List Mgmt. 2025 List Management III 📃

[Crippa#9]

If Fogarty lines up in opening round after the emergence of Evans, Moir & inclusions of Ainsworth, Hayward etc I’d be staggered (and frustrated).

He’s not good enough. VFL standard. Can’t fathom the amount of undeserved senior games he was gifted last year where he regularly underperformed.

 

[Red_man2008]

If Fogarty lines up in opening round after the emergence of Evans, Moir & inclusions of Ainsworth, Hayward etc I’d be staggered (and frustrated).

He’s not good enough. VFL standard. Can’t fathom the amount of undeserved senior games he was gifted last year where he regularly underperformed.

If he has a role to tag/tackle and harasss one of Sydney’s defensive half weapons I’m all for it. But he needs a role.

 

[Blue since 72]

If Fogarty lines up in opening round after the emergence of Evans, Moir & inclusions of Ainsworth, Hayward etc I’d be staggered (and frustrated).

He’s not good enough. VFL standard. Can’t fathom the amount of undeserved senior games he was gifted last year where he regularly underperformed.

He got games because he was able to apply forward 50 pressure when most others either couldn't or didn't bother (plus there was no one else really).

You're right though, with Haywood and Ainsworth coming in the squeeze should see him playing a lot more VFL.

 

[gbatman]

If Fogarty lines up in opening round after the emergence of Evans, Moir & inclusions of Ainsworth, Hayward etc I’d be staggered (and frustrated).

He’s not good enough. VFL standard. Can’t fathom the amount of undeserved senior games he was gifted last year where he regularly underperformed.

He hasn't had competition before. He's got games because he's been one of the best available because until Wright arrived, we have had no idea on how to recruit forwards. It's an indication on how weak our forwardline has been.

Teams line up guys like Fogarty, Durdin and Cottrell and play off them because they aren't proper genuine AFL forwards. They don't present and don't threaten the opposition so teams play off them. This is why opposition analysis is soooo important.

When these guys are standing at the feet of our talls and not leading, just waiting for the ball to be bombed in on their heads, their opponents are zoning off double or triple teaming Curnow and McKay. When Cottrell is running up and down the ground and making the effort to get behind the ball and guard space, his opponent is double teaming one of our talls. The opposition know exactly which players we will go to every time.

This is where the comment that we are easy to coach against comes from.

The best our forward line has functioned and the best we have been under Voss was when McKay, Curnow, Silvagni and Martin were all forward presenting, demanding their opponent stick with them and giving strong targets.

We will be back to this with who we have now and it will work with them all there. Gone are the days of being successful with ground level only forwards, opposition teams eat them alive and exploit you by zoning off them.

This is why I'm so positive about us this year. McKay, O'Keeffe, Kemp, Moir, Ainsworth, Hayward and Byrne are all really strong overhead and will demand attention.

Fogarty and Cottrell will dominate the VFL and provide strong depth. Our list has gone forward and that's great for us.

 

[Crippa#9]

He got games because he was able to apply forward 50 pressure when most others either couldn't or didn't bother (plus there was no one else really).

You're right though, with Haywood and Ainsworth coming in the squeeze should see him playing a lot more VFL.

Nope. The whole ‘Fogarty is good because he applies so much pressure’ is an absolute myth.

1, he ranks #162 in the league for pressure acts per game. In fact there is eight Carlton players that average more.

2, he’s not in the top five at Carlton for tackles. Less than 4 a game.

3, 0.5 goals a game. As a small forward he simply doesn’t score anywhere near enough and he’s a woeful set shot.

4, have you seen how easy teams run the ball out from a forward 50 stoppage?

I genuinely struggle to understand what he brings to our team that makes us better. He’s a depth player and that’s how he should be managed this year.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

He got games because he was able to apply forward 50 pressure when most others either couldn't or didn't bother (plus there was no one else really).

You're right though, with Haywood and Ainsworth coming in the squeeze should see him playing a lot more VFL.

