Who will be better in 2026? Geelong or Hawthorn.

[Mr Meow]

I think Geelong will finish higher on the ladder, but Hawthorn will progress further in finals.

Creative pick.

That last happened in 2008 (or if you mean advancing to a later week in finals, then 2000). 2012-2015 and 2018 Hawthorn progressed further in finals, but also finished higher on the ladder.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm too lazy also, what I do know is that Lewis will be a different player 12 months after the reco, as he only really started to get going late this year. And Dear getting a full preseason definitely improves us, he's such a talent.

Possibly. I'm not denying the talent of the players. I just don't remember their additions lifting Hawthorn's scoring power, but maybe that will happen in 2026. I'd still just play 3 of the key forwards. 4 can work, but it means a small/medium player who deserves to play misses out.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Possibly. I'm not denying the talent of the players. I just don't remember their additions lifting Hawthorn's scoring power, but maybe that will happen in 2026. I'd still just play 3 of the key forwards. 4 can work, but it means a small/medium player who deserves to play misses out.

Lewis probably didn’t as he was a bit scratchy coming back from the ACL, and even Calsher was similar after the back issues, but I think they do ultimately make us far more potent.

I’d still love to see Gunston, Chol, Lewis and Dear in the side, mainly due to how different they all are, and how good Dear, Gunston and Chol are at ground level.

 

[SSSSSS]

Possibly. I'm not denying the talent of the players. I just don't remember their additions lifting Hawthorn's scoring power, but maybe that will happen in 2026. I'd still just play 3 of the key forwards. 4 can work, but it means a small/medium player who deserves to play misses out.

Lewis looked back to his best in the first half in the prelim.

Just ran out of legs in the second half.

He was subbed out in his two prior games.

If he gets through pre-season unscathed he could have a great season at full fitness.

 

[Mr Meow]

Lewis looked back to his best in the first half in the prelim.

Just ran out of legs in the second half.

He was subbed out in his two prior games.

If he gets through pre-season unscathed he could have a great season at full fitness.

About the whole "but then he got tired" thing:

It's an interesting one because a narrative has emerged that Hawthorn were the better team last year, but through misfortune missed top 4 and then were simply too tired to run out the prelim.

Nothing that happens next season will prove or disprove that because each year is it's own thing. I do think a more realistic explanation is that Geelong have been better the past few seasons, but Hawthorn might go past them in 2026. And it won't just be because Lewis + Dear reached sufficient fitness.

 

[SSSSSS]

About the whole "but then he got tired" thing:

It's an interesting one because a narrative has emerged that Hawthorn were the better team last year, but through misfortune missed top 4 and then were simply too tired to run out the prelim.

Nothing that happens next season will prove or disprove that because each year is it's own thing. I do think a more realistic explanation is that Geelong have been better the past few seasons, but Hawthorn might go past them in 2026. And it won't just be because Lewis + Dear reached sufficient fitness.

I'm not sure where the narrative that Hawthorn were the better team last year is coming from?

By pretty much every metric Geelong were better, and the ladder position also is indicative of this (we were statistically better defensively, but Geelong were far and away the better team offensively). Could argue til the hens come home about difficulty of fixture etc but you can only play who's in front of you.

I do think we legitimately ran out of gas in the prelim though. We were up and about in Q1 but looked flat footed after the break. Geelong handled the occasion better, Scott moved the right magnets and we got outworked and outmuscled from Q2-Q4.

A fit Lewis and Dear is an exciting prospect and should help to bridge the scoring gap between the sides. It's the major gap that stands out between the two sides IMO.

Defense is a slight edge to the Hawks (dependent on a fit Stewart).
Midfield I'd say is a slight edge to the Cats (dependent on a fit Day). It's the glaring weakness for both sides.
Forward half fire power is where Geelong had the clearest advantage.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Without huge confidence I'd say hawks if you're judging ladder position.

We had a great injury run this year that is unlikely to be replicated. The rule changes will limit the gap our one wood (speed in transition to a strong forward line) gives us as everyone gets lower ToG% and can run with us. We're also changing the midfield mix substantially by adding two slower contested types which could go either way. We still need two of Cameron, Stewart, Danger out there too. The biggest one though is our draw. It's cruel and unusual.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm not sure where the narrative that Hawthorn were the better team last year is coming from?

