Unofficial Preview 2025 Hawk's Hypothetical Trade Discussion...now with added DFA spitballing!

[Strapping Young Lad]

This thread is becoming increasingly popular, and to keep some sort of order, we will have some….

Rules of engagement:

1. Bring valid news or links to Twitter posts from notable sources. Don’t post screenshots or “some bloke just said on SEN” or what some “trade whisperer” has posted on a Facebook page.

2. Ignore what other team boards are putting up as trade offers. Don’t quote or bring them here either.

3. Don’t post “buckle up” for the lols.

4. If you can’t say anything nice about Worpel or CJ, don’t say anything at all. The continued slaps and backhanders are just going to be deleted.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

If we end up trading out of the 1st round over the next 3 drafts we need to really start to get hit after hit in the free agency market.

It may have been a pipe dream but Butters is basically gone anyway if we can't keep our futures - expect Port will match and force a trade

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Essendon on the other hand are in the shit possible of watching time tick down and then actually keeping the guy they hate.

So they keep him strip him if captaincy, spray paint slurs on his locker and have the fans boo him every game. Then he wins another bnf for them in a 5 win season and they miss the chance to develop their youth or bring in talent. In 2 years he leaves as a free agent and they go backwards again.

Keeping him is a terrible result for Essendon. Worse than him leaving for pick 53 like stringer.

Exactly. They are only looking at the situation they find themselves in solely from not trading Merrett. Ignoring what will likely transpire in 2 years.

Compromised Tassie drafts.

Getting nothing for Merrett.

Wasting 2 years of development leading to unbalanced list demographic etc.

Starting a full blown rebuild

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

A bit negative considering the great (IMO) job our list management has done.
Merrett is a required contracted captain and fills a clear pressing need for us, and it needs to be more than the usual fair deal.
I think 9, 14ish, HH and another Fringe player (not Frenchie) is what it will take and trust the club to do what is needed for success.

Yeah agree that 2 top ~10 picks and a player that slots into Essendon's 22 should be more than enough

looking back we see that the Wingard and O'Meara deals were basically less than that for similar/higher-value players, but also worth noting that player value has inflated alongside salaries and due to the ease of getting players through academies, F+S, extra list spots, AFL assistance and so on

Ess can sell they get a best 22 player for the next several seasons while also getting two top 10 picks they can try and bundle for their Duursma collection, or to trade into the future and try get a Reid/Bailey/Humper (not actually them) type next off-season

that's what it's all about. optics. We've heard from so many independent sources that Merrett won't return to Essendon under any circumstances – could be an exaggeration but there's no doubting he wants out, and wants out bad. Ess just need something to sell to their members. I don't think they actually want Zach back.

 

[TazHawk15]

My mail is Merrett to request a trade this weekend.

The deal will look something like Mackenzie AND Hustwaite, pick 9 and a F1 for Merrett and a F2.

Humphrey won’t be this year.

Things are fluid so take this with a grain of salt

Take out Frenchie and maybe it’s a deal.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

after Butters was playing golf with some of the Ess boys the other day maybe that's the pipe dream everyone leans into to get the deal done

Essendon fans can live off Butter-fuelled copium for the next 12 months (great) and we get Merrett without giving up Frenchie and Lewis (also great)

 

[The Chad and I]

Been enjoying reading the Hawks forum across the year and have been a daily reader of this thread as we near the moving days of trade period.

No info, just option from me.

Just thought I'd post regarding Mackenzie, as I can't see it's been raised by anyone.

Preface by saying like most, I see a 200 gamer here and hope we keep him. However, it's important to note that he's out of contact next year and there has been reported rumblings from his management already this year regarding opportunity.

If Sam and the club aren't convinced he's a regular best 23 next year, well, we won't get much back if he's still been mostly playing at Box Hill and out of contract. In this context I'll back the club if he's moved this year, given his value may be less than we all think.

On Merrett, he's a dead set star with plenty of great footy ahead. Not sure why when we're on the cusp of another premiership run people are getting so caught up on winning the trade versus what a fit Day and Merrett does for us in the next 3 years.

Let Essendon "win" trade period. We will just take their greatest player of the modern era and go win a flag.

If we don't win a premiership in the next two seasons then our midfield is screwed in the absence of another Newcombe type lucky pick, or a FA recruit.

Merrett's quality is not in doubt.
Giving up so much for Merrett is an enormous gamble we won't recover from easily if it doesn't come off.

2 first round picks plus a former first round pick.
FML that is desperate.

