Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[Libbaaaa]

This underlines the hollowness of Kanes Schlick. It’s all theatre and a show of fake bravado. The reality as we well know is that once Butters decides to leave much of their leverage goes with him. Sure they can make as many grand statements as they like to appease their supporter base but at the end of the day everybody understands that those theatrics carry all of the weight of a night of community theatre.

The idea that they are going to get a high end contracted player in return because they offer a big contract is absurd. Once Butters decides to leave they’ll bottom out and be forced to rebuild through the draft. And with the Tasmanian boondoggle about to begin. I wish them luck.

But sure. Put on a good show for the supporters. When everyone else is playing a zero sum game at their expense.

As an aside why is it that we’re the only club that can’t manage a roster of high profile recruits? High profile clubs with the exception of Collingwoods recent ineptitude, have managed this without issue or having to jettison players for years.

And given clubs like ours have had a couple of years to prepare for the possibility of Butters leaving Port. They’ve had plenty of time to get their contract ducks in an orderly row.

tl;dr: Kanes cope is as hollow as the space between his ears.

As much as he can get on our nerves he is playing a role and playing it well. He knows what will continue to drive engagement and he will be milking this for all its worth. Plus he knows he'll never be held accountable for his statements for he can say dumb stuff like Port should get Freijah.

 

[Golden_6]

Bevo breaking his own rules by admitting to the media he may (or may not) have been talking to Butters.

It's on like Donkey Kong

I think the Barrass one stings him. He always took the moral high ground and didn’t talk to players. Sam Mitchell swooping in on Tom might have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.

 

[Doggy]

My theory is that Butters have unequivocally told Port that he will be leaving, not necessarily to who. I think that’s an absolute given.

They’ll just have to figure out which method is best in extracting the most value from him leaving.

He tried to leave last year

 

[doggiesin08]

I don't think anyone is criticising Geelong, Smith or his management for being ruthless operators that work in the best interests of themselves though - and agree, perhaps the industry could be a bit more ruthless. You can be antagonistic to other clubs, made bids in the draft earlier, hold them over a barrel a the negotiating table. That team you're friendly with in October negotiating trades could be the team that beats you in next September on Grand Final day.

The point I'm generally making though is the AFL's hand in all this. They exist to run a fair sporting competition, one with equalisation principles, while balancing player legal interests in their worker rights in minimising restraint on their trade. I think they failed in this balancing act though.

Yep understood, I was going off on a seperate rant

The only thing here I would contest is that the AFL exists to run a fair sporting competition. I think they’ve proven over and over that they prioritise money over competitive balance. Pendlebury getting a 1-week ban would have led to him breaking the games record in an away game against Geelong but getting to do so at the MCG, a fitting result for a players hitting 430-odd games without a single one played at Kadinia Park.

 

[VitalDread]

I'm pretty bias on how I see trade period to protect picks for Academy and trading up on draft day

Feel like Dogs will be more aggressive in the RFA or UFA market going forward.

Our spine is so strong of young talent that topping up with free agents similar to the Hawks of old is the way forward for us

We have enough overall talent coming though different pathways

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I think the Barrass one stings him. He always took the moral high ground and didn’t talk to players. Sam Mitchell swooping in on Tom might have been the straw that broke the camel’s back.

+1 this, from what I understand the Barass situation certainly got some noses out of joint at WO.

Unlike Mitchell tho, he won’t leak it to the media that he is meeting with oppo players during the season, too much class.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I'm pretty bias on how I see trade period to protect picks for Academy and trading up on draft day

Feel like Dogs will be more aggressive in the RFA or UFA market going forward.

Our spine is so strong of young talent that topping up with free agents similar to the Hawks of old is the way forward for us

We have enough overall talent coming though different pathways

I’m still concerned at how we somehow wrangle Butters + 2 NGA and 2 FS kids without completely nuking three years of picks.

 

[TedDougChris]

A bit like how Geelong dirtied up when Jordan Clark and Tim Kelly wanted to leave. Acted like they were the worst people in the world while 50% of their team was from other clubs.

What about Brisbane being insulted by the Ah Chee offer and holding on to prove a point while deliberately trading out picks when chasing Dunkley ??

****ing flogs !!

 

[VitalDread]

I’m still concerned at how we somehow wrangle Butters + 2 NGA and 2 FS kids without completely nuking three years of picks.

Butters all depends on how Port finish I reckon
If they are bottom 4, I don't see a matching since the Tassie picks mess up the future picks

 

[Golden_6]

We certainly have timed out list profile and contending window well.

