Who will be better in 2025 - Geelong or Hawthorn?

[Mr Meow]

Your basing that opinion on somebody that hasn't finished developing yet. Your only applying your logic to Holmes. I disagree he was comfortably ahead in 2024 considering Newcombe won a BnF in a team that finished in the top 6 and got 22 Brownlow votes. Your falling into the trap Walshy is. Newk was a late developer who didn't go through the traditional under 18s route that somebody like Holmes did either so realistically not even the club know what he's going to be like in a few years let alone a big footy expert such as yourself. Let's revisit this in 2 years time and see how our predictions are faring up.

I said for the 2024-2025 period. That at least gives us enough games where Holmes was actually playing the same position as Newcombe. Which in some ways does mean you can only make a truly accurate comparison 2025 onwards. And then we are back to Holmes comfortably outperforming Newcombe in the same position.

Of course anyone's predictions can be wrong. I'm not pretending I have a crystal ball. It's just an opinion and it's not some personal attack on your club or player.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I said for the 2024-2025 period. That at least gives us enough games where Holmes was actually playing the same position as Newcombe. Which in some ways does mean you can only make a truly accurate comparison 2025 onwards. And then we are back to Holmes comfortably outperforming Newcombe in the same position.

Of course anyone's predictions can be wrong. I'm not pretending I have a crystal ball. It's just an opinion and it's not some personal attack on your club or player.

Again your saying comfortably when you and I both know that's incorrect, comfortably would imply he won a Brownlow and was a top 5 player in the comp last year. That didn't happen and isn't the case yet even if Geelong supporters believe it to be so. He had a marginally better year last year I'll grant you that and I'll grant you this year too.

 

[Mr Meow]

Again your saying comfortably when you and I both know that's incorrect, comfortably would imply he won a Brownlow and was a top 5 player in the comp last year. That didn't happen and isn't the case yet even if Geelong supporters believe it to be so. He had a marginally better year last year I'll grant you that and I'll grant you this year too.

Nope, we simply disagree and that's the bit it seems you're finding hard to accept. If you think Newcombe is neck and neck with Holmes currently and going forward, that's fine. I just don't agree.

 

[rye]

Would he not be in the discussion? He's had 4 elite matches out of 5. It's a pretty good strike rate so far.

no

 

[Yoda_]

Who would have thought that Hawks supporters over rating there own

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Who would have thought that Hawks supporters over rating there own

If you've followed the discussion, I think you'll find it is actually the umpires, the coaches, the football analysts, the statisticians, the AA selectors and the media that overrates Newcombe.

How have they all collectively not been able to see the truth - that Jai Newcombe and George Hewett are on exactly the same level and that Max Holmes is 'miles ahead' on career to date.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Nope, we simply disagree and that's the bit it seems you're finding hard to accept. If you think Newcombe is neck and neck with Holmes currently and going forward, that's fine. I just don't agree.

You will find the majority of neutrals would not have that view he's comfortably better taking bias away from the discussion.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Who would have thought that Hawks supporters over rating there own

Laughable coming from a bombers fan who are still asking for 6 first rounders for Merrett.

 

[DearJai]

no

Did Meow and Walsh have a baby?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If you've followed the discussion, I think you'll find it is actually the umpires, the coaches, the football analysts, the statisticians, the AA selectors and the media that overrates Newcombe.

How have they all collectively not been able to see the truth - that Jai Newcombe and George Hewett are on exactly the same level and that Max Holmes is 'miles ahead' on career to date.

Nah, none of them seem to rate him all that highly either.

10th place in the Brownlow seems to be about as close to glory as Newcombe has gotten, equal with champions of the games such as Brad Crouch that year.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You will find the majority of neutrals would not have that view he's comfortably better taking bias away from the discussion.

Well since you rate Newcombe as an A grader, and Merrett is leagues ahead of him as a player... 6 first rounders seems about right. 1 for every BnF he's won!

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Nah, none of them seem to rate him all that highly either.

10th place in the Brownlow seems to be about as close to glory as Newcombe has gotten, equal with champions of the games such as Brad Crouch that year.

You're still not actually following the discussion though. We are not arguing he is a top 5-10 mid in the game. We are arguing whether he in the same rung as Holmes on career to date - all of those metrics I quoted suggests so (Holmes also has not ever finished higher than 17th). I'm also arguing that George Hewett and Jai Newcombe are not on the same level as players - again, as all of those metrics and viewpoints indicate.

I can't tell if you are being deliberately dense for the sake of trolling or whether you genuinely can't see the distinctions being made?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Nah, none of them seem to rate him all that highly either.

10th place in the Brownlow seems to be about as close to glory as Newcombe has gotten, equal with champions of the games such as Brad Crouch that year.

