NFL 2004 NFC Playoff Race

[JeffDunne]

                  A   B   C
Philadelphia *  11-1 9-0 4-0    @was, dal, @stl, cin     .438 
Atlanta          9-3 7-2 3-1    oak, car, @no, @sea      .396 
Green Bay %      7-5 6-3 2-1    [b]det[/b], jax, [b]@min[/b], [b]@chi[/b]     .479 
St. Louis #      6-6 6-3 5-0    [b]@car[/b], @az, phi, nyj      .604 
Minnesota        7-5 4-4 2-2    [b]sea[/b], [b]@det[/b], [b]gb[/b], @was      .458 
Seattle          6-6 5-4 2-3    [b]@min[/b], @nyj, az, [b]atl[/b]      .604 
-----------------      
Carolina         5-7 4-4 2-1    [b]stl[/b], [b]@atl[/b], [b]@tb[/b], no       .500 
Dallas           5-7 4-4 1-2    no, @phi, was, [b]@nyg[/b]      .500 
Tampa Bay        5-7 4-5 2-2    [b]@sd[/b], no, [b]car[/b], @az        .458 
Detroit          5-7 4-5 1-2    [b]@gb[/b], [b]min[/b], [b]chi[/b], @ten      .479 
Chicago          5-7 4-6 2-2    @jax, hou, [b]@det[/b], [b]gb[/b]      .479 
N.Y. Giants      5-7 4-7 2-3    @bal, pit, @cin, [b]dal[/b]     .604

A - W/L
B - Conf W/L
C - Div W/L
^ Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents.
* Clinched division and playoff spot
% Green Bay would currently win the tiebreaker over Minnesota due to its head-to-head victory (they play again in Week 16)
# St. Louis would currently win the tiebreaker over Seattle due to their 2-0 record in head-to-head games

The games in bold are the games I reckon will determine the outcome.

Who will make it - and why?

The Vikings/Seahawks, Packers/Lions and Panthers/Rams matchups key games this week.

 

[marcuz]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Who will make it - and why?

The Vikings/Seahawks, Packers/Lions and Panthers/Rams matchups key games this week.

It's a pathetic bunch to say the least but i like the panthers to make it. The seem to have the least holes in their game and they are in great form at the minute. I reckon seattle will lose 3 out of their last 4 and the panthers can win all their remaining games, at worst 3 outa 4.

Carolina will be a team nobody will want to face come playoff time.

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Dire struggle after the Eagles. The Falcons only need one WIN to clinch but ain't no certainly whereas the NFC WEST div winner is a strong possibility to enter the play-offs without a winning record The Vikes/ 'Hawks game is a 'cough cough' play-off audition...not that the winner deserves the right to be there. After Favre missing out on a TD on the weekend, put down 4 TD's against Detroit who I'm expecting to get ripped apart >> Can see the Black Cats &/or Tampa replacing either of Vikes, Pack, Rams or Hawks.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago (my smokey) to gate-crash thru to reach the Conf Championship in Philly. Sorry Falcon fans, the Bucs Reality Check really shows how far out of thier depth they really are.

 

[tige19]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

I would be suprised if the Pack lose anymore more than 1 game fo rthe rest of the season, that should just about tie up 2nd or at worst 3rd place in the NFC. I think Tampa will make a run and get a wild card spot, they have to much talent not to win games as they showed against a hot Atlanta. Dallas will lose at least 2 out of there last 4 games they have no hope, the Bears wont beat Green Bay and Jaxonsville so that will dash there hopes.

My final NFC standings will be:

Eagles
Falcons
Packers
Vikings
Rams
Buccs

 

[DonAce]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

My Bears might surprise, but I wouldn't put the house on it. The statistically worst offence in the NFL only needs to start doing something to get better, and the defence is solid with Urlacher back.

If they don't make it, i'm hoping they can at least get a few more scalps like the Vikings.

 

[DEVO]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

I think the top 5 will stay the same, but Tampa may get the final spot at the expence of Carolina. The Panthers still have to play at Atlanta where they are nothing more than Vick's b****.
And despite two poor games this season, I'm going for an upset (based partly on bias) and predicting the Falcons to beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship game. When on song, the Falcons are one of the most exciting team to watch, and with Vick leading the charge, you just don't know what to expect.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

For the Panthers to make it they will need to beat the Rams this week and the Bucs in a fortnight. They should beat the Saints so this would give them 3 more wins. Any less than that and they are out of it. At best 8-8 losing to Falcons, 9-7 with the win.

