#1 pick worth

[tombomb]

I think speculating on what pick 1 is worth, while interesting, is pretty pointless. The way i see it, no one who is worth pick 1 is going to be interested in going to GWS even with a truckload of cash showing up at their place. The only player who fits this category appears to be Franklin and GWS dont need to trade for him.

So ... are there any players that would
a) want to go to GWS and get thrashed every week just for the money
b) be not attainable via free agent or preseason draft (e.g contracted)
c) be legitimately worth pick 1 in the draft.
d) and there current club would be happy to give them up

I dont see any one player or even combinations of players fitting those categories.

But GWS cant just keep getting flogged each week, so they need to get competitive. Most likely I think their best strategy would be to use all their picks to bring in senior players and just restructure their order in the draft. E.g. You could trade pick 1 for Bellchambers (no idea what his contract status is) and Essendon's first 2 picks, but you would need to also be using picks you attain to trade for other senior players. With the ultimate goal being adding 5 to 6 senior players that might be on the fringe at other clubs but can slot straight into your best 22. There are plenty of players out there that could be tempted by money and the promise of regular senior footy.

 

[dlanod]

Would the AFL look at something like this?

What stops Collingwood telling Buddy to come and play for the Pies on $600,000 a year and when he retires he can become a forward coach on $150,000 a year for the next 20 years?

They haven't for:
- Chad Cornes
- Dean Brogan
- James Macdonald
- Luke Power
- Ben Hudson

If it was a scenario like you detailed, i.e. there were guarantees as to the pay and the length of the contract, then I suspect the AFL would look closely at that. That would be no different to clubs guaranteeing third party payments which is a huge no-no. In this case there'd be no guarantees given beyond the existence of a position, same as the rest.

 

[Stopher]

I think speculating on what pick 1 is worth, while interesting, is pretty pointless. The way i see it, no one who is worth pick 1 is going to be interested in going to GWS even with a truckload of cash showing up at their place. The only player who fits this category appears to be Franklin and GWS dont need to trade for him.

So ... are there any players that would
a) want to go to GWS and get thrashed every week just for the money
b) be not attainable via free agent or preseason draft (e.g contracted)
c) be legitimately worth pick 1 in the draft.
d) and there current club would be happy to give them up

I dont see any one player or even combinations of players fitting those categories.

But GWS cant just keep getting flogged each week, so they need to get competitive. Most likely I think their best strategy would be to use all their picks to bring in senior players and just restructure their order in the draft. E.g. You could trade pick 1 for Bellchambers (no idea what his contract status is) and Essendon's first 2 picks, but you would need to also be using picks you attain to trade for other senior players. With the ultimate goal being adding 5 to 6 senior players that might be on the fringe at other clubs but can slot straight into your best 22. There are plenty of players out there that could be tempted by money and the promise of regular senior footy.

I'm thinking a combination of a few things you just mentioned there....

1) Land the big fish in Buddy with a big contract + AFL marketing $$ etc.
2) Go hard after players who aren't getting (in their eyes) sufficient game time. With a stack of premium kids and/or draft picks, this shouldn't be too difficult.
3) Once these are done, you have a slightly deeper core of senior, experienced players (still in their prime, I'm not talking about Dean Brogan stop-gap types) which, along with a developing group of young guns, could be marketed as a package to yet more established players and make them feel as if they are one of the final pieces of the puzzle. Using Gold Coast's rather rapid 3rd-year development wouldn't hurt at this stage.

Buddy is the big one. It'll draw interest from media, fans and it'd also straight away make any other players think that coming on board now might see success sooner rather than later.

 

[Wild Bill]

I'm thinking a combination of a few things you just mentioned there....

1) Land the big fish in Buddy with a big contract + AFL marketing $$ etc.
2) Go hard after players who aren't getting (in their eyes) sufficient game time. With a stack of premium kids and/or draft picks, this shouldn't be too difficult.
3) Once these are done, you have a slightly deeper core of senior, experienced players (still in their prime, I'm not talking about Dean Brogan stop-gap types) which, along with a developing group of young guns, could be marketed as a package to yet more established players and make them feel as if they are one of the final pieces of the puzzle. Using Gold Coast's rather rapid 3rd-year development wouldn't hurt at this stage.

Buddy is the big one. It'll draw interest from media, fans and it'd also straight away make any other players think that coming on board now might see success sooner rather than later.

If he gets up around the 1.8 mill - how much would be left for more players? Surely they could not sign a 2nd big fish.

 

[jabbers]

Why did GWS trade for Gilham instead of taking him first pick in the PSD then? Gilham wanted to leave because GWS offered him post-AFL incentives, and GWS had pick 1 in the PSD. Under your scenario, why trade? GWS gave up Jed Anderson for him too, he was rated around pick 20 from memory.