I don't want to keep going round in the same circle so let's agree on some things.

What we can agree on:

1. I agree that Newcombe is not a top 10 mid in the game at this point.
2. I agree that Holmes was better in 2025
3. I agree that Holmes' season in 2025 was probably the best season from either player

What I don't agree with:

1. Holmes has been 'miles better' than Newcombe on career to date (as all available stats, coaches votes, BL votes, B&F placings, finals performances, etc would support).
2. I don't agree Hewett is on the same level as Newcombe as a player (as per every metric listed in point 1)

 

[DearJai]

I can't tell if you are being deliberately dense for the sake of trolling or whether you genuinely can't see the distinctions being made?

Both he and Meow seem to walk the same grey line that overlaps each of those sides of stupid.

They'll go on and on escalating their efforts to defend some unusual, long forgotten point that they had articulated until it's so distant from where their arguments sit, you struggle to recall what it was.

 

[DearJai]

I don't want to keep going round in the same circle so let's agree on some things.

What we can agree on:

1. I agree that Newcombe is not a top 10 mid in the game at this point.
2. I agree that Holmes was better in 2025
3. I agree that Holmes' season in 2025 was probably the best season from either player

What I don't agree with:

1. Holmes has been 'miles better' than Newcombe on career to date (as all available stats, coaches votes, BL votes, B&F placings, finals performances, etc would support).
2. I don't agree Hewett is on the same level as Newcombe as a player (as per every metric listed in point 1)

I'd probably add 'Newcombe is not a dominant finals player' to the second part as well. He clearly has been, in all but one of the 5 he's played.

 

[Mr Meow]

Both he and Meow seem to walk the same grey line that overlaps each of those sides of stupid.

They'll go on and on escalating their efforts to defend some unusual, long forgotten point that they had articulated until it's so distant from where their arguments sit, you struggle to recall what it was.

Straight to insults and misplaced condescension. So if you do want to play that game: you haven't made a single coherent point in this thread, which makes the attempts at intellectual superiority all the more hilarious.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'd probably add 'Newcombe is not a dominant finals player' to the second part as well. He clearly has been, in all but one of the 5 he's played.

A dominant elimination and semi final player. Yet to prove himself in the big boy finals setting: QF, PF, GF.

 

[Mr Meow]

I don't want to keep going round in the same circle so let's agree on some things.

What we can agree on:

1. I agree that Newcombe is not a top 10 mid in the game at this point.
2. I agree that Holmes was better in 2025
3. I agree that Holmes' season in 2025 was probably the best season from either player

What I don't agree with:

1. Holmes has been 'miles better' than Newcombe on career to date (as all available stats, coaches votes, BL votes, B&F placings, finals performances, etc would support).
2. I don't agree Hewett is on the same level as Newcombe as a player (as per every metric listed in point 1)

Holmes has been closer to AA selection/best for his position the previous two seasons. Newcombe was closer the two seasons before that. Trajectory-wise that illustrates a clear trend, but Newcombe could take a big step and reverse it next year. Let's see.

 

[DearJai]

Holmes has been closer to AA selection/best for his position the previous two seasons. Newcombe was closer the two seasons before that. Trajectory-wise that illustrates a clear trend, but Newcombe could take a big step and reverse it next year. Let's see.

You take a match winner in finals over an AA selected player any day of the week.

It's nonsense to suggest otherwise.

And the comparisons don't really have any context attached. During Holme's best year, Newcombe carried a calf injury that limited his ability to run. He still carried an entire midfield on his back along with that injury.

These burdens followed him into finals, most notably in the Prelim. Newcombe was still best on in 2 out of three.

Has Holmes shown an ability to carry his side, while playing through injury? He hasn't. He hasn't needed to because he has a support cast.

What Newcombe brings to the table isn't going to be quantified by stats. He's a constantly improving (even on a down year), highly skilled, contested ball winning, endurance monster, who also happens to be carved out of granite.

Even if you disagree with that - he's a fit Will Day and another mate in the middle (likely going to be Josh Ward) away from being on the right end of this conversation, if he isn't already.

Hawthorn were into Holmes on draft night, and you guys just beat us to the punch. But again I know who I'd pick if I was choosing between the two, and twice on Sundays if we're talking finals.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

He's still going

 

[SSSSSS]

Holmes does have a weird looking head so that does shave a few points off.

 

[DearJai]

He's still going

Oh look, someone shook the coconut tree again….

 

[WilloTree]

Unfortunately I think they genuinely believe that Rye. Hokball has done a number on their brains.

What is "Hokball"?

 

[Sttew]

What is "Hokball"?

Is it Hawks version of Bazball?

 

[WilloTree]

Is it Hawks version of Bazball?

Still no idea what that means. Is it to do with English test crickers?