2012 Draft - Overrated and Underrated

[Knightmare]

Overrated:
Sam Mayes (Likely goes pick 8 on draft day. I rate him in the 20s and as someone who really needs to land in a situation where he can learn off absolutely elite midfielders to become above average at AFL level), Lachie Plowman (Likely goes to GWS at 2/3 on draft day. Is a guy who might end up a medium defender worth this much? Should be taken in the teens for me), Jonathan O'Rourke (Likely goes to the Western Bulldogs at 5. I consider him another who should go more in the teens as he isn't that natural contested ball winner of the other high end inside mids), Sam Colquhoun (Could go somewhere around pick 29 on draft day. For me doesn't do enough to a high enough level with kicking overrated, defensive game not great and below average pace and is more of a late draft selection), Dean Towers (Doesn't have the in-game pace of an Isaac Smith and as an outside type who tests ok he doesn't really go enough on the field to justify a 2nd or 3rd round selection. For me more of a rookie if at all)

Underrated:
Brodie Grundy (Clear top 5 guy of those still available and likely drops to Port Adelaide at 7 if not goes further. Forget needs GWS/Melbourne/Western Bulldogs all making a mistake overlooking this big fella for Plowman/Menzel/O'Rourke or whoever else they like at 3), Jackson Macrae (Tipped to go to Carlton at pick 11 but would take him inside the top 3 if selecting for GWS myself. The next Scott Pendlebury, if slightly ahead of where he was at the same stage), Tom Clurey (For mine the best key defender in this draft and in the words of Stephen A.Smith it's blasphemy that other talls are rated more highly than this fella. Likely goes in the 20s on draft day but worth a selection around 12 and would be one I'd have high on my draft board as a GWS), Dayle Garlett (Getting overlooked for personality questions but personally not fussed and see this guy going on and becoming one of the better players in this draft if he lands in the right situation at a well resourced club. Productive senior player in the WAFL already and can play season one at AFL level. Likely goes around pick 20 on draft day but top 10 quality selection for mine), Nathan Wright (Gets spoken about as a guy who goes in the 20s or 30s on draft day but I'd take him top 20 without hesitation. Has a real hard edge and with his athletic ability and his ability to use it to effect a guy I'm very happy to back him in)

 

[Trav 20]

They do three runs and the best time is the one that "Shifter" and the rest talk about.

Yes, I know.

 

[offshore]

I would be interested in Humble Minion's opinion. Ordinary draft for me especially if looking for good tough mids that can play inside (and can run a bit). I would be focussing on the talls in this years draft - Clurey, Jaeksch, Garner and I think Knightmare is the only one who has picked up on Darcy Fort. He is a steal in the 40's/50's given his dominance in the ruck during second half of the year.

 

[Lazar Goz]

Not many that are Overrated..

Underrated - Rodda, Broomhead, Colledge, Boston, Carter, Lowrie, Wright, Temay, Warrell.

 

[Masto]

I think in general that midfield talent is a bit low and that this is a draft for tall players, especially defenders. I think players like Smith, McIntosh, Rodda, Close and Walshe will all go on to have solid careers.

 

[LBJ6]

I understand where you're coming from Chris, but can't you do this for a number of players? Is Wines the next Jobe Watson, or is he the next Nathan Jones, Brock McLean or, dare I say it, the next Rhys Palmer? Is Jaksch the next Lachie Hansen, a guy who can play both positions but has never mastered either one? Is O'Rourke the next Xavier Ellis, a skinny flanker without a clear position? Will Menzel become like Higgins, the sublimely talented half forward flanker who is injury prone? It's hard to know exactly what these players will become, and there's a range of opportunities for a number of these players.

Don't think Jones deserves to be paired with McLean and Palmer after the year he just had.

 

[Sin City]

Don't think Jones deserves to be paired with McLean and Palmer after the year he just had.

Nothing wrong with McLean's year either.

 

[Tazwegian]

Slightly overrated: Garlett. Beep test in the 12 range or something like that. Will need a fair bit of work if he is to be a midfielder, especially with the 2/2 interchange rule coming in.

Hah! I can get a better beep test than that. Although he could improve it drastically with a decent preseason.

 

[Tazwegian]

I don't have his sprint times from earlier in the year, but I would expect around the 3 second mark so thats probably about right. He appears quicker than he is because he reads the game better than most.