For the Bucs to make it, they will need to beat either the Chargers this week or Carolina in a fornight. They should beat the Saints and the Cardinals. If they win this week, and Carolina beat the Rams (without Bulger), the Bucs will probably need to beat Carolina anyway to break an 8-8 deadlock (unless of course the Panthers beat the Falcons).

IMO, if the Bucs can beat the Panthers, they'll go 9-7

if the Panthers win, they'll go 8-8 (with the tie-break over the Bucs) or 9-7

but I reckon the Bucs will go 4-0 and earn a wildcard at 9-7

As for the others,

Seahawks will probably only win one more game (Card's). Their defence is too banged up and receivers can't catch. The Vikings and Jets will kill them deep. Atlanta at home in the last game is possible. Probably 7-9, 8-8 at best. But that might be enough.

The Rams are the interesting team and will need to rely on backups to get them up. They have the Panthers and Cardinals in the next couple, and a win aginst either will have them at 7-9 minimum. Assuming the Panthers defence tears them a new one, the Cardinals game will be crucial. But 7-9 will force the Seahawks to win at least two. Forget the rams beating either the Eagles or the Jets. 7-9 will probably get them up.

So the NFC West could easily be won by a team with a losing record. In fact, if both the Rams and Seahawks lost to the Cardinals, the Card's would only need to beat the 49'ers this week to go 7-9 or 8-8 (with an unlikely win over the Bucs in the last). Just about any other team with a draw of the 49'ers, Rams and Seahawks would be given a chance. Anything is possible in the NFC this season.

For me, the Rams will win the conference at 7-9. The Seahawks to miss out on the playoffs at 7-9.

Forget the Giants, they might fluke a win, but that's all. 5-11 or 6-10 for them. The Cowboys are intersting and should win all but the game against the Eagles. 8-8 probably won't be good enough, so a miracle against the Eagles is required.

The Packers and the Vikings are the hard teams to call. I can't see both losing any more than two games. The loser of the two should still have a winning record (9-7 or better) and claim a wildcard spot. For the Lions to have any chance they need to beat the Pakers this week. I don't think they will, and even if they finished with 3 wins it will probably not be enough (7-9 finish at best for Lions). The Bears likewise would probably need to win all four to be any chance. The defence is very good but the offense is very bad (Hutchison looked good last week but it was the Vikings defence). Tough schedule and really couldn't expect more than a couple of wins.

So after saying all that,

Eagles
Falcons
Vikings
Rams
Packers
Winner of Bucs / Panthers

 

[tige19]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Packers just got the win with a 23yrd field goal by Ryan Longwell, 16-13 good come back from the Pack.

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Packers just got the win with a 23yrd field goal by Ryan Longwell, 16-13 good come back from the Pack.

So much for Favre torching the Lions... pffft ! Wonder if thier poser divisional opponents, Vikes, can turn on an exhibition now vs Lions next week knowing too well that they are in freefall mode...from a 5-1 start to 7-6. This weekend basically intensifies the NFC West...losing record can still clinch division.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

                  A   B   C
Philadelphia *  12-1 10-0 5-0   dal, @stl, cin   .436
Atlanta *       10-3 7-2 3-1    car, @no, @sea   .462
Green Bay        8-5 7-3 2-1    jax, [b]@min[/b], @chi  .487
Seattle          7-6 5-4 2-3    @nyj, az, atl    .590
-----------------
Minnesota        7-6 4-5 2-2    [b]@det[/b], [b]gb[/b], @was   .436
Carolina         6-7 5-4 3-1    @atl, [b]@tb[/b], no    .513
-----------------      
St. Louis        6-7 6-3 5-0    @az, phi, nyj    .641
Detroit          5-8 4-5 1-2     [b]min[/b], chi, @ten  .421
Tampa Bay        5-8 4-5 2-2    no, [b]car[/b], @az     .385
Chicago          5-8 4-6 2-2    hou, @det, gb    .385
N.Y. Giants      5-8 4-7 2-3    pit, @cin, dal   .590  
New Orleans      5-8 3-6 0-3    @tb, atl, @car   .538
Dallas           5-8 4-5 1-2    @phi, was, @nyg  .538

A - W/L
B - Conf W/L
C - Div W/L
^ Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents.
* Clinched division and playoff spot

Tiebreakers :

PANTHERS win tiebreaker over RAMS due to head-to-head.

