2016 Ladder Predictions

[Janus]

Yeah it's a reasonable point re Collingwood.
Looking purely at "Best 22" we only have the Pies ranked 7th yet the season projections have them 3rd on average. The reason is two fold. Firstly: we have a random injury generator in the simulations and we rate Collingwood's "23-30" on list higher than any other side leaving them well placed on depth. Secondly they have a friendly draw (Carlton and Melbourne twice is a huge bonus).

It's so volatile though - the fact that we could have Port dropping from 2nd to 7th (albeit effectively equal 4th) on the back of the removal of just 2 players (neither of whom we rated as elite) is a fairly good demonstration of the uncertainty of predictions and impact of season ending injuries (or conversely a player having a break out season that lifts their rating considerably).

So really all these predictions can be taken with a grain of salt (which is a shame for me because the simulation model took weeks to set up!)

I'd probably tweak the injury generator then. You could probably do a sliding scale of probability - starting with 4.5% chance in R1 (when everyone is at peak conditioning) and then gradually ramping it up by that percentage each round once the wear and tear of the season takes its toll on hamstrings etc. It makes logical sense to do it that way - and also increases the possibility of simulating older players being rested for general soreness in later rounds. If you wanted to get really technical you could even do a partial "reset" when a team has the bye.

Don't know how hard that would be though.

 

[Jack_the_Ninja]

4th flag? how cute.

Wasn't trying to troll you blokes...wink wink Freo

 

[Sprout]

We're due some luck, been hanging out so long for our 4th flag ( 10 years this year )

Hang in there buddy.

 

[adammania9]

Lol Essendon below Carlton hahahaha.

Y'all were saying?

 

[Milanista28]

Y'all were saying?

I still think we have a chance at finishing above them, No bans and we were 100% guaranteed to.

 

[GarnerSmash]

but the poor lebowski someone pissed on his rug and now you will deprive him of this!

A round one victory would really tie the season together.

 

[adammania9]

I still think we have a chance at finishing above them, No bans and we were 100% guaranteed to.

100% guaranteed to is a joke. You're supporting your team which is nice, but that's insane. Your list is full of potatoes. You were hardly any better than the Blues before and you're certainly not better now.

 

[Ahern2Boof]

11. North Melbourne (their list is aging and it will cost them dearly alos need another big year out of Peitre as there isnt much more up forward)

I'm not usually one to call out posters when they have opinions on my side, because everyone has an opinion, but this one is just false.

Our leading goalkickers for 2015 were:

42: Jarrad Waite, Drew Petrie
39: Shaun Higgins
34: Lindsay Thomas
32: Ben Brown
24: Robbie Nahas, Brent Harvey

I believe we have one of the most potent forward lines in the competition, which will only be helped by the addition of Jed Anderson, another pre-season into Aaron Black and recent high draft picks Sam Durdin and Ben McKay.

 

[Ahern2Boof]

1. West Coast - unreal depth, the inclusions of Mackenzie and Brown will allow McGovern to play wherever they need him. A full season from Jack Darling will add to their unreal forward potency

2. Hawthorn - the champs will be back up there again. Lake and Hale are big losses but they'll find ways to replace them. Midfield and forward line still remain deadly

3. North Melbourne - will be buoyed by the last couple of seasons. If their clean bill of health continues through the pre-season, they'll hit Round 1 with a full head of steam and (hopefully) start the season off the right way

4. Sydney - a team full of stars. one of the best midfields in the league, coupled with a deadly forward line. Defence is a big worry, as well as their depth, which is nearly non-existent. If they suffer injuries to vital players, they'll drop down the ladder

5. Geelong - will surge back up the ladder on the back of some gun recruits. Still a very tough team to beat at home, they'll be aided by an easy fixture

6. Port Adelaide - the loss of Ryder will hurt, but Lobbe is a very good ruckman. The inclusion of Dixon will help their forward line potency, which is already strong with Schulz, Wingard and Westhoff

7. Fremantle - their list management has been almost negligent, leaving Pavlich as their only experienced key forward at the age of 34. Bennell will add to their unbelievable midfield, but big question marks over whether they can kick a regular winning score

8. Collingwood - surely have to put it all together sooner or later. Have looked a very good side at times in the past few seasons before falling away. Add Treloar, Aish and Howe, as well as a fit Greenwood, and they should do enough to book a finals spot

9. Adelaide - still a very good side despite the loss of Dangerfield. Forward line is amazing, midfield has some good players, while defence is young but steady. Keen to see Brad Crouch return and get back to his best

10. Richmond - a good side capable of beating anyone on their day, but can also lose to teams below them on the ladder. I think their best 15-22 players can expose them at times, as well as their lack of small forwards. Outside of Riewoldt, Vickery and Martin, who will kick their goals?

11. Western Bulldogs - can easily see this side winning a premiership in a few seasons, but they might struggle to stay ahead of the curve in 2016. Can everything work for them as well as it did last year? History says no, so I think they'll suffer a minor dip in form

12. Greater Western Sydney - a good side, on the cusp of becoming a great side. Loss of Treloar is a massive blow, but they have plenty of midfield guns in the wings, including untried first round draft picks Hopper, Kennedy, Ahern and Pickett. Out of all sides in the bottom 10 of this prediction, the Giants are the ones I feel most uncomfortable about. Should be higher

13. Gold Coast - the return of Ablett, as well as stars like Swallow, Prestia and O'Meara will mean they are much more competitive in 2016. Forward line took a blow with the loss of Dixon. We know Lynch will stand tall in attack, but can Wright and Day?

