George
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Reimagine Moorabbin
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2015
- Posts
- 45,307
- Reaction score
- 127,304
- Location
- Victoria
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
- Other Teams
- Phi Eagles & Phillies, Liverpool, PAO FC
- Banned
- #1
Previous Meetings:
Round 13, 2018 - Gold Coast (11.12.78) lost to St.Kilda (11.14.80)
Round 14, 2017 - St.Kilda (14.19.103) defeated Gold Coast (10.12.72)
Round 15, 2016 - Gold Coast (15.18.108) defeated St.Kilda (8.20.68)
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Preview (Thanks to lewdogs)
St.Kilda v Gold Coast
St.Kilda are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2018 season and they've begun the march back in promising style, with two impressive victories against North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs in the JLT Community Series.
For the Suns, they leave the pre-season campaign with a win and a loss, beating the Bulldogs by 5 points but then falling to Sydney the week after by 42.
Let’s have a look at possible best 22s:
St.Kilda Best 22
B: Jarryn Geary, Darragh Joyce, Shane Savage
HB: Josh Battle, Callum Wilkie, Jimmy Webster
C: Jack Billings, Jack Steven, Jade Gresham
HF: Matthew Parker, Tim Membrey, Ben Long
F: Dean Kent, Josh Bruce, Jack Lonie
Foll: Lewis Pierce, Jack Steven, Sebastian Ross
I/C: Nick Hind, Luke Dunstan, Hunter Clark, Jack Newnes
Gold Coast Best 22
B: Charlie Ballard, Sam Collins, Jarrod Harbrow
HB: Pearce Hanley, Jack Hombsch, Jordan Murdoch
C: Brayden Fiorini, David Swallow, Jack Martin
HF: Jack Lukosius, Peter Wright, Alex Sexton
F: Darcy Macpherson, Chris Burgess, Ben Ainsworth
Foll: Jarrod Witts, Touk Miller, Anthony Miles
I/C: Jack Bowes, Lachie Weller, George Horlin-Smith, Callum Ah Chee
Medical Room
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For the Saints, defender Dylan Roberton will sit out the entire season due to heart complications. Paddy McCartin spent last Sunday night in hospital and remains in doubt for round one. Steven is back training, so he seems likely to return early in the season. Blake Acres (back) and Daniel McKenzie (heel) both lined up for Sandringham last Sunday while Pierce has recovered from concussion.
As for the Suns, the problems haven't taken long to mount with bad news on Izak Rankine and Aaron Young early in the week. Corey Ellis and Josh Corbett are both chances to be available for round one but neither has played a match during the pre-season and would likely kick off their campaigns in a NEAFL practice match.
Preview
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A promising pre-season. New coaches, new players, new energy and enthusiasm, and wins on the board in the JLT. Not too long ago, things were looking up as a Saints fan, or there were at least reasons to be optimistic going into the 2019 season.
Unfortunately, a series of injuries to key players has seen our seemingly sweet off-season turn suddenly sour. Jake Carlisle, a key linchpin of the defence, gone for a long time with a back injury. Jack Steven, our best midfielder, taking some time off for his mental health. The prized recruit Dan Hannebery suffering from hamstring awareness (the words akin to nails down the blackboard for Saints fans). Then Dylan Roberton’s heart plays up again and he’s gone for the season, and Paddy McCartin suffers another concussion. It has been a series of whacks to our side that will present many challenges early on in 2019. On top of these big injuries, the likes of Blake Acres and Dan McKenzie, two good players that we’d love to be able to turn to right now, are also suffering from niggles.
The big question facing the Saints right now is how can we respond to this sudden adversity. Alan Richardson and his team will certainly have a challenge on their hands to ensure the players are motivated going into round 1, with the belief they can win regularly this season and rebuild from a horror 2018. It is a comfort to know that we have the likes of Brett Ratten, Brendan Lade and Billy Slater at the club now, people that have come from cultures of success and with enormous amounts of experience.
Our first match for season 2019 will be against the Gold Coast Suns, a team that many fancy for the wooden spoon this year (at least until our recent bad luck struck). I must preface this by saying I don’t know a lot about the Suns team and haven’t seen a lot of them over the past two seasons, so apologies for any erors.
The Suns will be playing a number of new players, with first-gamers and new players to the club. Izak Rankine, the number 2 draft pick from 2018, looked a certainty to play but a recent hamstring injury has delayed the start to his AFL career. Pick 3 Jack Lukosius will likely line up. ‘Brother of Max’ aka Ben King may start his career in the 2s.
The Suns are a team lacking in star-power, especially following the departure of their two most notable players in Tom Lynch and Stephen May. However, they are capable of playing some good football, and they were all over the Saints in our 2018 match at Metricon before a ridiculous last-quarter comeback (many call it the coming-of-DMac) sealed by a last minute Gresham goal gave the Saints the 4 points. They won 3 out of their first 5 last year and know how to start the season well, and they also had a good win against Sydney in round 18.
