Draft Review 2014 - Redo the 2014 AFL Draft

[Geary Is GOAT]

At this point in Jack Watts' career (3rd year) the tide turned and everyone started shitting on him so it's a valid question historically.

Using both Jack Watts' treatment from fans and development as a player as an example of anything other than what not to do is uncalled for.

 

[dman800]

Thats what tracs gathered in a team dominating, doubt it would have just transferred to us yesterday.

Why is that?

Regardless you clearly already have your mind made up, not sure why you made this thread.

I certainly have an opinion, but I'm always interested in reading thoughtful counter-arguments.

 

[Geary Is GOAT]

Why is that?

Because he played yesterday in a team that had a ruckman giving first use all day in a midfield that was cohesive and gelling. When he played forward he was getting decent service and opportunities.

Had he been playing for us he would be getting the opposite of all that. I'm not saying he wouldn't have been handy but he wouldn't have been some massive game changer for us.

 

[TiAn_]

Why are you naming father son picks?

Dayne Zorko? Seriously? Since when is he anywhere near as powerful or athletic as a Petracca? Awful example. Toby Greene is a small forward. Ward has never averaged more than a goal a game. Picken spent 80% of his career as a scrubber tagger.

Petracca is a fast, powerful beast of a midfielder with elite hands, both in traffic and overhead. Either you name similar players to that or you don't.

Putting them aside, how are key-forwards any more difficult to find? I named my share; are you going to make arbitrary rules about who counts as a key-forward?

In conclusion, cherry picking is stupid and doesn't prove anything.

Haha scrambling hard there. As for my response:

Lol ok. Sorry, I didn't take your arbitrary definition of "powerful" into account

 

[dazzledavey36]

McCartin is a worry for me.. I thought he looked badly overweight in the JTL series and wasn't surprised when i heard Alan Richardson say he was battling hamstring issues the past 3 weeks.

 

[Xhoquelin]

Is this the same McCartin that actually looked impressive last season?
The guy with diabetes and injury issues over the last year?
Ffs, give it a rest. He's in his third year and hasn't had a good run of games yet. It's like saying Brayshaw is a mistake when we could've got Touk Miller.
There's a reason these guys were selected high, they have a high ceiling and potential.
Give McCartin until he's played 15+ games in a season(hopefully this one) before you say he's a mistake.
Tom Hawkins actually stagnated significantly from 2007-2010 before his game changing performance in the 2011 GF. He copped it but now he's one of the most valuable players in the competition

 

[JeffDunne]

I have no problem saying "yes" it was a mistake.

To me the biggest issue with McCartin is his physical attributes for the modern game. It is made even worse by him being a type I diabetic (and I say this as someone who is a type I diabetic). It adds to the degree of difficulty in becoming an elite player.

It wasn't a horrendous blunder, but like with Billings ahead of Bont & even Ball ahead of Judd, we missed out on pure elite talent that could have taken us to another level. Sometimes I think we've overthought these decisions.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Using "top 3 picks" to make a point about midfielders, then asking me to name good key forwards taken outside the "top 5 picks"? Ok.

Not that cherry picking proves anything, but here you go: Tom Lynch, Taylor Walker, Jack Gunston, Josh Jenkins, Jack Riewoldt, Jack Darling, Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce, Ben Brown, Charlie Dixon. Going back even further: Barry Hall, Brendan Fevola, James Podsiadly, Cameron Mooney, Daniel Bradshaw, Fraser Gehrig, Warren Tredrea, Drew Petrie.


and Sydney, and Geelong, and West Coast.


They added him for a bag of chips, and it remains to be seen if he will have a big influence. A bit different to pick #1.

You can also build a flag winning midfield like the Dogs did in 2016. The Dogs wouldn't trade Bontempelli for any key-forward in the competition.

And GC wouldn't trade Lynch for any mid in the comp.

Clubs don't pass up potential gun forwards at pick 1. Good mids, dime a dozen. Good key forwards, rare as hens teeth !!

 

[Ron The Bear]

Tom Hawkins copped a lot of flak and didn't really start delivering until he was 23. McCartin's not even 21 yet. People need to be a bit more patient before calling pass or fail on this type of player. Especially when he didn't even play yesterday.

Edit: see Xhoquelin's comment above.

 

[citizen-erased]

It was at the moment they drafted him.
It was needs over best available. And i can understand that. McCartin was a top 2 pick, and Riewoldt was getting old.

petracca was clear best that year though

Billings over Bont wasn't that bad at the time. Bont had question marks all over him in his draft year. Boyd and Kelly posed a similar conundrum to McCartin and petracca - except GWS didn't have to decide on one or the other. Billings was the next best available.

