2015 Draft Discussion

[cmt26]

I'm not sure how I feel about William.

Some of his attributes are brilliant and transfer well to AFL level. Eg: athleticism, ball handling, speed, evasiveness, reading of the play.

However there are really big question marks over his decision making and foot skills. Whether those deficiencies can be ironed out in a full time environment is a big question.

I think he plays AFL but I'm not sure how many games and for how long. His upside is tremendous, particularly on the half back flank where he can lock down or provide a lot of drive. Very much worth the punt - just a boom or bust prospect.

 

[winged1]

A lot of these guys are only rookie prospects, along with Chol, Buzza probably Wagner.

 

[dmac_55]

Who are we legitimately looking at that would bid for hipwood and keays? GC at 10 for hipwood? Hopefully Ashcroft looks after us and leaves the academy kids alone.

 

[SizeMatters]

Both hipwood and keays probably get bid on 11-16 IMO. I can't see why any team in the top 10 will bid on them TBH.

 

[dmac_55]

After assessing, I think our real threat for hipwood would be dogs at 11. I think crows will grab one of Francis/Milera if available.. Also I don't think they want to risk us not matching and having a QLD 200cm player with their current KP stocks and the need for midfielders..

Keays I have hopes could fall to around 17.

Suns hold the biggest cards in our academy prospects this year, with pick 10 and 16. Dogs at 11 for hipwood and Roos at pick 15 for keays are good chances..

I think we get these academy kids for around 11 and 15 worst case..

 

[winged1]

After assessing, I think our real threat for hipwood would be dogs at 11. I think crows will grab one of Francis/Milera if available.. Also I don't think they want to risk us not matching and having a QLD 200cm player with their current KP stocks and the need for midfielders..

Keays I have hopes could fall to around 17.

Suns hold the biggest cards in our academy prospects this year, with pick 10 and 16. Dogs at 11 for hipwood and Roos at pick 15 for keays are good chances..

I think we get these academy kids for around 11 and 15 worst case..

But Williams worked out so well for them.

So what happens if nobody bids on them and pick 17 rolls around? Do we go Hipwood or do we go for other talent.

 

[pulpdriver]

After assessing, I think our real threat for hipwood would be dogs at 11. I think crows will grab one of Francis/Milera if available.. Also I don't think they want to risk us not matching and having a QLD 200cm player with their current KP stocks and the need for midfielders..

Keays I have hopes could fall to around 17.

Suns hold the biggest cards in our academy prospects this year, with pick 10 and 16. Dogs at 11 for hipwood and Roos at pick 15 for keays are good chances..

I think we get these academy kids for around 11 and 15 worst case..

I'm probably being naive but would like to think all the Northern clubs will refrain from bidding on each other's top tier academy prospects until the Northern talent pool has increased and all teams have had the opportunity to receive some benefit from their investment.

 

[ULittleBeauty]

I reckon there is a good chance that the bids for Keays and Hipwood will drift slightly given other clubs know its a near certainty that Bris will simply counter match - what's the incentive for other clubs to bid for them?

 

[cmt26]

I reckon there is a good chance that the bids for Keays and Hipwood will drift slightly given other clubs know its a near certainty that Bris will simply counter match - what's the incentive for other clubs to bid for them?

Force Brisbane to pay overs.
They know that we will match regardless. I like to think there is a bit of an honour system regarding the bidding. Clubs like to keep each other honest with market value of the academy/father-son talent.

 

[T Rick]

I reckon there is a good chance that the bids for Keays and Hipwood will drift slightly given other clubs know its a near certainty that Bris will simply counter match - what's the incentive for other clubs to bid for them?

To force us to pay more...

 

[Len S]

I'm not sure how I feel about William.

Some of his attributes are brilliant and transfer well to AFL level. Eg: athleticism, ball handling, speed, evasiveness, reading of the play.

However there are really big question marks over his decision making and foot skills. Whether those deficiencies can be ironed out in a full time environment is a big question.

I think he plays AFL but I'm not sure how many games and for how long. His upside is tremendous, particularly on the half back flank where he can lock down or provide a lot of drive. Very much worth the punt - just a boom or bust prospect.

Reuben 's efficiency in the final state games was outstanding...he has matched each requirement as the bar has been raised ...no brainer ,someone is going to pick him up.

