Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[BlueJet]

Positionally, maybe.

But first picked in drafts are mids, key positions, gun rucks, goalkicking small forwards. Priorities for half back flankers who don't rotate through the midfield are well down on that list.

Sydney have been mentioned, mainly because they face generational change in their backline with Teddy going, Johnson and Reid injury central, Talia on drugs and Grundy turning 30. Even then, their first pick sounds too high for someone of Tuohy's years.

I get where you're going but with small forwards and ruckmen you're as likely to get one with in the rookie draft as you are with pick 1.
Small forwards/defenders value is at an all time low. (if they can't have a run on the ball)

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[Funk]

Inside info or your thoughts?

How does he go in the middle? Clearance king, tagger, or runner?

FWIW - Tomlinson had about 45 possessions playing midfield in the NEAFL a month ago.

IMO Toby Greene has the same problem. Being forced to play out of position (forward) because of the glut of MID's at GWS.

 

[Azul]

I get where you're going but with small forwards and ruckmen you're as likely to get one with in the rookie draft as you are with pick 1.

Ainsworth and English are widely tipped to go top 10 this year.

 

[Soapy V]

Absolutely re Tomlinson, makes perfect sense. He has been prolific when given the role at NEAFL level, but can't get a look in
at AFL level with their star studded midfield. We need immediate help "inside" for Cripppa, not an 18yo kid who is going to take
2-3 years to be physically ready to lend a hand. Makes perfect sense at a reasonable price.

While Marchbank will be costly, he makes perfect sense. Now the rank and file are largely convinced Weitering can be just as valuable
up forward we can fast track the rebuild with this combination, and "fill up" on young mids with other picks we have or can acquire.

i dont know them well enough but i hope youre right. get marchbank & stewart and they along with plowman weitering mckay g-mac they can hold our key positions for the next decade or so. if tomlinson can be a big inside mid i would be very happy. he along with charlie & cripps is exciting. then we just need to keep adding midfield run and class. makes drafting/trading over the next 2-3 years fairly easy

 

[BlueJet]

Ainsworth and English are widely tipped to go top 10 this year.

They're obviously nice prospects but compare that to where most of the best in their positions were drafted.
You generally don't need to pay a premium to get quality ruckmen or small forwards in the draft.



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[Blue Baggers]

Inside info or your thoughts?

How does he go in the middle? Clearance king, tagger, or runner?

II. His size gives him an advantage at clearances but can win the ball in the air in forward 50m, solid endurance runner also

 

[Coona Blues]

i dont know them well enough but i hope youre right. get marchbank & stewart and they along with plowman weitering mckay g-mac they can hold our key positions for the next decade or so. if tomlinson can be a big inside mid i would be very happy. he along with charlie & cripps is exciting. then we just need to keep adding midfield run and class. makes drafting/trading over the next 2-3 years fairly easy

Not in any way suggesting Tomlinson will be a "star" mid, but certainly a solid best 22 player, who is also versatile enough to "morph" in to a
different role as the list changes over the next few years. In the short term he could fill a great need for us inside, Reported to have Curnow/Kerridge like endurance which only improves our two-way running capacity.

I am not in favour of a Stewart trade, unless it is purely a steak knives situation. They (GWS) have had games where they have been short of KPF
and he hasn't got a look in. No major upgrade on Levi or Liam while Harry, Charlie and Jack mature.

 

[ParapMarkets]

It was interesting on Fox sports last night where they mentioned the Saints are after Hurley, 27yo contracted for another year would cost them their first pick. I know they are just doing due diligence but I am feeling as though Marchbank will be a blue next year along with Stewart and Tomlinson.

Reading SOS's thoughts on this draft I think it is certain we won't be heading to the draft with our first pick, probably looking at getting one of GWS's first rounders in a trade with those 3 players (and maybe WHE). If Collingwood finish high enough that their first pick would be after a GWS academy kid is bid on then hopefully we can get that pick and still be in the top 10.

Either that or maybe swap our first pick with GC (Melbourne's first pick) for Prestia with a later pick for points, and try and orchestrate the GWS trade some other way.

This is going to be another fascinating trade period.

 

[Azul]

I am not in favour of a Stewart trade, unless it is purely a steak knives situation. They (GWS) have had games where they have been short of KPF
and he hasn't got a look in. No major upgrade on Levi or Liam

The whole thing is predicated on someone offering Casboult and Everitt a trade and Liam seeing out next year in the VFL.

