Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[1981]

Murphy plays the 3 weeks before last, we could have won games against WC, Syd and Haw.

Our problem is our bottom 6 are poor. Kerridge turns it over. Cas can't kick. Graham wears concrete boots. Buckley seems lost and misses targets. We need to use trade week and the draft to get more reliable ball users. It's not that difficult. For years this club didn't rate highly good kicking skills. We drafted kids who can't kick, time and time again. That will change now, I hope. Bolts is from Haw, he will demand that change in focus.

 

[Malifice]

To say that the Hawks dynasty is built of trading players is to dismiss the game plan and systems and culture, which I am sure most would agree is the main reason for their success.

I didnt dismiss game plan and culture. My argument is that they're both useless without actual talent.

You're creating a flase dichotomy. I want game plan, culture and talent.

All teams have topliners.

Wanna compare our 'topliners' with the Hawks? Name our best 5 players. Lets see how they stack up against the Hawks best 5.

And, in any event what older player would we part with now to get the no.1 pick? It wouldn’t happen.

I wasnt arguing for pick 1. I was arguing for more 1st round draft picks to fill a massive gap in talent that we have.

If we sit on our hands and do nothing to improve our draft position over the next 3-4 years, we're royally screwed. We'll be lucky just to undo the past 10 years of drafting blunders even if we nail every single draft pick over that time. Thats 3-4 years of world record breaking recruiting not to get ahead of the pack mind you; just to undo past mistakes and draw even.

 

[1981]

Casboult is the key IMO. Another club could cough up a decent pick for him.

 

[Dramoth]

Our recruiting and player development over the years is embarrassing to say the least, gone are the days you could do the Carlton quick fix and get the CHEQUE book out and practically buy a premiership.

It has taken until Bolton and Silvagni have come to the club to put us on the right path and start to build from the ground up. This is going to be a long and strategic process which has to be done mainly via the draft, if the CFC is ever going to see success again.

The reality is players like Gibbs, Murphy and Kruezer are more than likely not going to be there when we can seriously challenge but we also can't afford to off load them and leave the side without senior experience and mature bodies.

If you trade Gibbs then who replaces him, it's true he has currency but at what expense. If we had depth in the midfield and youngsters developing coming through then you can mount a case for him to be traded.

We are not in a situation whereby we can trade out our top shelf talent unless the deal was too good to refuse.

We have started the rebuild in the right way and we must continue to draft in as much young talent as possible and this will take a long time but if done properly then the CFC will contend and remain competitive for a long time.

For now we must try to remain patient and look for the positives as it is a long road ahead.

I would actually look at trading Murphy or Gibbs next year... get in a couple of mids this year via the trade period and then next year, go to the first round for mids.

That way, we have the new A grade mid settled in along with a tier 2 mid or two. And then next year, we chase a couple more A grade mids through the draft.

 

[Soapy V]

Were not young, we're just (collectively) a middling side at best. 10 years of recruiting for a net return of 1 player will do that. It leaves holes all over the ground.

yes. we are very poor in talent and age demographic. last year we started to head in the right direction but there is a lot more to do yet

 

[Broadside]

Everyone has this obsession about first round picks and players, whereas our putrid lack of success rate in that area is probably the second biggest reason our club is in the stare its in now (after the SC sanctions)

of course you want to try and nail every pick but statistically - excluding Carlton which was outperformed in first round selections by a monkey throwing darts at a board - lower round picks have less probability of making it. You need to use judgment but also maximise your chances with higher picks. 17 other clubs are trying to also find that diamond in the rough. And we need to develop talent when we get it. Were some of our draft busts just poorly developed / played out of position?

As for salary cap penalties, most of the players from that era are in their twilight or retired. It should be irrelevant but for the fact it flawed our thinking for a further decade. Thankfully that period is past.

