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Game Day Changes & Pre-match Discussion - RD 19 vs. Fremantle. Sun 20/07 @ 3:15pm (MCG)

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It makes absolute sense that we want everything to go right in our premiership campaigns . Resting on laurels that Collingwood travels well is an arrogant thought process.

Top two is where we want to be to maximise the chances of a QF win and a week off.
I have never said we should not aim for Top 2.
I’m simply saying our interstate record would give every supporter confidence that we can still win flag from 3rd or 4th position.
 
Looking at the ladder it’s probably only Adelaide that can knock us out of the top two as they have an extra win over the field. ( Arguably GC too but we have a percentage advantage over them)

Beating Fremantle will take us a long way there. After beating Richmond we will maintain that two games buffer on Adelaide with four games left. Unfortunately we have no percentage advantage over them.

Then we have three consecutive “ eight point games” that will dictate our fate. Win one of them and top two is a near lock….win two of them and it’s almost a certainty regardless of beating Melbourne in the last round.

We’d want to go into the Crows away game with top two locked up. Wouldn’t be fun facing them away if top two was at stake in the second last round of the year.

So for mine the non negotiables are wins against Freo, Richmond, Hawthorn and Melbourne. Even better if we knock off the Crows but as I said, by the time we get to that game the ideal scenario is that we are a mathematical lock,
We'll finish top 4. I think we should prioritise being the best team we can be in the finals. And if that results in an away qualifying final against the Crows, so be it.

If you're the best team in finals you can win it from anywhere. And if we can't beat Adelaide in Adelaide in a qualifying final or get into the GF through the double chance route having done what's required to be as good as we can in September - then we weren't good enough to win it.

I think we'll win enough games to get the home qualifying final anyway, but that shouldn't be prioritised over being as good as possible in September. To me the bigger issue is the risk of injury when loading up players to get them as fit as possible for September. That's the bit we need to get right.
 
I have never said we should not aim for Top 2.
I’m simply saying our interstate record would give every supporter confidence that we can still win flag from 3rd or 4th position.

You kinda implied ( at least to me) there’s no difference between 1st and 4th though, and I refute that. Of course we want home finals because we have a better chance of winning home finals .

I’ll leave it at that.
 
We'll finish top 4. I think we should prioritise being the best team we can be in the finals. And if that results in an away qualifying final against the Crows, so be it.

If you're the best team in finals you can win it from anywhere. And if we can't beat Adelaide in Adelaide in a qualifying final or get into the GF through the double chance route having done what's required to be as good as we can in September - then we weren't good enough to win it.

I think we'll win enough games to get the home qualifying final anyway, but that shouldn't be prioritised over being as good as possible in September. To me the bigger issue is the risk of injury when loading up players to get them as fit as possible for September. That's the bit we need to get right.

Agree the goal is to be as good as we can be in September. By the same token, by the time the Brisbane game rolls around in two weeks, that’s approx the time on the calendar that you would ordinarily stop resting players and instead pick your absolute best 23 available, and send your depth players back to the VFL. Hopefully we are 16-3 going into that game, and top four is locked, and top two becomes the target.
 
generally theres two types of form lines for premiers
1) dominate early season, taper off back half of year, get cherry ripe and get the job done in finals
2) break even for first 8- 12 rounds, then click into gear, build momentum, and barely drop another game

Brisbane have been largely the same team for the last 5 years. Very talented, thereabouts, low footy IQ coaching and tactics, and somewhat mentally brittle . While they have been improving over the years, last year was more about things going their way in finals - carlton crap, GWS choking, and sydney losing the plot

Id be more worried about the type 2 teams - GWS and adelaide - only because these teams sometimes discover a new level by end of year that they havent reached before

on exposed form, weve got everyone covered, everywhere - but thats not to say we necessarily win on the day. we still have some chinks ion the armour that can be exposed on the day
 
They almost lost the match against a team with a very ordinary defence. Bad kicking is bad football, so they say. I wouldn't have called that flying.
Yep. We don't say Carlton should have won when they fluff chances by missing 6 inside 50 kicks they should have made - we say they're shit. But we seem to view kicking for goal as being unlucky.
 