LIONS win NFC North tiebreaker over BEARS due to head-to-head.
BUCS win NFC South tiebreaker over SAINTS due to head-to-head.
GIANTS win NFC East tiebreaker over COWBOYS due to head-to-head.
LIONS and BUCCANEERS win tiebreaker over GIANTS due to conference record.
LIONS win tiebreaker over BUCCANEERS due to strength of victory.
BUCCANEERS win NFC South tiebreaker over SAINTS due to head-to-head.
GIANTS win NFC East tiebreaker over COWBOYS due to head-to-head.
BUCS and BEARS win tiebreaker over GIANTS due to conference record.
BUCS win tiebreaker over BEARS due to head-to-head.
GIANTS win NFC East tiebreaker over COWBOYS due to head-to-head.
BEARS win tiebreaker over GIANTS and SAINTS due to conference record.
GIANTS win NFC East tiebreaker over COWBOYS due to head-to-head.
GIANTS win tiebreaker over SAINTS due to conference record.
SAINTS win tiebreaker over COWBOYS due to head-to-head.

Any clearer??

The games in bold are the games I think will have the most influence. No doubt every game is crucial, and none of the teams still in contention would be assured victory in any game. Pleased also to add the Saints back into the mix for another week courtesy of the Cowboys - but unless they win out, they have no chance. Although I think any of the 5-8 teams will now probably need to win out to clinch a wildcard.

For me, the Carolina/Tamp Bay matchup will determine the last wildcard spot. But Minnesota's annual nose-dive could open up possibilites if the Lions roll them this week.

 

[balmainforever]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Green Bay will clinch the division title this week if they beat the jags and the lions beat the vikings. Don't think that it will happen but i'm starting to pray now all week.

 

[crazy_big_al]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Green Bay will clinch the division title this week if they beat the jags and the lions beat the vikings. Don't think that it will happen but i'm starting to pray now all week.

I got to say u will not be the only one

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Green Bay will clinch the division title this week if they beat the jags and the lions beat the vikings. Don't think that it will happen but i'm starting to pray now all week.

BIG 'IF' Cheeseheads. I think the Wk 16 clash should determine the NFC Central champ. The Pack have the conf edge atm but I'll be anticipating the division will be decided on the last minute of Week 17. More thrills and spills than the honey dripping from your pancakes folks.

 

[tige19]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

BIG 'IF' Cheeseheads. I think the Wk 16 clash should determine the NFC Central champ. The Pack have the conf edge atm but I'll be anticipating the division will be decided on the last minute of Week 17. More thrills and spills than the honey dripping from your pancakes folks.

Dont think so at this stage, i like how we fought out the Detroit game i think ourdefence is coming along alot better bar the Philly game but hey who hasnt Philly scored against??

Brett is our biggest problem atthe moment he is looking tired and seems tobe holding onto the ball a bit long, his not giving him self the space to throw a descent ball.

Driver is playing well and will all know how explosive Javon Walker is so if Brett can start landing some descent balls the WRS will take care of the rest and the points will come.

Free Safety is our major problem, Roman cant cover and is to small to make the big hits on a descent TE it seems its all left up to Sharper and he cant hold the fought strong for a whole season.

Hopefully we dont lose another game and if we are a legitamate chance this season we wont but im hoping we will stitch up the NFC north this weekend. I would be happy to have the Vikings at home in the playoffs i dont think they handle pressure situations and there defence is as bad as any.

cheers

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Dont think so at this stage, i like how we fought out the Detroit game i think ourdefence is coming along alot better bar the Philly game but hey who hasnt Philly scored against??

