2007 Vanders at the helm

[JackHawk]

2004 Exodus...A.Cox, Tallis, McCabe, Picioane, Thommo, Barlow and Heebie represented 850+ games
2005 Exodus...Beaumont, Greene, Hay, Holland, Lekkas, Lonie, Nixon and Scott repres.........800+ games
2005 in Spida, Dutchy, Crawf, Barker, Beaumont, Lekkas, Vanders, Smith and Dicko we had 9 players 28 or older in 2005.
HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS for the end of 2006, such is the necessary changing of the guard at every club. 2004 out went 7. 2005 out went 8.
.........My projection for end of 2006...all personal preferences and biases put aside by the black and white of turnover necessity.
(1) JB (2) Joel Smith (3) Spida (to the Swans) (4) Dicko (5) Crawf (retired, after winning the 2006 HFC B&F) these are added to by 3 - 4 more on their 2006 performances.....Guerra (age 24 in 2006), Campbell (24), Ries (24), Ball (24), Kane (23), Sewell (22) Thurgood (21) Miller (21)
.........2007 Capt. Vanders at the helm turns 30, 14/1/07, 2007 being the last season of his new contract. Mitchell, Hodge and Croady doing their Vice captain apprenticeships. With Vanders at 30, the next oldest are Croad 27 March '07, Jacobs 27 June '07 and then Changa 26 June '07.....
THAT MAKES FOR A VERY, VERY YOUNG, VERY TALENTED TEAM FOR FINALS TILTS IN 2007 and 2008......We have the players ! WHO WILL BE COACHING THEM ? 2006 will be sorting out our Coaches' box TOO !

 

[cs61]

No, need experienced players to stay for as long as possible. Especially Crawf, Smith and Spider.

 

[LoneStar]

...HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS for the end of 2006, such is the necessary changing of the guard at every club. 2004 out went 7. 2005 out went 8...My projection for end of 2006...all personal preferences and biases put aside by the black and white of turnover necessity.
(1) JB (2) Joel Smith (3) Spida (to the Swans) (4) Dicko (5) Crawf (retired, after winning the 2006 HFC B&F) these are added to by 3 - 4 more on their 2006 performances.....Guerra (age 24 in 2006), Campbell (24), Ries (24), Ball (24), Kane (23), Sewell (22) Thurgood (21) Miller (21)...

You seem to be getting a whole lot ahead of yourself!
I'm not sure Barker's body is up to the challenge. Hawks seem to feel the same way. He's shown them enough to allow him to give it another go. Time will tell.
You're ready to buy Spider a one-way ticket to Sydney. He may want that ticket come October. But some on-field personal and team success for Spider and the Hawks could see Spider want to sign on for another couple of years in brown & gold. Plus, you never know what happens at the Swans in '06 or what kind of $$$s that will be offered. The future is rarely crystal clear for a 32-year-old player, even if he's one of the top ruckmen in AFL.
You're ready to show Smith, Crawford, and Dixon the gate without reservations (well, maybe I agree on Dixon but I'm willing to withhold final judgement until September.) I'm not sure Crawford is capable of winning a club B & F at this stage, but I'm also not sure he is ready to hang up his boots just yet. I think he'd like to taste the finals at least one more time and if he sees a chance of that he may stick around a while yet. And I think Smith also has some good football left in him as well.
You'd cut Guerra loose before he even played a game in brown & gold. Campbell, Ries, Ball, & Kane are facing a challenge that should see them gone unless they step up. But you'd commit to it now before they've given it their best shot. Sewell, Thurgood, and Miller have shown enough to suggest that they'll improve and contribute. I've seen nothing that makes me want to give up on any of the three atm.
You've listed 16 that may be gone after 2006. Even if you only meant 3 or 4 of the eight - Guerra, Campbell, Ries, Ball, Kane, Sewell, Thurgood, & Miller - that's a turnover of 11 or 12 players. That would mean you'd be keeping 27 or 28 current players, considering Kane is on the rookie list. We have six first year players on our list for 2006. 11 players made their debut in 2005, although you have three of those on your potential scrap heap.
So I'll do the maths. In 2007, your Hawks will have aproximately 27 players from the 2006 list. These 13 - Bateman, Brennan, Brown, Clarke, Croad, Hodge, Jacobs, Ladson, Mitchell, Osborne, Taylor, Vandenberg, and Williams are the only current players with more than two seasons (after 2006) experience which you want to retain. Toss in the eight 2005 debutants that you don't say you'd like to see gone - Boyle, Dawson, Franklin, Lewis, Little, Murphy, Roughead, and Young. Christen all 6 unknown quantities - Bailey, Birchall, Dowler, Ellis, Muston, and Tuck - absolute guaranteed guns. Just for argument's sake, put the youngest three players from your scrap heap - Sewell, Thurgood, & Miller - back in the side and we have 30 players.
And then you seem almost certain a different coach is in order. You've annointed your list premiership quality, so certainly another coach is the only missing ingredient to your plan. I'm guessing you mess your pants at the thought of Lethal returning from Queensland to guide the Hawks back to the promised land. At least the thought of it makes for good drama and extra laundry at your house.
Now I have some questions. Where are the other 8 to 11 players on the list coming from? With so many inexperienced players and a big bite taken out of veteran leadership on the field, who is going to cast the magic spell that keeps the 2007 Hawks injury free so that the experience and leadership they do posess can stay on the field most fo the time? Six - or 20% - of these 30 players - and only 27 of them are actually granted spots on your roster - have never played one game of AFL football. Are you counting too heavily on the unknown?
You are right about a few things - THAT MAKES FOR A VERY, VERY YOUNG TEAM. It does not make for a team with much experience. It does not make for a team with much finals experience. It does not make for a team with much depth. There is no guarantee that it makes for a VERY, VERY TALENTED TEAM.
It is unrealsitic to expect great success in a short period of time with the changes you so gleefully predict. In 1978, 11 Hawks made their debut and there was a premiership to celebrate in September. But only four debutants from that year were on the field to celebrate and it was 5 years before the Hawks won another premiership.
In my opinion, there will be no finals for the Hawks in 2007 if only 21 players from our 2005 list are around in 2007. If you are correct and the list is turned over anywhere near as much as you predict, it means that some of the players we have now haven't progressed to the level necessary for Hawk success. It also means the Hawks will have spent 2006 fighting to stay off the bottom rung of the ladder and will be lucky to match the 5 victories they claimed in 2005.
Bottom Line in my book - There will be no Finals in 2007 if a new coach and 11 new players are members of the Hawks in 2007!