By pretty much every metric Geelong were better, and the ladder position also is indicative of this (we were statistically better defensively, but Geelong were far and away the better team offensively). Could argue til the hens come home about difficulty of fixture etc but you can only play who's in front of you.

I do think we legitimately ran out of gas in the prelim though. We were up and about in Q1 but looked flat footed after the break. Geelong handled the occasion better, Scott moved the right magnets and we got outworked and outmuscled from Q2-Q4.

A fit Lewis and Dear is an exciting prospect and should help to bridge the scoring gap between the sides. It's the major gap that stands out between the two sides IMO.

Defense is a slight edge to the Hawks (dependent on a fit Stewart).
Midfield I'd say is a slight edge to the Cats (dependent on a fit Day). It's the glaring weakness for both sides.
Forward half fire power is where Geelong had the clearest advantage.

Not by everyone, but that is a narrative I've seen pushed a bit - that Geelong only finished top 4 rather than Hawthorn courtesy of an easy fixture, then Hawthorn were tired after Q1 in the prelim due to not finishing top 4 (finals fatigue accumulation). Brisbane ran all over us late in 2024 and 2025 finals with less rest, so I'm just not sure it's an excuse.

 

[SSSSSS]

Not by everyone, but that is a narrative I've seen pushed a bit - that Geelong only finished top 4 rather than Hawthorn courtesy of an easy fixture, then Hawthorn were tired after Q1 in the prelim due to not finishing top 4 (finals fatigue accumulation). Brisbane ran all over us late in 2024 and 2025 finals with less rest, so I'm just not sure it's an excuse.

I think the real reason the Lions ran over everyone in 2024 and 2025 is there is a huge talent gulf between them and the rest.

I think on paper only GC comes close.

 

[Mr Meow]

I think the real reason the Lions ran over everyone in 2024 and 2025 is there is a huge talent gulf between them and the rest.

I think on paper only GC comes close.

Which brings me back to my point, that the better team prevails in these scenarios. Brisbane > Geelong > Hawthorn, regardless of fixtures or injuries (at least the past 2 seasons). Maybe next year Geelong and Hawthorn swap.

 

[SSSSSS]

Which brings me back to my point, that the better team prevails in these scenarios. Brisbane > Geelong > Hawthorn, regardless of fixtures or injuries (at least the past 2 seasons). Maybe next year Geelong and Hawthorn swap.

Brisbane are leagues ahead of both sides. When you have that much of a talent gulf I don't think fixture/injuries matter as much.

When the two teams are closely matched I'd say it has a more significant bearing but at the end of the day if you're good enough you're good enough.

We weren't. Hopefully we are in 2026.

 

[Mr Meow]

Brisbane are leagues ahead of both sides. When you have that much of a talent gulf I don't think fixture/injuries matter as much.

When the two teams are closely matched I'd say it has a more significant bearing but at the end of the day if you're good enough you're good enough.

We weren't. Hopefully we are in 2026.

Brisbane tend to blow us away in a quarter and a bit. It's happened in 4 of our last 5 games against them.

Geelong had the ascendancy for 3 quarters against Hawthorn in the 2025 PF, and we really don't lose to you guys much.

Perhaps the latter changes in 2026.

 

[matey]

I reckon Hawks midfield in 2026 will surprise!

 

[juss]

I think Hawthorn, their cycle looks well placed for 2026.

 

[LeBronco]

No.

Newcombe, Sicily, Day, Gunston, Battle Barrass, Weddle, Watson, Moore all widely regarded as stars and most have been in AA or AA squad, then others like Amon, Impey, Meek, Hardwick, Scrimshaw all unheralded, but certainly excellent players in their positions.

To say Hawthorn lack star power while also claiming that Geelong have stars on every line, to me is a bit absurd, and is either downplaying the talent on the Hawthorn list or overplaying the ‘well coached/role players’ belief.

Geelong are stacked everywhere look at their forward 50 for starters it has Cameron, Miers and Stengle who are all superstars while Dangerfield although past his best is still capable of breaking games open as you would have seen first hand in the preliminary final. Then you have Dempsey who is on his way to becoming a superstar and Close who is a solid B grader compare this to Hawthorn's forward line where Gunston is the only genuine A grader and it isn't even close, rucks on the hand are slightly in Hawthorn's favour although if one of Conway or Edwards hits their straps and establishes themselves in the best 22 then I'd probably be leaning towards Geelong.

