Unofficial Preview 2025 Hawk's Hypothetical Trade Discussion...now with added DFA spitballing!

[Strapping Young Lad]

This thread is becoming increasingly popular, and to keep some sort of order, we will have some….

Rules of engagement:

1. Bring valid news or links to Twitter posts from notable sources. Don’t post screenshots or “some bloke just said on SEN” or what some “trade whisperer” has posted on a Facebook page.

2. Ignore what other team boards are putting up as trade offers. Don’t quote or bring them here either.

3. Don’t post “buckle up” for the lols.

4. If you can’t say anything nice about Worpel or CJ, don’t say anything at all. The continued slaps and backhanders are just going to be deleted.

 

[VandoHawk]

1/ It’s part of a bigger trade, Serong to North so 25 is their pick, not ours. Bulter would be for your own 2R back.

2/ Fair enough on Merrett, seems to be quite polarising among Hawks fans as to what you’re prepared to give up for him.

I think we'd try and push for 19 for Butler rather than 33. He had a really good finals series. You do have the PSD option, but he won't screw the club after we looked after his injury. You could argue that's overs but (and I'm not being snarky here) lower achieving teams tend to overpay to bring talent in.

I actually think he's worth significantly more than Serong, who I doubt we're getting more than a third rounder for. If North offer Pick 25 I'm taking it and running.

On Merrett. If you look at a history of trades, no player in the modern era aged 28 or over has commanded the equivalent of 2 firsts and a player.

The closest two are:

• Bryce Gibbs (age 28): 10, 16, F2, 73 for Gibbs, F2, F3, 77.
• Dayne Beams (age 28): 18, F1, 56 to Brisbane for Beams, 41, 44.

Both of these trades went terribly but that's tangential. The price Essendon and the media want for Merrett is equivalent to players like Neale, Dunkley, Taranto etc. who were all in their prime when traded.

I keep hearing that 8 + F1 + Hustwaite is not enough. Merrett is a quality player but he is going to be 31. How long he can maintain his level is a guessing game.

However, he's also Essendon's best player and contracted captain. They have to make strong demands. It's why I still think this trade doesn't get done unless Essendon bend the knee.

 

[eldorado]

Not Google AI but Grok gave me this:

Anal cysts like Cal Twomey and Tom Morris frame it as "Merrett or Petracca," not both

I have corrected Grok appropriately...

 

[TazHawk15]

We have offered better money and I believe Butler has indicated that he wants to spend some time in the midfield, which is unlikely to happen at Hawthorn and so is still deciding what his priorities are.

Two questions:

1/ Would Hawthorn trade Butler and Serong for picks 25 and 39?

2/ Would Hawthorn trade Pick 10, MacKenzie and Hustwaite for Merrett?

It would want to be a truck load more money for anyone to go from a contender to a club that is monumentally bad onfield.

 

[seysearles]

• Bryce Gibbs (age 28): 10, 16, F2, 73 for Gibbs, F2, F3, 77.
• Dayne Beams (age 28): 18, F1, 56 to Brisbane for Beams, 41, 44.

Both of these trades went terribly but that's tangential.

Is it though? It shows the risk involved with older players who have a cliff somewhere on their relatively near horizon. Seeing those 2 names scares the bajeezus out of me and just reinforces my concerns about being forced into a postion where we sell the farm. Beams was probably in the same bracket as Merrett in terms of his playing ability when he was traded (albeit 2yrs younger). I'm fully onboard with bringing Merret in but i sincerely hope that the club is holding hard to its starting bid of #8 with the maximum sweetener being an additional F2 or a HH/Serong.

 

[The Chad and I]

This is just an astonishing take. Maybe if it was the start of the season, but given we’ve seen what he contributed this year, and how we were able to spin a pick upgrade this year to 8 from it, I just don’t know how you can say it was anything but a successful trade.

The risk in this trade is not in the first 2 seasons.
Barrass was obviously a class player to get into the team.

He was brought in to help us win a premiership, and while the team couldn't do that this season, the risk of the trade rolls over into a smaller window of opportunity.

If we had won it this season I would have said the price paid to get him was a gamble which paid off.
You can't argue with success. The risk on this trade is still alive.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Nah did you listen to them, they were saying that in regards to if Hawthorn can get the Merrett deal done and that it will take a lot to get it done, and if they can keep Petracca on the hook so we can pivot to him if Essendon ask for to much, as we don't want to miss out on both, nothing about we want both yet.

By the sheer fact that he has said “how long do they keep both Merrett and Petracca on the hook” they know we are into both.

 

[Ashman23]

My two cents, because it's Hawthorn is a MAJOR part in the Merrett deal. I can see for this very reason Essendon not even engaging in talks day one.

They'll plan to stall and hold everything up to **** us over.

If this plays out, I'd be seeking arbitration day two of trade week.

 

[Lickmesocks]

This is correct. It’s likely eagles will still try and trade, but our leverage will be minimal given the threat of PSD, ie Brockman

No chance he is doing the dirty on Hawthorn after we have rehabilitated him and got him into the senior side this season.

 

[hawkmang]

If this is what we’re getting on day 1 on trade radio… it’s going to be a long slog

 

[Bugs1977]

By the sheer fact that he has said “how long do they keep both Merrett and Petracca on the hook” they know we are into both.

