List Mgmt. 2013 Draft Discussion

[Zgope1]

Also i don't agree that Bonts would be any more inconsistent "contest to contest" than any other prospect. The contested side to him game is very underrated on these boards and I think he does something good whenever he goes near the ball

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

Good post The_Bulldogs_Bite. FWIW I've seen a lot more than 5-10 minutes footage but I absolutely understand where you're coming from. I'm not sure if it was directed at me but as you'll see in the write up I'm doing (if I can stop getting distracted for long enough to finish it) I 100% acknowledge Bontempelli's talent. I've said again and again that if he reaches his potential he could absolutely be the best of the draft. However his flaws go against what I feel is 'pick 4 worthy', which is why I'm skeptical on the selection (along with the aforementioned fact that other players around the mark will be more structurally important to us than him). Someone who favours runs on the board more than projections as I do are always going to rate a player like Bontempelli lower than his talent probably exemplifies - however, that's not denying the kid is good, that's just a difference in opinion on drafting philosophies.

Not directed at you, Dan. I do think a lot of posters feed off your opinion though, but that's not your fault.

I agree with your take on Bontempelli. Whilst having his versatility is great, every player needs a 'position' to make their own and given we already have Macrae as that tall agile inside/outside mid/flanker, on paper there seems to be more of a need for a genuine outside finisher (Aish).

 

[Igloo]

What if GWS do something weird and take Bontemptelli at pick #2?

We'd probably take Kelly or Billings, whichever is there.
It's highly unlikely to happen though.

 

[Super Hans]

If we do pick Bontempelli, the one thing I will like about our young list is a lot of the players are flexible (not that Aish wouldn't be).

When I look at our young players (22 and under) I think only three can't play their positions, Libba Talia and Wallis. And those three have been great in their one position.

Smith
Stringer
Hunter
Dahl
JJ
Roughead
Macrae
Hrovat
Bontempelli
Darley

^ all of those have shown they can play multiple roles are are capable of doing so in the future.

Darley-------Roughead----------------
JJ---------------Talia--------------------
Macrae---------Wallis--------Bontempelli
Hunter----------Jones-----------Smith
Dahlhaus------------------------Stringer
------------------Libba------------Hrovat

That's just with the players from the list above, mostly drafted since 2010.

Still plenty of holes to fill, but a good base. Need to nail the next two drafts though.

 

[paul scholes]

Surely out highly touted coaching and teaching at our club could develop Aish's inside game.
Just a few points Aish is touted a better prospect on exposed form.
Playing senior football has to be an advantage .
Aish is the only kid who has been tagged!
An 18 y/ o being tagged is something he can cope with in time.
We're thinking of reasons not to recruit him and to be honest some are just rediculous.

 

[zephskinner26]

Surely out highly touted coaching and teaching at our club could develop Aish's inside game.
Just a few points Aish is touted a better prospect on exposed form.
Playing senior football has to be an advantage .
Aish is the only kid who has been tagged!
An 18 y/ o being tagged is something he can cope with in time.
We're thinking of reasons not to recruit him and to be honest some are just rediculous.

Yeah I would have thought they would back themselves to do this. Maybe its less about Aish and more about how special they think Bontempelli is

 

[Zgope1]

I also think that the club doesn't want to go in thinking "maybe we can work on his inside game" as much as "he really worked on his inside game well". This is a polarising facet comparing the two. Once again, they both had that to work on at the start of the year, one did, one didn't maybe?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Pick 4 Prospect - Marcus Bontempelli​

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Height: I give up trying to figure which report is correct; somewhere between 190-195cm​