Geelong have the better midfield with Smith, Holmes and Blicavs being genuine A graders while Hawthorn have Newcombe and Day as their A graders and Day can't get on the park. Defence is also in favour of Geelong they have arguably the best defence in the AFL with Stewart, Guthrie and Henry being A graders while De Koning, O'Sullivan and Humphries are young and quality so I wouldn't be surprised if they all go on to become A graders in the future. Hawthorn have Sicily and Barrass as A graders while Hardwick, Impey, Battle and Scrimshaw are a solid support cast of B graders making a solid defence it's just not as good as Geelong's.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Geelong are stacked everywhere look at their forward 50 for starters it has Cameron, Miers and Stengle who are all superstars while Dangerfield although past his best is still capable of breaking games open as you would have seen first hand in the preliminary final. Then you have Dempsey who is on his way to becoming a superstar and Close who is a solid B grader compare this to Hawthorn's forward line where Gunston is the only genuine A grader and it isn't even close, rucks on the hand are slightly in Hawthorn's favour although if one of Conway or Edwards hits their straps and establishes themselves in the best 22 then I'd probably be leaning towards Geelong.

Geelong have the better midfield with Smith, Holmes and Blicavs being genuine A graders while Hawthorn have Newcombe and Day as their A graders and Day can't get on the park. Defence is also in favour of Geelong they have arguably the best defence in the AFL with Stewart, Guthrie and Henry being A graders while De Koning, O'Sullivan and Humphries are young and quality so I wouldn't be surprised if they all go on to become A graders in the future. Hawthorn have Sicily and Barrass as A graders while Hardwick, Impey, Battle and Scrimshaw are a solid support cast of B graders making a solid defence it's just not as good as Geelong's.

Bizarre post in so many ways. The worst take was the rucks. Time to stop drinking mate.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Battle a solid support cast B grader just .

 

[Obeanie1]

Bizarre post in so many ways. The worst take was the rucks. Time to stop drinking mate.

He conceeded the Hawks rucks were better.

And Conway and Edwards need to keep improving. Nothing bizarre about that.

Conway a couple of years older than Edwards who is entering his 3rd season.

Meek rated as the 10th best ruck.

 

[Mr Meow]

Meek's better than Geelong's rucks but for whatever reason our mobile options SDK and Blicavs tend to do okay against him.

Geelong's defence isn't as strong as Hawthorn's. Our one dominant rebounder Stewart is near the end, while Duncan and Tuohy are gone. Zuthrie and Henry do their jobs well without being stars. We don't have an elite small lockdown defender despite Mullin doing what he did to Watson.

Forward lines it's pretty close. You almost can't include Miers anymore for Geelong as he's been a defacto wingman the past 2 seasons (but that does strengthen our midfield). Likewise Mannagh, he is often around stoppages to give us a bit more there but then closer to home he's not always there. When we're kicking inside 50 it's Cameron, Dangerfield, Neale, Close and Stengle as our standard forward options. There's firepower there but if the 2 veterans are off kilter (GF day) it quickly breaks down. I'd say we have more upside with forward options but Hawthorn are more consistent.

Midfields you'd have to give it to Geelong. Day comes into the discussion when his body proves up to it again. People do forget Hawthorn have excellent wingmen supporting their stoppage group, so overall it isn't as weak as described, but you can say the same with Geelong using Dempsey + Miers as outside mids.

 

[SSSSSS]

I mean the stats pretty much confirmed it last season.

Our back six/seven > Geelong's back six/seven.
Geelong's forward six > Hawthorn's forward six.
Geelong's Midfield > Hawthorn's midfield (if Day is fit this is probably quite even)

There isn't a whole lot between either side across any line but that's just how I see it. Form and fitness and many of the above will alter in 2026.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Geelong are stacked everywhere look at their forward 50 for starters it has Cameron, Miers and Stengle who are all superstars while Dangerfield although past his best is still capable of breaking games open as you would have seen first hand in the preliminary final. Then you have Dempsey who is on his way to becoming a superstar and Close who is a solid B grader compare this to Hawthorn's forward line where Gunston is the only genuine A grader and it isn't even close, rucks on the hand are slightly in Hawthorn's favour although if one of Conway or Edwards hits their straps and establishes themselves in the best 22 then I'd probably be leaning towards Geelong.

