A Third Team In Sydney - It's Only a Matter Of Time !!

[Nugett]

Gil knocked that on the head last week because 'that's officially Giants territory'.

Gil isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, although will leave the AFL with a politician’s retirement fund, so still smarter than me at least!

I would think that the next 2 teams that would be added would be a hobart(Tasmanian) team and a Canberra team would be more logical then a third Sydney team.

Let the Giants grow the game in other areas

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Gil knocked that on the head last week because 'that's officially Giants territory'.

This is one of the reasons it was a stupid idea to get the Giants to perform double duty in Canberra. Yes, I know the Showground is locked out for a few weeks a year, it doesn't mean they have to go to Canberra for that period. The Western Sydney market is hard enough to crack without taking games away from it, and now it's a convenient excuse to sweep Canberra under the carpet in expansion talks.

No doubting the need for a truly national comp going forward, too many teams in Melbourne is the biggest barrier to truly national recognition any time soon - hard decisions arent in this AFL DNA.

I don't agree. Melbourne is about to become the most populous city in Australia. There are only four places in Australia with any serious population growth at present (Sydney, Canberra, SEQ and Melbourne/Geelong) and guess which one of those is growing fastest? Melbourne, and it isn't close.

Moving teams out of Melbourne makes absolutely no financial sense. 8 million people projected by 2050 means there will be more than enough of a potential fan base for all Melbourne teams, including North.

National recognition may give a warm and fuzzy feeling but it doesn't pay the bills. Being the 9th team in Melbourne is still going to be more financially viable than a team in Darwin.

 

[RedV3x]

Genuine acceptance outside NSW in Sydney & Q generally from my view before we can truly claim mainland coverage,

WTF are you talking about? AFL has the highest attendances per head of population in the world.
How can you get more acceptance than that ?

 

[NoobPie]

Gil isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, although will leave the AFL with a politician’s retirement fund, so still smarter than me at least!

I would think that the next 2 teams that would be added would be a hobart(Tasmanian) team and a Canberra team would be more logical then a third Sydney team.

Let the Giants grow the game in other areas

I wouldn't read a great deal into Gill's comments as having any basis in eternity.

If, as I expect reading the tea leaves, a Tasmanian team is coming in sometime in the next decade then I would say it almost certainly follows that there will also be a 20th team. (I can't see North relocating and you can't have an odd number of teams for long, let-alone a prime number)


From reading threads on the topic I would say:

-WA3 is a non goer. There is almost universal rejection of it from sandgropers, that's enough to convince me
-NT is a non goer. The distance, small population and climate combine to remove it from consideration. NQ is also a non goer
-The two clubs in Sydney is the optimal...if they grew as big and rich as West Coast and Freo, so be it

Adding a professional club into a new area is massive for growth. Adding a second club is also big as it creates a 2-team-town rivalry, doubles the interest in the competition and ensures a game in town each week on average. I think diminishing returns kick in massively after two teams. It dilutes the 2-team-town rivalry and eats into the territories of the existing teams

If I were running a book I'd have Canberra odds on for the 20th team ahead of the more radical options of Newcastle and Auckland

The academy system's are a genius if belated addition to the growth of the game in the northern states. The Swans academy rolled Sandringham under 18s last week after Sandringham had one its first 3 games in the NAB vic under 18s comp. The Giants beat the northern knights

A Canberra team would require a re-balancing of the academies in NSW / ACT perhaps on the basis below

The way the Swans are going, perhaps even this isn't sufficient.

 

[abcde12345]

I wouldn't read a great deal into Gill's comments as having any basis in eternity.