14. Melbourne - slowly but surely getting there. Once again will surprise a few teams above them on the ladder, but might stumble against the likes of St Kilda, Carlton and Brisbane

15. St Kilda - like the Giants, I feel as if the Saints don't deserve to be this low. They played exhilarating footy at times last year. Definitely on the right path

16. Brisbane - the building blocks are in place. Schache, Hipwood, McStay, Gardiner and Andrews are fantastic key position prospects. If they all stay at the Lions, they'll be a force in a few seasons

17. Carlton - still a very weak team, as I just can't see where they can kick a winning score from. But I like what they've done over the off-season, they've turned their image around and I think Bolton is the right man to lead them out of the mire

18. Essendon - basket-case

 

[rickjames]

7. Fremantle - their list management has been almost negligent, leaving Pavlich as their only experienced key forward at the age of 34. Bennell will add to their unbelievable midfield, but big question marks over whether they can kick a regular winning score

It's this which is mostly inaccurate. If you go through the drafts of probably the past 8 years when Freo had their pick there's bare bones to talls available, think only Michael Hurley in 2008 a when they selected Stephen Hill over him comes to mind. The other year when Weller was selected they could have taken Durdin/Lever or Goddard but they must not have rated them as high. You can't just draft a tall bloke if they're rated 3rd round with your 1st round due to height.
Games are won and lost in the middle more often than not, where Freo have fallen flat is the lack of goals from the midfield, they scored fine for the first half last season. Any team that adds Harley Bennell to this mix will surely improve that area. But yeah wait and see.

 

[TeeJay Blue]

I still think we have a chance at finishing above them, No bans and we were 100% guaranteed to.

I picked Essendon to finish below Carlton before the bans were even handed out.

Carlton's talent pool is very shallow, but Essendon's right now is 10 times worse.

But I think talent is very overrated by the media. It is effort that is the main issue for teams at the bottom.

The blues will go in all guns blazing. I just feel that it won't be the same for your mob after all they have gone through.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Forget wins will be a development year just get as many games into the younger players as possible and focus on the future also having a couple of high picks for finishing bottom 4 wont hurt.

 

[blueiris]

Forget wins will be a development year just get as many games into the younger players as possible and focus on the future also having a couple of high picks for finishing bottom 4 wont hurt.

How would you get a couple of picks you definitely wouldn't be getting a priority pick

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

How would you get a couple of picks you definitely wouldn't be getting a priority pick

If we finish last will get pick #1 and will probably have 2 picks in the mid 20's also don't think the club will ask for the priority pick.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Top 8

1. Hawthorn
2. West Coast
3. Geelong
4. Richmond
5. Port
6. North
7. Adelaide
8. Fremantle

 

[Richo Man]

1. Fremantle
2. Port Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Richmond
5. West Coast
6. Western Bulldogs
7. North Melbourne
8. Geelong
9. Sydney
10. GWS
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Adelaide
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Essendon

I do like the originality of this ladder. But can I ask what makes you think Melbourne and St Kilda will finish above Collingwood and Adelaide? I see big improvements coming from both Dees and Saints, but not to the extent of jumping Pies and Crows.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

If we finish last will get pick #1 and will probably have 2 picks in the mid 20's also don't think the club will ask for the priority pick.

Don't fort the picks that you'll receive after the exodus of players at the end of the year.

 

[yyou]

Went through the draw and did all my picks. Ended up with
Sydney - 18 Wins
Coll - 18 Wins
Freo - 18 Wins
Haw - 18 Wins
Geel - 17 Wins
Adel - 15 Wins
Port- 15 Wins
NM - 14 Wins

Bull - 13 Wins
Wc - 12 Wins
Rich - 11 Wins
GC - 7 Wins
St - 7 Wins
Mel - 6 Wins
GWS - 5 Wins
Bris - 5 Wins
Carl - 2 Wins
Ess - 0 Wins

hate seeing my team rated so lowly, but love the variation from the "sheep"

 

[yyou]

Starting to get nervous, got a feeling we're going to be average this year. Draw favoured us heavily last year and we kicked some big scores but opposition teams would of worked out ways to beat us in the off season.

We're due some luck, been hanging out so long for our 4th flag ( 10 years this year ) don't think this team is special enough yet but we're getting close.

Dogs & Saints fans especially are feeling sorry for your long drought

 

[Kram]

Hawthorn
Geelong
Richmond
Fremantle
Sydney
West Coast
Port Adelaide
Adelaide
--------------
Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne
Western Sydney
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Brisbane
St Kilda
Carlton
Essendon

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Don't fort the picks that you'll receive after the exodus of players at the end of the year.

Was mentioned a few days ago that players can leave as DFA

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

We made a prelim without Ryder, Dixons inclusion covers him up forward. Monfries can be covered easily. Inconvinience but not "lol wont even make the top 8" worthy.

Best 22 still solid... But you just lost depth for your ruck/forwards.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Its only 1 player really, Monfries is no big loss for them. As for Ryder, 1 player doesn't make a team. Port will still make the 8 and push for top 4 unfortunately. Port will want to hope Lobbe doesn't get injured.

True but I could say the same about Jacobs for you lot

 

[Jack_the_Ninja]

Dogs & Saints fans especially are feeling sorry for your long drought

Minnows.

 

[Forward Press]

Don't turn a ladder prediction thread into Hot Topic Mk II.

Also another reminder, no shitfights.

Thanks.