If we can bring in those two father sons & add the two NGA prospects this through some creative movement of picks (and have a crack at Butters and a key defender), we won’t need to go hard at the draft for the 2-3 years that Tassie will heavily compromise it.

 

[doggiesin08]

Butters all depends on how Port finish I reckon
If they are bottom 4, I don't see a matching since the Tassie picks mess up the future picks

Obviously its massively in our interest for them to finish low and take the compensation pick, and it sounds like the AFLPA are pushing back against any changes to the system outside of a new CBA framework which is good for us. However, it does highlight how ridiculous the compensation system is that our future prospects can be massively tied to how Port performs this year.

I would prefer compensation picks to not exist at all, and I think a move towards protecting the first 8 picks is at least a step in the right directly. Port shouldn't get compensation picks for Butters - they should get whatever they can in a trade against a credible threat of the PSD, and then they should be using the cap space to throw out offers for Jed Walter, Max Gruzewski, Cameron Mackenzie types.

 

[dogsuperfan]

Bevo breaking his own rules by admitting to the media he may (or may not) have been talking to Butters.

It's on like Donkey Kong

I thought his rule was not to be talking to oppo players during the season. Off season is a different game no?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Obviously its massively in our interest for them to finish low and take the compensation pick, and it sounds like the AFLPA are pushing back against any changes to the system outside of a new CBA framework which is good for us. However, it does highlight how ridiculous the compensation system is that our future prospects can be massively tied to how Port performs this year.

I would prefer compensation picks to not exist at all, and I think a move towards protecting the first 8 picks is at least a step in the right directly. Port shouldn't get compensation picks for Butters - they should get whatever they can in a trade against a credible threat of the PSD, and then they should be using the cap space to throw out offers for Jed Walter, Max Gruzewski, Cameron Mackenzie types.

The MLB does compensation picks for free agency too, but the recruiting team forfeits their draft picks.

It's not beyond the AFL to have a system where we gave up this year's pick (hopefully) 20 - which just dissipates into thin air - or whatever if we recruit Butters. Port still get their pick 2, but our 1st round pick isn't pushing back their 2nd pick to be worse than it is and we just don't get to add another talented draftee if we want Butters.

 

[BigFloppa]

Can't wait for our game with Port when our players are giving ZB a cheeky pat on the bum whenever he makes a good play.

 

[Philthy1]

Can't wait for our game with Port when our players are giving ZB a cheeky pat on the bum whenever he makes a good play.

We could also save time and money by getting him to a fitness test before the game. Then after the game get him into our rooms to do a medical on him, while roaming Brian is hovering.

 

[dogwatch]

We could also save time and money by getting him to a fitness test before the game. Then after the game get him into our rooms to do a medical on him, while roaming Brian is hovering.

He could get some practice at singing the song at the same time.

 

[4Seasons]

The more I think about it, it's going to be really difficult to get a deal done for Butters. Even if we offer up 3 first rounders, there's every chance the 2027 & 2028 picks will be in the 20's with the Tassie introduction. Port might come hard for someone like Sanders if he was actually open to the rumoured move to Adelaide and might be the bridging we need to sweeten the deal as he'd be worth a top 10ish pick.

The best option by far is Port being terrible, no changes in 2026 to FA compo and they accept a top 3 compo pick to get two picks ahead of Cochrane.

Butters will get to the club he nominate

I struggle to care about Gettable and the outside math of it all. Because ultimately IT DOES NOT MATTER. If Butters is set on Geelong, Hawks, Us, whoever. He will get there. Port will play symbolic 'Hard Ball' like we did, for the majority of the trade season. And then when it comes down to crunch time will take the first semi viable pick trade.

We know this because we have lived it a Hundred times before. Port will get massive unders and the chosen club wins. That's the system. We won't need to trade anyone. Do their supporters seriously think Port will allow Butters to walk to the draft and be picked up by the Eagles for nothing? That is if he doesn't slide to his chosen club, on the old 'He won't play anywhere' tactic.

Feel for the Port fans because they seemingly have no idea how ****ed the system actually is for the clubs.

"We know this because we have lived it a hundred times before".
This is why I don't get people constantly debating this stuff every year.
This is why we get such saturated and poor media... people deserve it.

 

[dogwatch]

The MLB does compensation picks for free agency too, but the recruiting team forfeits their draft picks.

It's not beyond the AFL to have a system where we gave up this year's pick (hopefully) 20 - which just dissipates into thin air - or whatever if we recruit Butters. Port still get their pick 2, but our 1st round pick isn't pushing back their 2nd pick to be worse than it is and we just don't get to add another talented draftee if we want Butters.

