Vic The joke that is the Victorian Liberal Party.

[Johnny Bananas]

For those playing at home, here is the operative quote from the sbs article:

I wonder what other projects have included the undefined (in the article) "wider economic benefits" in their BCRs.

The auditor-general's office detailed it:

Wider economic benefits
The EWL business case relied heavily on the inclusion of estimated WEBs to support the assertion that the project was of net benefit. Without these WEBs, which were unusually high as a proportion of total benefits, the project cost was clearly higher than the expected benefits.

WEBs relate to economic benefits that are not typically captured in traditional cost-benefit analysis. Commonly considered WEBs include:

• 'agglomeration' impact (an increase in productivity due to improved proximity to suppliers and labour markets)
• the impact of transport on increasing competition
• competition related user benefits.

The DTF guidelines indicate that WEBs are most relevant to transport and other large infrastructure projects. However, guidance materials from DTF and Infrastructure Australia indicate caution should be exercised when estimating and considering WEBs as part of the economic assessment of projects.

DTF's guidelines note that the extent to which WEBs exist over and above benefits counted in the standard economic evaluation is not yet clear, and will depend on the nature of the project under consideration.

The June 2013 business case does not provide sufficient information to explain the basis for the significant change in WEBs from the March 2013 business case.

This was important, because an external peer review of the March 2013 business case raised significant issues with the plausibility of the level of WEBs claimed for the project in terms of their ratio to total benefits. Specifically it stated:

• 'initial observations are that the ratio between core travel benefits and WEBs is very atypical with the latter being much higher as a proportion of overall benefits than would normally be expected
• a thorough review of the literature has confirmed our knowledge and experience that WEBs...typically represent around 10–40 per cent of the traditional benefits
• the higher values are for CrossRail in London where WEBs have been estimated 40–50 per cent...mainly [due] to the ability of CrossRail to allow tens of thousands of additional workers to access high value jobs in more productive areas that would otherwise simply not have been possible. This is an extreme situation that is certainly not replicated in Melbourne with the East West Link'.

The peer review concluded that the relationship between the standard user benefits and the WEBs was so highly unusual that they warranted a detailed discussion and explanation if they were not to be discounted as implausible.

The final business case did not satisfactorily address this issue. It only provides a high‑level discussion of the approach used to calculate the WEBs and does not specifically address the issues identified by the peer review. As a result, the information included in the business case offered insufficient assurance about the robustness and reliability of the estimated WEBs for EWL.

East West Link Project | Victorian Auditor-General's Office

This audit examined whether the state effectively managed the East West Link project and the related costs by assessing the total costs of the project, the appropriateness of the advice supporting key project decisions and the lessons for future major projects.

www.audit.vic.gov.au

 

[Bunk Moreland]

If we were talking about a seasoned political professional I might concede your point. But Groth is new to this, and has displayed naivete during his short time in parliament.

Does the mere act of wanting elected office transform one into untrustworthy?

That’s a good question, and it might sound ridiculous, but when it comes to anybody who stands for the major parties, I’d just about say yes.

I find it very hard not to question anybody who steps into that snake pit. I think at the very least you need to be tremendously power hungry, and that’s what leads to the rest.

I struggle to believe anybody gets as far as joining a party and being pre-selected is naive to how it all works and is unwilling to get dirty.

Of course there’s degrees to everything, but these people are a different breed.

I’m much less suspicious of independent and minor party candidates, I can much easier buy that they are genuinely wanting to represent their community - they’re never going to hold a ministry or senior leadership position.

I don’t buy Groth’s shit tbh. He didn’t suddenly decide he wanted to represent his community as he claims. He was recruited to the LNP and much more likely he got stars in his sights as they told him he was a future premier.

 

[The Punter]

Of course there’s degrees to everything, but these people are a different breed.

I always love to hear things like this, between my periods of shapeshifting and eating emotions.

"These people"

"Different breed"

Lots of our problems have something to do with this way of thinking, that other people are "set apart".

