2008 French Open

[Drummond]

The second Slam of 2008 starts on Sunday and it promises to be a beauty! Undoubtedly there will be some interesting storylines to be played out on both the men and women’s draw.

Rafael Nadal is still undefeated at the clay courts of Roland Garros and he will be the overwhelming favourite to make it 4 straight French Open titles. Coming off Masters Series wins in Monte Carlo and Hamburg; Nadal is in fine form and looks likely to hold aloft the trophy once again. There may be 127 other men in the draw but only 2 loom as legitimate contenders to beat Nadal; Federer and Djokovic. Both took a set off him at Hamburg and both will be a big challenge for the Spaniard. Federer’s confidence against Nadal must have surely taken a beating in Hamburg as he led 5-1 and 5-2 in the first two sets before allowing Nadal to whittle away the lead. He has the game to beat him but does he have the belief?

Andy Roddick is the first major casulty as he has been forced to withdraw due to a shoulder injury. It's a big blow for Roddick as he was playing the best clay court tennis of his career. Lleyton Hewitt is still in doubt as he struggles to overcome constant hip injuries. He has decided to make his way to Paris and will make a decision in the coming days. It would be a shame if he can’t play as he’s quite underrated on the clay. Richard Gasquet is enduring a horror run of form and has split with his coach. He too is contemplating whether to play, but his concern is not injury but form. Three time champion Gustavo Kuerten will probably make his final appearance on the tour.

The women’s side promises to be very interesting with the absence of Justine Henin who was far and away the best clay courter. Last years runner up Ana Ivanovic will be looking to go one step further and with Henin out of her way she is a huge chance to get her breakthrough Slam. She might not be coming into the tournament with the greatest of form but she will have time to find her touch. Soon to be crowned world #1 Maria Sharapova will be hoping to win the title which would give her victory in all four Grand Slams. The clay is her least preferred surface and while I can see her going deep, I don’t think she’s a real threat to win. However her movement has significantly improved which will be a boost for her. Having just come off a Tier 1 win in Rome, Jelena Jankovic will be one of the favourites and rightfully so given she reached the SF’s here last year.

 

[CanonNo1]

Federer’s confidence against Nadal must have surely taken a beating in Hamburg as he led 5-1 and 5-2 in the first two sets before allowing Nadal to whittle away the lead. He has the game to beat him but does he have the belief?

My thoughts exactly. i've watched about 4/5 Federer/Nadal finals on clay and there is no doubt that Federer has the 'game' to beat Nadal. Regularly wins sets and leads 4/5 games to 1/2 in but then for someone reason he 'chokes' up, which he doesn't do on other surfaces. In fact, its almost become expected! Federer will come out firing, serving well, hitting winnners on both sides and dominating, then suddenly he tenses up and starts playing conservative.

The other observation, in the Hamburg final, Federer seemed to 'put away' the drop shots and slice backhands that he used in the early rounds. The slice backhand deep into the nadal forehand is going to be key.

For Federer to win, the question's to be answered are :-

1. Does Federer have the game to win?
Definetly. You don't make 2 French Open finals, a semi and numerous masters series finals on clay by being a 'hack' on the surface.

2. Can Federer beat Nadal on clay?
Again, definetly. He's done it before, and regurlarly 'led' Nadal in matches on the surface.

3. Does Federer have the belief that he can beat Nadal on clay?
???? On face value .... he seems to talk it up pre-game and say all the right things... but on the court it's a different story!

IMO, I think we'll see a 'different' Roger this year, especially in the early rounds. He'll play with far more variety (drop shots, slices, lobs etc) and probably have a couple of tough battles. Same with Nadal minus the 'variety' .. he'll play 'Rafa clay court' tennis, which usually means a brutal day for his opponent.

They'll both reach the semi's ... and you'd imagine so will one of Novak, Davydenko, Nalbandian and Seppi. Throw in a 'random' clay court specialist and you'll have the 7/8 potential semi-finalist.

My tip, if Federer keeps the 'belief' whilst on court, serves well, plays with variety and 'pulls the trigger' early in the rally', he'll win it. If he doesn't and reverts to trying to 'out rally' Nadal then you may as well hand in the trophy to Rafa.

 

[Drummond]

The other observation, in the Hamburg final, Federer seemed to 'put away' the drop shots and slice backhands that he used in the early rounds. The slice backhand deep into the nadal forehand is going to be key.