 

[Richo83]

There aren't that many gun forwards in today's game that aren't taken very early. Daniher, Lynch, Roughead, Hogan, Riewoldt, Franklin and Kennedy were all taken early. Exceptions to the rule are players like Hawkins who was a father son pick and Walker. St Kilda didn't want a guy who could pinch hit, they wanted a gun. The fact that teams are forced to spend high picks on KPF father sons like Daniher and Moore whereas teams are willing and able to use later picks on midfielder father sons like Stretch is also telling.

On the other hand, it's not uncommon to draft good midfielders in the later rounds. Swan, Hannebery, Parker, Sam Mitchell, Sloane, Priddis, Merrett, Neale, Rockliff, Beams were all drafted in the 20s or with later picks.

Someone on the drafts and trading board (can't remember) did an analysis of this, their conclusion is that KPFs need to be able to read the play and know when to make a lead, which takes football IQ, something you can't teach. Players either have that at 18 or they don't, which means picking the gun KPFs early is necessary. Whereas with midfielders, you can work on their tank, or bulk them up so they become tougher. There are stories of midfielders working hard to change their game completely, think of players like Ling and Watson. Whereas how many KPFs in say the last five years were drafted with significant flaws in their game, only to iron them out?

It does feel like if you're not selecting a KPF in the first round, you're wasting draft picks, which is why you have to consider that if St Kilda drafted Petracca, they may have not drafted small in the later rounds and may have picked a KPF late, which is a risky prospect and probably a waste of draft capital. So the saints probably thought all things being equal early KPF pick + late KPD/midfielder/ruck pick > early midfielder/KPD/ruck pick + late KPF pick, and they're right.

So drafting analytics tells you if you want an elite KPP, you need to draft high whereas that's not necessarily the case for midfielders. I'm not sure whether or not they picked the right time to employ that mindset, but I can see their logic.

 

[Trav 20]

Apparently McCartin is playing in the VFL today, so one can only assume he was dropped and Richardson wanted more run in the forward-line.

Petracca will become a mid, but in 2017 he's playing nearly all of his minutes forward.

McCartin needs to drop kgs. He looks like an overweight bush full-forward.

 

[chickentendies]

I think people are knee jerking a tad too much and I think McCartin will come good - but its been proven time and time again that KPF's take time. The perfect example is T. Walker, who got a bit of media pressure as a result of the time he took, but is now an absolutely gun player and brilliant leader. He's had some pretty savage injuries already and shown enough to show that he'll progress at a decent pace.
I think people assume pick 1 = absolute guaranteed gun when it just increases the likelihood of getting a serviceable player. It probably doesn't help that he's been likened to Riewoldt, who is legend of St Kilda.

 

[Richo83]

Using "top 3 picks" to make a point about midfielders, then asking me to name good key forwards taken outside the "top 5 picks"? Ok.

Not that cherry picking proves anything, but here you go: Tom Lynch, Taylor Walker, Jack Gunston, Josh Jenkins, Jack Riewoldt, Jack Darling, Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce, Ben Brown, Charlie Dixon. Going back even further: Barry Hall, Brendan Fevola, James Podsiadly, Cameron Mooney, Daniel Bradshaw, Fraser Gehrig, Warren Tredrea, Drew Petrie.

You don't need a top three pick, but you do need to draft high. Let's go through some of these players

Lynch - drafted high
Walker - zone selection
Gunston - not really a spearhead forward
Jenkins - B-grade forward who has limitations
Riewoldt - drafted high
Darling - not really a spearhead forward, and has been worked out
Membrey - third tall
Bruce - second tall
Brown - solid B-grade tall
Dixon - limited, plus zone selection

Then we get into the players who were drafted years ago, when team drafting was less sophisticated. But nevertheless, Hall was drafted with pick 19, Petrie with pick 23, Tredrea was a zone selection, Gherig pick 16, which leaves Podsiadly (a few seasons then he was done) Mooney (a quintessential B-grade KPF) Bradshaw (second tall) and Fevola who is the exception, although I'd say Fevola was a limited forward who might struggle in the modern era, given he was very much reliant on forward service, and teams are more adept at shutting down space and flooding than ever before.

So your list doesn't fill me with confidence that you can find an A-grade KPF using a pick outside say the top 20. Did the saints even need an elite KPF? Perhaps not, but I doubt you're going to find one outside the top 20. I think the first round is probably a good test; if every single team in the league is passing on a key forward, he's probably not that good.

 

[Richo83]

I think there's two conversations here:

1. If you want an elite KPF, and I mean a guy that the opposition will put their best defender on and the side's forwardline will be built around, do you have to draft say in the first round, and ideally within say the first 10-15 picks? Yes.

2. Does a team need an elite KPF to win a flag? I don't think so, Footscray pulled it off, so did Geelong in 2008.

The problem for the saints is they answered the first question right, but they didn't think of the next question.

 

[Tulip]

I don't understand why he's playing today? Weird selection decision by Richardson and co.