 

[fishbowl]

2004 Exodus...A.Cox, Tallis, McCabe, Picioane, Thommo, Barlow and Heebie represented 850+ games
2005 Exodus...Beaumont, Greene, Hay, Holland, Lekkas, Lonie, Nixon and Scott repres.........800+ games
2005 in Spida, Dutchy, Crawf, Barker, Beaumont, Lekkas, Vanders, Smith and Dicko we had 9 players 28 or older in 2005.
HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS for the end of 2006, such is the necessary changing of the guard at every club. 2004 out went 7. 2005 out went 8.
.........My projection for end of 2006...all personal preferences and biases put aside by the black and white of turnover necessity.
(1) JB (2) Joel Smith (3) Spida (to the Swans) (4) Dicko (5) Crawf (retired, after winning the 2006 HFC B&F) these are added to by 3 - 4 more on their 2006 performances.....Guerra (age 24 in 2006), Campbell (24), Ries (24), Ball (24), Kane (23), Sewell (22) Thurgood (21) Miller (21)
.........2007 Capt. Vanders at the helm turns 30, 14/1/07, 2007 being the last season of his new contract. Mitchell, Hodge and Croady doing their Vice captain apprenticeships. With Vanders at 30, the next oldest are Croad 27 March '07, Jacobs 27 June '07 and then Changa 26 June '07.....
THAT MAKES FOR A VERY, VERY YOUNG, VERY TALENTED TEAM FOR FINALS TILTS IN 2007 and 2008......We have the players ! WHO WILL BE COACHING THEM ? 2006 will be sorting out our Coaches' box TOO !

JB is the only one in trouble of that. Spida will stay now, Joel Smith will stay another year, Dicko is a borderline case. Ries and Ball I believe are out of contract and barring a miracle won't be re-contracted. Ellis, Dowler and Muston, if their development is better than expected Ries and Ball will go. Depending on T.Murphy, if he comes along expect Dicko to go as well. Spida will be in the forward line a lot in 2006 and will probably be an exclusive forward in 2007. Crawf will probably retire at the end of 2007 after we win the premiership. He might go on a few more games as he will be in the 290s.

 

[JackHawk]

Thanks to cschreuder61, LoneStar, and fishbowl for their input so far. This time next year will unveil my accuracy or LACK OF ACCURACY. My original provocative post predicted "my" first 5 probable departures, each for varying reasons..........and certainly Spida and Crawf would be their decision-making. These blokes even at 31, are relatively young and know that there is life beyond the boundary line and after footy. They both have other passions. One time back with the Lockett/Dunstall shoot-outs, this one at Moorabbin, I was working with a bloke (Rick). His best mate was a very young Spida, who I think was still waiting for his 1st senior game. Rick was a big bugger too, but we managed to fit both him and Spida in the car with my mate Mick(yet another big bugger.....I was the only earthling in the car ) My point here is Spida hasn't changed. He's just as genuine now as he was then. Back then he rang in crook to the Saints the following week because he wanted to play a game of footy with mates somewhere up the bush, instead of fronting up in the red,white and black. For him to want to finish his career with his mate Bazza, is a 1st CLASS SENTIMENT.
I wouldn't begrudge him that. The Fish and the Spida have been great for us ! An added note Crawf was my 5th predicted departure, of which I reckon any 4 out of that 5. that's 4........ and then add to that, 3 to 4 of the next named group, makes a total of 8 departures, consistent with the last 2 seasons. The glaring stat. here would be " in excess of 1100 games experience " leaving Waverley, that's huge.