My tip, if Federer keeps the 'belief' whilst on court, serves well, plays with variety and 'pulls the trigger' early in the rally', he'll win it. If he doesn't and reverts to trying to 'out rally' Nadal then you may as well hand in the trophy to Rafa.

Great post.

You brought up two interesting posts. The first being how he put away his drop shot. In Monte Carlo he used it quite often, especially in the final against Nadal and I thought he had a fair amount of success with it. And yet in Hamburg I can’t remember him using it at all, if he did he used it sparingly. The only thing I can think of is perhaps he’s playing his cards close to his chest but I would’ve thought Hamburg was the ideal place to use it.

The second was his attacking play vs his defensive play. In the 6 games of the first set in particular he was taking it right to Nadal and looking to dominate the rallies. When he takes the ball early, looks to hit the lines, and finishes the play at the net there is no doubt he has the ability to beat Nadal. Then it seems for whatever reason he goes into his shell. The fact that he can get out to big leads in two straight sets is a bit of a concern for Nadal but the concern for Federer is that he seems to get tight and always let Nadal back into the set. It’ll be extremely interesting to see what happens should they meet in the final. The bottom line is that I just don’t think you can beat Nadal over 5 sets on clay.

 

[heals]

Will be a great slam. In perspective the fed should of put away rafa in Hamburg was up 5-1 in the first 2 sets, Not sure whether to put this down to form or preparation or that rafa was an animal in the way he climbed back; but there is NOOO way any player should lose from 5-1 up.

Im not going for the big names such as Federer or Nadal but am expecting the names of Carlovic and Berdych to go late in the tournament.

 

[fightingdreamer88]

I hate that rat-faced Nadal and cannot stand Joke-ovic either. They just...annoy me. Go Fed.

Federer absolutely has the game to beat Nadal, I just want to see Roger ease up on the stubbornness re: trying to out-rally the rodent.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Djokovic to win the mens, and Sharapova to win the women's. Djokovic to take over the no2 ranking and could become World no1 at Wimbledon if Federer falters

 

[stmookeyj]

MENS DRAW

SEEDS
(1) Federer vs Sam Querrey
(2) Nadal vs QUALIFIER
(3) Djokovic vs Gremmelmayer
(4) Davydenko vs Johansson
(5) Ferrer vs Steve Darcis
(6) Nalbandian vs Carlos Berlocq
(7) Blake vs Schuettler
(8) Gasquet vs Serra
(9) Wawrinka vs Kohlschreiber
(10) Murray vs Jonathan Eysseric
(11) Berdych vs ROBERT SMEETS
(12) Robredo vs Coria
(13) Monaco vs Soderling
(14) Tsonga vs QUALIFIER
(15) Youzhny vs Benjamin Becker
(16) Moya vs QUALIFIER
(17) Baghdatis vs Simone Bolelli
(18) Matthieu vs Kuerten
(19) Almagro vs Boris Pashanski
(20) Karlovic vs Alejandro Falla
(21) Stepanek vs Gilles Simon
(22) Verdasco vs Santiago Ventura
(23) Ferrero vs Marcos Daniel
(24) Gonzalez vs Pablo Cuevas
(25) HEWITT vs Nicolas Mahut
(26) Niemenen vs Kiefer
(28) Ljubicic vs Eric Prodon
(29) Canas vs Wayne Osdenik
(30) Tursunov vs QUALIFIER
(31) Seppi vs Ancic
(32) Tipsarevic vs Lapentti

OTHER AUSSIES
Guccione vs QUALIFER (win and play Nadal R2)
Luczak vs Melzer (win and play probably Ferrero)


Only Aussie to attempt to qualify (Joe Sirriani) lost 2nd quallie round to Lisnard 10-8 in the 3rd.

 

[stmookeyj]

WOMENS DRAW

SEEDS AND AUSSIES
(1) Sharapova vs Rodina
(2) Ivanovic vs Arvidsson
(3) Jankovic vs QUALIFIER
(4) Kuznetsova vs Nakamura
(5) Serena vs Harkleroad
(6) Chakvadtadze vs Llagostera Vives
(7) Dementieva vs Vera Dushevina
(8) Venus vs Tzipora Obzilier
(9) Bartoli vs DELLACQUA
(10) Schnyder vs Ekaterina Bychova
(11) Zvonareva vs Stephanie Foretz
(12) Agnes Szavay vs Ayumi Morita
(13) Safina vs Kateryna Bondarenko
(14) Radwanska vs Mariya Koryttseva
(15) Vaidisova vs QUALIFIER
(16) Azarenka vs Edina Gallovits
(17) Peer vs STOSUR
(18) Schiavone vs Craybas
(19) Cornet vs Vakulenko
(20) Bammer vs Wozniak
(21) Kirilenko vs Camerin
(22) Mauresmo vs Olga Savchuk
(23) Alona Bondarenko vs Petra Cetkovsa
(24) Razzano vs Klara Zakupalova
(25) Petrova vs Aravane Rezai
(26) Penetta vs Tatiana Perebiynis
(27) Srebotnik vs Ruano Pascual
(28) Cibulkova vs Angelique Kerber
(29) Medina Garrigues vs QUALIFIER
(30) Wozniaki vs Yvonne Meusberger
(31) Sugiyama vs Alla Kudrayavtseva
(32) Knapp vs Martina Muller