It was 3.15, if I am not mistaken. Bottom 3 percentile, according to those who have the draft results. He had a flu the week before though.

 

[Wargreymon90]

The flu is a pretty good excuse. It would completely drain you

 

[Tazwegian]

The flu is a pretty good excuse. It would completely drain you

For sure, any interruption to your training like that would not be ideal leading into the combine. I am sure they have other times they can use to gauge his acceleration/speed.

 

[swansfan51]

They probably do something silly like watch his 5 u18 championships games or his TAC games with consistently high production instead of paying any attention whatsoever to his combine results.

 

[Tazwegian]

They probably do something silly like watch his 5 u18 championships games or his TAC games with consistently high production instead of paying any attention whatsoever to his combine results.

That would be silly, you're right.

You want to know a player's strengths and weaknesses before you draft him and after you draft him. Watching them play is all well and good, but having solid data is important too. There is always the example of Brody Mihocek when I want to highlight the importance of not having a key weakness that is exposed at draft camp. If he actually is in the bottom 3 percentile in the speed/acceleration, you'd want to know that before you invested pick #1 on him. TAC cup is a lot different than AFL.

 

[Sin City]

Is there any proof Mihocek was on recruiters minds before the combine?

 

[Chris25]

Overrated:
Sam Mayes (Likely goes pick 8 on draft day. I rate him in the 20s and as someone who really needs to land in a situation where he can learn off absolutely elite midfielders to become above average at AFL level)

I would argue that that is true of anyone. Having top talent around you always makes things easier.

Reading between the lines, your critcism of Mayes seems to be the same one I have for Macrae - does he ever move into the midfield, or is just a forward flanker. But in regards to Mayes, he has just so much going for him - an excellent junior career, good form in the SANFL league (which few others can lay claim to), he is a top athlete, a seriously hard worker, and arguably possesses the best kick in the draft.

Personally, I think he'll become a Ryan Griffen/Dale Thomas type midfielder. But even not, he'd still be worth a top 10 pick as a half forward in my opinion. He is just so skilled.

 

[Tazwegian]

Is there any proof Mihocek was on recruiters minds before the combine?

The fact that he was invited to the combine, and not just a state screening, is proof enough that he was attracting plenty of interest. Simple fact is that of course combine results are considered when evaluating players. Whilst they aren't the only factor, and certainly aren't the most important, as if you wouldn't look at the raw numbers when assessing a player's strengths and weaknesses. You'd be a poor recruiter if you didn't.

 

[Knightmare]

I would argue that that is true of anyone. Having top talent around you always makes things easier.

Reading between the lines, your critcism of Mayes seems to be the same one I have for Macrae - does he ever move into the midfield, or is just a forward flanker. But in regards to Mayes, he has just so much going for him - an excellent junior career, good form in the SANFL league (which few others can lay claim to), he is a top athlete, a seriously hard worker, and arguably possesses the best kick in the draft.

Personally, I think he'll become a Ryan Griffen/Dale Thomas type midfielder. But even not, he'd still be worth a top 10 pick as a half forward in my opinion. He is just so skilled.

It will be interesting to see who goes on and has a better career of Mayes and Macrae.

With Macrae I'm just not seeing how he doesn't develop into a full time midfielder after averaging 28 disposals a game in that final month then in traffic does some special things with ball in hand you just can't teach a guy. He is more that outside wing who can shift onto a forward flank at the moment but I see that inside game developing and being among the better inside games once he adds size to his frame. I rate high unreasonably high relative to others but when a guy develops his game this rapidly I'm buying it and betting the rapid development continues. Macrae is not a guy who necessarily in the typical attribute boxes scores max points - only an average kick and pace isn't elite for an outside player and endurance testing not nearly as good as expected but it's those intangibles that make him special with the way he reads the play before it happens getting into perfect position whether it be in a chain or in close, has that awareness of what is around him then that special ability to slow down the game and play at his own pace. Watching him for me is watching Scott Pendlebury 2 years into his AFL careers. He's got the same game and like with Pendlebury at that same stage didn't have that established inside game.

On Mayes I'm not seeing anything that suggests elite midfielder. He's a great finisher around goal but still has the feel of a leadup forward much more than he does midfielder and it feels like he only makes the grade if the situation is right and he has that really elite midfield who can help him develop his game and then maybe down the track he becomes a midfielder. Has the feel more of a Brad Green or Mark LeCras than a Griffin/Thomas and has a long way to be spoken about in the conversation with any of these with a current day Steve Johnson the absolute best case scenario the way I see him.