The Blues were 4th in the league for tackles inside 50 last year (11.7 per game), Fogarty averaged 1.4, Motlop 1.2, Evans 1.2, Will White 1.0 & Harry McKay 1.0

 

[Blue since 72]

Nope. The whole ‘Fogarty is good because he applies so much pressure’ is an absolute myth.

1, he ranks #162 in the league for pressure acts per game. In fact there is eight Carlton players that average more.

2, he’s not in the top five at Carlton for tackles. Less than 4 a game.

3, 0.5 goals a game. As a small forward he simply doesn’t score anywhere near enough and he’s a woeful set shot.

4, have you seen how easy teams run the ball out from a forward 50 stoppage?

I genuinely struggle to understand what he brings to our team that makes us better. He’s a depth player and that’s how he should be managed this year.

My post dealt with his effectiveness inside 50 as to why he was picked the last few seasons;

Ranked 13th in the league for tackles inside 50 (of those 13, 7 played less than 9 games), ranked 15th in the league for total tackles inside 50 from 20 games.

Never said he was any good at scoring, is actually poor particularly at set shots except for one game where he kicked 4. Like I said there was no one else to pick from who could have offered more. This year though way different story and as you say is really depth going forward.

I have mentioned this before but he is one of the players included in the "we don't have enough good players" comment made by Wright at the end of last year.

Carlton either buried it's head in the sand or just took too long to acknowledge the above until Wright showed up but things are definitely looking up

 

[Flaggers22]

Nope. The whole ‘Fogarty is good because he applies so much pressure’ is an absolute myth.

1, he ranks #162 in the league for pressure acts per game. In fact there is eight Carlton players that average more.

2, he’s not in the top five at Carlton for tackles. Less than 4 a game.

3, 0.5 goals a game. As a small forward he simply doesn’t score anywhere near enough and he’s a woeful set shot.

4, have you seen how easy teams run the ball out from a forward 50 stoppage?

I genuinely struggle to understand what he brings to our team that makes us better. He’s a depth player and that’s how he should be managed this year.

I don’t think this is a fair interpretation of the data. Pressure acts, as measured by Champion Data, are active attempts to affect an opponent’s disposal, even if they don’t succeed. This includes tackles, corralling, smothers, spoils, and shepherds. Naturally, the players who record the most pressure acts are midfielders, because they spend more time around the ball. You can see this in the data: midfielders dominate this statistic.


Even if you exclude the mids to see how he compares to others in his position, most of the forwards who are actually midfielders (inaccurately classified as forwards, e.g. Jack Graham) or part-time midfielders (Pickett, Bedford) record the most pressure acts, simply because they’re around the ball more. The only way this statistic could meaningfully capture individual performance would be if it were measured relative to time spent near the ball.


As for your point regarding tackles, he is equal 10th in the league for tackles inside 50 per game, and in the top 20 for tackles per game among all forwards. I think these numbers, along with Voss’s comments, point to him being an excellent pressure forward. We have our own data analysts, and they would have more advanced metrics than Champion Data’s pressure acts and raw tackle numbers.


I can see why you would come to your conclusions based on the publicly available data. But just so you know, they’re not great. They’re mostly presented in a way that’s easy for laypeople to digest, rather than being optimised for statistical analysis. There are more robust measures that aren’t publicly available.


For what it’s worth, I agree that he shouldn’t be in the 22. I think his poor xG output and substandard kicking outweigh the positives he brings to the table.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

I don’t think this is a fair interpretation of the data. Pressure acts, as measured by Champion Data, are active attempts to affect an opponent’s disposal, even if they don’t succeed. This includes tackles, corralling, smothers, spoils, and shepherds. Naturally, the players who record the most pressure acts are midfielders, because they spend more time around the ball. You can see this in the data: midfielders dominate this statistic.


