List Mgmt. 2017 Draft Prospects

[giblj]

So the best we can come up with to justify Naughton is either a) about half a dozen players are moving position and/or having their whole career written off or b) we're using a GWS strategy of drafting players just to trade them except rather than having infinite top ten picks we have our first one in four years.

Yeah, I'm still not quite getting the logic in it. The biggest thing I'm hoping for right now is that this is my melting at picking Bontempelli over Aish moment.

 

[Dale4captain]

Naughton down back, Boyd into the ruck and Young to CHF?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Naughton down back, Boyd into the ruck and Young to CHF?

It's an idea, one I imagine could work. It's just strange though, that we're all trying to move and shift things around to accomodate Naughton when surely there's other players as good who actually help our team balance instead of messing with it. If we do end up drafting him my only explanation is that they think he is very much best available, by a significant margin.

 

[murphy's twin]

Naughton down back, Boyd into the ruck and Young to CHF?

How does this look?

FB Adams
HB Naughton
R Boyd
HF Schache
FF Young

The thing I struggle with is how all these talls fit in when English is ready

 

[Pugz89]

Naughton down back, Boyd into the ruck and Young to CHF?

In theory maybe but still more than enough depth without Naughton.
Trengove, Schache brought in via trade to go with Roberts, Young, Cordy, Adams, Boyd, Roughy, Redpath, Collins, Campbell, Mullenger McHugh, English. That's 13/44 at 194cm+. Maybe we're aiming to be the first team to play a team of 22 who are all in the 190s...

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Top ten most likely at our pick 9 in my opinion, based on rumour and mail (and a whole lot of guesswork):

1. Aaron Naughton
2. Nathan Murphy
3. Jaidyn Stephenson
4. Ed Richards
5. Darcy Fogarty
6. Nick Coffield
7. Oscar Allen
8. Lachlan Fogarty
9. Aiden Bonar
10. Charlie Constable

 

[Pugz89]

Top ten most likely at our pick 9 in my opinion, based on rumour and mail (and a whole lot of guesswork):

1. Aaron Naughton
2. Nathan Murphy
3. Jaidyn Stephenson
4. Ed Richards
5. Darcy Fogarty
6. Nick Coffield
7. Oscar Allen
8. Lachlan Fogarty
9. Aiden Bonar
10. Charlie Constable

Can't wait to get Cerra with our third pick.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Can't wait to get Cerra with our third pick.

Top ten most likely at pick 79:

1. Adam Cerra
2. Cameron Rayner
3. Jacob Weitering
4. Jake Stringer
5. Jason Dunstall
6. The ghost of David Bowie
7. The reanimated corpse of David Bowie
8. Kevin Rudd
9. Deadpool
10. A fish finger sandwich

 

[dogwatch]

So the best we can come up with to justify Naughton is either a) about half a dozen players are moving position and/or having their whole career written off or b) we're using a GWS strategy of drafting players just to trade them except rather than having infinite top ten picks we have our first one in four years.

Yeah, I'm still not quite getting the logic in it. The biggest thing I'm hoping for right now is that this is my melting at picking Bontempelli over Aish moment.

It's the old question of do you select "best available" or do you address list deficiencies? Even if the latter means passing up a player you assess as being a better overall footballer.

Majority view appears to be moving toward best available (although it's never going to be clear cut and not everyone here will hold that view).

This discussion addresses what happens when "best available" happens to be in one of our long suits.

So the justification in this hypothetical is neither your (a) nor your (b). They are potential consequences. The justification for picking him is simply that he would be the best available at our pick. Your (a) and (b) aren't the only possible consequences either. For instance - and without stretching credibility too much - within 12 months we could lose Morris to retirement, Adams to injury-related retirement, Young to a trade (GH Factor) and be left with an unproven Collins, 27yo Trengove, a fringe player in Roberts, Cordy and perhaps the rookie NMM. No need to go into an in-depth analysis to say that we would be exposed in defence in that scenario. A developing A-grade defender in Naughton would suddenly be a prized asset if all that were to happen.