Weight: 82kg​

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General Comments: Bontempelli is one of the hardest prospects of this draft pool to rank, sitting alongside the likes of Jonathon Marsh, Cameron Conlon and Cameron McCarthy. No, he hasn't had injuries - the thing with Bontempelli is whether you rank him based on his exposed form, or whether you bite the bullet and rank him on where he could end up. One club is going to bite the bullet and it looks like it might be us. What we will be getting isn't a known quantity, nor is it a sure thing - instead we're getting the opportunity to take a kid who could become one of the more unusual yet unbelievably good midfield talents of the modern era. I say 'could become' more emphatically than I would with most draft prospects at this level, however, the potential is absolutely there. If reports are correct of him being 194cm, this makes him basically the tallest midfielder in the game. Paparone is the same height but plays mostly forward; Blicavs is four centimetres taller but plays mostly as a ruck/forward. This puts him in uncharted territory as even the game's premier tall midfielders - Mundy, Pendlebury, Watson - are shorter. If he can fulfil his potential and provide what he's capable of on a consistent basis, he will prove to be one of the more difficult midfielders to match up on in the game. If he doesn't he may go down with the likes of Gysberts and Morton as a highly-rated tall midfielder taken early and having failed to reach his potential.​

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Strengths: Before I move on to the intricacies of Bontempelli's game, let's get the giant (I say this literally) one out of the way first: he's tall. He's very tall. He makes tall midfielders look...not tall. For a midfielder especially, Bontempelli's height is truly extraordinary and it makes him a really intriguing prospect. The advantages of such a tall midfielder are obvious, giving any side who takes him a dangerous option for kick outs and somewhat of a bail out option in key moments of games. Of course, height's no good if you can't take advantage of it, but Marcus has no such trouble. He has a brilliant leap and an uncanny ability to read the ball in the air; when you combine this with his strong hands and fantastic positioning on opponents, you have an aerial threat unlike anything you're likely to see through the midfield without him. I just hope for our sake BT doesn't commentate too many of our matches because he's the kind of prospect that he'd probably cheat on 'Big Boy' for. Back on topic.​

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His height not only provides him with physical advantages through the midfield, but also helps his versatility. At key position height, and with a strong mark, he's also a handy forward option. He's not quite as strong through the body yet as you'd want him to become (as a comparison of weight Boyd's only about 4-5cm taller yet has just under 20kg on him) and thus doesn't have the ability in one-on-one contests that you'd like to see in a genuine KPP, but what he does have going for him is both smarts and athleticism. Additionally, he's shown an ability to play off of a back flank and provide some divine rebounding, but I wouldn't be playing him there at AFL level, personally.​

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Bontempelli is an incredibly smart player. To put it in a context that we'll understand, think of Gia. You can see his mind clicking over as he plays, constantly weighing up options and predicting how the game is going to unfold ahead of him. This is how I see Bontempelli, both when setting up play and working to get his hands on it. As a defender you may be stronger than him and you may be able to out-muscle him if it comes to a one on one contest, but you're going to have to work very, very hard to out compete him. This is a combination of exceptional positioning and sheer athleticism. With ball in hand this is also a valuable attribute as he's able to make the right decision and set play up beautifully.​

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As for his athleticism: first of all, he's extremely quick for his height. Off the mark he has a very handy burst which is incredibly deceptive. It's not so much constant, steady acceleration, as after that initial burst it does plateau a little, but initially he's going to break away and form some distance on his direct opponent when he plays up forward. It's not a super burst and it's not going to rival those renowned speed merchants on the outside but when you combine it with his other attributes it's very effective. While that secondary acceleration isn't anything special he does have quite good speed once he gets going. Combined with this is a very good endurance base and that's something that can't be understated. Very few key position height players come through the U18s ranks with a tank even mildly close to Bontempelli's - yet another aspect that makes him unique. He's also quite agile and has very little trouble getting around players once he gets going.​

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Through the midfield two things stand out to me: his composure, and his ability at ground level. He's never going to give you inside grunt to a Liberatore extent but what he is going to give you is a lot of meterage gained from contests. Under pressure his disposal is exceptional, really creating some drive out of congestion. He has sublime vision and does everything you want out of a scrap - gets the ball forward and kicks to a contest you have a chance of winning. On the outside his kick is good without being anything exceptional but making a bad decision is a rarity for him. One of the "wow" factors with his game for me is how well he competes for the ball at ground level; I don't think I'll ever get used to seeing a guy his size scrap for a ball like a 183cm midfielder. Your smaller guys are always going to have the advantage in these contests but Bontempelli does absolutely everything you'd want from a player like him, competing hard below the knees and not being afraid to put his body on the line. He also doesn't get too carried away inside the contest and spreads very well, allowing himself the opportunity for more space and time, and, with his decision making as good as it is, this is a very good thing.​

