Opinion 2012 Rookie strategy

[76woodenspooners]

I truly think this year feels very different.

And it feels different because of our Rookie strategy.

Normally this time of year we have a whole bunch of new rookies to watch. We squint deep into the crystal ball and try to guess which one of Hunter, Carter, MacNamara, Gordon, Reilly, Perham, Bolton, Cribbin, Smith, Williams, Stubbs, Farmer, Mooney or Hartley will get elevated first.

I've just listed our entire rookie picks for the previous three seasons. Of that list of 14, only 3 remain at the club. And only 1 of those has been elevated permanently to the senior list (Williams). And he'll be counting his lucky chickens that he did, because if he hadn't he'd now be towards the back of the rookie queue.

Counter-intuitively, we went for even more rookies this year! That came at the expense of precious National Draft selections. But there were a couple of things very different to previous years ...

(1) We could elevate up to 2 rookies at the season start (hard to imagine us doing that with any of that list of 14!)
(2) We recruited mature age players

It seems that Hudson was an immediate lock-in for one of those elevation spots.

So it came down to guessing which one of our Rookies - if any - would get offered that other elevation spot. No betting agency would take money for Mooney, such were our expectations of the new recruits. Sure, all the rookies have pedigree, but immediate elevation to Collingwood's Senior team? Hah!

Well, Wowee, haven't we been shown a treat!

Who'd have guessed that Frost would look capable of stepping in for Reid or Brown with little lost? Who'd have guessed that Martin and Dwyer would look such comfortable mainstays of our NAB Cup midfield? Of course, they're no Pendles, Beams or Swan - but no shame in that.

Now we're faced with the dilemma of a four horse race for an elevation spot at the start of the season. We haven't had that kind of return from our Rookie list for a long time, if ever!

A few questions ...

* Does anybody believe that the mature age rookies (Hudson aside) will still have the potential for development that can happen with young Rookies? Or can we see right now what they will become?

* Anybody see any downsides with our Rookie strategy. Could we possibly have done any better?

* How is our Rookie strategy tracking compared with other teams?

 

[Quicky]

This is so true. Can I take a moment to bath in a little retrospective wisdom too. I've been calling for the recruitment of experienced state leaguers for at least a couple of years now and in this short preseason I'm feeling pretty vindicated in those calls! It was the one bow we needed to add to our recruitment arsenal and I am so glad we did this season. And it shows. We did it with a perfect balance this year too.

Q1 - I think all of Frost, Dwyer, Martin show potential development and in that order.
Q2 - I think we have balanced it well this season and were clever utilising our rookie picks in our strategy. You keep your high end picks for potential high end players and play the later more risky pick more conservatively.
Q 3 - We are behind the 8 ball because we have only identified state leaguers as potential recruits this season. You wonder what the retention of our rookies would have been over the last three years if we had been more conservative and gone for mature options (Perham aside) more recently.

 

[mattys123]

This is almost definitely an influence of Rodney Eade I believe now being at the club, and of course Bucks and his desire to win at least one more flag with this group before some of the stars get too old.

Our rookie drafting under Malthouse in the final few years was woeful, yes it may have been tough to get rookies of any kind due to the Gold Coast and GWS advantages in the rookie drafts, but still we didn't even attempt to get mature aged recruits into the club from state leagues until this rookie draft really.

I like the approach, it's been disappointing to watch our VFL side be so uncompetitive for the last few years, so there's also that factor to consider, but there's no doubt we saw an area of our list/rookie list that needed added mature aged depth and took a focus of ensuring we picked up what we needed specifically in terms of position.

Now the obvious question has been "Who gets promoted for round 1?", well on current form there's only one candidate and that's Jack Frost.

 

[Markfs]

Well I've thought for 10 years that mature age rookies is the way to go for ruckman and probably anyone over 192 cms or there abouts. Not that I wouldnt draft a Ben Reid in the first round, just that I think bigger guys generally can take a while to feel accustomed to being so tall..... considering that many are still growing at 17 or 18 when they get drafted. Other sports draft more mature players and it works for them. I think it might make it more difficult to coach out their faults ....or to teach them how to kick, but I'm not surprised that teams are finding good players in their early 20s.

