Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[sosos]

What is it with some posters? Everyone writing Smith off now? Can we cool the jets on these unhelpful exaggerations? Just because it suits a narrative to suggest a player is getting hard done by, it is rarely the case when "everyone" agrees on anything around here. Sheesh..........

Backed off the "everyone" only moments later.

 

[DangerousD]

Um Tomlinson, Hoskin Elliott and Marchbank would not just be 'depth' for Carlton...they'd clearly be easily best 22 players.

I mean, did you really just compare them to Nathan Van Berlo who is like 29 and just not very good???

No i did not compare them to Nathan Van Berlow, I stated that those 3 players would add to our depth. By adding three players with one pick you improve the clubs depth by adding three players who will be best 22. DFA's can be picked up to replace any fringe player traded eg Van Berlow.

 

[DangerousD]

Sign me up DD. We massively win this one.

I was a bit enthusiastic.

 

[DangerousD]

The Bulldogs have shown it is possible to start challenging that quickly...port did as well even though they are doing poorly now.

It's ambitious and everything would have to go right, but I think it's possible that we can challenge for a flag with Murphy and Gibbs still around if we continue this steep improvement curve and recruit players like tomlinson and some mids

Edit: Geelong were on the slide..they went big last trade period trading draft picks for players that filled needs and now they are in premiership contention.

How quickly could we rise if this off season we got tomlinson, Marchbank and prestia for example? Even if it meant trading virtually all our draft picks this year so what that's 3 young guns.

Yes but the bulldogs also traded out guns like Cooney and griffen as they new they would not be around for the next flag, Murphy and Boyd are fighting to hang on but will they make it.

The Cats were on the slide and it is too early to tell if they made the right move, if they don't win this year they will have more retirements and no first round pick this draft.

Realistically i can see us challenging for 8th spot or higher in 2018 and top 4 in 2019, kind of like the dogs from 2015 and 2016 and ready to challenge for the top pize in 2020. Murphy would by 33, Gibbs 32, Kruz 31.

 

[DangerousD]

Not Going To Be Around Long Enough
Kade Simpson, Jed Lamb, Sam Rowe, Dennis Armfield, Nick Graham, Andrejs Everitt, Ed Curnow, Dale Thomas, Michael Jamison, Levi Casboult, Zach Tuohy, Matthew Wright, Andrew Walker, Dylan Buckley, Liam Jones, Dillon Viojo-Rainbow, Jason Tutt, Mark Whiley, Clem Smith, Jayden Foster, Matthew Dick, Daniel Gorringe, Simon White, Ciaran Sheehan, Billy Gowers, Cameron Wood, Andrew Gallucci, Matthew Korcheck

How is Dylan Buckley on two of your lists? Also i would think Tuohy would be around long enough. On another note if this list is gospel then any third round pick or higher for any of those players should be taken.

 

[DangerousD]

I suspect a big name player of ours will be up for trade come the end of this season. It's all part of it imo.
I'm not saying it should be Gibbs, but I'm wondering peoples thoughts on a scenario like the following?

- We trade Gibbs to Gws along with our first (currently pick 7)

- We receive Marchbank, Tomlinson, gws' ontraded first round pick from Collingwood (currently pick 8. I expect by the end of this season for it to be approx 12) and gws' first or the one they received from Geelong (let's say pick 16)

Again, I'm not saying trade Gibbs or if this is a realistic option. Just having a Saturday think.

We then could offer pick 12 to freo for Lachie Neale.

Who knows after that. We could potentially chase Prestia with pick 16 or something added to it and I'd very much like to see us go after Mayes from Brisbane and Crouch from Adelaide. Feel there's huge upside with these 2 players that wouldn't cost a first round pick.

I think if we could add Neale, Prestia, Mayes, Crouch, Marchbank and Tomlinson in this off season our club, it would have a huge new look to it with the upside significant.

Just spitballing people.

Agree that i think a few players will be up for trade just unsure on who or what strategy. As GWS love points and future points it makes third round picks more valuable than ever, we currently have two of them. We also have a few players that may attract bids in the third round. Doubt Neale is leaving but would love to have him.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

With Brisbane targeting Jenkins and other mid career KPs do we have any interest in any of their younger ones that may be pushed out? If there is one thing that they have its loads of young KP's.

