List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Prospects

[Manimal_Dunstan]

That one was for you.... xo

Seriously though, looking at the top 5 teams;

Sydney: Tom Mitchell, Brandon Jack, Shane Biggs, Tim Membrey
Hawthorn: Jordan Kelly, Angus Litherland
Fremantle: Tom Sheridan, Hayden Crozier, Tanner Smith
Geelong: Jordan Murdoch, Jordan Schroeder, Shane Kersten, Jackson Thurlow
Port: Aaron Young, Karl Amon, Ben Newton

I left out the first year players (mostly) as they don't tend to be moved on...

Litherland getting games in a premiership worthy team won't leave
Smith if he is any good they won't move him on with McPharlin almost done
Kersten, Murdoch are best 22 so doubt they're going anywhere no chance they'd trade Thurlow either IMO.
Young just re-signed not long ago.

Pick a better list, that was a slack effort.

 

[Barrels]

Litherland getting games in a premiership worthy team won't leave
Smith if he is any good they won't move him on with McPharlin almost done
Kersten, Murdoch are best 22 so doubt they're going anywhere no chance they'd trade Thurlow either IMO.
Young just re-signed not long ago.

Pick a better list, that was a slack effort.

Might as well as the question though, otherwise we never know if we're a chance at these blokes... Kersten for instance has only been Best 22 for a few weeks. You would have missed Macmillan from North too, I edited the post late.

Thoughts?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Might as well as the question though, otherwise we never know if we're a chance at these blokes... Kersten for instance has only been Best 22 for a few weeks. You would have missed MacMillan from North too, I edited the post late.

Thoughts?

Kersten was injured for most of 2014 until he got into the Cats side and MacMillan also injury is the reason he is out of the North side had a fractured leg injury.

 

[Barrels]

Kersten was injured for most of 2014 until he got into the Cats side and MacMillan also injury is the reason he is out of the North side had a fractured leg injury.

Both can play though. I'm intrigued by Norf's Brad McKenzie too, if only for the fact that he is always mentioned as having a magnificent left foot kick...

21, 186/84 is a great size for a modern mid or HBFer... And as far as us having too many already, I say again, elite foot skills....

 

[Defacto]

Yep, if we are pick #4, I'd be going Brayshaw then take McKenzie or Keitel with a later pick

Regardless, we're getting Jon Patton at the end of next year so I'm not too fussed

picket and durdin are well ahead of brayshaw IMO

i'd punt on pickett

 

[Defacto]

History will also tell us that Pick 4 is generally doesn't have the career Pick 1 has, and a 6-16 year is not that much better than a 4-18 year. It's not worth the two wins.

IMO this year there is Petracca, then Wright & McCartin, then the rest (very even after that). I want Petracca or Boyd, and I'd much rather have one of them than a couple of wins and Brayshaw or Durdin.

Agree Rors, we need to poach Jones, Jack or T Mitch. They also have Callum Mills coming through next year (I think he's better than Heeney, have fun with this Eddie) along with potential (read: extremely likely) father-son prospect Josh Dunkley, who would have been in the top bracket of mids. The time is now, invade the northern clubs.

you forgot about pickett

 

[Periphery]

I've always been on the McCartin bandwagon but that mail about us passing on him if he doesn't grow got me thinking. Is McCartin too much of a risk for pick 1?

I'm a tad bit worried that he has too many question marks for us to risk what might be the most important draft pick of this rebuild on:

Diabetes - I'm no expert so I can't say for sure the impact this would have it still has to factor in somehow.
Set shot kicking - Improving but not a strong point. Bad goal kicking in a somewhat one dimensional forward is an issue.
Second efforts/fitness - While this can be worked on it will require effort and a real desire to do what it takes to get there. Not a sure thing and if he doesn't improve these he will never really reach the levels we need.
Height - If it's true that we will pass on him if he doesn't grow between now and the combine this must be an issue and reflects on just how close the call will be.

Individually they might not be massive issues, but combined they could just make him slightly too risky to draft with pick 1. No pick is a sure thing but Petracca has to be a safer bet doesn't he? Ideally, I think Petracca this year and then a GWS tall next would be the best scenario but I wouldn't be against Boyd this year. The main issue is that if we don't take a forward this year and don't manage to get one of the GWS talls then we could seriously hamper our flag chances. It seems like either way we are taking a bigger risk than we might want to.

I don't envy our recruiters. They have some seriously hard decisions to make and they have to be feeling the pressure.

 

[holllywood]

I've always been on the McCartin bandwagon but that mail about us passing on him if he doesn't grow got me thinking. Is McCartin too much of a risk for pick 1?