If, as I expect reading the tea leaves, a Tasmanian team is coming in sometime in the next decade then I would say it almost certainly follows that there will also be a 20th team. (I can't see North relocating and you can't have an odd number of teams for long, let-alone a prime number)


From reading threads on the topic I would say:

-WA3 is a non goer. There is almost universal rejection of it from sandgropers, that's enough to convince me
-NT is a non goer. The distance, small population and climate combine to remove it from consideration. NQ is also a non goer
-The two clubs in Sydney is the optimal...if they grew as big and rich as West Coast and Freo, so be it

Adding a professional club into a new area is massive for growth. Adding a second club is also big as it creates a 2-team-town rivalry, doubles the interest in the competition and ensures a game in town each week on average. I think diminishing returns kick in massively after two teams. It dilutes the 2-team-town rivalry and eats into the territories of the existing teams

If I were running a book I'd have Canberra odds on for the 20th team ahead of the more radical options of Newcastle and Auckland

The academy system's are a genius if belated addition to the growth of the game in the northern states. The Swans academy rolled Sandringham under 18s last week after Sandringham had one its first 3 games in the NAB vic under 18s comp. The Giants beat the northern knights

A Canberra team would require a re-balancing of the academies in NSW / ACT perhaps on the basis below

The way the Swans are going, perhaps even this isn't sufficient.




View attachment 660171

I agree with a lot of what you say in this post Noobpie. I do have some alternative views that I think are worth discussing.

I think your two team comment is pretty spot on - except for Sydney. Sydney to me seems to be super divided into its subregions, and people seem to identify a lot more strongly with these regions than the city as a whole. Considering the sheer size of the city on top of this, I definitely see Sydney as an area which will have more teams in the long term.

As I have stated in other threads, I don't think the 10 team situation in Melbourne is ideal. In a perfect world, I think the league would be set up with 4-5 really strong teams from Victoria, and an emphasis then on the second tier. I see something like this being the (very) long term goal for Sydney too. I think the AFL will look to trickle in new Sydney teams when specific yardsticks are met with the previous one.

In the situation of the Giants, I think that will be when:
-Giants are regularly getting sustainable crowds around 25k (after a stadium extension)
-The financial situation of the Giants has settled
-The Giants Academy - particularly in the West Sydney and Western NSW areas - are starting to produce AFL quality talent

Similarly, I don't think the AFL will look at Canberra until the Giants Academy is producing strong talent outside of the Riverina, and until the population has further grown to support long term crowds. Obviously to the AFL, the Giants are significantly more valuable than a Capital team would be, and significantly weakening them by removing the heartland Riverina area from their academy would definitely be something the AFL would not want to rush into.

I think what is likely to happen is that the AFL will look to expand the competition each time Sydney is ready for a new team, with the only possible exception being the inclusion of Tasmania (which might be pushed faster due to community outcry). Target areas within Sydney for future teams could include the South-Western suburbs, the Southern Suburbs (including the Illawarra), and Northern Suburbs (my money would be on the South-West if the competition is relatively sustainable - enormous growth area - similar objective to GWS at present).

With regards to Tasmania, I think the community push is starting to hit a point where it is costing the AFL a lot of goodwill. The only issue at present is that there is no real region crying out for a new team to bring in alongside it. I don't think the AFL would want to bring in any massively ambitious projects while it is still supporting GWS and GC and with the uncertainty regarding the future of television/streaming rights from this point. I also don't think the AFL wants to include a bye (although I think there are interesting strategies using byes that could massively inflate the TV viewership and therefore value to TV companies). This leaves the AFL in a tricky spot which is why I think they haven't made any definite moves either way.

Anyway, that's my take on that specific area I think.

 

[Silent Alarm]

Cronulla team that plays games in Wollongong. Or a North Sydney Oval team playing games in Newcastle.

Southern Stallions. Northern Steelers.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NoobPie]

I agree with a lot of what you say in this post Noobpie. I do have some alternative views that I think are worth discussing.

I think your two team comment is pretty spot on - except for Sydney. Sydney to me seems to be super divided into its subregions, and people seem to identify a lot more strongly with these regions than the city as a whole. Considering the sheer size of the city on top of this, I definitely see Sydney as an area which will have more teams in the long term.