Jimmy did okay last year alongside Cameron and Cameron as 3rd tall.

He hasn't gotten game time behind Lobb and Patton this year - both of whom I regard as absolute Spuddy McSpudFaces mainly getting gigs because they're tall.

I wouldn't chase Stewart hard but has seen limited action in a star-studded list and if SOS picks him or Tomlinson up for zilch, then okay.

 

[ShanDog]

I'm not 100% sold on Tomlinson as a midfielder but neither have I seen him play enough to make an "informed" judgement on it. One thing I will say is I'm enjoying the fact that Carlton has a plan going ahead and are sticking to it, plus that plan is a little unique - how many out there would have thought of Tomlinson as a mid?

 

[ParapMarkets]

The whole thing is predicated on someone offering Casboult and Everitt a trade and Liam seeing out next year in the VFL.

Jimmy did okay last year alongside Cameron and Cameron as 3rd tall.

He hasn't gotten game time behind Lobb and Patton this year - both of whom I regard as absolute Spuddy McSpudFaces mainly getting gigs because they're tall.

I wouldn't chase Stewart hard but has seen limited action in a star-studded list and if SOS picks him or Tomlinson up for zilch, then okay.

You think Lobb is a spud? Possibly the best contested mark in the comp and an excellent second ruck / forward option. Much better player than our Casboult.

 

[F_therest]

They're obviously nice prospects but compare that to where most of the best in their positions were drafted.
You generally don't need to pay a premium to get quality ruckmen or small forwards in the draft.
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History agrees with this, as has been well documented recently.

Elite Key forwards are almost always found high in the draft and most elite mids as well...while you can get elite small forwards and ruckmen later in the draft.

Topline small forwards taken late in the draft include Betts, Puopolo, Bruest, Papley, Thomas, Walters, Fantasia, Garlett...only the likes of both Rioli's taken early.

Quality ruckmen taken later in the draft include Mumford, Goldstein, Gawn, Jacobs...some were also taken early like Kreuz, Nic Nat, Hickey & Mcevoy but they're no better than the former ones taken later in the draft.

 

[Azul]

You think Lobb is a spud? Possibly the best contested mark in the comp and an excellent second ruck / forward option. Much better player than our Casboult.

He's a second ruck, and not a dominant one, nothing more. Being better than Casboult isn't saying much. You'd expect a 206cm ruck mark a few. I wouldn't rate him in similar company to Tippett, say. I've watched him live and on telly, nothing suggests he'll make an elite player - poor man's Harry McKay.

As tall forwards, Cameron and McCarthy are their only genuine talents (and one of those has checked out already). The rest of their firepower comes from Greene and Johnson with a star-studded midfield kicking the rest.

 

[sos4pm]

Didn't change any of your points. I just listed most of them and they are mostly illogical.

What constant bad mouthing of all things Carlton? This is constant bad mouthing of Carlton?
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...-by-7-points-to-eagles.1138624/#post-45588403

There's many more posts of mine that have positive things to say about Carlton. In fact, I haven't said anything negative about them. Only, I'm not delusional to think the way you do and am realistic enough to see our flaws and take a logical way of addressing them so we become a dominant force in the future. You're clearly impatient and think that it's all just going to magically fall in place. I'll ask you how are we going to use the draft as a stepping stone for our development if we give up pick#4?

You don't even know our ladder position!

Reference to the cooking ad was because you said I was cooked. You clearly had no rebuttal so resorted to petty attacks. LOL.

I just told you that Hawthorn's ENTIRE 2008 premiership team was built through drafting apart from ONE PLAYER: Trent Croad.

Either way ....

Just to set things straight about hawthorns 2008 team, because many people use them as a yard stick.
They had 4 players from other clubs.
9 1st rounders (5 from 04-05).
3 2nd rounders
2 3rd rounders
4 rookies.
There teams best draft years were 2001 (the super draft) 2004 (3 1st rounders) 2005 ( 2st rounders). 5 of those players are still in the team and all would be in there top 10-15.

I think we are trying to emulate there 04-05 draft years now. The thing that's interesting is they traded for there experience back then. Shane Crawford was the only drafted player above 26 years old.......
Anyway they drafted well then put the work in development which I think is just as important if not more so. Which I think BB has in spades

 

[F_therest]

I'm not 100% sold on Tomlinson as a midfielder but neither have I seen him play enough to make an "informed" judgement on it. One thing I will say is I'm enjoying the fact that Carlton has a plan going ahead and are sticking to it, plus that plan is a little unique - how many out there would have thought of Tomlinson as a mid?