Even if you exclude the mids to see how he compares to others in his position, most of the forwards who are actually midfielders (inaccurately classified as forwards, e.g. Jack Graham) or part-time midfielders (Pickett, Bedford) record the most pressure acts, simply because they’re around the ball more. The only way this statistic could meaningfully capture individual performance would be if it were measured relative to time spent near the ball.


As for your point regarding tackles, he is equal 10th in the league for tackles inside 50 per game, and in the top 20 for tackles per game among all forwards. I think these numbers, along with Voss’s comments, point to him being an excellent pressure forward. We have our own data analysts, and they would have more advanced metrics than Champion Data’s pressure acts and raw tackle numbers.


I can see why you would come to your conclusions based on the publicly available data. But just so you know, they’re not great. They’re mostly presented in a way that’s easy for laypeople to digest, rather than being optimised for statistical analysis. There are more robust measures that aren’t publicly available.


For what it’s worth, I agree that he shouldn’t be in the 22. I think his poor xG output and substandard kicking outweigh the positives he brings to the table.

From memory wasn't Motlop our best pressure act forward by some margin last year - top dozen or so in the league?

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think as others have said, there was an overemphasis on defensive pressure and positioning, to the detriment of our ability to attack and move the ball well.

This style actually suits guys like Fog who can pressure all day, and wouldn't be able to capitalise on opportunities anyway.

You don't see guys like Daicos play accountable football. There needs to be a mix, but we can't go all in on defense and rely on quick long bombs + lock it in our 50 as our gameplan. That is late 2010s football.

 

[ctwenty1]

Won't be long before Ison is playing Seniors. He's better than those you mentioned

disagree with yoiu on moir, but take your point on the others

 

[Opium]

What was interesting in the match sim was Fogarty (in the blue team) being left deep at FF, not roaming up the ground

On Ison, I await to see his form in the VFL. I'd be shocke dif he is displavcing either Moir or Kemp, or Evans for that matter

Why would Fogarty be left at Full Forward? Has he ever taken a mark above his head?

 

[beowulf]

If Fogarty lines up in opening round after the emergence of Evans, Moir & inclusions of Ainsworth, Hayward etc I’d be staggered (and frustrated).

He’s not good enough. VFL standard. Can’t fathom the amount of undeserved senior games he was gifted last year where he regularly underperformed.

I wouldn't go that far, but Fog has struggled to have the impact he once had (especially the last half of 2023). Granted he has had more than his share of injuries in that time, but he just isn't having the impact. His tackle numbers are down, and some of it is because other teams now know what he brings. He doesn't take many marks, although he has done a lot better in this area than he did when he first arrived: his aerial work them simply wasn't good enough then. But the big one, the crucial one, is that he doesn't kick enough goals. He doesn't get snap goals, in fact he was running at about 0.4 goals per game in 2025. That isn't enough.
That could improve if he is (finally) 100% fit, but I would rather see more dangerous players given the chance to shine.
Moir doesn't do enough, but one thing in his favour is that he doesn't miss. His kicking from a set shot is excellent. He hasn't got many snap goals yet, but I hope he picks up in that area.

 

[RAPPA]

Why would Fogarty be left at Full Forward? Has he ever taken a mark above his head?

Catering to his inability to kick beyond 30m

 

[JuddgementDay]

Moir will go well when he is in a team where he is not focused on by the defence. In the AFL side with McKay, O'Keeffe, Kemp, Hayward, Ainsworth etc he's going to be on someone shorter and not as strong defensively. The challenge will be to position well and become a target more often. He doesn't have to kick 3 goals plus a game or get 20 disposals. He just needs to contribute, draw a man and make the most of his opportunities and contribute to a well functioning forward line.

Our forward line is not about how many goals Curnow and McKay kick anymore. It's about how many goals we score as a group and how we do that is by spreading the defence, force defenders to stick with their man due to the forwards being genuine threats. Moir is a big part of that, can't leave him alone, he will mark it or he will crumb it. It's about not having forwards defenders can leave alone, which opens that game right up. Its also about making sure our ball carriers have options and multiple options when we get going forward. He will contribute to this.

