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2008 Odds

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pinkus maximus

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saw this on the brisbane board

$3.50 Geelong
$6 Port Adelaide
$9 Fremantle
$11 Hawthorn,St.Kilda,West Coast
$13 Adelaide,Collingwood
$15 Sydney
$26 Brisbane,Kangaroos
$34 Melbourne,Western Bulldogs
$41 Carlton,Essendon
$67 Richmond

lol how could we possibly go in as 3rd favs after the year we had
 
pinkus maximus said:
saw this on the brisbane board

$3.50 Geelong
$6 Port Adelaide
$9 Fremantle
$11 Hawthorn,St.Kilda,West Coast
$13 Adelaide,Collingwood
$15 Sydney
$26 Brisbane,Kangaroos
$34 Melbourne,Western Bulldogs
$41 Carlton,Essendon
$67 Richmond

lol how could we possibly go in as 3rd favs after the year we had
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With Brock O'Brien in the mid-field next year..... anything is possible.:D
I'm suprised that you could say that. We have had a killer last half of the year.... Harvey will sort em out.
Lets see what happens a little closer to 08.

I must admit we have limited Sepember experience... So it will always be a battle, but the boys will be ready.... I'm sure. :D
 

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Obviously "the market" rates Harvey, and what he can do with this group of players, well ahead of CC. :confused:

Geez, wouldn't we grab it if - with a new and largely untried coach, the possible retirement of our second best player and the possible trading of our third best player, a revamp of the coaching staff, and an almost total rebuild of the midfield - someone offered us a prelim and a 3rd placed finish for next year.... (and with it a launching pad for a flag the year after).

I'd take it.
 
LOL, where did that market come from? I reckon $21 would be about right.

Hawks, eagles and pies great value at those odds.
 
DeChicken said:
I'm suprised that you could say that. We have had a killer last half of the year.... Harvey will sort em out.
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It wasn't exactly "killer". We had our biggest loss of the year (I think) against Geelong at home, and were pathetic against the Saints.

I think our expectations were lowered a lot in the second half of the year, rather than our performances significantly raised.
 
well that is rediculous. honestly i would be happy if we scraped into the 8 next year. unearthed some young midfield talent, and had a real crack at it in 09. can not see us being anywhere other than between 7th and 12th next year. but the dockers are good at springing suprises, usually the wrong type, but maybe next year will be different
 
I don't see how we could be 3rd favourite after this season. Hawthorn West Coast and Collingwood are a much better chance at the flag considering we have never even made it to a GF before. Mind you throw farmer in for a full year that is another 50+ goals + 35+ assists per year.

Our midfield is the problem. Bell is perhaps gone. That leaves Peake (injury prone), JC (good), Schammer (should be at his best), Duffield (skills a problem), Ibbo (inexperience), Foster (inexperience) and O'Brien(inexperience).

I will hold out for 12's
 

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Roundhouse said:
It wasn't exactly "killer". We had our biggest loss of the year (I think) against Geelong at home, and were pathetic against the Saints.

I think our expectations were lowered a lot in the second half of the year, rather than our performances significantly raised.
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We also played very well against adelaide and the Eagles...intensity and skill...somthing we were missing for the whole year
 
Maybe the bookies are linked to Freo and they know we are going to bid for Judd and let him do the fly in fly out thing. :eek:

Ive heard from a "very reliable source" that he wants to live in Melbourne and play for a WA based team but has had enough of WCE's drugged up players.

It seems to be Haselby + pick 7 for Judd to get the deal done.

:D:D:D
 
Lach72 said:
We also played very well against adelaide and the Eagles...intensity and skill...somthing we were missing for the whole year
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We played with skill and intensity the first time we played Adelaide, and on that occassion we were missing Farmer and the Crows had arguably their best player (Rutten) on the park.

We played with as much skill and intensity (in certain games) under CC as we did (in certain games) under Harvey. We also played with no intensity at all (in certain games) under both coaches.

I think the record is slightly in Harvey's favour (3-2 as opposed to 2-3) when you look at their respective games against the same teams. However when you take injuries/suspensions/homegames into account it is arguable as to who got the best out of their teams.

The fact that two of our most insipid performances (Geelong at home and Saints) were under Harvey is enough to bring the notion that "Freo have been more intense and more skillful under Harvey" into question.
 
