blits Henderson and Kolo down back together and Henry forced up the ground,no ticker at Geelong to drop name players for team balance.

I didn't hear the comment so don't know the context, but perhaps 'trying' him on the wing is a last measure before putting a line through his name as they narrow down their Best 22?

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Its funny - im normally conservative - however im getting good vibes about the upcoming season

The new ready made ( which is important) Ruckman in Fort - what Dangerfield said etc

Rohan - super fit - you dont know what hes going to do - at least hes quick - hes not some plodder

Sav Rat - you go back - early last year - Melb and Coll games - his overhead marking at CHF was outstanding - and do Geel need a CHF

The SA recruits

Players like Zac Guthrie and Occonnor - if they are ever going to be ready to play - this year is it - the other Guthrie knows its just about make or break this year . Jones ( not that he does ) cant use the excuse thats hes young and inexperienced - this year will show whether he is up to it- he is a lovely kick

And finally the club admitting that their style of play needs a change - and as much as i was of fan of Menzel - relying on him didnt work

Geelong might actually surprise rather than just winning enough games against the lower sides and losing to the top sides to finish in the bottom rungs of the 8

 

[Down at K Park]

The mind set is still not quite right at the top IMO, my heart sunk when I heard Scarlo say they are trying Guthrie on a wing,to me that says there is no spot for him in the middle or down back but they're determined to squeeze him in anyway,I expect if that's the case we will see all of Taylor Blits Henderson and Kolo down back together and Henry forced up the ground,no ticker at Geelong to drop name players for team balance.

Trying him on a wing doesn't mean he is an instant selection in the best 22. If anything it means he has been locked out of the back 6 and they don't see a role for him there, so let's see if he is even worth trying somewhere else just in case we need him.

Still makes me question wtf he was given a new 3 yr deal ffs. Should have been 2 at the absolute max.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Trying him on a wing doesn't mean he is an instant selection in the best 22. If anything it means he has been locked out of the back 6 and they don't see a role for him there, so let's see if he is even worth trying somewhere else just in case we need him.

Still makes me question wtf he was given a new 3 yr deal ffs. Should have been 2 at the absolute max.

Guthrie will play every game when fit unfortunately. He'll be squeezed in somewhere.

 

[cynical]

the wing is probably Guthrie's best spot these days

but it should be wing or bust

moving him around to different positions has been a big fail

 

[Jeff76]

I have us behind Pies, Eagles, Tigers, Demons, Bombers and maybe Crows. I am looking forward to seeing some new blood in the team and some old blood out hopefully. We’ll finish from 7th to 12th.

 

[Turbocat]

I have us behind Pies, Eagles, Tigers, Demons, Bombers and maybe Crows. I am looking forward to seeing some new blood in the team and some old blood out hopefully. We’ll finish from 7th to 12th.

Interesting.

I can happily live with a 12th finish if it meant a significant trial of younger players in key positions... I doubt we do that.. imo..we are more likely to finish 5th to 10th going back to the knowns.. my gut feeling is the noise coming from Danger and Joel is the know the door/window is closing (it may have already closed on them) and finally there is a significant acceptance of what they have been doing has not worked. The "noise" about our training...we are playing the PS hard ..far harder than what we have of recent years.. so we will see I guess. To me its all about the first 8 or so weeks..turn 6 2 and we are in it.

As you can see we play a lot of the sides you have highlighted ...

"Pies, Eagles, Tigers, Demons, Bombers and maybe Crows" ... I think you could make a case for a few others as well .. and that includes us. If one was a negative type we..could be 0 4 by the time we play the Hawks...

Id like to be where the Demons are .. they should be primed ..if they do not get something out of their group they really have just wasted an era. But would i surprise if they do? Since 1964 , has there been a more wasteful club? Saints maybe?

 

[steady2]

Nothing i could think of would change anything.

I agree 100%, you should turn that into your personal slogan.

 

[steady2]

... Ablett did actually average the highest metres gained per game (462.26).

So yes, that rank is correct. Ablett gains more metres every game than anyone else in the team, but there are three other midfielders in the team who do it with a lower disposal ratio, and are therefore more efficient/damaging.

That is illogical. Because he gets more disposals, or the others get fewer you assume they are more "efficient/damaging". Ablett was getting more disposals and gaining more metres, his disposal efficiency was excellent, possibly the best in the team.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

That is illogical. Because he gets more disposals, or the others get fewer you assume they are more "efficient/damaging". Ablett was getting more disposals and gaining more metres, his disposal efficiency was excellent, possibly the best in the team.

Yet where did he finish in the B&F? Hmmm...

 

[Spazz Cat]

Disposal efficiency and meters gained are useless stats. So are B+F results.