Christina Wheeler lost her final quallie to Magdalena Rybarikova 2 and love, Molik didn't get past Q1 losing 2 and 2 to Zuzana Ondraskova, Monique Adamczak fell 3 and 3 to Carla Suarez Navarro at the same stage and Sophie Ferguson lost 7-5 in the 5th in her 2nd rounder to the same opponent as Adamczak.

 

[Drummond]

My initial observations of the draw:

A pretty reasonable draw for Djokovic. Will face the out of form Canas in the 3rd Round but the list of names he is scheduled to face until he reaches the Semi's shouldn’t give him too much cause for concern. Not many clay court specialists in his section of the draw and he should eventually meet Nadal in the SF. As for Nadal, an Almagro/Nalbandian Quarter will be interesting to see.

If Hewitt plays, he’ll probably get done first up by Nicholas Mahut. Shocking ask first up for Lleyton. Ferrer waits in the 3rd Round should he be lucky enough to overcome Mahut.

Federer has a somewhat tough draw. Has Seppi in the 3rd Round in a repeat of the Hamburg Semi which he comprehensively won. Juan Monaco in the 4th could be interesting viewing. I expect Andreev to be his QF opponent and Davydenko his opponent in the Semi’s.

As for the women, a tough draw for Ivanovic and she’ll be made to earn all of her wins.

Her hypothetical path through to the Final:

1R - Arvidsson
2R - Safarova
3R - [30] Wozniacki
4R - [23] Bondarenko
QF - [5] Williams
SF - [3] Jankovic
F - [1] Sharapova

Should be good viewing because the first four opponents she could face are all easy on the eye.

The potential 3rd Round match between Radwanks v Cornet would be an absolutely beauty. Both are in fine form and are two of the rising stars of the women’s game.

Good chance for Dellacqua to get an upset and confidence boosting victory over Marion Bartoli. I don’t expect her to win but Bartoli is nowhere near the player her 9th seeding gives her credit for and if she wins she could almost reach the 4th Round. I won’t get ahead of myself but if she’s going to improve her ranking, a win shouldn’t be out of the question here.

 

[red+black]

MENS SEEDS

(25) HEWITT

The end is nigh. What will he do when he faces Fed, Nadal or Djokovic in the 1st round. He needs a couple of good efforts at the French and Wimbledon to remain relevant.

 

[Drummond]

Ana Ivanovic (SRB)[2] def Sofia Arvidsson (SWE) 6-2 7-5.

Thought it was a pretty sloppy performance from Ana and I’m glad she got out of it in straight sets. Arvidsson played quite well and really pushed Ana, and if she didn’t play so poorly on the break points she would have been in with a chance of pushing her to the limit.

The stats say Ana had 36 winners and 30 unforced errors but it felt as though she was making more mistakes than winners. Her serving was very shaky and she served far too many double faults. But on the whole a solid win and she will now face the very dangerous unseeded Lucie Safarova in the 2nd Round. If Lucie can get some form Ana will have a tough ask.

And Djokovic down two early breaks to be down 0-3.

 

[pepsi]

Vaidisova gets smashed in 2 sets. What the hell has happened to her? A semi-finalist at Roland Garros not all that long ago and she has completely lost her game.

 

[smoovy]

Ana Ivanovic (SRB)[2] def Sofia Arvidsson (SWE) 6-2 7-5.

Thought it was a pretty sloppy performance from Ana and I’m glad she got out of it in straight sets. Arvidsson played quite well and really pushed Ana, and if she didn’t play so poorly on the break points she would have been in with a chance of pushing her to the limit.

The stats say Ana had 36 winners and 30 unforced errors but it felt as though she was making more mistakes than winners. Her serving was very shaky and she served far too many double faults. But on the whole a solid win and she will now face the very dangerous unseeded Lucie Safarova in the 2nd Round. If Lucie can get some form Ana will have a tough ask.