Something we can come back to in 5-6 years time and by then things should be more clear. I always love a good division of opinion and it would be pretty dull if we all saw every prospect the same. This will in hindsight be one of the more curious ones to look back on and see whether either/or/neither of us get this one right.

 

[Chris25]

Has the feel more of a Brad Green or Mark LeCras than a Griffin/Thomas and has a long way to be spoken about in the conversation with any of these with a current day Steve Johnson the absolute best case scenario the way I see him.

I do think you're underestimating his athleticism. But of course he has a long way to go until Steve Johnson talk. The kid hasn't played a game yet.

But in that same vein, there is no way I could compare Macrae to Pendlebury. The only elite attribute he has is his slipperiness - which is why I've taken to comparing him to predraft Farren Ray. And as Mayes has yet to prove himself as a midfielder, Macrae has yet to prove he has an inside game.It would be a leap of faith for either of them, but I'd go for the one with elite skills myself.

 

[Super Hans]

Taylor Garner is underrated IMO. Talk of him slipping outside the top 20. I think we would be perfect for Richmond at #9, I rate him between 9-15.

Gartlett underrated too. Way to much is being focused on his off field side of thinks, people are underestimating how good he could be.

 

[Offsider]

On Mayes I'm not seeing anything that suggests elite midfielder. He's a great finisher around goal but still has the feel of a leadup forward much more than he does midfielder and it feels like he only makes the grade if the situation is right and he has that really elite midfield who can help him develop his game and then maybe down the track he becomes a midfielder. Has the feel more of a Brad Green or Mark LeCras than a Griffin/Thomas and has a long way to be spoken about in the conversation with any of these with a current day Steve Johnson the absolute best case scenario the way I see him.

Something we can come back to in 5-6 years time and by then things should be more clear. I always love a good division of opinion and it would be pretty dull if we all saw every prospect the same. This will in hindsight be one of the more curious ones to look back on and see whether either/or/neither of us get this one right.

I don't understand why there are issues drafting anything but a future midfielder or key position forward. There is nothing wrong with drafting a medium forward who could potentially turn into a mid. I think with Mayes you are at worst going to get a very good medium forward who can push into the midfield, whereas at best you are going to get an elite medium forward who is also a very good midfielder, similar to a cross between LeCras and Griffin. You compare Mayes to Mark LeCras, I for one would be happy to pick a player of that caliber up with pick 8, he is one of the best medium forwards in the game. Also Mayes is more comparable to Pendlebury than Macrae is imo. Mayes is a really smooth mover, has that agility and knowledge of what is around him, and is a great decision maker. Given the choice out of both I know that I would definitely take Mayes without a doubt.

 

[Quigley]

Mayes I think is becoming underrated. His best position is up forward but he should be able to do stints as part of the midfield rotation. As a HF I rate him higher than Menzel who I think has gone firmly into the overrated category. A lot of the same people who are talking Mayes down for being only a forward seem to rate Menzel through the roof.

Garner massively overrated for mine. Everyone wants to pick the next Fyfe and whilst he has the dodgey shoulders down I don't see him having anywhere near the midfield capacity. He has hardly played the last two years and when he was asked to step up at the Champs he really only had one game where he showed much at all.

Grundy is being really underrated. For me he is clearly in the top 2 for talent this year. He converted from basketball at 16 has played less than 50 games in his life and has never had any specialist ruck training. Nws he was the most dominant ruck by a long way this year and is a dangerous forward prospect. If he does not end up as a multiple AA then I am going to be shocked. He is probably the safest bet in this entire draft and if GWS do not take him in the top 3 they really do not know what they are doing.

Corr is suddenly being talked up as an early teens pick. What exactly has he done to deserve that kind of pick? Good height and athletic sure but he is a slightly above average defender with no offensive game. Even if I was really confident of his stopper credentials I do not pay a pick in the teens for a guy who in effect has my team playing a man short going forward.

Vlastuin was not good enough to warrant a game in the metro midfield this year and yet is now a pick 9 because he is such a gun inside mid. Yeah good luck with that Richmond. They overpaid for Conca a couple of years ago and got the nice solid player everyone thought he was. It looks like they are going to do the same and he will be another nice solid player with a low ceiling.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Mayes I think is becoming underrated. His best position is up forward but he should be able to do stints as part of the midfield rotation. As a HF I rate him higher than Menzel who I think has gone firmly into the overrated category. A lot of the same people who are talking Mayes down for being only a forward seem to rate Menzel through the roof.