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generally theres two types of form lines for premiers
1) dominate early season, taper off back half of year, get cherry ripe and get the job done in finals
2) break even for first 8- 12 rounds, then click into gear, build momentum, and barely drop another game

Brisbane have been largely the same team for the last 5 years. Very talented, thereabouts, low footy IQ coaching and tactics, and somewhat mentally brittle . While they have been improving over the years, last year was more about things going their way in finals - carlton crap, GWS choking, and sydney losing the plot

Id be more worried about the type 2 teams - GWS and adelaide - only because these teams sometimes discover a new level by end of year that they havent reached before

on exposed form, weve got everyone covered, everywhere - but thats not to say we necessarily win on the day. we still have some chinks ion the armour that can be exposed on the day
GWS is the one - great backline and forward line, and well Coached.
They are the real threat IMO.
 
They almost lost the match against a team with a very ordinary defence. Bad kicking is bad football, so they say. I wouldn't have called that flying.
We know Hipwood can miss from anywhere.
 

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generally theres two types of form lines for premiers
1) dominate early season, taper off back half of year, get cherry ripe and get the job done in finals
2) break even for first 8- 12 rounds, then click into gear, build momentum, and barely drop another game

Brisbane have been largely the same team for the last 5 years. Very talented, thereabouts, low footy IQ coaching and tactics, and somewhat mentally brittle . While they have been improving over the years, last year was more about things going their way in finals - carlton crap, GWS choking, and sydney losing the plot

Id be more worried about the type 2 teams - GWS and adelaide - only because these teams sometimes discover a new level by end of year that they havent reached before

on exposed form, weve got everyone covered, everywhere - but thats not to say we necessarily win on the day. we still have some chinks ion the armour that can be exposed on the day

Interesting. I think we share characteristics of both categories. I think clearly we have dominated early season, and it could perhaps be argued are currently undergoing a slight taper off (seen in WC and GC games, but hopefully goes no longer), but we could also be in the 2nd category because I feel like we haven't fully clicked into gear, due to the fact that our best 23 is still unclear, and when it finally crystallises there will be another gear. The coaching of our team is so good that all players know their role and we won't require time for players to sync or comprehend their individual task in the whole.
 
Barrett is spot on, Freo’s game to lose
TBH, if they don't win (from their perspective) it is pretty much a calamity because they are virtually at full strength, and we are missing not only half our preferred defence,but also an electric small forward and a Mr September midfield gun.

If they can't win against us in these circumstances on the G, then pretty much they never will.

We can expect them to absolutely go for broke in this game. because if we win, we will go a long way to breaking their belief.

But we'll be ready for it. Absolutely up for the challenge. The feedback on the first half of the GC game will be ringing in our guys' ears.

I really am not so worried about them exposing the absences in our defence. Of their talls, I only rate Treacey as a serious threat.

I also really rate our defence, which is a team effort more than the sum of individuals. I think part of Darcy C's mission on the day will be to follow Jackson wherever, so he will find himself intercepting in our D50.

Cox will I believe play almost like a first ruckman to give Darcy C the chance to reinforce the backline - if we need to.


I am far more concerned about the midfield battle. We need to prevent the Brayshaw -Serong combination from gaining any ascendancy. Also the sight of Frederick running through the corridor is scary, so we need to ensure that we defend the corridor grimly. That is part of our team defence, which is what has been the fundamental reason for our position on the ladder.

If we hold our own in the midfield, I am sure we can win because our forward line is potent, and they are missing their captain who is also a key in their defence.

The balance in the midfield I feel is something that we still have not perfected. We have so many combinations and options that we are still formulating the midfield strategy. This is part of the reason that I think we have not yet clicked into full gear this season.

Will be an electric contest, I think. I believe that we can and will break Freo hearts due to:
a) the brilliance of our coaches in understanding the midfield issues and in galvanising the defence under adverse circumstances
b) the synergy of our team, their understanding of the game plan and their ability to execute their roles, and their will to win.
c) it's at the G.
 
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