2016 AFL - Round 12

[Zealbee]

Rockliff 30+/Walters 3+ goals double at $2.25 SB

Is it just me or are those terrible odds for that?

 

[CarterS]

Fill up on Hawks last night, they were always going to cover -51.5 easily. I like GWS tomorrow but not sure exactly what bet yet. Maybe something small on Adelaide.

 

[Boxhead182]

Is it just me or are those terrible odds for that?

Pretty confident it will happen

 

[mookieb]

Port Adelaide at $1.73 SB
Chad Wingard 3+ goals at $2.25 SB
Rockliff 30+/Walters 3+ goals double at $2.25 SB

I'm on Port as well. Apart from 5 minutes of football they could have gone 5 from their last 6. No Easton Wood and of course always a tough trip to Adelaide Oval. WB have had a great schedule early so be interesting to see how they go on the road.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Port
Geel
Adel
Rich
Syd
Coll

30 @ 37.75

Sneaky 10 on the draw for Port v Dogs

 

[Infra Ted]

WB have it in the bag

 

[daniel_4tw]

WB
Geelong
Sydney
100 @ 7.79

 

[freo_leo29]

Head up for anyone who tailed te Walters bet

Luxbet has Under 2 goals at $2.00 if you want to hedge it

It would be a push if he lands on two so you would get full payout from 365 and cashback from lux and if he gets 3 it will be a loss but your Walters 3+ bet wins so it's a pretty decent way to guarantee winnings


I'm still going to let it ride and won't bother hedging though, wish lux had te line at 2.5 would have been a great middle opportunity

 

[Spads]

1U WB +6.5

 

[Robo87]

$1 Dahlhaus most goals@51 cr for fun.
wake-up call for port adelaide today,
1u WB +6.5@1.91 (lads)
1u WB -13.5@3.25 (365)

 

[targett]

M.Walters is up to 50% roi cash out

 

[Jay-Z]

Also went for Redpath 2+ @ $1.95. He has done it 4/4 this year. On him for 3+ @ $4. He has done this 2/4.

 

[Spads]

M.Walters is up to 50% roi cash out

Yeah, but is it enough to buy a handbag? That's the crucial cash out point.

 

[Robo87]

M.Walters is up to 50% roi cash out

that just tells me they are freaking out about how much money they are going to lose..

 

[mookieb]

Thoughts on the Swans v Giants game. I'm confident of a Giants win by ~15 points or so. I'm not basing this on any tactics or any team statistics. I'm basing this purely on motivation.

This is the Giants 100th AFL game. The club have had this one circled for a long time on the schedule as one they really want to shine in. For the first 60 or so games in the AFL, the Giants were absolute whipping boys of the competition. The motivation to win this one is absolutely huge, they will want to make a statement. The sense of occasion is made even bigger by the fact they have lost the past two interstate games away, both by close margins, to very good teams. They simply can't lose a 3rd in a row. Additionally, this is the first ever sold out giants home game in Sydney and they will want too mark the occasion. I would say that this is probably the biggest game the Giants have ever played. The motivation is absolutely there, but will they be able to pull it off? With a now almost fully fit and elite team, and playing at home at spotless, where they have a great record in the past 2 season I am very confident the answer is yes.

However, the swans are absolutely flying. They deserve to be premiership favorites, and they are also at almost full strength. But they did play very high tackling and body contact heavy football in torrential conditions on the gold coast last week, which hopefully should slow them up a bit, in late stages of the game. Whilst the Swans are a great team, I just dont think the stakes are as high for them this week. They will almost certainly finish top 4 regardless of the outcome of this weeks game.

The only scenario i worry about, is that the Giants dont have much experience ever playing in a game where the stakes are this high - Sold out crowd, Fighting for top 4 spot, 100th club game, trying to prevent 3rd loss in row, and all of this whilst playing in a Derby. If they can rise above that pressure, for me this game will certainly be won by the giants. If they let the sense of occasion get to them......well.


To my mind, the Giants will win by ~15 points or so. I put 300 on them H2H earlier in the week at 2.08 and I'm looking forward to seeing how this "gut feeling" pays off.

Initially I had exactly the same feelings as it should be a "mini Grand Final" for GWS coming off two tough losses on the road and coming up against big brother who have beaten up on GWS in the past. However, went through my worksheet I do for each game and still think Sydney wins on form, injuries, past results etc. Most of the top teams have been very good at home though so just watching the game out of interest as it should be very close with no bets down.

Think Freo should win by a couple of goals as they seem to have improved their structure, have a more experienced team and have run into a bit of form. Given the erratic nature of Brisbane's form at home it's a hard game to pick.

I think WC wins by 3 or 4 goals. Very hard to beat at home. Both teams with potent forward lines, but I think Adelaide are going to leak a few goals.

I'm not sure why Geelong are favourites. No Hawkins, NM very good at Etihad, past games in favour of NM who are also in better recent form. I think they should win by a couple of goals.

SB - Hawks, Port, Rich, WC, Carl
WH - Rich, WC, Carl -8.5, NM +30.5

1u NM +39.5, 1u NM to win in-play, 0.5u NM (SB promo), 0.5u NM (Crown promo)
1u Port

 

[targett]

that just tells me they are freaking out about how much money they are going to lose..

yea we should shake the market like this more often

 

[Robo87]

Aaron young 2+ @2.40 and 3+ @6 is overs too considering the year he is having
Not as much on him as Walters

I will tail that Redpath pick too, Port get destroyed by tall forwards usually

Redpath, Dickson and now Young, Yeah boy!

 

[freo_leo29]

Walters keeps passing everything :\

 

[csnody]

Freo dominating but this is the worst umpiring I have seen in a very long time.

 

[freo_leo29]

Walters has had hardly any forward time, spending it all in the midfield good for freo bad for my betting!

 

[ALL IN]

WCE -3.5 4th Qrt line $1.92 @ Unibet
Crows have lost nearly every last Qrt away from home. WCE the opposite at home.

 

[Derzzy]

Brisbane lions are just embarrassing. They are losing by huge margins to teams they should at least be challenging. Especially at home.

 

[freo_leo29]

If walters could sneak in 2 in the las 4 minutes that would be great lol

every freo forward has had a day out except him it seems

 

[benji21]

Tempting to back freo against port. Although they have played poor opposition. I think they have clicked a little and the intensity is definetely up.

 

[Coach Bombay]

Geelong U39.5 points.

Waite first goal.