As I have stated in other threads, I don't think the 10 team situation in Melbourne is ideal. In a perfect world, I think the league would be set up with 4-5 really strong teams from Victoria, and an emphasis then on the second tier. I see something like this being the (very) long term goal for Sydney too. I think the AFL will look to trickle in new Sydney teams when specific yardsticks are met with the previous one.

In the situation of the Giants, I think that will be when:
-Giants are regularly getting sustainable crowds around 25k (after a stadium extension)
-The financial situation of the Giants has settled
-The Giants Academy - particularly in the West Sydney and Western NSW areas - are starting to produce AFL quality talent

Similarly, I don't think the AFL will look at Canberra until the Giants Academy is producing strong talent outside of the Riverina, and until the population has further grown to support long term crowds. Obviously to the AFL, the Giants are significantly more valuable than a Capital team would be, and significantly weakening them by removing the heartland Riverina area from their academy would definitely be something the AFL would not want to rush into.

I think what is likely to happen is that the AFL will look to expand the competition each time Sydney is ready for a new team, with the only possible exception being the inclusion of Tasmania (which might be pushed faster due to community outcry). Target areas within Sydney for future teams could include the South-Western suburbs, the Southern Suburbs (including the Illawarra), and Northern Suburbs (my money would be on the South-West if the competition is relatively sustainable - enormous growth area - similar objective to GWS at present).

With regards to Tasmania, I think the community push is starting to hit a point where it is costing the AFL a lot of goodwill. The only issue at present is that there is no real region crying out for a new team to bring in alongside it. I don't think the AFL would want to bring in any massively ambitious projects while it is still supporting GWS and GC and with the uncertainty regarding the future of television/streaming rights from this point. I also don't think the AFL wants to include a bye (although I think there are interesting strategies using byes that could massively inflate the TV viewership and therefore value to TV companies). This leaves the AFL in a tricky spot which is why I think they haven't made any definite moves either way.

Anyway, that's my take on that specific area I think.

I agree that ideally you would have extra teams in Sydney over time I'm just not certain the cost of pursuing that outcome will be less than the marginal benefits. I don't know Sydney or the NRL that well but it seems to me that clubs on the extremities (particularly Manly and the Sharks, less the pseudo-casino backed Penrith) are those who have their viability questioned.

I certainly agree on both the Giants academy development and TV rights as a thresh hold for when you would add a Canberra team. This is part of the reason I reckon we are still the best part of a decade away from adding new teams and also why I split the riverina in that map

Ultimately though a third club anywhere in NSW / ACT will necessarily result in a further splitting of the academy zones

 

[Aucklander]

Is the reference where it states East Sydney became (after a merger with Paddington) Eastern Suburbs in 1926 wrong?

Link

East Sydney Australian Football Club is a NSWFL Australian Football foundation club based out of the Sydney eastern suburbs in New South Wales.

The club formed in 1880 as the first Australian Rules club in New South Wales, participating in the NSWAFA in 1881. The Sydney Morning Herald report on 12 August 1880 states, "A meeting was held on Tuesday night at the Cambridge Club hotel, Oxford street, to organise a club under the New South Wales Football Association".[1]

This would mean that the East Sydney Australian Football club, if one puts aside the mergers and name changes that have occurred (now known as the Uni of NSW-Eastern Suburbs Bulldogs) is older than all but one other current major football club of any code in Sydney (that being Sydney University Football (rugby) Club). This club pre-dates all Australian rugby league clubs by over 25 years, the Randwick rugby union team and all known soccer clubs.[2]

By the 1920s, East Sydney had become one of the most successful clubs in Sydney, along with Paddington Australian Football Club. In 1926, it merged with the Paddington club to become the Eastern Suburbs Australian Football Club.

The home ground for East Sydney Football Club was Trumper Park in Paddington and they played in the colours of blue with red and white hoops.

Later this club again merged with the University club to become the Uni-NSW Eastern Suburbs Bulldogs AFC.