 

[cmt26]

Reuben 's efficiency in the final state games was outstanding...he has matched each requirement as the bar has been raised ...no brainer ,someone is going to pick him up.

Agree that he will get picked up. My question is more about whether he will make the most of his potential (which he has lots of). Will be great to watch if he can iron out his flaws, hopefully in BL colours.

1 game is too small of a sample size to make the judgement that he has improved. Stats are good but I highly recommend having a look at his entire body of work in the QLD games this year.
I'm looking at his Technique, particularly when on the run. Kicking deficiencies are the second hardest aspect of a players game to iron out. Reading the play/game sense is the hardest (note William has no issues with this)

 

[Fatcat08]

I will find it interesting to see who bids on players this year and where. I have a few theories that will be tested and am curious to see how close I am to the mark, or whether i'm way off.

1. Last year clubs were happy to bid quite high on guys knowing it was simply next pick and teams were always going to match. Personally I see teams being a little more cautious this year with their bids.

2. Having said that this will be partially offset by the bidding clubs knowing that Academy clubs really need to put as many of these guys on the list as possible, especially early days. All academy clubs are looking at top athletes from other sports and the big sell will be "hey look you are pretty much guaranteed to play for the local club". Its important to have a decent breadth of examples in these early stages of the Academy. Its not just about this year or next, its about the next decade.

3. Interstate teams will be more likely to bid on academy players due the the lower relative risk. SA and WA teams certainly have less local options than Vic teams so its a pretty good chance that they will be drafting an interstate player (especially early picks this year). I tend to think this makes them more likely to bid higher in the draft order.

4. The larger Melb teams will be more likely to bid early in the draft than some of the smaller ones and back themselves to keep these guys. Ones with well established lists and leadership groups particularly. Pies and possibly hawks trading out their early picks is certainly positive for us. Teams like North and the dogs I see as less likely to bid with early picks.

Worth noting that when I talk early picks there will be a point where the talent of the player is simply too good not to bid even for some of the smaller melb teams and they will bid. I just tend to think that we're more likely to see those bids come from the interstate teams and larger melb clubs.

There's a few others i'm interested to see if the validate but these are the main ones. Interested to hear others thoughts on them

 

[JasRulz63]

The one thing that goes against the Bulldogs bidding is that they haven't used a first round pick on a non-Victorian player for a while. If they thought there was a chance we could not match the bid, then they might not bid unless they change their stance.

 

[carnthemlions]

I will find it interesting to see who bids on players this year and where. I have a few theories that will be tested and am curious to see how close I am to the mark, or whether i'm way off.

1. Last year clubs were happy to bid quite high on guys knowing it was simply next pick and teams were always going to match. Personally I see teams being a little more cautious this year with their bids.

2. Having said that this will be partially offset by the bidding clubs knowing that Academy clubs really need to put as many of these guys on the list as possible, especially early days. All academy clubs are looking at top athletes from other sports and the big sell will be "hey look you are pretty much guaranteed to play for the local club". Its important to have a decent breadth of examples in these early stages of the Academy. Its not just about this year or next, its about the next decade.

3. Interstate teams will be more likely to bid on academy players due the the lower relative risk. SA and WA teams certainly have less local options than Vic teams so its a pretty good chance that they will be drafting an interstate player (especially early picks this year). I tend to think this makes them more likely to bid higher in the draft order.

4. The larger Melb teams will be more likely to bid early in the draft than some of the smaller ones and back themselves to keep these guys. Ones with well established lists and leadership groups particularly. Pies and possibly hawks trading out their early picks is certainly positive for us. Teams like North and the dogs I see as less likely to bid with early picks.

Worth noting that when I talk early picks there will be a point where the talent of the player is simply too good not to bid even for some of the smaller melb teams and they will bid. I just tend to think that we're more likely to see those bids come from the interstate teams and larger melb clubs.

There's a few others i'm interested to see if the validate but these are the main ones. Interested to hear others thoughts on them

I've been wondering whether the pick of last year's crop(Heeney, Andrews, Dawson) turning out to be exactly as advertised so far might have an impact.

 

[BigCat2]

I will find it interesting to see who bids on players this year and where. I have a few theories that will be tested and am curious to see how close I am to the mark, or whether i'm way off.