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I debated whether to put this in or not but I will anyway: he's also by all accounts a top bloke. Has apparently interviewed well with a number of clubs. Good leadership qualities, and, most importantly, he genuinely wants to get better and will take every opportunity given to him.​

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What He Needs To Work On: I spent a lot of time harping on about the positives of his height in the above section, but now it's time to look at the flip side. You'll notice that I said, "... for his height," a lot in the 'strengths' section and this is a bit of a problem. On the outside he's never going to have the speed of your common outside midfielders, and on the inside he's never going to come away with the ball from a contested situation as much as your 183cm inside midfielders. For his height he has a very good burst of speed and is very good below his knees, but when you rank every player on these attributes he's never going to be ahead of your 'usual suspects' in those positions. Of course he's not going to be playing the same role as those sort of guys and he has the best of both worlds (as well as being very good overhead, something he has over these players), but it's still a little bit of an issue for me. At AFL level I see him being caught a lot more and I also see him struggling to have as much of an impact against those inside midfielders, so his improvement will need to be significant. His athleticism holds him in good stead but it's still a little worry that I have.​

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The next two go hand in hand: inconsistency and a less than impressive inside game. Let's address the latter first. I've said that he scraps for the ball hard, can win it, and is good below his knees, yes, but sometimes he really doesn't judge when it's "his turn," if that makes sense. No, it really doesn't. Let's try that again. Occasionally I've noticed him somewhat stuck between two minds in terms of his positioning. He definitely favours the outside and he needs to get a little bit quicker at reading the play and deciding whether to enter the contest or sit on the outside. Too many times he's sitting on the outside (in a fantastic position, mind you; ready to do some serious damage if the ball gets to him) when his team is outnumbered at the contest. This leads to him being set up offensively when the ball is in the hands of the opposition, and as that taller midfielder it's really difficult for him to make up ground quickly on those smaller outside guys. It's why he looks so poor defensively - while he has no issues tackling and will absolutely chase someone down if it's required of him, he's so often in a bad defensive position that it makes it really difficult for him. He's still developing that inside game so I won't criticise it too much, but it really does need improvement. I think half of the problem with the aforementioned positional inconsistency is that he's not confident in his inside ability, and once he addresses this I feel he'll be much more comfortable with going into contests rather than looking for space. He's also very patchy over the course of an entire match, and when the above sides of his game improve I'm quite sure that will also more or less correct itself.​

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Now to his kicking. Yes, I did just tell you that he's an excellent kick out of traffic and no, I'm not losing the plot (well, that's debatable). The problem for me with his kicking is that he has an inside midfielder's kick as an outside midfielder. Now, I'm not talking a Matthew Boyd kick here, and I'm not saying his kicking is a massive problem in his game. It's an effective kick out of contests for all of the reasons I expressed: it gains ground, is well placed and often goes to winnable contests. However, on the outside and in space his kick really doesn't improve a whole lot. It's long and it's accurate but it's rare to see him lower the eyes and target a leading forward with a pinpoint pass. Most of his kicks are long to contests and while this isn't necessarily a bad thing, he just isn't as damaging as I'd like an outside midfielder to be. He's almost like the anti-Billings - dangerous under pressure, not so damaging in space. It's probably something that can be fixed and it's not a massive issue but it's worth mentioning.​