 

[Soapy V]

of course you want to try and nail every pick but statistically - excluding Carlton which was outperformed by a monkey throwing darts at a board - lower round picks have less probability of making it. You need to use judgment but also maximise your chances with higher picks. 17 other clubs are trying to also find that diamond in the rough. And we need to develop talent when we get it. Were some of our draft busts just poorly developed / played out of position?

we need both. we need to get as many picks inside top 25 as possible and we need to nail our later picks as well.

 

[1981]

Wanna compare our 'topliners' with the Hawks? Name our best 5 players. Lets see how they stack up against the Hawks best 5.

Why compare? I never said our topliners were better than the HAwthorn ones. You're putting words in my mouth.

I didnt dismiss game plan and culture. My argument is that they're both useless without actual talent.

You're creating a flase dichotomy. I want game plan, culture and talent.

.

We all want talent. But you lose a proven topliner for what? A draft pick that may or may not give you a topliner. Esp in a draft where the top dozen is supposed to be not as strong as the previous year.

I wasnt arguing for pick 1. I was arguing for more 1st round draft picks to fill a massive gap in talent that we have.

If we sit on our hands and do nothing to improve our draft position over the next 3-4 years, we're royally screwed. We'll be lucky just to undo the past 10 years of drafting blunders even if we nail every single draft pick over that time. Thats 3-4 years of world record breaking recruiting not to get ahead of the pack mind you; just to undo past mistakes and draw even.

Let's just see if the rumour of 4 GWS kids for 2 picks is true. SOS showed last year how to get quantity and quality. He cheated the system well. He needs to do it again while keeping our better players and leaders.

In any event, we have 4, 22 and 40 and they say the draft runs to 40, so we have 3 good picks. And could yet trade Levi for another decent pick.

 

[Malifice]

I'm not saying to rely on just 1 first round pick over the next few drafts or that Gibbs and co are not to be traded.
What I'm saying is that if we were to trade out guys like Gibbs we need to get something substantial in return to compensate so that we don't hang out our kids when they aren't ready.

Again; im not arguing we totally gut the list of all experience. I'm arguing for a staggered release of 1-3 experienced players a season in order to see us better placed in the draft.

My point is for Silvagni and co be creative and earn their keep by not only getting out early picks right but try and pick the eyes out of the draft and get some return from our second, third and later rounds.

If youre banking on us fixing our list problems via 3-4 drafts of 3rd and 4th round picks making it, thats a 1:1,000,000 longshot for the worlds best recruiters out there. Top 10 picks generally make it, and many become guns. 2nd rounders are generally 50/50 prospects with the odd lucky club unearthing a gun every other year. Past pick 30, and its pretty much a raffle.

Even with top line recruiters, it would be akin to winning the lottery.

Get rid of Murphy and Gibbs types now, and Cripps will get smashed and will leave in 2 years.

Im not arguing to get rid of both. I'm arguing to get rid of one. Cripps has played OK in the past month with just the one of those two in the side, I cant see that dropping away any time soon.

In a few years when Murph retires (He's 30 next year), Cripps can be the Captain.

We have Murphy, Gibbs and Cripps, 3 very good midfielders. Better to add to that in the next 2-3 years and have 6 good mids not 3.

Whats the point? In 3 years time Murphy will be 33, and Gibbs 32. Murphs already been cruelled by injury over his career. Even if both of those two can go on for another 3 years, how much longer you reckon they can go on for after that?

Whats the point? How does that help us from 2020 onwards? How does that build sustained success going into the next decade that grabbing another 1st round pick or two now, wont?

 

[Malifice]

Why compare? I never said our topliners were better than the HAwthorn ones. You're putting words in my mouth.

Of course ours arent as good. Thats why the Hawks are top of the ladder, and we arent. Its why they've won 4 flags over the past 10 years and we havent.

Culture and game plan are one thing. But they're useless without talent.

We all want talent. But you lose a proven topliner for what? A draft pick that may or may not give you a topliner. Esp in a draft where the top dozen is supposed to be not as strong as the previous year.