I'm a tad bit worried that he has too many question marks for us to risk what might be the most important draft pick of this rebuild on:

Diabetes - I'm no expert so I can't say for sure the impact this would have it still has to factor in somehow.
Set shot kicking - Improving but not a strong point. Bad goal kicking in a somewhat one dimensional forward is an issue.
Second efforts/fitness - While this can be worked on it will require effort and a real desire to do what it takes to get there. Not a sure thing and if he doesn't improve these he will never really reach the levels we need.
Height - If it's true that we will pass on him if he doesn't grow between now and the combine this must be an issue and reflects on just how close the call will be.

Individually they might not be massive issues, but combined they could just make him slightly too risky to draft with pick 1. No pick is a sure thing but Petracca has to be a safer bet doesn't he? Ideally, I think Petracca this year and then a GWS tall next would be the best scenario but I wouldn't be against Boyd this year. The main issue is that if we don't take a forward this year and don't manage to get one of the GWS talls then we could seriously hamper our flag chances. It seems like either way we are taking a bigger risk than we might want to.

I don't envy our recruiters. They have some seriously hard decisions to make and they have to be feeling the pressure.

I my opnion all of the question marks can be managed/fixed.

Diabetes: Don't know too much about diabetes so won't comment on this.

Set shots: Can be fixed. Roo and T. Cloke are just two blokes who have improved set shot kicking over time. Not a huge worry (but obviously better if he was a dead eye)

Second effort/fitness: Becoming a full-time footballer will help with his fitness, as will a few preseasons to work on his tank and second efforts. Give him a few preseasons and his fitness shouldn't be a concern. He will be able to work up the ground as much as he needs to and a greater fitness base allows for greater second efforts. And it's a premature call to say it's not a sure thing that he doesnt have the effort or desire to reach new levels. He is only 18 and has managed diabetes all his life to get to where he is at now, a dominant U18 KPF and the potential number 1 pick in an AFL draft. Can't ask for much more.

Height: Still baffles me as to why height is deemed so important for KPF, especially the 'magical' 195cm mark being fapped over. Current KPF at or under the 194cm mark - Taylor Walker, Jarryd Roughead, Darling, Pavlich, Cameron and they are all gun forwards (N.Roo is also listed at 193cm but didn't list him as people are convinced he is 195cm). I seriously hope the 'mail' that we will over look him if he doesn't grow is false, and judging by 99% of 'mail' heard on BF, I'm sure it is.

He is still only 18, so he is far from the finished product. He does have some question marks over him but so do all prospects. Give him a few years in an AFL environment and he will strive. He will be a very good footballer in the coming years and the team that drafts him will be lucky to have him.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Height: Still baffles me as to why height is deemed so important for KPF, especially the 'magical' 195cm mark being fapped over. Current KPF at or under the 194cm mark - Taylor Walker, Jarryd Roughead, Darling, Pavlich, Cameron and they are all gun forwards (N.Roo is also listed at 193cm but didn't list him as people are convinced he is 195cm).

I don't "fap over it", but I can definitely see why it could be an issue going forward and apparently the "pro's" don't consider someone coming through the draft to be key position height any more if they aren't at least 195cm or so, so I think you'll find it's far from just a few on here who see it as something to consider.

What of my recent post on the topic do not agree with, for instance? (You can ignore the first paragraph if you like, as it's about Roo and you've obviously heard it plenty) : http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2014-draft-prospects.1067101/page-22#post-33852233

 

[holllywood]

I don't "fap over it", but I can definitely see why it could be an issue going forward and apparently the "pro's" don't consider someone coming through the draft to be key position height any more if they aren't at least 195cm or so, so I think you'll find it's far from just a few on here who see it as something to consider.

What of my recent post on the topic do not agree with, for instance? (You can ignore the first paragraph if you like, as it's about Roo and you've obviously heard it plenty) : http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2014-draft-prospects.1067101/page-22#post-33852233

In reality what's the difference between 194cm and 195cm? Last report I saw he was listed at 194cm, at the age of 18, and is still likely to grow (just like Buddy growing an extra 2cm after being drafted) so I don't think his height will be an issue in the future.

But for argument's sake he doesn't grow and is stranded at 194cm.

Still arbituary. He has all the attributes to make him a gun KPF and demand a key back. He may be shorter than a few KPD but he has enough skill and different strengths to make him a head ache for opposition backs. He is quick off the mark with good hands, strong for his age, very skilled below the knees, can split a pack and can take a contested mark. I would say that is far from one dimensional and would take a pretty special KPD to be able to blanket all of his strengths. And even if he can, it would still be hard for him to stop PM from crashing packs and providing oppurtunities for our small forwards.

And as you said, if you're good enough you're tall enough, and PM will make it regardless of his height.

 

[Baker_for_PM]

Who do we believe is the best player right now not based on want or need? Im hoping the combine will help give us a better picture of where paddy is at but right now i think Petracca is the best available. And with pick 1 so important right now i think thats the best way to approach it.