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This isn't so much a weakness as it is a personal question derived from his weaknesses, however: where does he play? What's his role? He's a tall inside/outside midfielder who can rotate forward Dan, you moron. The problem for me is that, while he is versatile, he has a weakness stopping him from dominating every position on the ground. Inside midfielder? He's still working on that inside game. Outside midfielder? He doesn't really have that pace or the damaging disposal. Key forward? He doesn't have the strength one on one and, to date, hasn't shown much up there. Back flank? Again, not great one on one and not strong enough defensively. All of these things can be worked on but with high picks you want someone who you know can dominate set positions. Comparing him to somebody like Billings, Bontempelli has shown more through the midfield but he's yet to really dominate it. Billings, on the other hand, has question marks hanging over him relating to his ability (or lack thereof) to translate his form into the midfield - however, he has dominated games up forward countless times. See the difference? I genuinely worry with Bontempelli that he may end up a jack of all trades, master of none, and while versatility is a great strength to have, alarm bells ring in my head when it's at the expense of exposed form in a set position.​

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We all know this one so I won't dwell on it too much, but what Bontempelli's shown and what we expect him to be capable of are two very different things. He's played some solid games this year but none that I've seen have really blown me away. I'm going to re-watch a few of my tapes and keep a very close eye on him, but for now I'm sticking to my guns on this one. His form has been good but nowhere near top 5 pick good and this is where the discrepancy between ratings comes from. People are rating him based on what they think he'll become, and while this kind of predictive work is what makes the difference between a good recruiter and a great recruiter, with Bontempelli I feel as though the difference between exposed and expected form is a bit larger than you'd expect from a top five pick. I also disagree that his late birthday makes this okay.​

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How He Fits: This is where I'm a little lost and it's where my major objection to using pick 4 on Bontempelli comes in. First, let's reflect on our list. Our midfield is absolutely packed with young talent but their flaws are obvious. Look at it - Stringer, Macrae, Hrovat, Hunter, Smith, Wallis, Libba, Stevens, Darley. None are fast, few of them have genuinely elite disposal, so on and so forth. Those on our list that provide what we're missing all have question marks - Higgins (injuries), Dahlhaus (not in the midfield yet), Tutt (lol), Pearce (more of a small lockdown defender imo and no guarantee to make it), Howard (double lol), JJ (will he transition there?). Bontempelli provides some height, yes, and I'm not denying that we need that. However, I just struggle to see how he fits into a structure. Yes, you rotate him into the forward line - but you can't play Stringer, Bontempelli, Grant, Crameri, Jones and Campbell all in the same side as much as you'd like to. It's tough to see where he comes into it.​

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His kick strikes me as an incredibly effective kick out of contests as I've discussed already, but in space I just haven't seen him be as damaging as I think our list needs. With the likes of Libba, Stringer and Macrae we've already got those sorts of players who can effectively distribute the ball from congestion but we don't have that guy on the outside to tear the opposition to shreds with pinpoint passes. I'm not convinced that Bontempelli is that guy.​

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If he becomes the player he could become, you'd slot him in no dramas. The problem I see is that if we keep denying our list some genuine outside speed and skill, we're going to end up with an incomplete list peaking all at the same time but not having the balance to progress as far as the talent on our list suggests we should. It's never an excuse to take a lower rated player who fills a need, absolutely not - but there are likely to be players who have shown more and fill more of a role available at pick 4 than Bontempelli does.​

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My Verdict: Is it a call I'd be making? No. I would be taking Aish, and if we really felt as though we needed a bit of extra height I'd be taking Kolodjashnij. However, Bontempelli has the potential to become one of the best players of this draft class and if we completely believe that we can get the best out of him then we should be taking him.​

 

[Jonno94]

Much wow, nice work.

 

[Zgope1]

Great write up Dannnnnnnnnn you've done well mate.

The only thing i'd really disagree with you is i think you've underrated his inside game (not by much, it's not like you were pure negative about it).

After the championships he went back to the tac cup and changed position somewhat, he got put in the centre square more as opposed to wing and half back that he had been playing. He instantly dominated in tight. For the rest of the season that he played in the guts he was getting more than 5 clearances a game, huge numbers, which happened to even out his low numbers from not playing in that position at the start of the year to an average of 4.3 for the season, pretty good. In other words, i do think he can provide actual grunt on the footy.