This means that there will be times Moir doesn't get the ball, or he goes missing because he has kicked a few and his man has had to lock down on him. But that opens the door up for other forwards. That is how he will contribute to a functioning forwardline. Moirs man is locking down hard on him keeping him quiet instead of doubleteaming McKay or Kemp and then they kick 5. That sort of thing. And because of that we win games.

Am I hearing we may get some easy goals?

 

[agro]

Moir will go well when he is in a team where he is not focused on by the defence. In the AFL side with McKay, O'Keeffe, Kemp, Hayward, Ainsworth etc he's going to be on someone shorter and not as strong defensively. The challenge will be to position well and become a target more often. He doesn't have to kick 3 goals plus a game or get 20 disposals. He just needs to contribute, draw a man and make the most of his opportunities and contribute to a well functioning forward line.

Our forward line is not about how many goals Curnow and McKay kick anymore. It's about how many goals we score as a group and how we do that is by spreading the defence, force defenders to stick with their man due to the forwards being genuine threats. Moir is a big part of that, can't leave him alone, he will mark it or he will crumb it. It's about not having forwards defenders can leave alone, which opens that game right up. Its also about making sure our ball carriers have options and multiple options when we get going forward. He will contribute to this.

This means that there will be times Moir doesn't get the ball, or he goes missing because he has kicked a few and his man has had to lock down on him. But that opens the door up for other forwards. That is how he will contribute to a functioning forwardline. Moirs man is locking down hard on him keeping him quiet instead of doubleteaming McKay or Kemp and then they kick 5. That sort of thing. And because of that we win games.

He could do what Richard Dennis did for us in 1987 - I think Moir is a straighter kick .

Or dare I say he could do what Brad Pearce did for us in 1995.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Geelong don't let go of many good ones. Just sayin'.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Moir will go well when he is in a team where he is not focused on by the defence. In the AFL side with McKay, O'Keeffe, Kemp, Hayward, Ainsworth etc he's going to be on someone shorter and not as strong defensively. The challenge will be to position well and become a target more often. He doesn't have to kick 3 goals plus a game or get 20 disposals. He just needs to contribute, draw a man and make the most of his opportunities and contribute to a well functioning forward line.

Our forward line is not about how many goals Curnow and McKay kick anymore. It's about how many goals we score as a group and how we do that is by spreading the defence, force defenders to stick with their man due to the forwards being genuine threats. Moir is a big part of that, can't leave him alone, he will mark it or he will crumb it. It's about not having forwards defenders can leave alone, which opens that game right up. Its also about making sure our ball carriers have options and multiple options when we get going forward. He will contribute to this.

This means that there will be times Moir doesn't get the ball, or he goes missing because he has kicked a few and his man has had to lock down on him. But that opens the door up for other forwards. That is how he will contribute to a functioning forwardline. Moirs man is locking down hard on him keeping him quiet instead of doubleteaming McKay or Kemp and then they kick 5. That sort of thing. And because of that we win games.

Good post but it seems like you're defending Moir - I don't think anyone really needs to do that at this stage.

9 goals in his last 6 games as a 2nd year player. He's on track. Those laconic moving (Houlihan type) players often attract criticism of being lazy, etc.

Nobody is above criticism but on-field he's tracking well.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

He hasn't had competition before. He's got games because he's been one of the best available because until Wright arrived, we have had no idea on how to recruit forwards. It's an indication on how weak our forwardline has been.

Teams line up guys like Fogarty, Durdin and Cottrell and play off them because they aren't proper genuine AFL forwards. They don't present and don't threaten the opposition so teams play off them. This is why opposition analysis is soooo important.