Garner massively overrated for mine. Everyone wants to pick the next Fyfe and whilst he has the dodgey shoulders down I don't see him having anywhere near the midfield capacity. He has hardly played the last two years and when he was asked to step up at the Champs he really only had one game where he showed much at all.

Grundy is being really underrated. For me he is clearly in the top 2 for talent this year. He converted from basketball at 16 has played less than 50 games in his life and has never had any specialist ruck training. Nws he was the most dominant ruck by a long way this year and is a dangerous forward prospect. If he does not end up as a multiple AA then I am going to be shocked. He is probably the safest bet in this entire draft and if GWS do not take him in the top 3 they really do not know what they are doing.

Corr is suddenly being talked up as an early teens pick. What exactly has he done to deserve that kind of pick? Good height and athletic sure but he is a slightly above average defender with no offensive game. Even if I was really confident of his stopper credentials I do not pay a pick in the teens for a guy who in effect has my team playing a man short going forward.

Vlastuin was not good enough to warrant a game in the metro midfield this year and yet is now a pick 9 because he is such a gun inside mid. Yeah good luck with that Richmond. They overpaid for Conca a couple of years ago and got the nice solid player everyone thought he was. It looks like they are going to do the same and he will be another nice solid player with a low ceiling.

Mostly agree with this - especially on Grundy and Vlastuin.

I think people are rating Menzel on his x-factor; not sure that Mayes has that to be honest, he kicked one freak goal in the champs but to be honest it was an absolute mongrel and was pretty lucky.

 

[Richo83]

Vlastuin was not good enough to warrant a game in the metro midfield this year and yet is now a pick 9 because he is such a gun inside mid. Yeah good luck with that Richmond. They overpaid for Conca a couple of years ago and got the nice solid player everyone thought he was. It looks like they are going to do the same and he will be another nice solid player with a low ceiling.

I'm not going to comment on the draftees because you clearly know more about them than I do but to me this is a really uninformed comment from you quigley. Before deciding that Richmond overpaid with Conca, who was better at that pick, who should Richmond pick instead? Should Richmond have drafted Heppell, even though he's not really a pure midfielder and you didn't rate him? Should Richmond have drafted Atley? Possibly but the suns passed on Atley numerous times, surely there's more pressure on them than us. Sides like Geelong passed on Atley for Smedts, I don't think they overreached. Atley has never played in the guts like Conca and I question whether his skillset can translate to the midfield. Instead, what North have is a speedy line breaking back flanker, which is great if you're looking for that but Richmond was looknig for a midfielder and currently Conca is

There's a lot of guys who haven't done that much at all in the top 20, but Conca isn't one of them. He's outperformed players like Polec, Cook, Tape, Jacobs and his form seems to be not that dissimilar to guys like Heppell, who I wonder whether can play midfield and Caddy who hasn't played as well as he probably could or should. He's no Swallow, but given Richmond didn't have the first pick, this is not surprising. Conca seems to be the kind of player who is picked up frequently in the top ten of drafts. He seems to be not that lesser in quality to someone like Cunnington, and seems to play like many of the midfielders in the Geelong, Sydney and Hawthorn teams. Most learned football watchers get Conca now, and in fact many Essendon fans, who originally mocked Richmond for picking Conca instead of the more highly rated Heppell now rate Conca. I mean yes I am biased but I would say that Conca is probably in the top half dozen midfielders form the 2010 draft based on performance. Sorry for derailing the thread but I've heard this comment a number of times and it annoys me and it annoys me when it comes from usually well spoken posters. This comment perplexes me.

 

[Slattery_20]

...Conca....

My question is... are you that bothered?
'Twas (at the least) a decent pick.
Might not turn out to be a really great pick, but it's on the cards.

I mean, I keep reading idiots people saying "Heppell can't play midfield". Does it bother me? No, I know he can... we saw it most of the 2nd half of this year. But they're troglodytes who, apparently, find it amusing.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Atley has never played in the guts like Conca and I question whether his skillset can translate to the midfield.

A guy with great speed, great endurance, great evasiveness and a very solid kick doesn't have the skillset to play midfield?