I thought EXACTLY the same thing when I heard that

 

[Lickmesocks]

By the sheer fact that he has said “how long do they keep both Merrett and Petracca on the hook” they know we are into both.

A lot more will make sense later this week after Essendons best and fairest.

 

[mustang]

By the sheer fact that he has said “how long do they keep both Merrett and Petracca on the hook” they know we are into both.

Why does it his reference, was to what happens when another club won't just wait for Hawthorn to make a decision on Petracca and they swoop in and take him and we miss out on everyone.

 

[lyger]

View attachment 2441305

If this is what we’re getting on day 1 on trade radio… it’s going to be a long slog

I don’t think the Crows would trade Rachele unless he is disgruntled?

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

If this is what we’re getting on day 1 on trade radio… it’s going to be a long slog

Its Josh Jenkins

I dont like to be too mean if I can help it but the guy is a genuine idiot.

 

[Hawkk]

Its Josh Jenkins

I dont like to be too mean if I can help it but the guy is a genuine idiot.

Has strong Jonathan Brown CTE vibes

 

[eldorado]

View attachment 2441305

If this is what we’re getting on day 1 on trade radio… it’s going to be a long slog

That's up there with the idiot deals they're pushing for Merrett..

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[eldorado]

Its Josh Jenkins

I dont like to be too mean if I can help it but the guy is a genuine idiot.

Sad but true...

It annoys me that for every Nathan Buckley, we have to listen to 10 Josh Jenkins...

 

[eaglevision]

I think we'd try and push for 19 for Butler rather than 33. He had a really good finals series. You do have the PSD option, but he won't screw the club after we looked after his injury. You could argue that's overs but (and I'm not being snarky here) lower achieving teams tend to overpay to bring talent in.

I actually think he's worth significantly more than Serong, who I doubt we're getting more than a third rounder for. If North offer Pick 25 I'm taking it and running.

On Merrett. If you look at a history of trades, no player in the modern era aged 28 or over has commanded the equivalent of 2 firsts and a player.

The closest two are:

• Bryce Gibbs (age 28): 10, 16, F2, 73 for Gibbs, F2, F3, 77.
• Dayne Beams (age 28): 18, F1, 56 to Brisbane for Beams, 41, 44.

Both of these trades went terribly but that's tangential. The price Essendon and the media want for Merrett is equivalent to players like Neale, Dunkley, Taranto etc. who were all in their prime when traded.

I keep hearing that 8 + F1 + Hustwaite is not enough. Merrett is a quality player but he is going to be 31. How long he can maintain his level is a guessing game.

However, he's also Essendon's best player and contracted captain. They have to make strong demands. It's why I still think this trade doesn't get done unless Essendon bend the knee.

The overs for Serong but unders for Butler is part of the bigger picture which is why I asked about them as a package, probably about right in balance for the both of them. No offence taken, you’re probably right about squeezing for overs and our club doesn’t use the PSD threat. See Brockman.

As for Merrett at the end of the day it’s Essendon’s prerogative to set the value of their contracted captain. Pick 9/10 isn’t as strong in this draft as previous drafts and you’d have to assume your F1 holds roughly the same value as it does this year at around 15.

Merrett will be freshly 30 come trade period. The best lens to look at it is probably on paper would you have accepted 10, F15 and Hustwaite for a freshly 30yo Luke Hodge? I reckon you would have asked for more.

In saying that the Hawks were contending but if I was Essendon currently I’d be trading out every single asset that has hit free agency age and going to the draft(s) and/or getting younger players.

His value will only decrease from here. Blues 1R, CMac/Haw F1 and Hustwaite is probably the best deal they’ll get for Merrett. I’d take it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Why does it his reference, was to what happens when another club won't just wait for Hawthorn to make a decision on Petracca and they swoop in and take him and we miss out on everyone.

Because clubs haven’t been able to ever split themselves across multiple targets and trade in two players in one off season, have they?

Do you think the HFC is run by morons?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

As for Merrett at the end of the day it’s Essendon’s prerogative to set the value of their contracted captain. Pick 9/10 isn’t as strong in this draft as previous drafts and you’d have to assume your F1 holds roughly the same value as it does this year at around 15

That’s where Duursma comes in.

 

[eaglevision]

That’s where Duursma comes in.

Yep. The bigger trade has both Z and W Duursma (pick 1) going to the Bombers and the Carlton 1R from Hawthorn going to the Kangaroos.

 

[seysearles]

View attachment 2441305

If this is what we’re getting on day 1 on trade radio… it’s going to be a long slog

Im offended on Adelaide's behalf to see this drivel

Would Merrett be the first person in history to be praying not to win his club bnf?

 

[BuddwaGOAT]

Essendon supporters sure to be in the replies trying to make out like it was Hawthorn/Mitchell that leaked the meeting.

Doesn't take much critical thinking to realise it was 100% Merrett’s camp that released that info (and why).

Genuine nuffies

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yep. The bigger trade has both Z and W Duursma (pick 1) going to the Bombers and the Carlton 1R from Hawthorn going to the Kangaroos.

Not quite.