 

[abcde12345]

You made a statement. Iv'e just asked you to back it up with facts.
The NFL is played solely on a professional level in a country with a population of around 350 million and they take games to London, where they sell out games within hours of tickets going on sale.
We are played solely professional here with population of 25 million and take one game a year to China where to be honest you can more or less count the crowd.

I didn't make any statement. The person you are responding to prefaced their statement as an opinion, and they compared to the ARL, not the NRL.

If you are asking about my internet search trends statement, that can be seen here: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=/m/0ckh09,/m/01lwy5

I don't think anyone is saying that Professional Rugby League is more prevalent overseas, the only statements I see are about how the AFL compared to the ARL (Not NRL) have performed overseas. I would personally disagree with the initial claim that the AFL is performing admirably. I think Australian Football is performing amazingly overseas, considering the neglect from the AFL in pretty much all growth except for China and previously South Africa for a flash in the pan.

But this isn't relevant, this is a thread about Sydney, not overseas.

 

[abcde12345]

Link to back up your claim about internet searches?

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=/m/0ckh09,/m/01lwy5

This is over the past five years.

 

[Aussie in exile]

I didn't make any statement. The person you are responding to prefaced their statement as an opinion, and they compared to the ARL, not the NRL.

If you are asking about my internet search trends statement, that can be seen here: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=/m/0ckh09,/m/01lwy5

I don't think anyone is saying that Professional Rugby League is more prevalent overseas, the only statements I see are about how the AFL compared to the ARL (Not NRL) have performed overseas. I would personally disagree with the initial claim that the AFL is performing admirably. I think Australian Football is performing amazingly overseas, considering the neglect from the AFL in pretty much all growth except for China and previously South Africa for a flash in the pan.

But this isn't relevant, this is a thread about Sydney, not overseas.

The real test for me is when we have a professional club outside of Australia, and when we have have more 18 a side comps played on ovals. Not 9 a side played on soccer fields

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

It once was but I would say, based on attendances, participation and active support, cricket has clearly been overtaken by our game over the last 20 years. There are now more participants all over the country, including even NSW and Qld, which has seen tremendous growth and can now boast around 70 AFL listed players and growing year by year. And apart from cricket, there's no other rival in sight.

Not sure that a few mainly social teams made up mostly by ex-pats has any relevance. But not before its parent game of rugby union (from which rugby league split from), which at the time, thanks mainly to pro-British sentiment in the public schools in NSW/Qld, became established first to the exclusion of the Australian game. It's now great to see our game flourishing so much at grass roots levels in both states.

Nup.

The "Eaton game" is older than aussie rules and the "parent" of it in fact. They were never competitors in the 1800's though, that's just wrong. AFL evokvedfrom Rugby.

In fact if you can look past the shape of the oval and the way the no offside rule has developed it has more in common with Rugby than Rugby League does in my view.

 

[NoobPie]

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=/m/0ckh09,/m/01lwy5

This is over the past five years.

My god this is brutal soul destroying for all the little rugby league trolls no doubt reading this thread - In England - where the only other significant professional density of rugby league exists - the AFL is searched 70% more often than the NRL. Ouch!

 

[abcde12345]

I agree that ideally you would have extra teams in Sydney over time I'm just not certain the cost of pursuing that outcome will be less than the marginal benefits. I don't know Sydney or the NRL that well but it seems to me that clubs on the extremities (particularly Manly and the Sharks, less the pseudo-casino backed Penrith) are those who have their viability questioned.

I certainly agree on both the Giants academy development and TV rights as a thresh hold for when you would add a Canberra team. This is part of the reason I reckon we are still the best part of a decade away from adding new teams and also why I split the riverina in that map

Ultimately though a third club anywhere in NSW / ACT will necessarily result in a further splitting of the academy zones

I can definitely understand this point of view. It's why strict thresholds would have to be put in place before further expansion occurs. Also, I think if GWS was based further west at Blacktown like originally planned, it would be able to represent more of the region better.