Agree with this except where you say "it's not beyond the AFL". In theory yes, but I think you overestimate them.

Part of the problem for this may lie with the AFLPA who - IIRC - negotiated a free agent system that didn't involve the receiving club having to pay market price (or any price at all for that matter). The idea being that the player should be able to move freely to the club of his choice. So the system is now heavily skewed toward player mobility after the qualifying period (8 or 10 years) and pays scant attention to the notion of fairness for all clubs or equalisation of the competition. That's why everyone is saying "when <player x> nominates a club that's certainly where he will end up".

Your suggestion is a good one because although it wouldn't force anything like full market price it might at least tilt the scales a little bit back the other way. I doubt the AFLPA would buy it though. And the AFL won't risk a stoush with them.

Has anyone done an analysis of free agent movements since the system came into being a decade or so ago? Especially the movement of elite players? I think it would make interesting reading.

 

[doggiesin08]

Agree with this except where you say "it's not beyond the AFL". In theory yes, but I think you overestimate them.

Part of the problem for this may lie with the AFLPA who - IIRC - negotiated a free agent system that didn't involve the receiving club having to pay market price (or any price at all for that matter). The idea being that the player should be able to move freely to the club of his choice. So the system is now heavily skewed toward player mobility after the qualifying period (8 or 10 years) and pays scant attention to the notion of fairness for all clubs or equalisation of the competition. That's why everyone is saying "when <player x> nominates a club that's certainly where he will end up".

Your suggestion is a good one because although it wouldn't force anything like full market price it might at least tilt the scales a little bit back the other way. I doubt the AFLPA would buy it though. And the AFL won't risk a stoush with them.

Has anyone done an analysis of free agent movements since the system came into being a decade or so ago? Especially the movement of elite players? I think it would make interesting reading.

My ideal system would have compensation picks scrapped entirely, but it would require clubs to be more ruthless with the PSD and the AFLPA rolling over which they won't.

I don't mind 3NPs approach but might even tilt further along the lines of:

• If poaching from a team below you then you lose your next 2 "natural picks"
• If poaching from a team above you then don't lose anything. This promotes faster equalisation.
• You obviously need some structure for loss of picks to shift a year(s) ahead if already traded out

In this structure when Brisbane poaches Oscar Allen the Eagles get pick 2, and Brisbane forfeits their 1R and 2R picks - good luck then matching Annable particularly with new rules, and then basically impossible to get Draper also. When West Coast poaches Starcevich back they don't have any cost because its from a team above them. This shits all over Brisbane paying nothing for Allen + Draper and the AFL doing some other dodgy priority picks to get them a end of 1R for Starcevich.

But as you point out, the AFL pushing for a system that drives equalisation runs directly against the AFLPA pushing for freedom of movement at the expense of equalisation, so nothing meaningful will change.

 

[scooter600x]

He could get some practice at singing the song at the same time.

He knows the song

 

[scooter600x]

The MLB does compensation picks for free agency too, but the recruiting team forfeits their draft picks.

It's not beyond the AFL to have a system where we gave up this year's pick (hopefully) 20 - which just dissipates into thin air - or whatever if we recruit Butters. Port still get their pick 2, but our 1st round pick isn't pushing back their 2nd pick to be worse than it is and we just don't get to add another talented draftee if we want Butters.

The obvious solution is for the team getting the player to fork out points, just like NGA or FS. Give the compo pick if you like, but the extra picks go back into the draft pool.
You have to pay something for getting a free agent.

 

[ossie_21]

Can't wait for our game with Port when our players are giving ZB a cheeky pat on the bum

Could have left it there tbh

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Beveridge off NRL-style contract calls

Beveridge off NRL-style contract calls

todayspaper.theaustralian.com.au

 

[dergert]

Beveridge off NRL-style contract calls

Beveridge off NRL-style contract calls

todayspaper.theaustralian.com.au

Don't agree with Bevo here. Reckon it'd shut out a lot of the journalists out of the game which is a good thing.

 

[doggie dog]

I’m still concerned at how we somehow wrangle Butters + 2 NGA and 2 FS kids without completely nuking three years of picks.

If Sammy can some how snare all the above, Im good for the next few years with just 3rd an 4th rounders.
I want Sammy to swing for the fences, We have the salary cap for
The Bont deserves another premmie.

Also if Port bottom out, they won't want our crappy 1st and 2nd rounders in the tassie compromised drafts, picks that may be in the 20's.
A top 2 or 3 compensation pick, plus their F/S is a great kick start to their rebuild.