Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[BluesRule]

Yes, had crossed my mind.
He is too talented to play down back his whole career IMO.
Rance is a superb, in fact better than superb tall defender. Plays the intercept and counter punch role so well. Best at it right now.
But, I am not sure he has the class and ability to go forward and make an impact, like an 18 y.old , standing on one foot Weitering did last weekend.
Weiters showed he can take contested marks up forward, and reminded us again what a stunning kick he is. Those attributes are arguably wasted down back.
I think Bolts sees Weiters as not a defender per se, but as a wild card, as a once in a generation exemplary tall.
My gut feel is the club are keen to see just how good the kid can be up forward. But we might not see that straight away, as Bolts is on record that he wants the kids to settle in one spot first. So defense will be that spot initially for JW. But, lets say in 12 months Bolts starts playing JW forward for an extended run, what happens if JW kicks bags of 4+ every week, and totally dominates as a forward? Does he leave him there? Does it go from D:F 70:30 to F: D 70:30?
Remember, there's a bit of a saying that a defender is often someone who couldn't dominate as a forward. Not saying this is a cast iron rule, but I think it is fair to say that applies a lot. A club would take a 70-100 goal forward over a great full back most of the time, unless they already had a 70-100 goal FF.

Geelong premierships were built on the brilliance of Scarlett down back (with great support/structure).
Hawks have had Gibson as there best player in recent premiership years (with great support/structure).
You win the game by stopping scoring just as much as you do by actually scoring (1-0 is still a win!).
Weiters is a leader and will organise our counterattack and ultimately captain the team.

 

[1981]

Im not worried about getting the players, because as you said, its an even, and pretty deep draft. They'll be there.

Im just worried about value. I'm concerned we might end up with say, Ainsworth at #4 when we could of had, Drew and Powell-Pepper at #14 and #16 if we traded our first to GWS for their and Geelongs first. Something like that you know, just worried we may be at a really bad position draft wise, at the top of a choker-point.

I see your point.

I think there is a lot of water to go under the bridge.

Will SOS do the mooted GWS4 trade? If so you can possibly kiss a first round pick goodbye (if the rumour we initially heard was true).
But as much as I hate seeing first round picks get traded, I can see the value in getting multiple players back, so long as they are quality.

And if it is very even and 4 is the same as 14, then we have to hope SOS trades to maximise that for us. So maybe he trades 4 for 17 and 19.

 

[1981]

Weiters is a leader and will organise our counterattack and ultimately captain the team.

You have a crystal ball do you? That is a big, absolute statement you just made.

Geelong premierships were built on the brilliance of Scarlett down back (with great support/structure).

He was great, but I think their flags were built on more than jut that.

You win the game by stopping scoring just as much as you do by actually scoring (1-0 is still a win!).

Yes I know that.
I surely never said that defense wasn't important.

But history has shown clubs value a 70 goal forward immensely.

Again, I think it is too too early to make absolute calls on JW.
I don't even think Bolts knows how it will pan out.

But I suspect if in time JW proves to be a dominant forward, unless we have other dominant forwards (which is very possible - McKay etc), I would be surprised if Bolts doesn't use JW forward a fair bit, if not quite a lot.

It will all come down to how the rest of the list settles.

 

[HARKER]

1. Brisbane - McLuggage
2. Essendon - Brodie
3. Fremantle - Petrevski Seton
4. Gold Coast - Bowes (Carlton Bid)
5. GWS - Setterfield (Carlton Bid)
6. Carlton - Perryman, Ainsworth, Marshall, Drew, Gallucci, Scharenberg, Powell-Pepper, Clarke, McGrath, Venables will all be very even... i wouldnt like being in that position.

That just doesn't fit for me, although if someone is keen on SPS, Fremantle may be happy to sell their #3 pick for a couple of picks.
I can see Brisbane, Essendon & Fremantle open to selling their premium pick.