I had a quick look on google maps, and in the South-West growth corridor (I'm using Campbelltown as a proxy, similar numbers for Liverpool etc though) you're looking at roughly an hour of driving to get to the GWS home ground - longer by public transport. It's similar time from Geelong to the MCG. Factor in the fact that the area is not a "hardcore" footy place where people will travel by the droves for hours to see their team, and the cultural differences between Melbourne and Sydney (a lot more "stuff the city yuppies" kind of attitude - more regional rivalry), and I think that, over the long term, it's a huge strategic area that I doubt the AFL would want to miss.

I can see, once the thresholds I outlined above are fulfilled, a team representing the Macarthur and South-West area could come into play (for reference, Macarthur has almost the population of Canberra already, and is projected to overtake Canberra's population within about 15 years). This team could absorb the Capital and Riverina regional zones.

It would take an enormous amount of groundwork though, and I think GWS is a long way off of those threshold milestones already (thinking 30 years at least). Massive grassroots movements need to be worked in, and I think there should be more preparation for the team coming in than previously.

 

[abcde12345]

Nup.

The "Eaton game" is older than aussie rules and the "parent" of it in fact. They were never competitors in the 1800's though, that's just wrong. AFL evokvedfrom Rugby.

In fact if you can look past the shape of the oval and the way the no offside rule has developed it has more in common with Rugby than Rugby League does in my view.

I honestly agree with this. Think it's a big reason for the decline in RU and the success of the Swans.

 

[abcde12345]

The real test for me is when we have a professional club outside of Australia, and when we have have more 18 a side comps played on ovals. Not 9 a side played on soccer fields

Agreed, but I don't think the AFL is in a big rush for it either TBH. Gaining more and more relevance in the Northern States seem to be the big underlying objective the AFL has had and continues to have for a long time now.

 

[NoobPie]

Just don't type in Rugby into your stupid little comparison. Or your little fantasy world would come crashing down.......

But that is a bit unfair of a comparison. After all, a lot of Americans think Aussie Rules is Rugby......

You clearly overlooked both your oft broken commitment not to engage with me.....and more importantly the rugby league troll who specifically interrupted a discussion about adding another AFL club in to Sydney to ask for an international AFL v NRL comparison.

Far from crashing my little fantasy world, these comparisons are pleasantly massively exceeding my expectations

Here is the AFL against the major rugby competitions over the last 5 years in the US




At least against those 4, the AFL has had more searched interest than those leagues / tournaments combined over a 5 year period in the US. In fact, it has so in every state. Now, I'm sure some of this is driven by VPNs and the like, but

Of course rugby is a more well known and played sport in the US, and probably a majority of americans have either not heard of the game or think it is rugby. But still

...any way, nobody goes home empty handed, even an obsessive bore like yourself who can't follow through with promises not to respond to other posters you clearly dislike....

...here are some randomly selected sporting competitions by Tasmanian interest....

 

[RedV3x]

Let's get this thread back on track.

The Eastern Suburbs were the heart od Australian Football when it started in the 19th century and again when the NSWFL league was formed in 1903.
East Sydney played and has always played at Trumper Oval where they erected a stadium and fence to collect admittance to the ground.
Speaking to old-timers in the 1970s attendances were much larger with grand finals about 15,000 people.
North Shore and inner west teams were other areas integral to the NSWFL.

The biggest affect on football and sport in general was the introduction of colour television where dominant sports became even more dominant.
Colour television indirectly played an important factor in the introduction of the Sydney Swans. The Sydney Swans certainly boosted the profile of Australian Football not only in Sydney but around the world. (Americans saw the Swans 50% of the time on cable). On the negative side the AFL Swans did take some patronige away from the SFL and it is generally agreed that the Swans underformed w.r.t. advancing grassoots football.

The next biggest affect was the introduction of GWS. I don't know if is co-incidence or a latent effect but grassroots numbers have soared since the beginning of the introduction of GWS. There is no comparison with the current situation and the situation that existed in the 1970s w.r.t. grassroots. The Manly peninsula has exploded with teams and facilities. The Eastern suburbs has resurected old teams like Newtown and built new powerhouses like Maroubra. There is a lot of grassroots Australian Football being played virtually everywhere these days.

