2016 AFL - Round 14

[chrisdon16]

CB have Crows Roos at 149.5 that's good enough for me, forecast is pretty atrocious

 

[Zealbee]

CB have Crows Roos at 149.5 that's good enough for me, forecast is pretty atrocious

I actually don't mind the overs at a lower number. 70% chance of rain and only 4-15mm predicted. I have this game capped at around 197 in dry conditions.

 

[targett]

Wed
22 Jun
Possible shower
9°C
16°C
Chance of rain: 70% (1-5mm) Possible shower
Humidity: 9am: 75% 3pm: 60%
Wind 9am: WNW 21km/h
Wind 3pm: NW 26km/h
Thu
23 Jun
Showers
10°C
16°C
Chance of rain: 90% (10-20mm) Showers
Humidity: 9am: 80% 3pm: 72%
Wind 9am: NNW 29km/h
Wind 3pm: NW 36km

 

[free at last]

Crownbet are still offering a total of 160.5 pts for the pies v dockers.

SB down to 153.5 pts

I worked the game total to be 181.5 pts in dry conditions!

160.5pts appears a good bet with the Melbourne forecast for Friday.

Crownbet now into 156.5 pts

 

[Zealbee]

Wed
22 Jun
Possible shower
9°C
16°C
Chance of rain: 70% (1-5mm) Possible shower
Humidity: 9am: 75% 3pm: 60%
Wind 9am: WNW 21km/h
Wind 3pm: NW 26km/h
Thu
23 Jun
Showers
10°C
16°C
Chance of rain: 90% (10-20mm) Showers
Humidity: 9am: 80% 3pm: 72%
Wind 9am: NNW 29km/h
Wind 3pm: NW 36km

BOM says the following:

Thursday 23 June
Summary

Min 10
Max 16
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Adelaide area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening with possible small hail. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h shifting southwesterly 35 to 45 km/h during the evening.

 

[targett]

BOM says the following:

Thursday 23 June
Summary

Min 10
Max 16
Showers.
Possible rainfall: 4 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%

Adelaide area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening with possible small hail. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h shifting southwesterly 35 to 45 km/h during the evening.

So if we aim for something In the middle we may be close ☺

 

[Zealbee]

So if we aim for something In the middle we may be close ☺

It's probably a no bet game for me anyway, feel more confident and have bet on the Fremantle v Collingwood unders.

 

[jaymasha]

It's probably a no bet game for me anyway, feel more confident and have bet on the Fremantle v Collingwood unders.

Wishful thinking, but if it gets to around 120, I'll be on the overs

 

[Robo87]

So Ziebell's cleared to play this week:
"Ziebell was in danger of missing Thursday night's clash between North Melbourne and the Crows after launching into Mitchell in last Friday night's clash at Etihad Stadium. However, the Panel decided he had no case to answer, saying there was not enough forceful high contact to constitute a reportable offence.
"It was the view of the panel that contact was primarily made to the upper chest area," the MRP said in its findings." - AFL site

Also Adelaide's gone over 12 behinds for an entire game 9/12 times this year, thinking rain to only encourage more behinds again.
Adel's 1st half behinds R1-R12: 6,5,6,8,3,5,1,8,11,11,5. &2nd half behinds: 7,7,8,9,4,8,5,9,6,8,10so they have made atleast 7 behinds in 12of24 halves.
(last week Sydney in the wet kicked 8 behinds in the 1st half.
& R11 sydney in wet V GC kicked 7 behinds in 2nd half.)

$5 Adel 7-8behinds in 1st half @5.20
$5 Adel 9-10 behinds in 1st half @14
$5 Adel 7-8behinds in 2nd half @4.70
$5 Adel 9-10 behinds in 2nd half @12 (all SB)

Also like North behinds odds for 1st qrtr (&each qrtr) North have got over 10behinds in 10/13 games
1u 2behinds 1st Q@3.30
1u 3b 1st Q @4.90
1u 4b 1st Q @9.50
0.2u 5b 1st Q @20
0.1u 6b 1st Q @34
0.1u 7b+ 1st Q @96 (all SB)
could do the same for adelaide but purely chasing the value on norths odds here, aiming for the 4 behinds, but any of these atleast breaks me even.

 

[Robo87]

Round 15 thread not up yet but Richmond at $3.30 to beat Port is great value

not confident on picking a winner but will go the line: 1u Rich +21.5 @1.87

 

[chrisdon16]

It's probably a no bet game for me anyway, feel more confident and have bet on the Fremantle v Collingwood unders.

Only thing is the forecast just states rain, doesn't say morning or night

 

[chrisdon16]

Actually, it's just been updated to morning and afternoon so could be clear by night

 

[chrisdon16]

Richmond/Brisbane-O190.5
Hawthorn/Gold Coast-U195.5

 

[Sausage Legs]

have zero stats to back this up (cbf looking too) but from memory didnt teams generally struggle and get rolled alot directly after bye rounds.

 

[Geeves Train]

This might be a long shot but I am not minding Crows vs North 34+ goals or 31-33 goals at $251 and $101 on luxbet.

This obviously ignores that 80% chance of rain as it won't happen if that's the case. But if there is no rain (20% chance) then I would think a shootout is possible and 31 goals plus could happen. It's $35 on Sbet at the moment and that's only for 31-32 goals.

 

[Garlic muncher]

Back Collingwood this weekend, the boys should be fired up. i saw 1.82

 

[iluvparis]

Back Collingwood this weekend, the boys should be fired up. i saw 1.82

Why will they be fired up?

 

[Garlic muncher]

Why will they be fired up?

Just a punt they will be.

 

[Jugada]

What if Freo are fired up too though?

 

[Garlic muncher]

What if Freo are fired up too though?

I guess we will have to call the fire brigade.

 

[Lensen]

bet on hawthorn i predict they will be a professional football team playing and preparing professionally and not arbitrarily altering their motivation based on how they feel that week

 

[iluvparis]

bet on hawthorn i predict they will be a professional football team playing and preparing professionally and not arbitrarily altering their motivation based on how they feel that week

Square

 

[Profphat]

Wasnt teams returning from a bye in the past few years not "switched on"?

 

[mookieb]

bet on hawthorn i predict they will be a professional football team playing and preparing professionally and not arbitrarily altering their motivation based on how they feel that week

I think that teams performance varies based on other factors rather than strategy, team line ups etc. Of course there not arbitrarily altering their motivation (yes I realise your taking the piss), but human nature dictates that performance can be positively or negatively affected by a variety of factors.

I've been documented a few occasions that I have bet on that have worked well. If you look at GWS thrashing Sydney one week and nearly losing to Essendon the next week (who had just lost by 79 and 108 points) you would have to wonder. GWS had just played what I considered a "mini Grand Final" the week before and Essendon had been called out in the media and by past greats for their atrocious behaviour.

Anyway copped a bit of crap last time I mentioned it so it's I understand that the majority don't think it can be done.

 

[mookieb]

Richmond/Brisbane-O190.5
Hawthorn/Gold Coast-U195.5

Rich/Bris game is over 194.5 on Bet365.