I also think the current recruitiing strategy works in perfectly with a competitive selection strategy..... I dont think many of the players can call themselves certainties for their positions this year. Obviously, Pendles, Swan etc, but the small forwards are in a very large pool and there are only so many spots in the team. I think this is a better overall strategy than having half a dozen rookies who have very little chance of playing senior footy.

 

[ksardog]

Frost
Nothing more needs to be said

 

[jonesy86]

We can elevate 2 rookies prior to round 1 and another mid season.

I think Hudson and Frost now and then Dwyer or Mooney mid season.

Frost due to injuries to Reid and Keefe, and Hudson has done well and if Jolly gets injured, Witts shouldn't be played too many weeks consecutively.

 

[half_back_flank]

We can elevate 2 rookies prior to round 1 and another mid season.

I think Hudson and Frost now and then Dwyer or Mooney mid season.

Frost due to injuries to Reid and Keefe, and Hudson has done well and if Jolly gets injured, Witts shouldn't be played too many weeks consecutively.

Yep, I don't see how we can go any different way.

If a couple of KPD's or Jolly goes down, Frost and Hudson get a game. While we still have plenty of adequate back ups on the senior list for players in the Dwyer, Mooney and Kennedy mould.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Normally this time of year we have a whole bunch of new rookies to watch. We squint deep into the crystal ball and try to guess which one of Hunter, Carter, MacNamara, Gordon, Reilly, Perham, Bolton, Cribbin, Smith, Williams, Stubbs, Farmer, Mooney or Hartley will get elevated first.

I've just listed our entire rookie picks for the previous three seasons. Of that list of 14, only 3 remain at the club. And only 1 of those has been elevated permanently to the senior list (Williams). And he'll be counting his lucky chickens that he did, because if he hadn't he'd now be towards the back of the rookie queue.

Hunter would have pissed it in if not for that ****ing neck injury.

I'm reasonably happy with where we're at in terms of our rookie strategy. Hudson was a great back-up plan and Frost looks to have been a great selection. Those two should be our elevations at this stage. If I had a Mulligan I would have elevated Mooney instead of Williams, in fact I seem to recall I was in favour of this at the time... my concern is that Mooney is a potential freak and I don't want him pulling a Marty and going back to Ireland dissatisfied. If we can promote him at mid-season I'd be a bit less worried, but he was our leading goal-scorer in the VFL in his debut season and we need to encourage kids who perform that well, especially given the sacrifices he's made to play in another country.

I don't think we can expect the same trajectory of improvement from Dwyer and Martin that we would from a Ben Kennedy or a Ben Broomhead, but that doesn't mean they are what they will become already either. I prefer Dwyer on exposed form but there's a whole season in the system ahead.

I wouldn't have minded going after that SANFL key position player that we were linked to, I can't immediately recall his name but he was the younger brother of another draft prospect and apparently had only played a few games... anyway I see getting an effective second tall forward as a succession plan for Lynch as being a pretty high priority. Maybe it's too optimistic to expect one to turn up in the rookie draft, or maybe we're already planning for Darcy Moore and John Haggerty in the next year or so. Maybe we see Grundy as a short-to-medium term key forward prospect while Jolly is still around and Witts is further developed... it's hard to read the tea leaves on that one but we must have some sort of a master plan.

 

[Obese Arachnid]

I'm going to talk more about point three.

For the last few years I've salivated over the Geelong model. I firmly believe since we introduced the stand alone Pies VFL that's the model the club has been trying to follow.

I disagree with an earlier poster that we didn't look to mature players. We had a couple of years KPP prospecting with Thoolen & Casey-Leigh etc. Then we looked at guys like Perham & then we did the double up deals during the compromised drafts, Elliot/Krakouer/Clarke/Ceglar.

The difference I really see this year is we realised we were still playing catch up. Geelong have a wealth of jnr talent. They hoarded them, they've given off fringe players & bought in young guns. Sound familiar?