Wouldn't be surprised for The Dogs or even Hawthorn getting their hands onto one of the top 2 picks.
I have a feeling that this is going to be a wild trade period which will result in wildly changing holders of draft picks.

 

[1981]

The SOS analogy is a good one.
He was a stellar FB as we know, but he also could kick goals and in the end kicked over 200 goals. That is a lot of goals.

Hopefully McKay, Jack, Ben (SOS), Curnow etc become a very lethal forwardline and we can have the luxury of keeping JW down back a lot of the time.

 

[1981]

That just doesn't fit for me, although if someone is keen on SPS, Fremantle may be happy to sell their #3 pick for a couple of picks.
I can see Brisbane, Essendon & Fremantle open to selling their premium pick.

Wouldn't be surprised for The Dogs or even Hawthorn getting their hands onto one of the top 2 picks.
I have a feeling that this is going to be a wild trade period which will result in wildly changing holders of draft picks.

Yes I agree, esp given the evenness of the draft and the depth of the draft.
SOS will have his work cut out, as they all will.

Good thing is, given the type of draft is apparently is, you can just sit there and do nothing and walk away thinking you probably got 3 good kids.

 

[Sector 7G]

Of course it's not that simple but i think you are wrong in saying you should always go 'best available' no matter the circumstances.

You say 'depends how good they are'...so what if a key defender or small defender was the best available at our first pick, but the next best player was an inside mid and only very very marginally worse? Then no, we should go for the midfielder not technically the best available.

And also scouts over the journey have got i wrong before...like my example previous, Brisbane drafting Longer when they already had Leunberger was a big mistake.

Hawthorn have been the benchmark and go for best available mixed with needs basis...even before they were dominant.
Eg Go way back to 2004....Roughead and Franklin weren't expected to go as high as Hawthorn picked them, but they identified they wanted the key tall forwards early in the draft and that proved to the correct tactic...key forwards need to be taken in the first round or two.

TBH i dont know how anyone can argue against my point.

Another good example is the Hawks picking Thorp ahead of Dangerfield. Their talls hadn't developed so took another tall when they should have taken a small.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

That just doesn't fit for me, although if someone is keen on SPS, Fremantle may be happy to sell their #3 pick for a couple of picks.
I can see Brisbane, Essendon & Fremantle open to selling their premium pick.

Wouldn't be surprised for The Dogs or even Hawthorn getting their hands onto one of the top 2 picks.
I have a feeling that this is going to be a wild trade period which will result in wildly changing holders of draft picks.

I just put him up there for the WA connection, but I could see Freo taking a player like him, with Mundy close to the end and Barlow being moved on at the end of the year they need to build their midfield as well.

I think they-ll get McCarthy with their second and take a mid with their first.. or trade it. But we know Freo's history with trading away high picks is not good. They may be trigger shy

 

[La Dispute]

If he ends up like Rance I won't complain, bec Rance has a massive impact on games.
But I still think JW is maybe one of the most talented talls we have seen in a long, long time.
Gibson, Rance etc I think it is fair to say can't crack it as great forwards. But what is JW can?
I think time will tell. I think Bolts wants to see how JW develops.
If he can be like Rance or even better (ie: a Rance who can also kick 70 goals a year) then we will be very fortunate.

This is a pretty accurate summary, albeit Weitering has quite a bit to do on the defensive side of his game.

A lot of those skills JW displays are highly transferrable and can be adapted to both ends; in particular his contested marking, football smarts and impact on the contest.

What Bolton has indicated is that he wants players to be able to master one position, but also be able to fill other roles as the game dictates. Hawthorn have a number of players who rotate through several positions during the course of the season, which allows them to keep their structure, create new opportunities and develop more broadly.

Roughead was predominantly a forward but could ruck and then float back, Burgoyne plays inside and outside, off half-back and can creep forward, Mitchell can run off half back, Hodge can play a plethora of roles and Jack Gunston is playing more and more up the ground.