 

[Defacto]

Who do we believe is the best player right now not based on want or need? Im hoping the combine will help give us a better picture of where paddy is at but right now i think Petracca is the best available. And with pick 1 so important right now i think thats the best way to approach it.

want or need means nothing if the player wont make it at AFL level IMO

pertracca....daylight.....the rest

 

[gringo2011]

I'm geting a feeling we want Petracca or Brayshaw as there are rumblings about Brett Eddy and even Mitch Clarke coming to do what Maister was there for. I think they must have some hope that White and Lee can combine to make a satisfactory forward line until a really good free agent KPF comes on the market. The draft stuff on the saints website suggested they were looking at competitions like VFL and SANFL to get players.

 

[Barrels]

I'm geting a feeling we want Petracca or Brayshaw as there are rumblings about Brett Eddy and even Mitch Clarke coming to do what Maister was there for. I think they must have some hope that White and Lee can combine to make a satisfactory forward line until a really good free agent KPF comes on the market. The draft stuff on the saints website suggested they were looking at competitions like VFL and SANFL to get players.

Are those specific rumblings from anywhere other than here?

 

[L_W_P]

Depending on where our first pick is (1st - 5th) here is how I see it going:

Scenario 1
18th - St Kilda - McCartin

Scenario 2
18th - GWS/Melbourne - Petracca
17th - StK - McCartin

Scenario 3
18th - Melbourne - Petracca
Compo - Melbourne - Wright
17th - StK - McCartin

Scenario 4
18th - Brisbane - McCartin
17th - StK - Petracca

Scenario 5
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Brisbane - McCartin
16th - StK - Wright

Scenario 6
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Melbourne - Laverde
Compo - Melbourne - Wright
16th - StK - McCartin

Scenario 7
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Melbourne - Laverde
16th - Brisbane - McCartin
15th - StK - Wright

Scenario 8
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Melbourne - Laverde
Compo - Melbourne - Wright
16th - Brisbane - McCartin
15th - StK - Durdin

So basically the depth chart is - McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Laverde and Durdin. I'd have it as Petracca, Wright then McCartin but the club seems to be hoping for McCartin as a priority and the Taylor Walker comparisons are apt. Lindsay Gilbee has been credited with helping fix Roo's goal kicking so I'm getting comfortable with the idea of us getting this kid in, despite his set shot flaws.

The other curveball is Melbourne taking one of Brayshaw or Durdin with a compo pick. This would more than likely see one of Wright or McCartin make it to our pick regardless.

 

[gringo2011]

Are those specific rumblings from anywhere other than here?

Probably started here but I heard it from a Saints supporter at my kids school who thinks he's pretty connected. Has come up with anything you couldn't find on line yet though.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Depending on where our first pick is (1st - 5th) here is how I see it going:

Scenario 1
18th - St Kilda - McCartin

Scenario 2
18th - GWS/Melbourne - Petracca
17th - StK - McCartin

Scenario 3
18th - Melbourne - Petracca
Compo - Melbourne - Wright
17th - StK - McCartin

Scenario 4
18th - Brisbane - McCartin
17th - StK - Petracca

Scenario 5
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Brisbane - McCartin
16th - StK - Wright

Scenario 6
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Melbourne - Laverde
Compo - Melbourne - Wright
16th - StK - McCartin

Scenario 7
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Melbourne - Laverde
16th - Brisbane - McCartin
15th - StK - Wright

Scenario 8
18th - GWS - Petracca
17th - Melbourne - Laverde
Compo - Melbourne - Wright
16th - Brisbane - McCartin
15th - StK - Durdin

So basically the depth chart is - McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Laverde and Durdin. I'd have it as Petracca, Wright then McCartin but the club seems to be hoping for McCartin as a priority and the Taylor Walker comparisons are apt. Lindsay Gilbee has been credited with helping fix Roo's goal kicking so I'm getting comfortable with the idea of us getting this kid in, despite his set shot flaws.

The other curveball is Melbourne taking one of Brayshaw or Durdin with a compo pick. This would more than likely see one of Wright or McCartin make it to our pick regardless.

The scenarios are endless with a lot of variables.

Draft range will give us an indication of what players we may choose:

McCartin - Picks 1-2
Petracca - Picks 1-2
Wright - Picks 3-5
Brayshaw - Picks 3-5
Durdin - Picks 3-5

I think its safe to say we will have a top 5 pick and thats taking into account the chance of GWS, Brissy and Melb finishing lower on the ladder and Melb getting a compo pick for Frawley. The Dogs and Blues two wins and a massive percentage ahead will safely finish higher on the ladder.

If we finish on the ladder:

18th-17th - McCartin/Petracca
16th-15th - Wright/Brayshaw/Durdin

Most draft boards seem to have Laverde, Ahern, Pickett, and Lever on the next rung, in the 6-12 range. I understand they could go earlier but if we start listing those guys as potential players we pick we would have to include many others.