Geelong have the better midfield with Smith, Holmes and Blicavs being genuine A graders while Hawthorn have Newcombe and Day as their A graders and Day can't get on the park. Defence is also in favour of Geelong they have arguably the best defence in the AFL with Stewart, Guthrie and Henry being A graders while De Koning, O'Sullivan and Humphries are young and quality so I wouldn't be surprised if they all go on to become A graders in the future. Hawthorn have Sicily and Barrass as A graders while Hardwick, Impey, Battle and Scrimshaw are a solid support cast of B graders making a solid defence it's just not as good as Geelong's.

I'll just throw the same comments back at you then in the same way.
Hawthorn have Gunston, Ginnivan and Moore who are all superstars.
Then you have Weddle and Watson on their way to becoming superstars AND Dear, plus Chol who is a very solid B grader.

Hawthorn have Newcombe and Day, then they have Ward and McKenzie the two Number 7 picks coming through behind them. Geelong's best mid had 1 top shelf final left in him, and is 35?

Which Guthrie do you think is an A grader? Gosh I hope you don't mean Zac. Sicily, Barrass, Battle are all A graders.

Maybe next time just post with your Geelong account.

 

[Obeanie1]

I'll just throw the same comments back at you then in the same way.
Hawthorn have Gunston, Ginnivan and Moore who are all superstars.
Then you have Weddle and Watson on their way to becoming superstars AND Dear, plus Chol who is a very solid B grader.

Hawthorn have Newcombe and Day, then they have Ward and McKenzie the two Number 7 picks coming through behind them. Geelong's best mid had 1 top shelf final left in him, and is 35?

Which Guthrie do you think is an A grader? Gosh I hope you don't mean Zac. Sicily, Barrass, Battle are all A graders.

Maybe next time just post with your Geelong account.

If Gunston, Ginnivan and Moore are Superstars what is Nick Daicos and others who are better than those three?

Megastars?

Super Duper Stars?

BTW "Superstar" def: Oxford - an extremely famous and successful performer or sports player.

Extremely famous and successful.

 

[Sttew]

Geelong's best mid had 1 top shelf final left in him, and is 35?

Geelong's best mid is not Dangerfield

 

[H00t]

If Gunston, Ginnivan and Moore are Superstars what is Nick Daicos and others who are better than those three?

Megastars?

Super Duper Stars?

BTW "Superstar" def: Oxford - an extremely famous and successful performer or sports player.

Extremely famous and successful.

I mean if Miers and Stengle are superstars and Guthrie and Henry are A graders then all bets are off in regards to player rankings.

Funny that’s not the comment you pulled up though

 

[LeBronco]

I'll just throw the same comments back at you then in the same way.
Hawthorn have Gunston, Ginnivan and Moore who are all superstars.
Then you have Weddle and Watson on their way to becoming superstars AND Dear, plus Chol who is a very solid B grader.

Hawthorn have Newcombe and Day, then they have Ward and McKenzie the two Number 7 picks coming through behind them. Geelong's best mid had 1 top shelf final left in him, and is 35?

Which Guthrie do you think is an A grader? Gosh I hope you don't mean Zac. Sicily, Barrass, Battle are all A graders.

Maybe next time just post with your Geelong account.

Ginnivan and Moore are a tier below Stengle who is top echelon however both are good players and would get a game at most AFL clubs also the key forwards Lewis, Dear and Chol are good as is Neale but Cameron is elite. Day is A grade but has struggled to get on the park if he can stay fit he can add a new dimension to Hawthorn's midfield kind of like the impact Bailey Smith has had on Geelong's midfield after recovering from an ACL. Don't get me wrong I think Hawthorn are a solid side with a great coach similar to Collingwood and we've seen Collingwood win a flag recently there is no reason why Hawthorn can't do something similar I mean Lewis, Dear and Chol are a better trio of key forwards than Cox, Frampton and Mihocek who played in Collingwood's recent premiership.