 

[Xhoquelin]

If the Dogs had Jack Redpath instead of Tom Boyd, they wouldn't have won the premiership. They wouldn't even have beaten Hawthorn.

Body's effort around the ground, using his height an strength to bring every contest to ground, was a huge reason behind the Bulldogs' success. It's fair to say that only a few, select players in the competition could've done what Boyd did.
Don't forget that Boyd is playing out of position. He is a monster full forward like the Tomahawk and in fact, many parallels can be drawn between the two players. Hawkins played a season or two as a ruck/forward before that breakout GF performances. While Boyd has had a breakout GF Performance, he hasn't developed as much as Hawkins. I see Boyd moving forward in a couple of seasons and fulfilling his potential.

And don't forget that despite Boyd not being a "key forward" technically, he did cost Ryan Griffen and pick 6. Arguably, Roughhead played as a half forward in 2015 in Hawthorn's most dominant season yet. It's clear that while gamestyles are evolving, the big, strong man who contests every single contest is still a vital component of any premiership team. While not every team uses their big men the same way, you still need a great big man in the Arsenal in the first place. The only premiership without a player like this in the last few seasons is Sydney IMO but they still had Adam Goodes, a player whose blend of pace, kicking, skills, athleticism, ability to play virtually every role and ability to show up in huge games will never be replicated IMO. Not to mention one of the best functionality-wise ruck tandems in Mumford-Pyke that we have ever seen; who could've predicted Pyke taking those crucial grabs in that finals series.

 

[Trav 20]

You don't need a top three pick, but you do need to draft high. Let's go through some of these players

Lynch - drafted high
Walker - exception to the rule
Gunston - not really a spearhead forward
Jenkins - B-grade forward who has limitations
Riewoldt - drafted high
Darling - not really a spearhead forward, and has been worked out
Membrey - third tall
Bruce - second tall
Brown - solid B-grade tall
Dixon - limited, plus zone selection

Walker was a zone selection, so doesn't count.

 

[dewah07]

when we selected carts this was our forward line

Snchider Stanley Maister
Templeton Riewoldt saunders

we had 1 player clear 18 goals in N.Roo and our great white hope spencer white was about to get let go.

but terrible call

today this is our foward line

Membrey McCartin Greshem
Weller Bruce Billings

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Well....no

Saints obviously looking for a replacement key forward for when Riewoldt retires and they got him. If teams were worried that players would get a concussion while playing for them then guys would never get drafted

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

Did Saints think McCartin was best available or did they pick him up due to needs? Cos I felt like at the time general consensus was that Petracca was better. Petracca would likely be the better player too.. the big brute of a forward isn't as dominating as it used to be. Mobile forwards who can work the ground well are.

Saints probably made the right choice at the time with no other obvious KPF options, they didn't know they'd get bruce/membry who'd come on well. Hindsight sais otherwise now though, considering they need elite mids.

 

[Tiger_4_Life]

McCartin will be fine, has great hands but will he be better than petracca? Probably not but in his third year, it's pretty early to start writing an obituary. He showed what he's capable of in JLT when it comes together.

If the saints had a fyfe or Martin or danger, theyd be a 3-4 goal better team instantly.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

What is bigfootys obsession with players becomming stars automatically? Boyd, Billings etc. Etc. It takes time!!

 

[demondavey]

When they went for McCartin neither Membrey nor Bruce had shown anything So they had a 31 year old Roo and no one else. At the time they HAD to select McCartin as they needed a key forward more than they needed a midfielder. We already had selected Hogan so we really didnt need McCartin. So as a Dees supporter I was pumped the 2 midfielders slipped through to us even though McCartin and Hogan would have been an awesome forward line.
Roo still kicked 4 for them last night and was the thing holding their spine together as Membrey and Bruce are 2nd and 3rd forwards who feed off space and mismatches. They still need McCartin to come on, even more so now that Roo may well be hurt

Spot on. St Kilda conducted a needs basis analysis and it was obvious to go for P Mac.

Why wouldn't you pick him? Look at Riewoldt, Kennedy, Patton, Roughead as top 5 picks as key forwards. He will absolutely take time, and there will be dozens of threads made in that time questioning his positioning as the no.1 pick, but I think he will be a great selection at the end of his career.

 

[Tulip]

Here's a hypothetical... if we'd picked Petracca, and Paddy had played for the Dees yesterday, what would have happened?

With the way our midfield played, Petracca would have been average and Paddy would have kicked a bag.

Our issue yesterday was our entire midfield set up, I honestly don't think Petracca would have made a big difference to that. Melbourne's best players were Lewis, Oliver and Gawn who absolutely owned us around the contest.

I don't think so. Petracca can play anywhere. McCartin would have probably been the same as Weideman, who had plenty of chances but didn't have the size to go with your bigger-bodied defenders.