In the long-run it makes your list more dynamic and enables you to adapt to a variety of match-day situations.

 

[1981]

Another good example is the Hawks picking Thorp ahead of Dangerfield. Their talls hadn't developed so took another tall when they should have taken a small.

Thorp was seen as a running tall, almost a utility. That was his strength. Wasn't seen as a pure tall tall.
Again, can you show me any evidence that HAw had a tall policy?
'Should have taken a small'...really? Says who?

 

[BluesRule]

You have a crystal ball do you? That is a big, absolute statement you just made.



He was great, but I think their flags were built on more than jut that.



Yes I know that.
I surely never said that defense wasn't important.

But history has shown clubs value a 70 goal forward immensely.

Again, I think it is too too early to make absolute calls on JW.
I don't even think Bolts knows how it will pan out.

But I suspect if in time JW proves to be a dominant forward, unless we have other dominant forwards (which is very possible - McKay etc), I would be surprised if Bolts doesn't use JW forward a fair bit, if not quite a lot.

It will all come down to how the rest of the list settles.

I am fine with all your comments 1981 and understand where you are coming from.
I think Weiters is a once in a generation player and I am happy to state that I think he will be our Captain in time (not next year).
SOS was brilliant as a forward (remember 10 goals in Round 16, 1993 against the Fitzroy Lions) but he stayed down back and had a big involvement in the game.
Big 70 goal a year forwards can lead to team dependency and stifle avenues to goal, or get isolated/double teamed/triple teamed.
IMO Weiters will play back and we will find other avenues to Goal (McKay, SOS1, SOS2?, C.Curnow...Tomlinson?, Stewart?... maybe Kerr?...) we are only completing year one of a three year rebuild and I am loving watching how it comes together.

 

[1981]

This is a pretty accurate summary, albeit Weitering has quite a bit to do on the defensive side of his game.

A lot of those skills JW displays are highly transferrable and can be adapted to both ends; in particular his contested marking, football smarts and impact on the contest.

What Bolton has indicated is that he wants players to be able to master one position, but also be able to fill other roles as the game dictates. Hawthorn have a number of players who rotate through several positions during the course of the season, which allows them to keep their structure, create new opportunities and develop more broadly.

Roughead was predominantly a forward but could ruck and then float back, Burgoyne plays inside and outside, off half-back and can creep forward, Mitchell can run off half back, Hodge can play a plethora of roles and Jack Gunston is playing more and more up the ground.

In the long-run it makes your list more dynamic and enables you to adapt to a variety of match-day situations.

Yes very good point about his defensive game, Brereton talked of this earlier in the year.

Versatility is a great thing, and arguably more and more vital these days as you show.

 

[1981]

I am fine with all your comments 1981 and understand where you are coming from.
I think Weiters is a once in a generation player and I am happy to state that I think he will be our Captain in time (not next year).
SOS was brilliant as a forward (remember 11 goals...) but he stayed down back and had a big involvement in the game.
Big 70 goal a year forwards can lead to team dependency and stifle avenues to goal, or get isolated/double teamed/triple teamed.
IMO Weiters will play back and we will find other avenues to Goal (McKay, SOS1, SOS2?, C.Curnow...Tomlinson?, Stewart?... maybe Kerr?...) we are only completing year one of a three year rebuild and I am loving watching how it comes together.

You make a good point about over reliance.
It is an odd one, I mean clubs always say they want a multi pronged fwdline but they also won't knock back a dominant forward will they?

I tend to agree - I think we will have a good fwdline, and JW may well spend most of his time down back.
That would be a luxury.

As for Captain, well it could be JW, or PC, or SD.
PC isn't the smoothest talker - sorry for the lad.
Whereas JW is superb in that regard.
We are spoilt for choice.