Have a fantastic day.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

For those playing at home, here is the operative quote from the sbs article:

I wonder what other projects have included the undefined (in the article) "wider economic benefits" in their BCRs.

All of them since 2015, they're not making that mistake again

 

[QuietB]

I'm going to leave the question of competence to others as I've not had anything to do with Groth, but I do know he was factionally unaligned in an area where factions are entrenched and there was a large number of preselection candidates. And as I have said about him before, being factionally unaligned might mean you are (initially) without enemies but it also means you have few friends.

There is no arguing that we struggle for good preselection candidates. To run in a lower house seat (and I live in one we need to win), you need disposable income (candidates can donate unlimited amounts to their own campaigns so are expected to do so, while other methods of fundraising are severely limited in Victorian elections), the ability to at least take leave from work to campaign, an understanding family (not just the time away but the stuff that will get thrown at you), and the ability to encounter people in your campaigning who will say all sorts of things to you and not at all be bothered by it. It's certainly a disincentive.

I watched a video comparing the US system to China the other week and one of the big takeaways was the competence the Chinese system can/should deliver.

The video basically explained that for anyone to succeed in the Chinese system they need to start at the bottom and work through all levels before they can rise to positions of real power. This means they know how the system works and what is required of them. It also means that if they don't have the acumen they are dismissed at the lower levels of the government before they can screw anything up that really matters.

I am not passing comment on the system in China and will ignore discussions about authoritarianism or communism or corruption etc. but will make the point that populist candidates who do not have real experience of how government works - ie. extreme example is Trump - are probably not your guys for going straight to the top (not that Groth achieved that).

The biggest problem in western democracies like the US, UK and Australia IMO is governments basically ignore their responsibility to serve the people of their nation.

An extreme example is Trump again winning an election on the back of votes of the working poor from the rust belt but then holding his inauguration indoors with the billionaire tech bros.

Government has been captured entirely in the US, UK and Australia and the results are not good.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

For those playing at home, here is the operative quote from the sbs article:

I wonder what other projects have included the undefined (in the article) "wider economic benefits" in their BCRs.

But what the rushed east-west link business case failed to consider was that by tunnelling under the old Fitzroy Gasworks the government would have subsequently had to pay the builder for millions in variations associated with the contamination.

So let's not quibble about cents in the dollar, the entire basis for the costing was not worth the paper it was written on.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The CFMEU contracts are more generous than the AWU contracts. AWU workers were well paid. It's why infrastructure is cheaper in other states.

Do you have credible evidence that infrastructure is cheaper in other states, and that the cost difference is due to which union the workers are represented by? It seems to me there are many aspects to project cost, and wages are only one.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Groth is playing the victim but I wouldn’t be too quick to buy into that.

Maybe.

But he also was wronged by the Herald scum and he took them to the cleaners, good.

He seemed too much like a talented politician which people need and not talented enough at being a "Politician"

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I always love to hear things like this, between my periods of shapeshifting and eating emotions.

"These people"

"Different breed"

Lots of our problems have something to do with this way of thinking, that other people are "set apart".

Have a fantastic day.

I think lots of the problems with our democracy - pretty much all of them actually - are down to the major political parties and what they’ve become. Standing for basically nothing except winning the next election, naked corruption (due mostly to donations and funding) and a widespread lack of true representation.

Yes, they are largely set apart from the people they purport to represent.

Thankfully people are waking up to it and their vote is reducing.

Perhaps it’s the ultimate end point for any successful political party and we need to have them collapse and be replaced every few generations. Which is hopefully happening right now.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Maybe.

But he also was wronged by the Herald scum and he took them to the cleaners, good.

He seemed too much like a talented politician which people need and not talented enough at being a "Politician"

What did he ever achieve to suggest he was a talented politician?

 

[The Punter]

I think lots of the problems with our democracy - pretty much all of them actually - are down to the major political parties and what they’ve become. Standing for basically nothing except winning the next election, naked corruption (due mostly to donations and funding) and a widespread lack of true representation.

Yes, they are largely set apart from the people they purport to represent.