 

[JumpyHolden]

We have a team capable of going all the way but won't happen, the review was a load of bullshit which hasn't put any pressure on Scott to change things around.

For me nothing changes in 2019 we will have a similar year to 2018, lose a few games that we should win, lose to Essendon, lose after the bye and get embarrassed in the finals again.

 

[Max Milburn]

We have a team capable of going all the way but won't happen, the review was a load of bullshit which hasn't put any pressure on Scott to change things around.

For me nothing changes in 2019 we will have a similar year to 2018, lose a few games that we should win, lose to Essendon, lose after the bye and get embarrassed in the finals again.

You've already shared this brain fart, several times.

 

[JumpyHolden]

You've already shared this brain fart, several times.

Yeah but hasn't sunk in with some.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Interesting.

I can happily live with a 12th finish if it meant a significant trial of younger players in key positions... I doubt we do that.. imo..we are more likely to finish 5th to 10th going back to the knowns.. my gut feeling is the noise coming from Danger and Joel is the know the door/window is closing (it may have already closed on them) and finally there is a significant acceptance of what they have been doing has not worked. The "noise" about our training...we are playing the PS hard ..far harder than what we have of recent years.. so we will see I guess. To me its all about the first 8 or so weeks..turn 6 2 and we are in it.
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As you can see we play a lot of the sides you have highlighted ...

"Pies, Eagles, Tigers, Demons, Bombers and maybe Crows" ... I think you could make a case for a few others as well .. and that includes us. If one was a negative type we..could be 0 4 by the time we play the Hawks...

Id like to be where the Demons are .. they should be primed ..if they do not get something out of their group they really have just wasted an era. But would i surprise if they do? Since 1964 , has there been a more wasteful club? Saints maybe?

I agree we could start 0 4. But if it happens we could still be 4 4 after 8 games and be in contention.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

There's not a hope in hell we start 0-4.

 

[Turbocat]

There's not a hope in hell we start 0-4.

well im certainly not hoping for it... and one would have high hopes to win the home games...

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

well im certainly not hoping for it

We're more likely to be 4-0 than we are 0-4

 

[Turbocat]

We're more likely to be 4-0 than we are 0-4

Id hope you are correct ... the post that by jeff76 i refferenced actually mentioned that they had 3 sides they rated ahead of us in the first 3 rounds..

"I have us behind Pies, Eagles, Tigers, Demons, Bombers and maybe Crows."

Id be hoping to be 2 and 2 ..win the home games ...but its very difficult draw .

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Id hope you are correct ... the post that by jeff76 i refferenced actually mentioned that they had 3 sides they rated ahead of us in the first 3 rounds..

"I have us behind Pies, Eagles, Tigers, Demons, Bombers and maybe Crows."

Id be hoping to be 2 and 2 ..win the home games ...but its very difficult draw .

We beat the Pies last year, only lost to West Coast due to injury and have them at home this time around, we beat Melbourne twice and the Crows didn't even play finals.

People are getting carried away with the Eagles flag. They played 2 finals at home and matched up in a GF with the one team they'd have fancied themselves with ... one without any key position players. Any other Vic side and they don't win that flag.

 

[Turbocat]

We beat the Pies last year, only lost to West Coast due to injury and have them at home this time around, we beat Melbourne twice and the Crows didn't even play finals.

People are getting carried away with the Eagles flag. They played 2 finals at home and matched up in a GF with the one team they'd have fancied themselves with ... one without any key position players. Any other Vic side and they don't win that flag.

All true what you are saying in your first para...

id only say that we are playing finals type teams (imo) the first 6 rounds possibly first 8 .... its been many years since we have started 0-4 but its a possibility in that we play the Pies at the G, Crows in Adelaide ..and Melb although we beat them twice ..one could easily say they should have beat us twice. GWS has never threatened us at KP so till they do it should be a win. Its most likely that we find a way to be 2 and 2 but I will be more confident once I see some form or games..

 

[Landgraft]

All true what you are saying in your first para...

id only say that we are playing finals type teams (imo) the first 6 rounds possibly first 8 .... its been many years since we have started 0-4 but its a possibility in that we play the Pies at the G, Crows in Adelaide ..and Melb although we beat them twice ..one could easily say they should have beat us twice. GWS has never threatened us at KP so till they do it should be a win. Its most likely that we find a way to be 2 and 2 but I will be more confident once I see some form or games..

How the idea that Melbourne should have beat us grew legs is beyond me. That's not a rational interpretation of those games.

Also I'm still backing the Crows to be shit. Only team in that list I'm concerned about is Collingwood.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

The first 3 rounds will tell us all we need to know. After that our draw opens up.