 

[1981]

I tell you a player who has IMO shown some leadership traits in just 3 games is Jack Silvagni.
The contested marks he took late last week told me he has hunger and desperation.
And we know he is all Carlton.

 

[BluesRule]

You make a good point about over reliance.
It is an odd one, I mean clubs always say they want a multi pronged fwdline but they also won't knock back a dominant forward will they?

I tend to agree - I think we will have a good fwdline, and JW may well spend most of his time down back.
That would be a luxury.

As for Captain, well it could be JW, or PC, or SD.
PC isn't the smoothest talker - sorry for the lad.
Whereas JW is superb in that regard.
We are spoilt for choice.

I hope that we will have PC and JW for another 10+ years so plenty of time for them both to Captain.

 

[1981]

I have always felt if a club has a riches of leadership, that usually coincides with a strong list full stop, and that usually coincides with success.
Personally, if we were chosing between 2 kids with x pick in the draft, and all else being equal Kid A was seen as a 80/100 and Kid B was seen as a 85/100, but Kid A had great leadership traits whereas Kid B didn't, I would take Kid A.

 

[Sector 7G]

Thorp was seen as a running tall, almost a utility. That was his strength. Wasn't seen as a pure tall tall.
Again, can you show me any evidence that HAw had a tall policy?
'Should have taken a small'...really? Says who?

Both Franklin and Roughead are running talls, rather than pure Tall Talls. While Thorp fails to meet the Sheiks criteria he is still a tall (would probably have satisfied him in 2006).

Hawks recruited talls with 4 out 6 first round picks over 3 years.

With the benefit of hindsight I don't think I am alone in thinking the Hawks should have taken Selwood over Thorp.

 

[1981]

Both Franklin and Roughead are running talls, rather than pure Tall Talls. While Thorp fails to meet the Sheiks criteria he is still a tall (would probably have satisfied him in 2006).

Hawks recruited talls with 4 out 6 first round picks over 3 years.

With the benefit of hindsight I don't think I am alone in thinking the Hawks should have taken Selwood over Thorp.

So, no evidence then?

 

[BluesRule]

I know it is unethical, probably breaches AFL rules and is extremely unlikely but hypothetically...

If Brodie is perceived to be a mummy's boy (go home risk to Brisbane, Gold Coast and Freo) could he make it to us, or is he a lock for *?

 

[Blugazi]

I know it is unethical, probably breaches AFL rules and is extremely unlikely but hypothetically...

If Brodie is perceived to be a mummy's boy (go home risk to Brisbane, Gold Coast and Freo) could he make it to us, or is he a lock for *?

Brodie would be a good replacement for Jobe, but he might be viewed as lacking a point of differencing and having limited scope for improvement which could see him move down the order a bit.

 

[No1Suspect]

Ainsworth is a little brick

Dunno about brick just yet cobba, I'm 178, I remember at pioneers training I was roughly 76kgs nothing of me at all.... recon if he can get up to 86 odd kgs he will be fine though

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Dunno about brick just yet cobba, I'm 178, I remember at pioneers training I was roughly 76kgs nothing of me at all.... recon if he can get up to 86 odd kgs he will be fine though

Just looking at his physique compared to most of the others.

 

[Blues90]

We need seton

 

[Blues90]

Just looking at his physique compared to most of the others.

Hear what you are saying but I think essendon are really into him don't think he will slide far... I hope we get seton or brodie

 

[djw1952]

Thanks for that. There's about 10 players there that they've listed as the early stand outs, four of them being midfielders.

Keeping our first pick next year is a must.

I said that about a month ago on our list forum, (about next year being a bumper crop of kids according to C.Twomey and Sanderson) and got jumped on for my troubles by a few on here, so now people seem to believe in what Twomey is saying about the 2017 draft and think that we should hang onto our early picks as I alluded to in the other forum.......my how things have changed !!! Some people are too busy being critical to keep an open mind about a possibility it seems !!! p.s. don`t shoot the messenger!!!