During this time we have lost a whole football generation, Bucks, Pebs, Clement etc so even though our recruiting has been good, it still left us behind Geelong.

Depth is important as we've found out much to our chagrin, hence the policy change this year.

Of course many other factors come into this but I'm speaking purely from a depth perspective.

 

[Markfs]

No rookie upgrade until they are needed.
Positions on the main list kept open as long as possible.
Upgraded player will play seniors the following week.

 

[istillbelieve]

No rookie upgrade until they are needed.
Positions on the main list kept open as long as possible.
Upgraded player will play seniors the following week.

We have to name 2 rookie upgrades before start of season

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

I think the strategy is sound. At the end of last year there were a number of clear deficiencies in the list: ruck depth, backline transition, defensive midfielder, forward potency. Also consider the success of other teams in recent years with drafting mature age recruits, Barlow at Freo, Podsiadly (to a lesser degree at Geelong); Brett Goodes will likely have a good year with the Dogs this year and in general, Sydney have made an art form of developing older, rejected players into stars, culminating in a flag. It’s fair to say that never before have teams been more receptive to the idea of drafting older recruits and the importance of ‘exposed form’ has begun to really emerge rather than just potential ingredients within younger players.
With these things in mind, the mature age rookies are all meant to address some of our deficiencies. Hudson – providing depth and experience in what looked like a yawning gulf between Jolly and Witts, Frost – a versatile key defender, Dwyer – someone who can kick, Martin – an inside midfielder.
On the last, Luke Ball’s long term fitness is still a question mark. His replacement Josh Thomas has yet to prove he can stay fit. The best options in the draft (Viney, Wines, Vlastuin, Lonergan) all got picked ahead of us. (the Hrovat debate has already been had) Last year we had no one who could lock in the ball at stoppages or lock down on opposition play makers. Martin may not achieve this but he fills a genuine need. I am hopeful that once Josh Thomas and Kyle Martin get more game time and find their feet their upside development will be significant. Both are still young and have displayed talent in finding the ball. It may not be essential for them to be first class in hitting targets or lightning fast. What we need from them is hard contest and the ability to farm the ball out to our other mids.
Frost seems like a real find and we should be well-pleased IMO. Mooney could surprise and should be handled diplomatically, Kennedy is exciting. Looking forward to seeing Broomhead eventually stake a claim as well.
Deciding who gets the nod from our additional rookies is a tough call. On needs basis I'm inclined to say Frost and Martin at this stage.

 

[Gone Critical]

Hudson is a certainty as needed for ruck back up. Frost has also made himself important by demonstrating he doesn't look out of place and we are lacking in this area with Keefe and Gault missing for now. Mooney I would love on the senior list because if he is there I am certain he will get 1st 22 games. Seems the wrong pick now with Williams elevation. Dwyer/Martin haven't stood out enough in areas where we are already better served to make them likely elevations next week

So Hudson/Frost pre season
Mooney hopefully mid season

 

[Markfs]

We have to name 2 rookie upgrades before start of season

Could you please post a link to the AFL site that confirms that teams must enter the season with a specific number of players on their list....... or maybe it says that all positions on the list must be fillled.

I'm unconvinced that Collingwood MUST upgrade two rookies before the start of the season. Excuse me not believing the forum but the AFL is the one that makes the rules.

 

[Markfs]

Could you please post a link to the AFL site that confirms that teams must enter the season with a specific number of players on their list....... or maybe it says that all positions on the list must be fillled.

I'm unconvinced that Collingwood MUST upgrade two rookies before the start of the season. Excuse me not believing the forum but the AFL is the one that makes the rules.

I just answered my own question. I found this on the AFL site

Collingwood is one club which can elevate one or more rookies to its primary list before the cut-off date of March 19, without having to place a player on the long-term injury list.

That means that Collingwood cant upgrade Hudson after March 19 unless Jolly has a long term injury. If thats the case, I dont think he will be upgraded in the next week.