The next biggest affect on Australian Football in Sydney, NSW, Australia and the world has been the introduction of AFLW. The AFLW has been an outstanding success and an outstanding success in boosting participation virtually everywhere.

I could mount an argument for a third team in Sydney. It could be North Sydney - even playing out of an upgraded North Sydney OVal. I don't think that will happen. I think it is more probable to start playing the odd AFL game at Newcastle and Wollongong than looking at a 3rd AFL team in Sydney.

 

[Aucklander]

Yeah it'd be nice if the personal attacks could stop. Same with the random international talk. Thread is on a third team in Sydney - discussion somewhat relevant to that would be nice.

Agreed.

It was interesting reading about East Sydney (after further online reading) as they became known again in 1969. Their ground reminds me of a couple of the grounds in the RDFNL.

Some cool pics here.

Certainly makes you appreciate the history a little more.

 

[RedV3x]

Certainly makes you appreciate the history a little more.

This is Trumper Oval, the home ground to East Sydney as I remember it the 1970s.
It's not Eastern Suburbs, it's not the Uni. There is a stadium and a crowd.

 

[Gigantor]

I saw a game of footy at Trumper Oval in the early 90s (coincidentally between East Sydney and Sydney Uni). Fantastic spot, pretty much walking distance from the CBD. I recall a metal arch at the entry to the ground which had the year of establishment of the club, and if I remember correctly the year was around the early 1890s.

 

[RedV3x]

I saw a game of footy at Trumper Oval in the early 90s (coincidentally between East Sydney and Sydney Uni). Fantastic spot, pretty much walking distance from the CBD. I recall a metal arch at the entry to the ground which had the year of establishment of the club, and if I remember correctly the year was around the early 1890s.

In the 1990s a lot of infrastructure of a professional football club had been dismantled by a yuppy council.
Trumper Oval was a popular and convenient place in the earlier times when people walked.
It is equivalent to walking to the SCG. The SCG was offered to the NSWFL but they declined because of the high rent.
It's impossible to mistake the features of East Sydney's then Trumper Oval - large stand, gates, fences, location, crowds, brawls and traditional league structure with the features of UNSW's Whalers - open ground, no facilities, picket fence, main road location and modest divisional structure. The East Sydney Bulldogs always played out of Trumper Oval in a traditional league, ressies, colts structure.
i cannot remember East Sydney Bulldogs ever venturing to UNSW even for pre-season etc which it would have to be.
Pre-season was at Centennial Park which is walking distance from Trumper Oval.

 

[RedV3x]

R 4 - 21 May 1978 Western Suburbs v East Sydney at Trumper Park




East Sydney played Western Suburbs in five consecutive Grand Finals from 1971-1975, which were highlighted by all-in brawls at the beginning of each match.

 

[RedV3x]

R 4 - 21 May 1978 Western Suburbs v East Sydney at Trumper Park

This footage has many East Bulldogs 'characters' but there there is one very significant element that appears early in the footage.
Kwality, Auckland, Noobie or anyone - can you see the big link to national and international competition?

EDIT: It's amazing that some people who are so prolific in their post and profess to know and in fact played in a certain team cannot offer any comment on some historical media. There is a very special person in this footage that is quite prominent. Any East's people, SFL supporters of the time and many thousands of others would know this person.

 

[RedV3x]

The 1970s was a good decade for Australian Football in Sydney and especially East Sydney Bulldogs.


Bill Skipper played in this 1970 representative Sydney side and many others. 1971 Sydney defeated a combined VFL reserves.


Mark Maclure recruited from East Sydney in 1973 and went straight into Carlton VFL.



In 1972 NSW played Queensland and the 'record" records BILL SKIPPER . . Known as the "Body Beautiful" or Mr. Paddington. 4th Represtitive game.