And Djokovic down two early breaks to be down 0-3.

Agree it was an average performance at best, particularly the second set.

She will struggle big time against Safarova, especially being a lefty. To be honest though I don't think she has a hope in hell of winning the tournament. She has been stinking it up in the clay court season. Battled through to the semis a couple of weeks back, but lost first round the other week.

Has a massive amounts of points to defend as well after making the final last year.

 

[smoovy]

Vaidisova gets smashed in 2 sets. What the hell has happened to her? A semi-finalist at Roland Garros not all that long ago and she has completely lost her game.

Her game has gone AWOL basically since the ausopen. Has barely one a match. I think there may have been an injury in there somewhere. Dellacqua beat her a few months ago and that started the rut.

 

[Kaan]

Hewitt: Mahut then Fish, not going to be easy. Then possibly Ferrer and most likely Robredo if he makes it to the 4th round. Not so hard, but not so easy either.
Luczak: Runs into Ferrero in R2.
Guccione: Runs into Nadal R2.

 

[Ricketts]

Mahut $2.40 to beat Hewey. Hopefully.

 

[Karbo]

Hewitt: Mahut then Fish, not going to be easy.

I disagree, Mahut is hopeless on clay, absolutely hopeless. Hewitt very lucky to play him first up. As for Fish, well, I think I'd be a chance against this guy on clay. Calleri to beat Hewitt in round 2 is my prediction.

 

[ashley12]

Kuerten is out after is losing in straight sets to Matthieu. Shame to see Gustavo go out like that, seeing him at his peak on clay was an unbelievable experience.

Other big outs are Tipserivic and Moya though Murray got through after a 5 setter against a wildcard.

 

[Drummond]

Her game has gone AWOL basically since the ausopen. Has barely one a match. I think there may have been an injury in there somewhere. Dellacqua beat her a few months ago and that started the rut.

She made the QF's here in 2007 so her ranking will take a massive hit when the new standings are released.

I disagree, Mahut is hopeless on clay, absolutely hopeless. Hewitt very lucky to play him first up. As for Fish, well, I think I'd be a chance against this guy on clay. Calleri to beat Hewitt in round 2 is my prediction.

You're right, Mahut is hopeless. I remember watching him at Hamburg v Tsonga and he has absolutely no idea how to play on clay. In fact for a guy who's ranking isn't too bad, he's got a terrible record at all the Slams.

Baghdatis just thumped 6-2, 6-4, 6-2. Made the 4th Round in 2007 so he too stands to lose a few points.

 

[smoovy]

She made the QF's here in 2007 so her ranking will take a massive hit when the new standings are released.


You're right, Mahut is hopeless. I remember watching him at Hamburg v Tsonga and he has absolutely no idea how to play on clay. In fact for a guy who's ranking isn't too bad, he's got a terrible record at all the Slams.

Baghdatis just thumped 6-2, 6-4, 6-2. Made the 4th Round in 2007 so he too stands to lose a few points.

Don't totally agree. He did take a set of of Tsonga and pushed I think Robredo all the way the week before which is no mean feat.

 

[Kaan]

Baghdatis hasn't played for ages, wasn't expecting much better.

Great to see Guccione and Smeets doing well, eliminated R1

 

[Karbo]

Who's the genius at Tennis Australia that decided to give a wildcard to Robert Smeets. He just got pumped 6-1, 6-0, 6-0 by Berdych. Don't we have 4 of the top 20 juniors in the world? Give it to one of them, not Robert f%^&ing Smeets.

 

[Drummond]

Don't totally agree. He did take a set of of Tsonga and pushed I think Robredo all the way the week before which is no mean feat.

That's an achievement? Tsonga himself is terrible on clay!

 

[ashley12]

Was it Smeets that played against Berdych in the Aussie Open either this year or last. Remember he won a 4-setter against an unknown Slovakian IIRC then lost to either Berdych or some other gun.

As much as I hate the guys attitude, I though Bryden Klien should have got the wildcard, given that he is ineligible for juniors. Even Sirianni maybe...

Cant believe how much I have read about how Gooch plays Nadal in the 2nd round. FFS just take it a game at a time.

 

[pro_punter]

I like a couple games tonight to have a bet on.

Ancic to beat Seppi at $1.85

Prodon to beat Ljubicic at $3.80

Soderling and Monaco over 41 games at $1.90