 

[half_back_flank]

That means that Collingwood cant upgrade Hudson after March 19 unless Jolly has a long term injury. If thats the case, I dont think he will be upgraded in the next week.

What happens if Jolly tears a hamstring and Witts is forced to take up the first ruck against a couple of top 4 teams inside a month?

Hudson is a certainty to get elevated imo.

 

[Markfs]

What happens if Jolly tears a hamstring and Witts is forced to take up the first ruck against a couple of top 4 teams inside a month?

Hudson is a certainty to get elevated imo.

You might be right but I think Witts has done enough to suggest that he would be competitive. I just dont think they will add Hudson to the list unless Jolly has a long term injury. However, I wouldnt be surprised if i was wrong.

But if they were going to list Hudson then why didnt they just draft him in the main draft? I suppose they did get to have a look at him over the preseason as a rookie but I dont think there was much doubt that if he was fit, he was going to deliver exactly what he delivered in the NAB cup. The club left two spots open on the main list on purpose to promote competition among the rookies. If Hudson is so obvious to be upgraded then why bother? It will be interesting to see the outcome

 

[half_back_flank]

You might be right but I think Witts has done enough to suggest that he would be competitive. I just dont think they will add Hudson to the list unless Jolly has a long term injury. However, I wouldnt be surprised if i was wrong.

But if they were going to list Hudson then why didnt they just draft him in the main draft? I suppose they did get to have a look at him over the preseason as a rookie but I dont think there was much doubt that if he was fit, he was going to deliver exactly what he delivered in the NAB cup. The club left two spots open on the main list on purpose to promote competition among the rookies. If Hudson is so obvious to be upgraded then why bother? It will be interesting to see the outcome

I just think our ruck division will be too exposed without Hudson being elevated.
Maybe I don't rate Witts high enough yet, but I would much prefer Hudson to be on call against WC/Sydney/Adelaide who all have strong ruck divisions. I don't think Witt's has shown he can run out a NAB Cup game yet, let alone one for premiership points.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Hudson is a certainty. He and Collingwood have both said he will be elevated. Frost is a near certainty, given the injuries to Keefe, Gault, Reid, and the fact that he can play on third talls, and the fact that at least the first three teams we play will have a three pronged attack...

Mooney is probably the next best chance, but we are all aware of the depth in his position, and then probably Dwyer and Martin in that order, with Dwyer probaby just shading Martin for preseason form.

 

[Markfs]

I asked the the club responded by updating the rookie situation.....i'm kidding.

http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2013-03-13/royal-rookie-rumble

I didnt read the news about Hudson earlier so he is a certainty. So much for my theory.

 

[Mame]

Hudson is a certainty as needed for ruck back up. Frost has also made himself important by demonstrating he doesn't look out of place and we are lacking in this area with Keefe and Gault missing for now. Mooney I would love on the senior list because if he is there I am certain he will get 1st 22 games. Seems the wrong pick now with Williams elevation. Dwyer/Martin haven't stood out enough in areas where we are already better served to make them likely elevations next week

So Hudson/Frost pre season
Mooney hopefully mid season

It really does.

 

[blaze036]

Hudson is a certainty. He and Collingwood have both said he will be elevated. Frost is a near certainty, given the injuries to Keefe, Gault, Reid, and the fact that he can play on third talls, and the fact that at least the first three teams we play will have a three pronged attack...

Mooney is probably the next best chance, but we are all aware of the depth in his position, and then probably Dwyer and Martin in that order, with Dwyer probaby just shading Martin for preseason form.

On the contrary, Collingwood just said Hudson is likely to be elevated not a certainty.

Hudson also said his number 1 focus this year will be as a coach not a player

 

[Markfs]

On the contrary, Collingwood just said Hudson is likely to be elevated not a certainty.

Hudson also said his number 1 focus this year will be as a coach not a player

lol...have a look at the link in my last post. The club says that Hudson is a certainty.

 

[blaze036]

lol...have a look at the link in my last post. The club says that Hudson is a certainty.

Well then the club has contradicted itself

 

[Markfs]

Well then the club has contradicted itself

how?