When these guys are standing at the feet of our talls and not leading, just waiting for the ball to be bombed in on their heads, their opponents are zoning off double or triple teaming Curnow and McKay. When Cottrell is running up and down the ground and making the effort to get behind the ball and guard space, his opponent is double teaming one of our talls. The opposition know exactly which players we will go to every time.

This is where the comment that we are easy to coach against comes from.

The best our forward line has functioned and the best we have been under Voss was when McKay, Curnow, Silvagni and Martin were all forward presenting, demanding their opponent stick with them and giving strong targets.

We will be back to this with who we have now and it will work with them all there. Gone are the days of being successful with ground level only forwards, opposition teams eat them alive and exploit you by zoning off them.

This is why I'm so positive about us this year. McKay, O'Keeffe, Kemp, Moir, Ainsworth, Hayward and Byrne are all really strong overhead and will demand attention.

Fogarty and Cottrell will dominate the VFL and provide strong depth. Our list has gone forward and that's great for us.

Agree Fogarty shouldn't be getting games unless there are a lot of injuries - or he goes back to the VFL and starts kicking bags of goals. Surely we're beyond the days of picking guys only for their tackling. I like Fog but he's not quick enough which is why he gets a lot of tackles - he's second to the ball too much. And he can't kick over a jam tin.

Great depth player - can do a job - but forwards are there to kick or create goals.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Nope. The whole ‘Fogarty is good because he applies so much pressure’ is an absolute myth.

1, he ranks #162 in the league for pressure acts per game. In fact there is eight Carlton players that average more.

2, he’s not in the top five at Carlton for tackles. Less than 4 a game.

3, 0.5 goals a game. As a small forward he simply doesn’t score anywhere near enough and he’s a woeful set shot.

4, have you seen how easy teams run the ball out from a forward 50 stoppage?

I genuinely struggle to understand what he brings to our team that makes us better. He’s a depth player and that’s how he should be managed this year.

I think the stat most people refer to is that he's essentially top 5 in the league for avg. tackes inside 50.

Goals and goal assists are the bigger problem for me. He probably needs to get more involved offensively now or find another position.

 

[Coona Blues]

Agree Fogarty shouldn't be getting games unless there are a lot of injuries - or he goes back to the VFL and starts kicking bags of goals. Surely we're beyond the days of picking guys only for their tackling. I like Fog but he's not quick enough which is why he gets a lot of tackles - he's second to the ball too much. And he can't kick over a jam tin.

Great depth player - can do a job - but forwards are there to kick or create goals.

If Fogarty goes back to the twos (as most of us expect), he will play in the middle, not as a forward. Has always been an under sized midfielder/link player first. Likely quite dominant at the lesser level. Would provide a great presence in a midfield led by second year Ben Campo.

 

[Blue Pulse]

Geelong don't let go of many good ones. Just sayin'.

Stuffed up this time, just saying

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Good post but it seems like you're defending Moir - I don't think anyone really needs to do that at this stage.

9 goals in his last 6 games as a 2nd year player. He's on track. Those laconic moving (Houlihan type) players often attract criticism of being lazy, etc.

Nobody is above criticism but on-field he's tracking well.

I was all for us drafting him, and if we were to have the draft all over again I'd probably do the same but those long periods where he goes missing are a bit of a concern.

 

[Crippa#9]

I think as others have said, there was an overemphasis on defensive pressure and positioning, to the detriment of our ability to attack and move the ball well.

This style actually suits guys like Fog who can pressure all day, and wouldn't be able to capitalise on opportunities anyway.

You don't see guys like Daicos play accountable football. There needs to be a mix, but we can't go all in on defense and rely on quick long bombs + lock it in our 50 as our gameplan. That is late 2010s football.

Surely, if the team has finals aspiration we need players that have a few more weapons in their kit bag than just lukewarm pressure…

If this is the reason he’s in the opening round 23 we would have hardly moved forward in required improvement.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Well, Wade Derksen won’t be a SSP this time around. Will White lives still.

The NT rumour is intriguing.