Ah, I don't think I need to remind you.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

   Team           W-L  Div. Conf.  Remaining Schedule 
1.  EAGLES   — z 13-1  6-0  11-0   @Rams (6-8), Bengals (6-8) = 12-16 (.429) 
2.  FALCONS  — y 11-3  4-1   8-2   @Saints (6-8), Seahawks (7-7) = 13-15 (.464) 
3.  PACKERS  — x  8-6  3-1   7-3   @Vikings (8-6), @Bears (5-9) = 13-15 (.464) 
4.  SEAHAWKS      7-7  2-3   6-4   Cardinals (5-9), Falcons (11-3) = 16-12 (.571) 

Wild-Card teams 

5.  VIKINGS       8-6  3-2   5-5   Packers (8-6), @Redskins (5-9) = 13-15 (.464) 
6.  PANTHERS      6-8  2-2   5-5   @Bucs (5-9), Saints (6-8) = 11-17 (.393) 

Still Alive 

7.  SAINTS        6-8  1-3   4-6   Falcons (11-3), @Panthers (6-8) = 17-11 (.607) 
8.  RAMS          6-8  5-1   6-5   Eagles (13-1), Jets (10-4) = 23-5 (.821) 
9.  BUCCANEERS    5-9  2-3   4-6   Panthers (6-8), @Cardinals (5-9) = 11-17 (.393) 
10. LIONS         5-9  1-4   4-7   Bears (5-9), @Titans (4-10) = 9-19 (.321) 
11. BEARS         5-9  2-2   4-6   @Lions (5-9), Packers (8-6) = 13-15 (.464) 
12. CARDINALS     5-9  2-3   4-6   @Seahawks (7-7), Bucs (5-9) = 12-16 (.429) 
13. GIANTS        5-9  2-3   4-7   @Bengals (6-8), Cowboys (5-9) = 11-17 (.393) 
14. COWBOYS       5-9  1-3   4-6   Redskins (5-9), @Giants (5-9) = 10-18 (.357) 
15. REDSKINS      5-9  1-4   5-5   @Cowboys (5-9), Vikings (8-6) = 13-15 (.464)

It's getting a little clearer - NOT! Only one team mathematically can not make it (49'ers)

A couple of things are clearer :

NFC North

Whoever wins the game this week will win the NFC North.

The loser of this game will probably still hold a wildcard even if they finish 8-8 (only two other teams can finish possibly 8-8), but a win in the last would clinch.

Most likely outcome is both the Vikings and Packers will make it. It's quite possible that these two could meet in the first week of the playoffs and this weeks game determining home field. Although it is more likely that the loser will play the NFC west "winner", so it might actually pay to lose this game.


NFC South

Falcons have clinched first week bye and home field in their first game.

If the Bucs beat the Panthers, the winner of Saints/Panthers in week 17 will probably clinch the last wildcard spot, assuming 7-9 teams don't win out. Even if others win out, 7-9 may still get the Panthers over the line (Panthers and Saints hold tiebreaker against the Rams in the unlikely event they finish 7-9).

If the Panthers win, the winner of the Saints/Panthers game will determine the second ranked NFC South team. If the Panthers win they'll go through on 8-8 regardless of other results. If the Saints win they'll be the team on either 7-9 or 8-8. 7-9 might not be enough for the Saints.

Most likely outcome is the winner of Panther/Saints to end up on 7-9 or 8-8 and go through (although the Saints would probably need 8-8)


NFC West.

Who cares? Really, unless the Rams or Seahawks get some miracle cures for their missing starters or discover some freak form, the winner of this division will make up the numbers.

The Rams would need to win out against the Eagles (who won't want to start losing) and the Jets (who definitely want to win). The Cards would need to win out and Rams/Seahawks to not win another game (not improbable). The Seahawks/Rams could still make a wildcard at 7-9, but would need a lot of things to go their way.

Most likely outcome is the Seahawks winning at least one and clinching the division. The rest missing.

NFC East.

Eagles have clinched first week bye and home field advantage through the playoffs.

The only other team with an outside chance at a playoff spot is the Lions. Should finish 7-9, but need other results to fall their way. Have really shot themselves in the last two games.

 

[tige19]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Eagles,Falcons and Packers forget the rest, these 3 sides are the only teams that can compete with anything from the AFC. As a Packer man i would love for Tampa to miss out i think there a side that can do some real damage and if we where to play them first up in the playoffs i would be far more worried than us facing the Vikings.