Thankfully people are waking up to it and their vote is reducing.

Perhaps it’s the ultimate end point for any successful political party and we need to have them collapse and be replaced every few generations. Which is hopefully happening right now.

The party of which I am a member is clearly at a crossroads. The events of 2005-2007 prove the ALP is largely indestructible. The union movement, regardless of overall membership levels across the workforce, will endure (and it is a main function of Industry Super) and as a result, will always ensure the functional operation of their political wing.

And none of what you described is the inescapable effect of the existence of a major political party. Like all organisations, such as political parties, sporting clubs or businesses, they are only collections of people and therefore all that is needed is for people to decide to behave differently.

 

[western royboy]

The party of which I am a member is clearly at a crossroads. The events of 2005-2007 prove the ALP is largely indestructible. The union movement, regardless of overall membership levels across the workforce, will endure (and it is a main function of Industry Super) and as a result, will always ensure the functional operation of their political wing.

And none of what you described is the inescapable effect of the existence of a major political party. Like all organisations, such as political parties, sporting clubs or businesses, they are only collections of people and therefore all that is needed is for people to decide to behave differently.

Can I ask a question?

The Member for SW Coast has been left outside both of the last two shadow cabinets despite being on a healthy margin down here and realistically no chance of losing her seat. For the record I reckon she’s more than decent and much brighter than her Federal counterpart.

She got shafted out of Battin’s crew and the hatred between her and the new leaders husband is well known.

How can they hope to govern with this type of crap bubbling away?

 

[The Punter]

Can I ask a question?

The Member for SW Coast has been left outside both of the last two shadow cabinets despite being on a healthy margin down here and realistically no chance of losing her seat. For the record I reckon she’s more than decent and much brighter than her Federal counterpart.

She got shafted out of Battin’s crew and the hatred between her and the new leaders husband is well known.

How can they hope to govern with this type of crap bubbling away?

By governing.

Ms Britnell, who I very much like, got shafted out of Battin's crew due to (this is what I heard) an unfulfilled commitment to vote for Battin in his challenge of O'Brien in 2021. I hadn't heard anything about a hatred of Aaron Lane (Jess Wilson's husband) but it's the sort of thing people in positions of leadership need to be putting aside. I think Ms Britnell is deserving of a spot in the Shadow Cabinet.

But her neighbour, Richard Riordan, who was very much in Camp McArthur, was also shafted because he stuck with Battin over Wilson in this last challenge.

In my current analysis, everything leads back to the senior Liberal Member for Western Victoria, and from all external indicators, she has won the battle. It remains to be seen if the girl who visited to ride on ponies during the 1990s will avoid the kind of "mistake" Matthew Guy and Brad Battin made to lose Mrs McArthur's support shortly after she helped them win the leadership.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The party of which I am a member is clearly at a crossroads. The events of 2005-2007 prove the ALP is largely indestructible. The union movement, regardless of overall membership levels across the workforce, will endure (and it is a main function of Industry Super) and as a result, will always ensure the functional operation of their political wing.

And none of what you described is the inescapable effect of the existence of a major political party. Like all organisations, such as political parties, sporting clubs or businesses, they are only collections of people and therefore all that is needed is for people to decide to behave differently.

Correct in theory, perhaps not so much in practice. Many people don't change - they need to be turned over - but when any organisation gets to a point where a certain group / faction dig themselves in, the complete downfall of the organisation is the only real outcome.

Not sure the ALP is indestructible, I think they've benefitted hugely from the LNP's struggles and have gained a lot of centre votes as a result. They're certainly in a better spot than the LNP, but not sure they'll be around forever. If a central force can emerge, it would seriously challenge the ALP I think. That only really happens over decades / generations however. It won't be the LNP, who seem more interested in moving right, away from the voters.

 

[Saint]

If LNP win, they 100% will cut the public service.

100% will give govt money to provate companies as consultants or just selling state assets for cents in the dollar.