Another example, Jordan McMahon was out of contract, with Richmond having the first pick in the PSD way back in 07. Yet Richmond handed over pick 19 for him, rather than taking him with their first pick in the PSD. Same can be said for Morton who cost Richmond pick 35.

The answer to both questions is the same. To wait until 1st pick in the PSD you risk them being picked up in the latter stages of the actual draft by another club!

 

[Wild Bill]

The answer to both questions is the same. To wait until 1st pick in the PSD you risk them being picked up in the latter stages of the actual draft by another club!

You can nominate just for the PSD draft. You don't have to go into the national draft.

 

[Stopher]

If he gets up around the 1.8 mill - how much would be left for more players? Surely they could not sign a 2nd big fish.

Not another big fish per se, but they need to have more depth in experienced, bigger-bodied players sooner rather than later. Another year of 10-15 goal floggings on a weekly basis would have the AFL very worried, as they now have the Gold Coast's development this year as some form of measuring stick. Their improvement hasn't come from Ablett, whose standards have been impeccable since he arrived there, but the kids coming on.

GWS will be under a fair bit of pressure to do a similar thing next year when the honeymoon period is well and truly over. Buddy + a couple of other experienced players (Bellchambers / Frawley types) would help them get competitive faster.

 

[Wild Bill]

Not another big fish per se, but they need to have more depth in experienced, bigger-bodied players sooner rather than later. Another year of 10-15 goal floggings on a weekly basis would have the AFL very worried, as they now have the Gold Coast's development this year as some form of measuring stick. Their improvement hasn't come from Ablett, whose standards have been impeccable since he arrived there, but the kids coming on.

GWS will be under a fair bit of pressure to do a similar thing next year when the honeymoon period is well and truly over. Buddy + a couple of other experienced players (Bellchambers / Frawley types) would help them get competitive faster.

Frawley and Bellchambers would not come cheap. They would have to be asking 600k plus to make that move.

 

[Stopher]

Frawley and Bellchambers would not come cheap. They would have to be asking 600k plus to make that move.

Which is where the amounts paid to Scully and Ward would come under more scrutiny. Buddy would have at least achieved a fair amount in the game to justify top dollar, those two hadn't.

 

[Patron]

Would the AFL look at something like this?

What stops Collingwood telling Buddy to come and play for the Pies on $600,000 a year and when he retires he can become a forward coach on $150,000 a year for the next 20 years?

Hawthorn would just match the offer of 600,000. He is a restricted free agent.

 

[Patron]

Frawley and Bellchambers would not come cheap. They would have to be asking 600k plus to make that move.

That would be well worth it. GWS were selfish and cheeky when they tried to just accrue endless draft picks. They are feeling the results now. If they "cashed in" their top few picks this year they could add a lot of quality senior players to balance their list. I imagine they have plenty of money to spare too.

 

[Stopher]

That would be well worth it. GWS were selfish and cheeky when they tried to just accrue endless draft picks. They are feeling the results now. If they "cashed in" their top few picks this year they could add a lot of quality senior players to balance their list. I imagine they have plenty of money to spare too.

Yep. Frawley coming would knock Mohr and Davis down a forward each, ditto Buddy with Patton and Cameron with defenders(the thought of him on '3rd' tall is a bit scary!), with Bellchambers giving their quality mids first use a lot of the time.

I am a huge TBC fan, but if GWS aren't eyeing players of his ilk off right now, but rather prefer patiently waiting for 'the kids' to come through in time, they are mental.

 

[Silvagnis]

Would give Warnock, Lucas and our first pick for #1
This would ease our salary cap with Warnock on too much allowing us to go after a free agent (prefer Daisy as he is a gun)

There is no squeeze with Swann stating we have the cap space to sign a "Dale Thomas" or two.

Hawks should consider throwing Rioli and a good ordinary player or a pick at the Giants for pick one.

The Giants lack a player with X factor to complement all their mids and KPP.

Hawthorn needs more top end youth to revitalise an ageing senior core. Hodge, Burgoyne, Sewell, Mitchell, Gibson, Hale, Guerra and Lake are all in the same age bracket as Judd. They'll need to nail their trades like Sydney to be up in two years. Midfield doesn't look strong if the next generation is lead by Shiels, Smith, Rioli, Hallahan. etc. Breust, Anderson and Hill might be able to cover for Rioli. If Buddy leaves, then Boyd could form a good partnership with Roughead and Gunston. Aish or the best mid could be a god send.

Rioli and their first round pick to GWS
Picks one and 11 to Hawks

Pick one - Boyd
Pick 11 on a mid
Possible Franklin compensation on another mid

 

[GrandBlue]

Why did GWS trade for Gilham instead of taking him first pick in the PSD then? Gilham wanted to leave because GWS offered him post-AFL incentives, and GWS had pick 1 in the PSD. Under your scenario, why trade? GWS gave up Jed Anderson for him too, he was rated around pick 20 from memory.