The offer is ridiculous. Schache, McStay, Close when fit, Freeman, Hipwood playing forward in the NEAFL.

They need backman & small forwards. Not sure which of those I'd be keen on for us, I liked Close before he did his knee.

As an aside, have liked the look of Tomlinson tonight. Perfect for modern footy.

 

[4thchicken]

Ideal situation for me

• touhy (small scg would suit touhy's kicking) + future 2nd round -> Syd -> reid (potentially not in best 22 anymore) + future 1st round -> strengthen's our KPP stocks + pick upgrade in future draft)
• everitt (a finisher, GCS previously shown interest) + 2 X 3rd round -> GCS -> 1st round pick (gcs keep the better of melb or GCS pick) + we agree not to bid on any suns academy players <- can't see us using 2 X 3rd round picks so trade to improve draft position (values everitt @ pick 25-30)
• trade future 1st round (GCS) +2016 2nd round -> GWS -> mid 1st round pick (of the GWS 3) + tomlinson (contract relief) + WHE (contracted, out of favour) + ahern/marchbank (injury doubts, needing change of scenery, GWS picks which one they'd like to lose) + we don't bid for any GWS academy players <- somewhat similar to previous trade (future cats pick for current year pick + taking excess players off GWS for list/salary management - sending current year second round pick back to offset the points from 1st round pick lost)

delist/retire - Jamison, walker, tutt, whiley foster, dick, wood (r), gowers (r), sheehan (r) <- re-rookie if we think there is something to continue on with)
elevate - byrne,

means 8 main list changes offset by 1 elevations + 4 players -> 3 picks in main draft. Also 4 rookie draft selections

Main draft -> 3 X 1st round picks - on current ladder positions, would be approximately picks 6 (blues - best available), 10 (dees from GCS - best available), 15 (GWS - list needs)

2017 draft -> Loss of second round offset by gain of sydney's 1st round (depending on ladder, effective 5-15 pick upgrade)

 

[LordLucifer]

How is Dylan Buckley on two of your lists? .

Typo.

 

[Golden Tonsils]

Really enjoyed Tomilsons game tonight though I really want to see him up forward or on ball

 

[ParapMarkets]

People keep talking about us possibly trading next years first pick. I really ****ing hope we don't do that! We are building but we are still a long way off. We need a few more drafts, especially with some quality midfield talent.

I don't see us keeping this years pick, I see it being packaged with later picks for Marchbank, Tomlinson etc. maybe with a later 1st round pick coming our way if we throw in a pick from say an Everitt trade.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

What would people be happy to trade for Marchbank and Tomlinson if they were for separate draft picks?

 

[ParapMarkets]

What would people be happy to trade for Marchbank and Tomlinson if they were for separate draft picks?

Marchbank will be expensive! He was a pick 6 and has proven to be deserving of that, they don't want to lose him, that's the problem I have with that trade. My question is why keep spending high draft picks in KPD?

it depends how SOS sees the draft, if he doesn't rate the mids at our pick then we should strengthen our KPP stocks and play the percentages. My gut feel is we we will be getting Marchbank and Tomlinson this year.

 

[Wickzki]

What would people be happy to trade for Marchbank and Tomlinson if they were for separate draft picks?

For Marchbank I'd try and work a trade to get a second second round pick and ship the two to GWS. The points help them. Would enable them to trade up in the draft and have points left over - essentially multiple 2 for 1 trades for them.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

For Marchbank I'd try and work a trade to get a second second round pick and ship the two to GWS. The points help them. Would enable them to trade up in the draft and have points left over - essentially multiple 2 for 1 trades for them.

So no first round pick for either?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Marchbank will be expensive! He was a pick 6 and has proven to be deserving of that, they don't want to lose him, that's the problem I have with that trade. My question is why keep spending high draft picks in KPD?

it depends how SOS sees the draft, if he doesn't rate the mids at our pick then we should strengthen our KPP stocks and play the percentages. My gut feel is we we will be getting Marchbank and Tomlinson this year.