The issue facing the Suns is somewhat similar to the Saints. Going into 2019, they have no players rates as ‘elite’ and only two players rated ‘above average’, Nick Holman and Lachie Weller (Holman will likely miss this match with injury). They had no players average above 90 in Supercoach in 2018, their best performed players were Witts (88.6), Miller (88.9) and Swallow (89.9). Conversely, St Kilda’s best three were Ross (102.9), Steele (94.4) and Steven (94.6).
The Suns will have a solid team of relatively unknown players coming into the 2019 season wanting to prove the doubters wrong, so they will present a tricky opponent. Players such as Fiorini, Jack Martin and new recruit Anthony Miles (previously from Richmond) will be out to prove they belong at AFL level. The Suns have a number of good running half-backs in Hanley and Harbrow, and one of the keys to winning will be limiting these players’ run.
Potential changes
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I have assumed that Jack Steven is out but obviously he slots in there immediately if available. I have gone with Marshall as first ruck, but we may see him pushed forward with Lewis Pierce to take ruck duties. Personally, I prefer a more mobile forward line and feel this could be a point of difference for us, with the likes of Long, Parker, Lonie and Kent looking dangerous this off-season.
Logan Austin must be a good chance of a run, but I’m reading between the lines from the JLT sides and suspect that Cal Wilkie may be ahead of him. Wilkie seems like an interesting player and could be a good replacement for Roberton – good mark, nice height, he even pinch-hit in the ruck in our first match. I think he could be a keeper.
Key Match-Ups
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The backline
The losses of Roberton and Carlisle are enormous. I was impressed by the performance of our backline throughout the JLT series, we seemed more organised. The big question is, how much of this was down to the return of Roberton? Darragh Joyce looks like he’s really come on over the pre-season and may be a leader in the back line this year. He seems to have good poise and vision and competes very hard. Alongside Joyce it will be interesting to see how young Josh Battle goes in the backline, a marking forward that we’re trying to turn into an intercepting/distributing backman a la Sicily for the Hawks. I’ve liked what I’ve seen there. Essentially, our backline looks very poor on paper going into round 1, but I’m hopeful from what I’ve seen that we can still perform well in this area.
Young midfield needs to stand up
We go into this match missing Steven and Hannebery, arguably our best two midfielders. Thankfully, the Gold Coast aren’t much chop in that area themselves – they are a young midfield on paper with workmanlike players such as Touk Miller and David Swallow. Our young mids, led by Jack Steele and Seb Ross, will need to get their hands dirty and work hard here. Billings and Gresham, if transitioning into midfield roles, will also be important players in this match. Jarrod Witts is an accomplished ruckman, so young Rowan Marshall will have to play well. I have a lot of faith in Marshall – he is a hardworking player who seems determined to succeed. If he can develop the rucking side of his game, I think he presents an exciting ruck prospect going forward.
Matthew Parker
Ok, I admit I’m his player advocate, and as someone working in a remote Aboriginal Community in WA I have followed young Parker keenly since he signed for the Saints. I happened to get down to training over the summer and he really caught my eye, just looked so quick with an enormous kick to match. He has been exciting to watch so far in the JLT matches, his pressure and feistiness are infectious and he took an absolute hanger against the Dogs. I’m really hoping for a debut here, and would love to see Matthew kick a goal or two in his first run-out for the club. Think he has an exciting career ahead.
Josh Bruce
Bruce has been a bit of a forgotten figure at the Saints. He had some form issues in 2017, so perhaps his loss to injury in 2018 wasn’t noticed as much. However, between 2015-2017 Josh Bruce has been our best goal kicker, he is a very good forward who competes in the air and knows where the sticks are (well, usually, apart from the odd brainfart). I think he will be a huge inclusion this year and really look forward to having him back in the side.
Jack Billings
Billings has looked great this pre-season. He seems to have a more defined role, moving around the ground, getting involved in play where he can. There is a feeling that some fresh coaching ideas may have done wonders for him. I’m really bullish on what he can do in 2019 and look forward to him getting off to a strong start in this game.
Tip
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This game has really turned into a huge moment for our club. Injuries to key players hurt on the eve of the season. On top of that, we are already under the microscope following a deplorable 2018 campaign. How we respond here may well set the tone for the 2019 season. I still feel that we will put out a side strong enough to comfortably handle the Suns. The question-marks for me are whether the players can come out in the right headspace to win the match, and whether the game-plan we have developed over the summer can stand up to the loss of key players.
I must admit, I’m glad that the game will be played at our home ground. This should give the Saints players the confidence they need to run out on Sunday feeling motivated and confident in the systems we have put in place. Adversity brings challenges, but these types of challenges can further strengthen our group if we can rise to them.
Simon Lethlean made the bold statement a few weeks ago that we are the ‘fittest team in the comp’. In terms of injuries this is clearly not the case, but if the 22 that we put out on Sunday can outrun the Suns then we will win. There have been signs that our fitness is better this year – we have run out our two JLT games well.
With all these factors in mind, I’m backing the Saints to play a good brand of football, and to run over the Suns after a tight first half. It will be a stirring victory.
Saints by 38 points.
Thoughts?