SOS's trading is so interesting because he is so creative...we easily had the most 'creative' trades last year and looks like we'll be big players again this year.

Eg the Menzel trade to get Kerridge & #28, which we ontraded for GWS 4....trading Hendo for Geelong future first pick and ontrading that for pick #8...even trading #20, #21 & future 4th rounder for #11 and future 3rd...

Rogers could never have come up with that stuff.

 

[F_therest]

You think Lobb is a spud? Possibly the best contested mark in the comp and an excellent second ruck / forward option. Much better player than our Casboult.

Decent kick for goal too and more agile.

 

[Doro]

He's a second ruck, and not a dominant one, nothing more. Being better than Casboult isn't saying much. You'd expect a 206cm ruck mark a few. I wouldn't rate him in similar company to Tippett, say. I've watched him live and on telly, nothing suggests he'll make an elite player - poor man's Harry McKay.

As tall forwards, Cameron and McCarthy are their only genuine talents (and one of those has checked out already). The rest of their firepower comes from Greene and Johnson with a star-studded midfield kicking the rest.

You've picked the wrong games to tune in to watch Lobb. Had a couple of blinders this year and tracking very nicely. One game in the early part of the season he equalled the record for contested marks in a quarter with 8 or 9 I think. Also a nice shot at goal.

 

[Azul]

You've picked the wrong games to tune in to watch Lobb. Had a couple of blinders this year and tracking very nicely. One game in the early part of the season he equalled the record for contested marks in a quarter with 8 or 9 I think. Also a nice shot at goal.

Clearly. I see from his stats he had a day out against Hawthorn, PA and GC - when the side as a whole scored thumping victories.

Whenever I've seen him he's kicked a token goal in junk time, like his effort against us a few weeks ago.

 

[goreds]

That makes 3 for Paul Connors today ............. Gaff, Watts & Jenkins all have re-signed with their respective Clubs.

Got sick of the phone calls...!

Connors was on holidays for a bit and obviously got hammered when he got back!

 

[Matty411]

Bit left-field, but what do people think of Jack Grimes?

Still fairly young but a lot of experience, former co-captain who's struggling to keep his spot - unfairly some could say. Also pretty sure he's uncontracted. Was an excellent HBF and showed he can rack them up in the middle in contested situations. Not the inside mid we're after, but if he came cheaply then he could be a great pickup.

Bonus is he's a RFA so wouldn't cost anything but cap space. Not sure of his worth, but could easily see him coming in and playing a role straight away.

 

[HARKER]

Bit left-field, but what do people think of Jack Grimes?

Still fairly young but a lot of experience, former co-captain who's struggling to keep his spot - unfairly some could say. Also pretty sure he's uncontracted. Was an excellent HBF and showed he can rack them up in the middle in contested situations. Not the inside mid we're after, but if he came cheaply then he could be a great pickup.

Bonus is he's a RFA so wouldn't cost anything but cap space. Not sure of his worth, but could easily see him coming in and playing a role straight away.

I don't think so as he wouldn't be the type we're after.

Sure to find a home somewhere..................maybe.

 

[Matty411]

I don't think so as he wouldn't be the type we're after.

Sure to find a home somewhere..................maybe.

Can see him going to the Tigers tbh

 

[HARKER]

Got sick of the phone calls...!

Connors was on holidays for a bit and obviously got hammered when he got back!

So they can move when they need to

 

[Jeremias]

Grimes is someone I'd like to see here but only if we move Tuohy elsewhere.

He's a better footballer than Vickery but the rationale behind bringing those two in is similar.

Move someone on, replace them with a serviceable free agent and get an extra draft pick to use as we please.

 

[Funk]

SOS's trading is so interesting because he is so creative...we easily had the most 'creative' trades last year and looks like we'll be big players again this year.

Eg the Menzel trade to get Kerridge & #28, which we ontraded for GWS 4....trading Hendo for Geelong future first pick and ontrading that for pick #8...even trading #20, #21 & future 4th rounder for #11 and future 3rd...

Rogers could never have come up with that stuff.

In defence of Rogers I don't think that was his job - he was recruiting manager.

IMO it clearly shows how important a dedicated List Manager is - and what happens when you don't have one.