We lose a proven topliner for 3-4 nothing years of sitting down the bottom of the ladder (which sucks for the player as much for its a waste for us), in exchange for a great chance of adding an extra 200 gamer for the decade that follows (when we actually will be challenging), or maybe even a star during those later years we're in contention.

Its a no brainer for mine. We can either remain middling while we rebuild, the expense of talent when we're challenging, or not.

 

[Soapy V]

Of course ours arent as good. Thats why the Hawks are top of the ladder, and we arent. Its why they've won 4 flags over the past 10 years and we havent.

Culture and game plan are one thing. But they're useless without talent.



We lose a proven topliner for 3-4 nothing years of sitting down the bottom of the ladder, in exchange for a great chance of an extra 200 gamer for the decade that follows (when we actually will be challenging), or maybe even a star during those later years we're in contention.

Its a no brainer for mine.

its about the future not the past. the system says we need to trade to get more picks. no choice and hard decisions need to be made. if not we go nowhere

 

[1981]

In 3 years time Murphy will be 33, and Gibbs 32. Murphs already been cruelled by injury over his career. Even if both of those two can go on for another 3 years, how much longer you reckon they can go on for after that?

In 3 years time Murphy will be 32, and Gibbs will be 30, but don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.

 

[Broadside]

Of course ours arent as good. Thats why the Hawks are top of the ladder, and we arent. Its why they've won 4 flags over the past 10 years and we havent.

Culture and game plan are one thing. But they're useless without talent.



We lose a proven topliner for 3-4 nothing years of sitting down the bottom of the ladder (which sucks for the player as much for its a waste for us), in exchange for a great chance of adding an extra 200 gamer for the decade that follows (when we actually will be challenging), or maybe even a star during those later years we're in contention.

Its a no brainer for mine. We can either remain middling while we rebuild, the expense of talent when we're challenging, or not.

I agree with your sentiments but even if we're lucky enough to nail every draft selection, do you think the development environment at Northern Blues will get the most out of them? Perhaps many of our busts were just poor development.

 

[Malifice]

its about the future not the past.

And by future, we're talking about 2020 onwards. Sustained long term success.

I cant believe some people are stull arguing to go half arsed about this. People cant seem to see the diabolical hole we're in.

 

[Soapy V]

And by future, we're talking about 2020 onwards. Sustained long term success.

I cant believe some people are stull arguing to go half arsed about this. People cant seem to see the diabolical hole we're in.

the complacency or lack or understanding is amazing. people need to get passed "he is carlton through & through or we cant afford to lose him crap".

bulldogs traded griffen, lost lake higgins & ward and seem to have done okay

saints traded mcevoy goddard dal stanto etc and are on the right track. certainly ahead of us.

melbourne have lost frawley scully martin and others and seem to be okay.

adelaide lost dangerfield, geelong lost ablett and hawks lost franklin and they certainly dont seem to be any worse off.

 

[1981]

Again; im not arguing we totally gut the list of all experience. I'm arguing for a staggered release of 1-3 experienced players a season in order to see us better placed in the draft.

By your rationale, the draft is a lottery.

So, you lose a proven quality player for a roll of the dice?
That makes no sense.
A bird in the hand ...

I understand you are trying to look long term, but you're chosing to ignore the fact players are playing longer these days, and you're ignoring the possible negative impact on club culture of losing Gibbs and Murphy types.

You say Cripps has done well the last few weeks, that is true but how many games have we won? The loss of Murphy on this side has been profound. We have not won a game.

I think you're a bit too obsessed with crystal balling. You need to look at the present a bit. The impact of losing an integral player, esp a mid. No offense to him but Croad was nothing.

Geelong built their premiership via the draft. They aced drafts and that set them up. It can work that way.

In any event., on the one hand you're saying the draft is a lottery but on the other hand you want more picks. Doesn't stack up.

Look, I'll tell you what, if a club was dumb enough to give us a top 5 pick for Murphy or Gibbs, I would probably take it, but it won't happen.