That could get any midfielder in the competition, yet we hitch our wagon to a 30 year old.

 

[unitedhawk2]

Day isn’t going to HB

I hope you're right - but it contradicts what some others, supposedly in the know, have postulated.

 

[hardway]

It may have been a pipe dream but Butters is basically gone anyway if we can't keep our futures - expect Port will match and force a trade

The big unknown is where port finish next year. Bottom 4 and a match would be less likely. I don’t think Butters is interested in the hawks.

 

[Burtman]

The big unknown is where port finish next year. Bottom 4 and a match would be less likely. I don’t think Butters is interested in the hawks.

Butters is worth 2x top 5 picks and probably more. 100% they match any deal

 

[To the Hawk]

If we don't win a premiership in the next two seasons then our midfield is screwed in the absence of another Newcombe type lucky pick, or a FA recruit.

Merrett's quality is not in doubt.
Giving up so much for Merrett is an enormous gamble we won't recover from easily if it doesn't come off.

2 first round picks plus a former first round pick.
FML that is desperate.

That could get any midfielder in the competition, yet we hitch our wagon to a 30 year old.

Just back the club with whatever we do mate. Enough evidence with MM and Sam they know exactly what's best.

Fans are talking themselves into hysterics like adding Merrett will be some disaster if we pay X or Y. It won't.

We've got an awesome young core to still build around. Our future picks will be late teens (not top 5) and this year's pick will end up 13 in a shit draft.

We're not a club that is shit scared to fail being all in to win. Unlike many posters it seems.

We made a prelim. It's go time right now.

 

[mustang]

Are we topping up for one last tilt after a 3 peat like Clarko? Or building for sustsined success over the next many years?

How often is all eggs in one basket the right strategy?

Hardwick also did it and ended up quitting and running off to the Suns.

And look st the basketcase Collingwood is now.

We want multiple flags not one, one is what the Melbourne or Dogs etc of this league do, that's not us.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Granted, he should've probably said he'd bring his mother and sisters along as well, to emphasise it would be an attempt to educate Smith - but to equate what he said with "gang violence" etc. is still a bit rich.

Christ this is next level obtuseness to not concede a point. Bravo!

 

[Newmo89]

For those who are concerned with what we end up doing in regards to the Merrett deal, it was at a similar time last year that people were saying that we overpaid for Barrass. Mark McKenzie and the list management and recruiting team know what they are doing and will do the best deal to improve our list for next year and beyond.

Merrett will be in Hawthorn colours next year and over the next 48 hours will request a trade to Hawthorn. Then it will get interesting. As with everything at this time of the year, things are fluid and what people who are privy to information say one day might change by the next as nothing during a trade period is as straight forward and simple as we would like to think.

Hustwaite has had interest from Essendon, Richmond and North and is increasingly unlikely to be at Hawthorn next year.

The Serong deal will likely go through on Monday and will start to unlock other parts of our trade period plan. Sit back and enjoy the next 5 days as our list management team improve our squad to be able to compete for a flag in 2026.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

For those who are concerned with what we end up doing in regards to the Merrett deal, it was at a similar time last year that people were saying that we overpaid for Barrass. Mark McKenzie and the list management and recruiting team know what they are doing and will do the best deal to improve our list for next year and beyond.

Merrett will be in Hawthorn colours next year and over the next 48 hours will request a trade to Hawthorn. Then it will get interesting. As with everything at this time of the year, things are fluid and what people who are privy to information say one day might change by the next as nothing during a trade period is as straight forward and simple as we would like to think.

Hustwaite has had interest from Essendon, Richmond and North and is increasingly unlikely to be at Hawthorn next year.

The Serong deal will likely go through on Monday and will start to unlock other parts of our trade period plan. Sit back and enjoy the next 5 days as our list management team improve our squad to be able to compete for a flag in 2026.

The GOAT

 

[BigLittleHawk]

After reading everyone's intel, it seems the trade will be Z.Merrett for pick 9, future 1st and J.Scrimshaw.

 

[ahhhhhh]

For those who are concerned with what we end up doing in regards to the Merrett deal, it was at a similar time last year that people were saying that we overpaid for Barrass. Mark McKenzie and the list management and recruiting team know what they are doing and will do the best deal to improve our list for next year and beyond.

Merrett will be in Hawthorn colours next year and over the next 48 hours will request a trade to Hawthorn. Then it will get interesting. As with everything at this time of the year, things are fluid and what people who are privy to information say one day might change by the next as nothing during a trade period is as straight forward and simple as we would like to think.