Another example, Jordan McMahon was out of contract, with Richmond having the first pick in the PSD way back in 07. Yet Richmond handed over pick 19 for him, rather than taking him with their first pick in the PSD. Same can be said for Morton who cost Richmond pick 35.

They didn't 'give up' Jed Anderson, they picked him up for nothing via NT Zoning. That's a luxury only GWS have and they obviously didn't want Anderson.

As for Jordan McMahon, I'm not sure you're aware of this, but Richmond, certainly back then, were really really stupid. They obviously offered the first rounder (was originally going to be the pick they traded for Morton) to get him at the club 2 months early, and as it turns out, it backfired. Could've had Callan Ward, ended up with David Gourdis.

 

[JasRulz63]

As for Jordan McMahon, I'm not sure you're aware of this, but Richmond, certainly back then, were really really stupid. They obviously offered the first rounder (was originally going to be the pick they traded for Morton) to get him at the club 2 months early, and as it turns out, it backfired. Could've had Callan Ward, ended up with David Gourdis.

How do you know they offered a first rounder to get him to the club early? Why can't it have been because Richmond weren't willing to burn the bridges between them and the Dogs? It makes more sense than simply calling a club stupid.

It's something that's been happening for ages, going back to 2003, Dogs traded for an out of contract Steven Koops with pick 19 despite having pick 1 in the PSD. 2001, St. Kilda gave up pick 17 for Heath Black, and then passed on their pick 1 in the PSD.

Either there are a lot of stupid clubs out there, or teams don't completely screw other teams over at every opportunity. How many players worth a top 20 pick have been taken in the PSD, especially at pick 1? All these situations where teams have traded decent picks for players despite having the first pick in the PSD disprove your theory. However you haven't mentioned a situation where a team with a 1st PSD pick has been used to screw a team out of a decent draft pick.

 

[GrandBlue]

How do you know they offered a first rounder to get him to the club early? Why can't it have been because Richmond weren't willing to burn the bridges between them and the Dogs? It makes more sense than simply calling a club stupid.

It's something that's been happening for ages, going back to 2003, Dogs traded for an out of contract Steven Koops with pick 19 despite having pick 1 in the PSD. 2001, St. Kilda gave up pick 17 for Heath Black, and then passed on their pick 1 in the PSD.

Either there are a lot of stupid clubs out there, or teams don't completely screw other teams over at every opportunity. How many players worth a top 20 pick have been taken in the PSD, especially at pick 1? All these situations where teams have traded decent picks for players despite having the first pick in the PSD disprove your theory. However you haven't mentioned a situation where a team with a 1st PSD pick has been used to screw a team out of a decent draft pick.

My theory is that clubs do these trades not only to ensure they get their player, but also to get them 2 months early for preparation reasons, this hasn't been disproved yet.

As for the Koops deal; bad example. I suggest you learn about the Veale Deal.

As for Heath Black, again, assuming he was uncontracted, St.Kilda probably wanted him at the club early, and didn't value pick 17 highly. I don't for one second believe the bullshit theory that St.Kilda were concerned about their relationship with Fremantle on the trade table.

Any more examples? I'd imagine you would've been digging pretty deep to get those, especially Heath Black from what? 12 years ago?

There are plenty of reasons as to why a player worth a top 20 pick has rarely gone #1 in the PSD over the last 13 years. One obvious reason is the fact that the team with the first PSD Pick won the spoon, and good players generally don't want to go to bad teams.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Abusive rubbish deleted.

Keep it clean.

 

[Scotland]

Hawks should consider throwing Rioli and a good ordinary player or a pick at the Giants for pick one.

Why on Earth would Hawthorn want to do that?

Rioli is not even 24 year and is in their top few players. You don't improve your aging core by off-loading your best 24 year old.

Of all the players to off-load for draft picks he should be right at the bottom of the list.

 

[coniglio_number1]

Gws wont let go of pick 1 unless a worthy offer is made. None of this injury history/fringe player crap. Your team wouldn't do it so stop disrespecting gws by trying to gain gold for mud. We can obtain solid experience from the state leagues ala mohr. Kris pendlebury for example has excellent leadership and is a terrific backman and won't cost us more then a fourth round selection. Ruckmen like Giles and Sinclair were snapped up cheap so we can do the same and make a play for NN when he is ooc (he is actually worth the Franklin money and won't affect team balance) perhaps we can grab the jj Liston/margery/sandover medalist and boom instant senior solid depth. And we still land boyd.

 

[smashbox gill]

i dont think a trade will happen. No body will want to give up a ready made player, for a speculative number 1 pick. It the safer option for clubs to keep there stars.

As i said earlier would GWS trade pick 1 for Dangerfield = YES
Would Adelaide trade Dangerfield for pick 1 = NO

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Hell, last year GWS could've taken Gilham pick 1 in the PSD. They traded for him. That basically sums up anything you need to know.

Thanks for Jed Anderson!