The player on our list i would compare him to most is Libba although he's not as good inside (who is) but he's far better on the spread. That's just my take, and i truly appreciated yours, it's well written and very much on the money.

 

[The_Bulldogs_Bite]

Phenomenal write-up, Dan.

I'll highlight a few key points.

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I spent a lot of time harping on about the positives of his height in the above section, but now it's time to look at the flip side. You'll notice that I said, "... for his height," a lot in the 'strengths' section and this is a bit of a problem. On the outside he's never going to have the speed of your common outside midfielders, and on the inside he's never going to come away with the ball from a contested situation as much as your 183cm inside midfielders. For his height he has a very good burst of speed and is very good below his knees, but when you rank every player on these attributes he's never going to be ahead of your 'usual suspects' in those positions. Of course he's not going to be playing the same role as those sort of guys and he has the best of both worlds (as well as being very good overhead, something he has over these players), but it's still a little bit of an issue for me. At AFL level I see him being caught a lot more and I also see him struggling to have as much of an impact against those inside midfielders, so his improvement will need to be significant. His athleticism holds him in good stead but it's still a little worry that I have.

This is my main concern. Where does he play? Versatility is great in that he can be thrown around, but I do worry that with added kgs he isn't going to get any faster. Therefore, that leaves him a little vulnerable in the midfield, where if we pick him that is where I suspect we will play him. The inside/outside capabilities look good at the moment and both can be further improved, but as you said, he'll be playing against 180cm-odd mids who are simply quicker.

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This isn't so much a weakness as it is a personal question derived from his weaknesses, however: where does he play? What's his role? He's a tall inside/outside midfielder who can rotate forward Dan, you moron. The problem for me is that, while he is versatile, he has a weakness stopping him from dominating every position on the ground. Inside midfielder? He's still working on that inside game. Outside midfielder? He doesn't really have that pace or the damaging disposal. Key forward? He doesn't have the strength one on one and, to date, hasn't shown much up there. Back flank? Again, not great one on one and not strong enough defensively.

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See above. Agreed.​

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I think having Macrae on the list already makes the choice of Bontempelli a little harder to understand on a needs/position basis. Macrae is that tall inside/outside player who isn't quick, but is agile, who isn't elite by foot, but neat. Do we need two of them?​

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My Verdict:

Is it a call I'd be making? No. I would be taking Aish, and if we really felt as though we needed a bit of extra height I'd be taking Kolodjashnij. However, Bontempelli has the potential to become one of the best players of this draft class and if we completely believe that we can get the best out of him then we should be taking him.

It's an interesting point. Aish (and even KK) suit our needs better in theory. However, if we feel that Bontempelli can be the best player in the draft or close to, then we do need to back in our development program to make that a reality, rather than taking a perceived safer option.

The question is simply do we think Bontempelli can become the best player (or thereabouts) in the draft? If we do, bypass our needs, and develop him. The more elite players on your list, the better chance you are of winning a Premiership. We have a good young list, but we do require some more star power.

 

[Dav1d]

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His kick strikes me as an incredibly effective kick out of contests as I've discussed already, but in space I just haven't seen him be as damaging as I think our list needs.​

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Sorry, but the only thing I disagree with from your write up.

The rest I pretty much absolutely agree with though.

Not sure if you made a criticism of this; but sometimes I think his disposals are too safe, like he doesn't choose the most dangerous option and rather plays the safe option..though a lot of this faults in his game could easily be removed from his games after a few pre-seasons.

So I guess non-creative or something along those lines..

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

God damn it!!!!!! I was okay with us taking MB over Aish but now I'm not again!!!!!!!

DALRYMPLE!!!!!! DO THE RIGHT THING!!!!!!!!!

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

 

[gimp!]

God damn it!!!!!! I was okay with us taking MB over Aish but now I'm not again!!!!!!!

DALRYMPLE!!!!!! DO THE RIGHT THING!!!!!!!!!

How does he know which one you want tomorrow though?

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

It's in the thread somewhere, but after all the back and forth at P.4, I'm more interested in P.42. Who's in the mix? Conlon, Kolojashni (other one), Thorp (perhaps we are playing cat and mouse), Garlett (?) ... who else?