 

[Saint]

Correct in theory, perhaps not so much in practice. Many people don't change - they need to be turned over - but when any organisation gets to a point where a certain group / faction dig themselves in, the complete downfall of the organisation is the only real outcome.

Not sure the ALP is indestructible, I think they've benefitted hugely from the LNP's struggles and have gained a lot of centre votes as a result. They're certainly in a better spot than the LNP, but not sure they'll be around forever. If a central force can emerge, it would seriously challenge the ALP I think. That only really happens over decades / generations however. It won't be the LNP, who seem more interested in moving right, away from the voters.

The problems in each party are structural. They're fixable, but it would take far too much hard work and have far too many people aligned against that change.

Like Menzies, it would be easier to create a new party from the rubble or pieces of others with less baggage and improved structure. But none would be perfect at weeding out opportunists and power-hungry morons.

 

[kalex6251]

asked similar question when inspector plod was opposition leader ...... but since wilsons taken over the job and elevated bev mccarthur to leader of the opposition in the senate - the risk has risen exponentially

what will these religious nutters do with existing voluntary assisted dying laws if they win govt?

 

[Mighty Eagles]

What is the probability that the Labor government will be re-elected in November?

 

[The Punter]

asked similar question when inspector plod was opposition leader ...... but since wilsons taken over the job and elevated bev mccarthur to leader of the opposition in the senate - the risk has risen exponentially

what will these religious nutters do with existing voluntary assisted dying laws if they win govt?

More Libs voted for the amendments to the laws (which made access easier) this time around than voted for the original law. This is one of those things where things are only moving in one direction and reversal seems highly unlikely.

 

[Gough]

As long as they can keep their gay conversion therapy.

 

[The Punter]

Correct in theory, perhaps not so much in practice. Many people don't change - they need to be turned over - but when any organisation gets to a point where a certain group / faction dig themselves in, the complete downfall of the organisation is the only real outcome.

Not sure the ALP is indestructible, I think they've benefitted hugely from the LNP's struggles and have gained a lot of centre votes as a result. They're certainly in a better spot than the LNP, but not sure they'll be around forever. If a central force can emerge, it would seriously challenge the ALP I think. That only really happens over decades / generations however. It won't be the LNP, who seem more interested in moving right, away from the voters.

Workchoices presented the union movement with its existential crisis and it made it through resoundingly. As long as there is a union movement, there will be an ALP as a party of government.

I don't necessarily agree with Saint on both parties' issues being structural. However, the LNP's issues are endemic right now. And I don't think creating a new political force that can win government is in any way easy: it took an incredible confluence of events to create the Liberal Party in the first place.

 

[kalex6251]

groth threw a few punches at his own side in yesterdays announcement .... and yet the media is largely quiet

i wonder why

 

[hamohawk1]

groth threw a few punches at his own side in yesterdays announcement .... and yet the media is largely quiet

i wonder why

I firmly believe the HS, 3aw etc are trying harder than ever to try and get the libs across the line here, as they know their influence is getting less election on election and another loss might genuinely spell curtains for any level of influence as well as the libs in vic.

 

[The Punter]

groth threw a few punches at his own side in yesterdays announcement .... and yet the media is largely quiet

i wonder why

Maybe if he had included "RWNJ" and "Lib fanboi" in his announcement, he might have got more attention.

BTW, his announcement on the front page of the websites of the H-Sun, The Age, The AFR, The Australian this morning, with the two Melbourne dailies also having op eds on it.

If that is largely quiet, I'll need industrial strength headphones for when they started actually getting noisy.

 

[kalex6251]

I firmly believe the HS, 3aw etc are trying harder than ever to try and get the libs across the line here, as they know their influence is getting less election on election and another loss might genuinely spell curtains for any level of influence as well as the libs in vic.

can add melb abc radio to that list ..... appalling fanboi stuff going on in that joint at the moment

its like - oh i dunno - a gentlemens agreement has been reached between rich/powerful types ..... perhaps over friday arvo drinks under the elm tree in the grounds of the melb club ...... lets call it 'operation protect jess wilson'