1. Last year clubs were happy to bid quite high on guys knowing it was simply next pick and teams were always going to match. Personally I see teams being a little more cautious this year with their bids.

2. Having said that this will be partially offset by the bidding clubs knowing that Academy clubs really need to put as many of these guys on the list as possible, especially early days. All academy clubs are looking at top athletes from other sports and the big sell will be "hey look you are pretty much guaranteed to play for the local club". Its important to have a decent breadth of examples in these early stages of the Academy. Its not just about this year or next, its about the next decade.

3. Interstate teams will be more likely to bid on academy players due the the lower relative risk. SA and WA teams certainly have less local options than Vic teams so its a pretty good chance that they will be drafting an interstate player (especially early picks this year). I tend to think this makes them more likely to bid higher in the draft order.

4. The larger Melb teams will be more likely to bid early in the draft than some of the smaller ones and back themselves to keep these guys. Ones with well established lists and leadership groups particularly. Pies and possibly hawks trading out their early picks is certainly positive for us. Teams like North and the dogs I see as less likely to bid with early picks.

Worth noting that when I talk early picks there will be a point where the talent of the player is simply too good not to bid even for some of the smaller melb teams and they will bid. I just tend to think that we're more likely to see those bids come from the interstate teams and larger melb clubs.

There's a few others i'm interested to see if the validate but these are the main ones. Interested to hear others thoughts on them

Very high likelihood that Mills, Hopper and Kennedy are all bid within top 10 and bids matched. This means bids for our 2 academy boys are likely to come from pick 10-15, thus reducing their cost.

 

[Ironmonger]

Very high likelihood that Mills, Hopper and Kennedy are all bid within top 10 and bids matched. This means bids for our 2 academy boys are likely to come from pick 10-15, thus reducing their cost.

Apologies if the answer to this is sitting somewhere else:

When a club matches a bid, does that effectively mean that club has acquired and used that draft pick, and all later picks get bumped down?

So if Gold Coast bid pick 3 on Callum Mills and Sydney match it with later picks, does that mean Sydney are effectively seen to have taken Mills at 3?

Meaning that if Gold Coast then bid on Hopper, then GWS would have to find the points to match pick 4, and not pick 3.

dlanod?

 

[Hollow Knight]

Apologies if the answer to this is sitting somewhere else:

When a club matches a bid, does that effectively mean that club has acquired and used that draft pick, and all later picks get bumped down?

So if Gold Coast bid pick 3 on Callum Mills and Sydney match it with later picks, does that mean Sydney are effectively seen to have taken Mills at 3?

Meaning that if Gold Coast then bid on Hopper, then GWS would have to find the points to match pick 4, and not pick 3.

dlanod?

Correct.

 

[dlanod]

Apologies if the answer to this is sitting somewhere else:

When a club matches a bid, does that effectively mean that club has acquired and used that draft pick, and all later picks get bumped down?

So if Gold Coast bid pick 3 on Callum Mills and Sydney match it with later picks, does that mean Sydney are effectively seen to have taken Mills at 3?

Meaning that if Gold Coast then bid on Hopper, then GWS would have to find the points to match pick 4, and not pick 3.

dlanod?

Correct all throughout.

 

[iBeng]

I wonder if theres a silent agreement between us, GCS, Giants and the Swans to NOT bid on each others academy kids?

 

[Bucking Beads]

I wonder if theres a silent agreement between us, GCS, Giants and the Swans to NOT bid on each others academy kids?

There really should be if the clubs are smart.

 

[Bucking Beads]

I'd say our draft day will looke a bit like this. Schache, Hipwood, Keays and then any of our academy kids who aren't bid on before the 3rd round. I can't see us taking any other kids.

 

[iBeng]

There really should be if the clubs are smart.

Id like to think there was, no need to go shooting our feet with the academy, especially with Eddie having already fired a few buck shots at us.

 

[BigCat2]

The only exception au be Gold Coast as they have no highly rated prospects coming through. Hopefully they will see sense and work towards the mutual benefit of all frontier clubs.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I wonder if theres a silent agreement between us, GCS, Giants and the Swans to NOT bid on each others academy kids?

Almost certainly.