Any team who still has Mr.Alstott smashing secondarys is a danger and plsu i think there D is a little stronger than Minnesota. If facing the Vikings i would be happy to give up 30 points because i have no doubt that we could score 40 plus points against them, Tampa have always been a team that we have struggles againts so im hoping they lose this week againts the Panthers.

Atlanta are very beatable and im not really sold on them just yet, i would be happy to face them and at any stage, Vick holds there offence offense together and if you give him little room to set up and work with he can be unrealiable.

However facing the Eagles is another level all together and what they did to us 2 weeks ago scares me, i think they dropped 2 gears in the 2nd half and while we played alot better they still managed to outscore us scary hey??? Favre would have to have a ripping day and the CBs would have be at there best which they havent.

Eagles-Patriots at this stage and i wouldnt be suprised if the Eagles took the whole thing out.

cheers

 

[DaveW]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

It's getting a little clearer - NOT!

Well it's a fair bit clearer now. Should St Louis lose today then Caro/NO is the only game that matters.

Thankfully the possibility of a 7-9 team making it is gone.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Yes indeed.

And the cards keep falling the way of NO. Shows what winning games in December can do.

No way will the Rams beat both the Eagles and the Jets. A loss to either and it's down to one game - New Orleans at Carolina.

It's a playoff game a week early. Jake Vs Brooks will ensure there's plenty of drama and sub-plots in the game. Huge game for NO and AB.

The Saints to win and McKenzie getting to go to Green Bay would keep the script writers busy for another week.

 

[DaveW]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

The Rams win keeps things interesting. There's up to four games next week that will shape the NFC playoffs.

              Overall     Conf    To Play
Seattle (W)     8-7        7-4      Atl 
Minnesota       8-7        5-6     @Was
Carolina        7-8        6-5      NO
New Orleans     7-8        5-6     @Car
St Louis (W)    7-8        7-5      NYJ

Seattle are in the play offs, but they could be playing at home or away in the first week. And if they're in wild card contention, it changes the nature of the tiebreakers.

Potential tie-breakers:

West:

Seattle/St Louis tie: St Louis on head-to-head

Wild cards:

A. St Louis/Carolina tie for 6th: Carolina on head-to-head
B. St Louis/New Orleans tie for 6th: New Orleans on head-to-head
C. Seattle/Carolina tie for 6th: Seattle on head-to-head
D. Seattle/New Orleans tie for 6th: Seattle on head-to-head

E. Minnesota/St Louis/Carolina tie for 5th/6th
--> Min has the worst conference record
--> Car over StL on h2h
--> StL over Min on conference record

F. Minnesota/St Louis/New Orleans tie for 5th/6th
--> Min has the worst conference record
--> NO over StL on h2h
--> StL over Min on h2h

G. Minnesota/Seattle/Carolina tie for 5th/6th
--> Sea over both on h2h
--> Car over Min on conference record

H. Minnesota/Seattle/New Orleans tie for 5th/6th
--> Sea over both on h2h
--> Min over NO on h2h

 

[LoneStar]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia was a BAD game Monday night. Eagles had pulled almost every offensive starter 16 minutes into this one. Eagles did not need this one and it was obvious. Rams play Jets next week and Jets will have a lot more on the line with Buffalo breathing down their neck for a playoff spot. Buffalo get Steelers in a home game that promises to be really cold, and the Steelers have no reason to play hard because they'll just be waiting for a week off and a home playoff game. I expect the Jets - Rams loser to miss the playoffs. Saints - Panthers game should be intense as well!

 

[Woodson]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

Dissappointing aspect was the sleepy Cardinal D not stopping Dilfer on the Seahawks last drive to get that play-off clinching victory. That whole division is a joke. I guess that Coach Reid didn't want a shut out loss to the lambs as his Eagles were 14-1...interesting if coach Reid employs the same tactics this week vs Cinci (in Philly).

 

[DaveW]

Re: NFC Playoff Race

F. Minnesota/St Louis/New Orleans tie for 5th/6th
--> Min has the worst conference record
--> NO over StL on h2h
--> StL over Min on h2h

OK. Obviously my understanding of NFL tiebreakers isn't what it should be.

Must be that St Louis got the 5th seed by having the best conference record (StL 7-5 NO 6-6 Min 5-7).

Then Minnesota got the 6th seed on head-to-head over New Orleans.