 

[igloo dweller]

ha! the calamity!reading the WB BF meltdown since MB's firming for pick four is like the reactions of 7 year old watching disneyland burn to the ground!

so to add a little fuel...our recruiting staff have been known to make big calls with high risk/reward - mccrae was the bolter last year, stringer the slider that didn't slide because we plucked him, and, er, the whole christian howard fiasco that just. won't. end. ugh. 2 out three ain't bad.

i only know the prospects through BF, so i wouldn't know arse-from-elbow. it seems aish is the guy. but given the recruiting department's recent propensity to making big calls, MB at four is a big possibility.

....the apocalypse is coming

 

[Dav1d]

ha! the calamity!reading the WB BF meltdown since MB's firming for pick four is like the reactions of 7 year old watching disneyland burn to the ground!

so to add a little fuel...our recruiting staff have been known to make big calls with high risk/reward - mccrae was the bolter last year, stringer the slider that didn't slide because we plucked him, and, er, the whole christian howard fiasco that just. won't. end. ugh. 2 out three ain't bad.

i only know the prospects through BF, so i wouldn't know arse-from-elbow. it seems aish is the guy. but given the recruiting department's recent propensity to making big calls, MB at four is a big possibility.

....the apocalypse is coming

Did Dalrymple select Howard? Reading the phantom drafts from that year, Howard went about 40+ picks earlier then when we picked him

MB isn't that big of a deal, not like for examples sake its not as much a meltdown as when it was suggested Chris Dawes for our 3rd first round pick

 

[stefoid]

Quayle describes him as a 'runner' - she describes Kelly and Kalashnikov the same way. If we are taking him at 4 its because we see a big mid who can take marks around the ground, rotate forward to good effect, and drag a tagger to the goal square if he needs to.

You can see how a marking 194cm mid drifting into the forward area is really going to give opposition defenders the willies.

Still prefer Billings though.

 

[Mutt]

Interesting that you mentioned Gia in relation to Bontempelli Dannnnnnnnnn - one of the Hawthorn recruiters has apparently quipped that Bontempelli is like Gia inside Jeremy Howe's body.

 

[Tommycash]

Apart from Boyd, do we have any other players who's name starts with B? Cause maybe we want another B? We don't have any A's do we? There goes that nonsense.

Interesting that you mentioned Gia in relation to Bontempelli Dannnnnnnnnn - one of the Hawthorn recruiters has apparently quipped that Bontempelli is like Gia inside Jeremy Howe's body.

Baby, baby.

 

[stefoid]

Here is some interesting discussion on the pies board, given we basically control who is available for their first pick.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/collingwood-guide-to-the-2013-afl-draft.1041307/

 

[fronkalicious]

If bontempelli is as smart as some are suggesting, makes great decisions, uses it well, has vision, composure and is a high character guy, I can live with that. He's going to be a lot of fun to watch either way by the sounds. A truly unique player.

On pick 42, what type of player are you guys hoping we take? Speed, key forward (Harvey?), creative half-back? I wonder whether we might take a flyer on wasley-black given our seeming obsession with rangy left footers.

 

[Gghippo]

Was really hoping we'd select Aish, I just feel he is the type of player we are missing. We must be confident our outside players in Tutt and Darley will fulfil this role going forward...

I'm with Dannnnnn and prefer a known quantity than a speculative pick at #4. I really hope Bonts doesn't turn out to be a Tim Walsh.... I'll back our recruitment/development team to make the right decisions as they have more information, experience and knowledge than I will ever have to hand in making a recruitment selection. But a question to ponder.... if Aish hadn't had shoulder surgery and an interrupted season, would we even be discussing the possibility of picking him up at #4?

 

[stefoid]

Pick 42 you take the best available, regardless, I hope.

I don't see the logic behind narrowing a field of less-likely-to-make-it players even further by restricting the type of player you go for.

If its reasonable to address needs with your first pick (no clear standouts) then thats when you do that, IMO.