 

[Malifice]

I agree with your sentiments but even if we're lucky enough to nail every draft selection, do you think the development environment at Northern Blues will get the most out of them? Perhaps many of our busts were just poor development.

I totally agree development needs a massive injection of funds. Its up there with recruiting for mine.

But again; this isnt an 'either or' situation.

We need better culture, a good game plan, to overhaul and improve drafting and development in major ways (these have been our major weakness), and we need more talent aged 23 and under in through the door.

Id sit down with every player 26 and over and tell them as much.

'Fellas its no secret that the next 3-4 years are going to be about development and list overhaul. Thats the clubs fault, and not yours. Youve all been loyal servants of the club. That said, I dont begrudge any of you for seeking a trade elsewhere over this period, and rest assured the club will do all it can to facilitate any reasonable trade you or your managers request, and to get you to your club of choice. Have a word to your managers, and get back to us. Those who want to stay around for the rebuild in the knowledge that we are most likely going to be sitting out September can certainly do so. We're not pushing anyone out the door; you're all valued players, and we'd like to retain some experience over the 4 years. I'll leave it with you to have a chat with your managers and to have a think about. Ideally we'd like to stagger it over the next few years to align with contracts and so forth.'

 

[Blue Pulse]

at the weekend at the ground and on radio people were talking about how a "young" side can have bad days and we are in a rebuild. this is what worries me most. "young"? we are not young. last year we drafted four young players. thats it. on the weekend we had 2 first year players. we need to go to the draft and hard. our good performances are still because of gibbs simpson armfield curnow tuohy etc. look at our list. how much genuine young talent do we have coming through? watch the reserves, it isnt pretty. it needs to change and drastically.

I wouldn't call us young but I would say we are inexperienced.

 

[Dramoth]

Casboult is the key IMO. Another club could cough up a decent pick for him.

It all depends on whether they think that they can turn around his kicking yips. If they think that is possible, then it could well be worth a late first or an early to mid second round pick for him.

If no other club decides he is worth the time and effort of trying to correct his yips, then he is worth nothing to anyone else but us.

 

[Soapy V]

So, you lose a proven quality player for a roll of the dice?
That makes no sense.
A bird in the hand ...

sorry but that's a nothing attitude. do nothing or dont take any risks we will just sit around the bottom. whats the point?

 

[Soapy V]

I wouldn't call us young but I would say we are inexperienced.

compared to who? we have simpson gibbs murphy kruezer white rowe curnow thomas casboult armfield everitt jamison tuohy wright walker jones tutt on our list. thats a lot of experience for a rebuild. we have ONLY 4 first year players of which one hasnt played

 

[ParapMarkets]

Awesome!

But where's the mids we desperately need

Hopefully Steele will agree to come to us soon, he has been most heavily linked with Richmond. Emma Quayle had an article last week reporting that Prestia has agreed to go to the Tigers, that will cost them their first pick and they already gave up their second to get Yarran. It will make it a bit harder for them to get Steele across the line. Mind you other teams like the Saints are also after him.

Apart from young gun Cripps, our young midfield stocks at the moment are horrendous.

 

[feffs93]

Raid em hard and raid em good!

**** yeah!

 

[Broadside]

okay, Kreuzer has been resilient this year. If we got a reasonable offer do we trade or is he untouchable? I think he is a jack of all trades, master of none. He has endurance, but is slow. Has height but not a great mark. Competes 100% but rarely dominates the ruck. I would take a pick between 20 and 30 and let Phillips play as the sole ruckman. Sure it's a risk but if we don't roll the dice a few times the only certainty is mediocrity, at best.

I think we could cover better for Kreuzer than Gibbs.

 

[1981]

Im not arguing to get rid of both. I'm arguing to get rid of one.

So x1 extra pick around 10-15 will be all the dif

sorry but that's a nothing attitude. do nothing or dont take any risks we will just sit around the bottom. whats the point?

Hang on, did I say do nothing?
I am just not big for trading the likes of BG or MM, that's all.

I think SOS needs to be creative, get picks without giving up our most important personnel.