Roundhouse said:
How do you figure that IP?

We went into this season at a shorter price with CC at the helm.
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We were coming off a prelim though. I'm sure the top 4 teams from this year will all go into 2008 at shorter odds than they were prior to this season.

Edit- just found the TAB sportsbet odds from 6 months ago.

Odds from March this year-
Eagles $4.80
Freo $6.50
Adelaide and Sydney $8
Geelong, Saints and Bulldogs $9
Melbourne $17
Port $21
Collingwood, Essendon $26
Hawks $35
Richmond $51
Brisbane $61
Carlton $71
Kangas $101

Those who got on Port at $21 would be excited now! Kangaroo's were paying $4.50 just to make the 8. Richmond were $6.50 to "win" the spoon, which with the benefit of hindsight was great value.
 
Slacker said:
Anyone here willing to put money on Freo at those odds?
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The fact that those in the top three lines of betting coming into this year failed to make the GF deters me somewhat.

Having said that, we have as good a chance as any team next year given that;

1) with the emergence of Warnock and Gilmore (and a fully fit Sandi) we should now be able to field a competent ruck duo in most games next year even if JLo is finished.

2) All of our players are looking like getting in a full pre-season, which generally means less soft tissue injuries, a better start to the year, and a greater capacity to run out games during the year.

3) Players like Drum, Ibbotson, Foster, Dunn, O'Brien and Collard, who had little impact this year, have taken the necessary steps forward and will provide more depth next year.

4) Bones heal stronger, and people only have one appendix, so Peake and Schammer should be available for selection a lot more next year.

5) We lost a running player before half-time in four of our close losses this year. Surely we couldn't be that unlucky again.

6) Players like Mundy, Crowley, Dodd, and Johnson have all got around 50 or more games under their belt now and could be reasonably expected to start hitting their peak.

7) Tarrant should be at full fitness coming into next year and will a full offseason with Pav to work on kicking and their forward line chemistry.

Our odds are short because the bookmakers know that if things go reasonably well in 08, we are capable of anything.
 
Roundhouse said:
How do you figure that IP?

We went into this season at a shorter price with CC at the helm.
Click to expand...

Just offering a suggestion as to a possible reason - I knoew as soon as I typed it that you'd be on to it....;)

we also came into this year off a Prelim and a 10/12 finish to the year... of course we were rated then...

But it's a different story when we're coming of a 10 win season and an 11th placed finish.
 

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NiGHTFuRY said:
WTF do they have us at $9 for !!????
We've done nothing this season to warrant that... or have I missed something here ppl???
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Can't see the wood for the trees. ;)

I am with Roundhouse, there was very little separating the teams from 2nd to 13th this year and with an ounce of luck/ couple of dodgey decisions not going against us / less injuries to the pacy runners etc we could easily have won 13-14 games.

Our best footy is as good as anyones.

We used 40 players in 2006 - the most of any team - the "injury plagues Eagles" used 34.

http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/seasreview.php
 
Ripper said:
Can't see the wood for the trees. ;)

I am with Roundhouse, there was very little separating the teams from 2nd to 13th this year and with an ounce of luck/ couple of dodgey decisions not going against us / less injuries to the pacy runners etc we could easily have won 13-14 games.

Our best footy is as good as anyones.

We used 40 players in 2006 - the most of any team - the "injury plagues Eagles" used 34.

http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/seasreview.php
Click to expand...
Good post rip, didn't realise that.
 
ImperialPurple said:
But it's a different story when we're coming of a 10 win season and an 11th placed finish.
Click to expand...

NiGHTFuRY said:
WTF do they have us at $9 for !!????
We've done nothing this season to warrant that... or have I missed something here ppl???
Click to expand...

We have essentially the same team that took us to a prelim and 9 wins in a row. We have lost Cook, Parker, Mcmanus and gained Tarrant and Solomon.

Geelong had a bad year last year (11 wins?) coming off the back of a Prelim and consequently were installed at 9$ coming into this year. In that light 9$ seems about right for us heading into next season.

To avoid getting seriously burnt, bookies have to look at what a side is capable of regardless of how bad a year they had. When you think about it, 9$ seems on the money given the scope we have for improvement on our 10 wins this year.
 

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