Hustwaite has had interest from Essendon, Richmond and North and is increasingly unlikely to be at Hawthorn next year.

The Serong deal will likely go through on Monday and will start to unlock other parts of our trade period plan. Sit back and enjoy the next 5 days as our list management team improve our squad to be able to compete for a flag in 2026.

Is Humphrey involved in those plans?

 

[Hawked Wings]

For those who are concerned with what we end up doing in regards to the Merrett deal, it was at a similar time last year that people were saying that we overpaid for Barrass. Mark McKenzie and the list management and recruiting team know what they are doing and will do the best deal to improve our list for next year and beyond.

Merrett will be in Hawthorn colours next year and over the next 48 hours will request a trade to Hawthorn. Then it will get interesting. As with everything at this time of the year, things are fluid and what people who are privy to information say one day might change by the next as nothing during a trade period is as straight forward and simple as we would like to think.

Hustwaite has had interest from Essendon, Richmond and North and is increasingly unlikely to be at Hawthorn next year.

The Serong deal will likely go through on Monday and will start to unlock other parts of our trade period plan. Sit back and enjoy the next 5 days as our list management team improve our squad to be able to compete for a flag in 2026.

You're a king Newmo

 

[Barry Damage]

The hardest thing that complicates the trade discussion is the media just going with the description “first round picks”. The problem lies in the fact that a first round pick can be anything from 1 to 20-odd with all the f/s, academy and compensation picks coming in. The narrative needs to change from a first round pick to a top 5/top 10/top 20 tagline so you get a real understanding of what proposals mean. It took people quite a while to work out Geelong’s 3 x 1st rounders was actually likely going to be picks in the 20’s which Is somewhere you are still definitely throwing darts and relying on a bit of luck versus a top 5 where there is a pretty good record of getting your hands on a handy player…

 

[MJA33]

The hardest thing that complicates the trade discussion is the media just going with the description “first round picks”. The problem lies in the fact that a first round pick can be anything from 1 to 20-odd with all the f/s, academy and compensation picks coming in. The narrative needs to change from a first round pick to a top 5/top 10/top 20 tagline so you get a real understanding of what proposals mean. It took people quite a while to work out Geelong’s 3 x 1st rounders was actually likely going to be picks in the 20’s which Is somewhere you are still definitely throwing darts and relying on a bit of luck versus a top 5 where there is a pretty good record of getting your hands on a handy player…

Couldn’t agree more.
Shouldn’t be called “first round picks”
Classify in 1-5 6-10 11-15 and anything past that is just completely different value.
The difference in those ranges is so significant.

 

[Strebi3]

Mackenzie will not be included in a trade for Merrett

I posted the opposite last night and can now confirm this is true. Have just been told Cam won’t be a part of the Merrett deal.

Things change, I trust my source. I’m just relaying what I get told, doesn’t mean I as the messenger agree with what’s being said.

 

[hardway]

Butters is worth 2x top 5 picks and probably more. 100% they match any deal

If a decent Melbourne based club finishes last they may not have the power they think they may have in forcing the trade. Anyway it’s all guess work 12 months out.

 

[George Zip]

Don’t understand why some people think Butters would want to play for Hawthorn. Has he ever expressed interest in joining us? I’m curious to know what this is based on. He actually strikes me as someone who’d harbour antipathy for the brown and gold.

 

[Burtman]

If a decent Melbourne based club finishes last they may not have the power they think they may have in forcing the trade. Anyway it’s all guess work 12 months out.

West coast are certain to finish last, Melbourne and north the next likely, can’t see butters wanting to go to any of those teams. Like all gun players he’ll go somewhere that’s in contention. But whoever gets him will pay the biggest trade haul of all time

 

[Hawker399]

Are we looking at Humphrey for 2026 rather than this year? Of course I'd prefer 2025 plus Merrett. We can afford both if Brisbane and Essendon strike reasonable deals and we did it using the next 2 future drafts. I think we should.

 

[Ashman23]

I posted the opposite last night and can now confirm this is true. Have just been told Cam won’t be a part of the Merrett deal.

Things change, I trust my source. I’m just relaying what I get told, doesn’t mean I as the messenger agree with what’s being said.

Thanks again Strebi3, I don't think anyone here is taking what you're sharing as 'what you think' of 'what the club should do', you're passing on what you're hearing and we appreciate any little nugget of how things are moving behind the scenes. We also know things are very fluid this time of year.

Thanks again.