Ironmonger
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 13, 2001
- 10,507
- 17,906
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Melbourne Victory
With less than a week until the start of the season, I'd like a place to kick around thoughts on the season ahead without being yelled at by supporters of opposition clubs who I don't think will make the finals. (Adelaide not in top 8???!!! lololol u mad bro etc...)
So to kick it off here are my thoughts:
Premiership: Fremantle
Everyone seems to think it's out of Hawthorn, Sydney and the Dockers and it's hard to argue. But there's all kind of reasons why it's hard to go back to back and I have some misgivings about how hard the Hawks seem to be going in the pre-season. I reckon there's a strong chance they'll be overhauled late in the season a la Carlton in 96, Essendon in 2001 and Geelong in 2008.
And I just can't get excited about Sydney this year. They seem to be hobbling through the pre-season, even more so than usual, although those at Burpengary yesterday may have a different view.
So it's the Dockers for me. They look strong pretty much everywhere and could get even better with a fit Pav and integrating Sylvia into the team.
Dark Horses: Richmond and West Coast
Of the others, I reckon these are the two most likely.
The Tigers because their team looks sensational on paper. Great backline, great midfield, pretty good forwardline. And Maric will be very handy when he gets back in the second half of the year in the ruck. I reckon they've recruited very well the last few years and have actually built quite a deep list. That said, they seem to have a lot of inconsistent types. If they lose confidence they could fall away badly, but I reckon the upside is high.
West Coast also have a great squad. Most of the same squad that got them to 4th and 5th in 11 and 12. If last year was an aberration, then they could easily challenge again. The big issue for them is that the midfield is full of blokes with iffy disposal. A return to form from Gaff would make a big difference.
Slider: Adelaide
This might seem an odd choice because they only finished 11th last year. But maybe it'll make more sense if I say their percentage of 108 might drop a point or fifteen. The big issue they've had the last couple of years is in the forwardline, and others might disagree, but I just don't see Betts and Podsiadly making much difference. And all of a sudden their midfield looks really shallow. Vince is gone, Van Berlo will miss a large chunk of the season, Thompson is ageing. They need a lot of the grunt work to be done by Sloane, Douglas and the youngsters. Apart from Dangerfield, it's hard to pick too many really good users of the ball.
I really rate their kids. Just not quite to take over the heavy lifting just yet. A transition year for the Crows.
Bottom four: Western, Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda
Melbourne, GWS and St Kilda are pretty self explanatory. The Dogs are the team others might disagree with, but I really don't rate them at all. Forwardline iffy, backline iffy (although Roughead is definitely improving), midfield as a rule not good enough with ball in hand. Everyone bangs on about their youth but aside from Liberatore it was the old hands doing the work last year. They need a couple of years for some of the younger damaging types like Macrae and Stringer to develop before they put some distance between themselves and the bottom few.
Honourable mention to Gold Coast in this category. I reckon young teams get better in fits and spurts; just because they improved a lot in 2013 doesn't mean they'll improve a lot in 2014. To me at least they still look like a really young team highly reliant on one player and that doesn't sound like a recipe for short term success.
Us: 12th
Ahead of the six teams mentioned above. But with the caveat that five or six key injuries could really lay us low, probably more so than anyone else.
But as things stand we have a few things going for us - most importantly, we have a critical mass of 20-25 yo players who've developed the game sense, composure and physicality needed through fighting their way into the first 22 and staying there. That's the engine for our success and growth in 2014. Unfortunately, we still have a lot of the same old problems, in particular in the forwardline, and consistent disposal, and that'll prevent us from going any higher.
OP a bit longer than I wanted. Sorry about that.
Thoughts?
So to kick it off here are my thoughts:
Premiership: Fremantle
Everyone seems to think it's out of Hawthorn, Sydney and the Dockers and it's hard to argue. But there's all kind of reasons why it's hard to go back to back and I have some misgivings about how hard the Hawks seem to be going in the pre-season. I reckon there's a strong chance they'll be overhauled late in the season a la Carlton in 96, Essendon in 2001 and Geelong in 2008.
And I just can't get excited about Sydney this year. They seem to be hobbling through the pre-season, even more so than usual, although those at Burpengary yesterday may have a different view.
So it's the Dockers for me. They look strong pretty much everywhere and could get even better with a fit Pav and integrating Sylvia into the team.
Dark Horses: Richmond and West Coast
Of the others, I reckon these are the two most likely.
The Tigers because their team looks sensational on paper. Great backline, great midfield, pretty good forwardline. And Maric will be very handy when he gets back in the second half of the year in the ruck. I reckon they've recruited very well the last few years and have actually built quite a deep list. That said, they seem to have a lot of inconsistent types. If they lose confidence they could fall away badly, but I reckon the upside is high.
West Coast also have a great squad. Most of the same squad that got them to 4th and 5th in 11 and 12. If last year was an aberration, then they could easily challenge again. The big issue for them is that the midfield is full of blokes with iffy disposal. A return to form from Gaff would make a big difference.
Slider: Adelaide
This might seem an odd choice because they only finished 11th last year. But maybe it'll make more sense if I say their percentage of 108 might drop a point or fifteen. The big issue they've had the last couple of years is in the forwardline, and others might disagree, but I just don't see Betts and Podsiadly making much difference. And all of a sudden their midfield looks really shallow. Vince is gone, Van Berlo will miss a large chunk of the season, Thompson is ageing. They need a lot of the grunt work to be done by Sloane, Douglas and the youngsters. Apart from Dangerfield, it's hard to pick too many really good users of the ball.
I really rate their kids. Just not quite to take over the heavy lifting just yet. A transition year for the Crows.
Bottom four: Western, Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda
Melbourne, GWS and St Kilda are pretty self explanatory. The Dogs are the team others might disagree with, but I really don't rate them at all. Forwardline iffy, backline iffy (although Roughead is definitely improving), midfield as a rule not good enough with ball in hand. Everyone bangs on about their youth but aside from Liberatore it was the old hands doing the work last year. They need a couple of years for some of the younger damaging types like Macrae and Stringer to develop before they put some distance between themselves and the bottom few.
Honourable mention to Gold Coast in this category. I reckon young teams get better in fits and spurts; just because they improved a lot in 2013 doesn't mean they'll improve a lot in 2014. To me at least they still look like a really young team highly reliant on one player and that doesn't sound like a recipe for short term success.
Us: 12th
Ahead of the six teams mentioned above. But with the caveat that five or six key injuries could really lay us low, probably more so than anyone else.
But as things stand we have a few things going for us - most importantly, we have a critical mass of 20-25 yo players who've developed the game sense, composure and physicality needed through fighting their way into the first 22 and staying there. That's the engine for our success and growth in 2014. Unfortunately, we still have a lot of the same old problems, in particular in the forwardline, and consistent disposal, and that'll prevent us from going any higher.
OP a bit longer than I wanted. Sorry about that.
Thoughts?
). Forward pressure, ruck stocks, KPDs, wingers, Geelong are undermanned in these areas. If Hawkins goes down or is troubled by injury then they're pressing the panic button. Lots of older guys too. They rely too heavily on Johnson and Selwood.