 

[felsty]

McCartins height an issue when you compare him to another young kid around his pick?
I would much prefer Wright by the sounds of things - has so many more +ives for him
Height
Elite Endurance
Elite Hands
Running Capacity
Flexibility
Disposal %
Booming Kick
Give me the highly skilled, red headed, pug fugly, running machine everyday of the week and twice on Sundays
I think the combine will show just how good this kid is and make us take more note of him and feel silly that we ever thought otherwise

 

[aussierulesrules]

In reality what's the difference between 194cm and 195cm? Last report I saw he was listed at 194cm, at the age of 18, and is still likely to grow (just like Buddy growing an extra 2cm after being drafted) so I don't think his height will be an issue in the future.

But for argument's sake he doesn't grow and is stranded at 194cm.

Still arbituary. He has all the attributes to make him a gun KPF and demand a key back. He may be shorter than a few KPD but he has enough skill and different strengths to make him a head ache for opposition backs. He is quick off the mark with good hands, strong for his age, very skilled below the knees, can split a pack and can take a contested mark. I would say that is far from one dimensional and would take a pretty special KPD to be able to blanket all of his strengths. And even if he can, it would still be hard for him to stop PM from crashing packs and providing oppurtunities for our small forwards.

And as you said, if you're good enough you're tall enough, and PM will make it regardless of his height.

Yeah I'm not disputing that he'll make it and never have, because he still has plenty going for him and I agree that there isn't much difference between 194cm or 195cm, but I still believe that it would be ideal if he were to grow another inch or so, so that by the 2nd half of his career he's not giving away quite as much height on what could be a very regular basis.

 

[Rors]

picket and durdin are well ahead of brayshaw IMO

i'd punt on pickett

Durdin's physique reminds me too much of this bloke

(Someone give him a beer & a hamburger)

Brayshaw is an elite kick off both feet - something we are crying out for

Here's Knightmare's write up on him:

Angus Brayshaw (VIC – Mid/Def)
Height: 187cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 09/01/1996
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Style: Sam Mitchell
Player comparison: Oliver Wines
Range: 3-10
Profile: Brayshaw is a high substance midfielder who will produce every week. Brayshaw is the dominant, immediate midfielder in this draft who you can just slot into your midfield and put to work. He’s a big time accumulator through the midfield with his inside ball winning ability. He’s also a stoppage specialist and is an excellent tackler. Brayshaw has absolutely dominated the TAC Cup and has the proven performances on the board to suggest he can take the next step and become one of the elite midfielders in the competition. He’s got clean hands and is a damaging user of the footy on both his right and left sides. He makes good decisions with ball in hand and has the vision to find targets up the field in dangerous positions. He’s also a very good finisher around goal. He’s a strong mark overhead and can push back behind the ball to take an intercept mark or push forward to take a grab and provide scoreboard impact. Athletically Brayshaw is capable and continually improving but he’s a footballer first and has the build and mature footballers game to step into the midfield right away and have an impact with his strength over the ball. Brayshaw also while you draft him with the intent to play him as a midfielder if you need another ball user down back you could pretty easily slot him onto a back flank with his ball use allowing him to be a playmaker down back or alternatively push him forward where he can take a mark and hit the scoreboard which he’s shown consistently that he can do this year in the TAC Cup.

 

[HayesTheChamp]

Honestly though, I feel like if we get a pick in the 4-5 region, I'd more than happily take Durdin. I can see him being a better version of Jake Carlisle eventually, when he puts on about 10-15kgs. Durdin's got better disposal than Carlisle as well. Wouldn't mind a CHB clunking marks and then throwing him forward to kick a couple.

I just want us to go best available - only going via needs if we rank two players or more at the same level at one of our picks. If we viewed Petracca has the best, take him.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I think Brayshaw gets undersold a lot, especially if what Shifter said recently about him running the 20m in around 2.82 seconds (which is blistering) is anywhere near correct.

He is a terrific size, has what Shifter described as absolutely elite dual-sided kicking and handballing ability, I think has high character and all that sort of stuff and if he is anywhere near as quick as Shifter suggested he is and has the other attributes that Knightmare says he has (like excellent tackling and marking), then that would surely make him pretty much the "complete package", unless I'm missing something. Basically like a significantly taller and quicker version of Sam Mitchell, as far as style comparison goes.

 

[hayes]

Whoa whoa whoa, did you say "elite" kick?

All aboard the Brayshaw train!

 

[aussierulesrules]

From what I've heard of him, we could do a hell of a lot worse than Brayshaw and with his really balanced, high production and consistent game and seemingly no significant weaknesses, he sounds like the type that would go top 5 or so in just about any draft.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Brayshaw I would only take behind McCartin and Petracca.