Maybe I've been living under a rock, but what has Marchbank actually done to be deserving of that high pick still as you mentioned?

 

[Wickzki]

So no first round pick for either?

Unless we can acquire one in trade I wouldn't be trading out our first. I don't believe a 'resetting' team gets to where they need to by trading out their premium picks.

Except in the case where the scouts and SOS believe that the draft pick where we draft from are duds. Then I'd hope for one live draft pick and Jesse Glass-McCasker and Ciaran Byrne upgrades.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Maybe I've been living under a rock, but what has Marchbank actually done to be deserving of that high pick still as you mentioned?

A lot more than McKay will show in his first year and a bit. Second year player and has shown a lot! People tend to view high draft pick players very lowly in their early years compared to the pick itself!

Personally, I don't see the need to spend another high draft pick on a KPD. We need quality mids, but I will back in SOS with however he goes.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Unless we can acquire one in trade I wouldn't be trading out our first. I don't believe a 'resetting' team gets to where they need to by trading out their premium picks.

Except in the case where the scouts and SOS believe that the draft pick where we draft from are duds. Then I'd hope for one live draft pick and Jesse Glass-McCasker and Ciaran Byrne upgrades.

Agreed re our first pick. Especially the following years first!
I just don't get why people think we should get these 2 with our first this year.
If they both pick us a pick 15-25 will be fine imo.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

A lot more than McKay will show in his first year and a bit. Second year player and has shown a lot! People tend to view high draft pick players very lowly in their early years compared to the pick itself!

Personally, I don't see the need to spend another high draft pick on a KPD. We need quality mids, but I will back in SOS with however he goes.

I'm not sure why the McKay discussion is even required?
Gws has talent to burn and even though they'd like to keep him, suspect if he said he was out they'd happily take a pick 15-25 for him.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I'm not sure why the McKay discussion is even required?
Gws has talent to burn and even though they'd like to keep him, suspect if he said he was out they'd happily take a pick 15-25 for him.

Hopefully we can keep our first pick, all I'm saying is that a Plowman type deal for Marchbank is near impossible.

I added McKay in the discussion because it is relevant! People question young high draft pick players in other teams when they aren't All Australian, yet tolerate them when they play for their team. For a second year player, Marchbank has shown a lot! Would you be happy to trade Curnow for a pick 15-25 this year?

 

[ferrisb]

Mids and another forward seem much more pressing than our very promising backline, BUT...

I see us at such an early stage of our rebuild that if there's a value trade in the backline (eg marchbank) we take it.

Would rather chase marchbank (or similar) for unders than a mid at fair value. Right now we need as much talent as possible, regardless of position.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Mids and another forward seem much more pressing than our very promising backline, BUT...

I see us at such an early stage of our rebuild that if there's a value trade in the backline (eg marchbank) we take it.

Would rather chase marchbank (or similar) for unders than a mid at fair value. Right now we need as much talent as possible, regardless of position.

Gonna be really interesting! I agree with you, I just see our young midfield as very lacking! I just get the feeling we are going after GWS players again.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Have a look at our midfield when we were a competitive 4th-6th placed team in around 2010

We had Judd, Murphy, Gibbs all in their prime. Scotland, Simpson, McLean running through as well.

Project forward to our midfield in 3 years time.

Who do we have in their prime, Cripps? Maybe Cuningham. Docherty might run through. Sumner maybe. Gibbs and Murphy will still be there but will be aged veterans.

Our midfield wont stack up to the 2010 one, and that only got us to a semi.

If we want to get to a premiership we will need more A-Grade midfielders.

That has to be our primary focus.

 

[Cringle]

Have a look at our midfield when we were a competitive 4th-6th placed team in around 2010

We had Judd, Murphy, Gibbs all in their prime. Scotland, Simpson, McLean running through as well.

Project forward to our midfield in 3 years time.

Who do we have in their prime, Cripps? Maybe Cuningham. Docherty might run through. Sumner maybe. Gibbs and Murphy will still be there but will be aged veterans.

Our midfield wont stack up to the 2010 one, and that only got us to a semi.

If we want to get to a premiership we will need more A-Grade midfielders.

That has to be our primary focus.

Gibbs wasn't in his prime in 2010.