 

[Gary Shadforth]

Have to admit JackHawk you have got my few grey braincells left working overtime with your thread-starter comments. You have put a lot of thought into what you have written. I find it difficult to disagree with many of the points you have made.

Oh, by the way, thanks for this thread .. . so refreshing to have someone deep in thought before posting.

 

[WeneedyoungJarmans]

Ball and Ries are guaranteed to go for first.

Then Barker and Thurgood next. That makes 4 to replace the 4 rds of draft picks.

Doubt any more than that unless Guerra doesn't perform, a 1 yr deal may be all he gets with us. Similarly Dixon. Is walking on thin ice with Little, Murphy and Boyle all pushing for senior selection in a pocket somewhere.

Vanders, Crawf, Spider and Smith will remain as anchors until the likes of Hodge, Mitch, Croad, Lewis, Roughead, Franklin, Ellis, Dowler etc form a new leadership group and no longer require their leadership. Those guys will retire and be replaced in 07 and 08 by more draft choices. By then our list will be super competitive, like Stkildas but continuing to inject 2 or 3 best player available choices per season. A trade deal for a senior player or experienced ruckman could take place end of 06 as well.

 

[Binxy]

So we've all given up on Thurgood then?

 

[WeneedyoungJarmans]

So we've all given up on Thurgood then?

i wouldnt say given up. Its not really about that however. Is comes down to what you have to give up to keep him. As mentioned, if Ries, Ball and Barker go 1, 2 and 3, then who goes next?

Thurgood still hasnt improved his body size, is still dealing with new injuries and surgery and needs the most time to develop. Was also a rookie in the first place. Also, he's a HBF. Not a key position or midfielder. Harder to justify the long term investment.

Guerra and Dixon are the others that need to work hard to justify their existence. As small forwards, the likes of Miller and Little should be preferred if they can come on. Also pushing them are Murphy and Boyle for forward pocket roles.

Sewell is one to keep. He has a strong conditioned body, can play midfield, tagger, and defense. Thats all we need from him but has more veratility than Thurgood.

Brennan - again greatly criticised has far more chance than Thurgood. His upside is he is an incredible mark. Played a great game in defence against Geelong. Again, has a more mature body than Thurgood.

As mentioned, we still have Murphy and Boyle on the list. Gilham will be on ACs mind.

Miller - vastly criticised but lets face it, unless traded, he is a unique player we need to keep. Handy crumbers, goal sneaks are a rare commodity and one worth a spot on a senior list.

Have I missed something or what? I'd expect Thurgood to be gone come seasons end unless Guerra and Dixon get given their marching orders first.

 

[cs61]

I doubt we'd get rid of Thurgood before giving him a chance to bulk up because that is the only thing holding him back at the moment. He could play a variety of position cause he has height and pace. Could even slip in the forward line in the future once he strengthens up.

Remember we may only delist 4-5 players next year considering the amount of youth. I suggest we may have a look at a few experienced players next year and not try to draft 7/8 kids anymore. So we don't just have to delist Thurgood for the sake of freeing space.

 

[FatBoy's Wombats]

I doubt we'd get rid of Thurgood before giving him a chance to bulk up because that is the only thing holding him back at the moment. He could play a variety of position cause he has height and pace. Could even slip in the forward line in the future once he strengthens up.

Yeah and learns how to kick for goal Josh will be used down back in years to come as a quick link man, similar to the role played by joel smith.

If you are looking at who will go next year i think JB IF he gets injured will and dicko are the only players of that group who are likely not to be required at the club. Add in ries, ball, campbell, little, boyle, brennan and murphy if they don't develop, and dare i say it miller (unless he becomes accountable) i think will you start to get closer to the mark.

So if we take 1 or 2 of the experienced players
Dicko, Barker
3 players who are stuck in no mans land
Ries, Ball and Campbell
2 or 3 more players who failed to develop
Brennan, Murphy and Miller
You have your 6 draft picks (A father son in there to???) in the so called 2006 superdraft and a trade or to fill gaps and get better draft picks.

You have your exodous.

 

[Grendel]

Kinda with you FBW's.

Really can't see us letting go any fewer than six, mainly the usual suspects that get named.

But we should also allow that there could be a surprise or two, fwiw, I still believe that Clarkson and Everitt don't see eye to eye (not just the height difference either). Possiblities of mid-tier blokes that look settled that might just want a 'change of enviorment'. What if someone like Williams was made an offer from WA for instance, or if Mitchell (this is a hypothetical remember) was offered big $$$ that we couldn't match?

There's always the unexpected that could happen besides just the (seeming) obvious names. I'll be surprised if it's less than six/seven that go at seasons end.

 

[FatBoy's Wombats]

True that Gren. Time will be the judge

 

[andrew coombs]

2007 VANDERS AT THE HELM??!! This perilous thought is enough to drive any self respecting Hawk fan to the nearest cliff face. Frankly if Vanders is still in the senior side in 2007 we will have failed to progress at anything near an acceptable rate. It is distressing enough to have to stomach his captaincy/place in the side THIS YEAR. Please dont go putting ideas in anyones head about 2007.