As I said, I probably wouldn't pick him - my preference is still for a skilful, quick midfielder - but since various pundits are suggesting it might happen it's worth thinking about what the selection of Naughton would mean for us (apart from a massive melt in this thread on Friday night).

 

[Pugz89]

Top ten most likely at pick 79:

1. Adam Cerra
2. Cameron Rayner
3. Jacob Weitering
4. Jake Stringer
5. Jason Dunstall
6. The ghost of David Bowie
7. The reanimated corpse of David Bowie
8. Kevin Rudd
9. Deadpool
10. A fish finger sandwich

Immortalmike would love #9 on that list.

 

[DognBones]

Anybody think we could look at Billy Hartung for our last pick, free agent or, if still available, as a rookie? He's just come off his best year (marginally) with the Hawks playing 18 games and averaging 21 disposals. Has deficiencies but could add some pace as an outside mid.

 

[murphy's twin]

We have also just finished a year we’re we massively needed a quality KPD all year!!

I don’t think we are all of a sudden blessed with quality options.

I think it’s an easy decision to pick a quality KPD over a quality outside mid.

 

[JAMES_B_101]

Going to go find something to do until Friday, thread is getting out of hand so will be back after we make our selections to give my thoughts.

 

[Martyn_30_]

It just shows how little Brett Anderson knows about the Afl if he thinks Naughton would play round one with the key defensive options of Trengove, Morris, Adams, Cordy, Roberts and Young. As well as Beveridge generally going smaller.

Being a draft expert has got to be the easiest job in footy, as almost no one can pull you up on anything.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[CaptainMurphy]

It just shows how little Brett Anderson knows about the Afl if he thinks Naughton would play round one with the key defensive options of Trengove, Morris, Adams, Cordy, Roberts and Young. As well as Beveridge generally going smaller.

Being a draft expert has got to be the easiest job in footy, as almost no one can pull you up on anything.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

All based on the fact that he did well as a third tall defender in the WAFL. Lazy as ****.

 

[Yojimbo]

I think it’s an easy decision to pick a quality KPD over a quality outside mid.

Aaron Naughton
Sam Taylor
Oscar Clavarino
Nathan "Freddie" Kreuger
Harrison Petty
Noah Balta
Jarrod Brander

So which one is the quality KPD ?
They all have quality traits and highlight this draft.

 

[VitalDread]

Anybody think we could look at Billy Hartung for our last pick, free agent or, if still available, as a rookie? He's just come off his best year (marginally) with the Hawks playing 18 games and averaging 21 disposals. Has deficiencies but could add some pace as an outside mid.

He will end up at North in the 4th round

 

[giblj]

It's the old question of do you select "best available" or do you address list deficiencies? Even if the latter means passing up a player you assess as being a better overall footballer.

Majority view appears to be moving toward best available (although it's never going to be clear cut and not everyone here will hold that view).

This discussion addresses what happens when "best available" happens to be in one of our long suits.

So the justification in this hypothetical is neither your (a) nor your (b). They are potential consequences. The justification for picking him is simply that he would be the best available at our pick. Your (a) and (b) aren't the only possible consequences either. For instance - and without stretching credibility too much - within 12 months we could lose Morris to retirement, Adams to injury-related retirement, Young to a trade (GH Factor) and be left with an unproven Collins, 27yo Trengove, a fringe player in Roberts, Cordy and perhaps the rookie NMM. No need to go into an in-depth analysis to say that we would be exposed in defence in that scenario. A developing A-grade defender in Naughton would suddenly be a prized asset if all that were to happen.

As I said, I probably wouldn't pick him - my preference is still for a skilful, quick midfielder - but since various pundits are suggesting it might happen it's worth thinking about what the selection of Naughton would mean for us (apart from a massive melt in this thread on Friday night).

That is pretty much option A, meaning a lot has to go wrong to force the logic of the move.

I'd weight towards best available with the overall list makeup factored in. To give an example I've used before let's say we consider Sam Hayes best available at 16, I'd weigh that with our list makeup and move onto the next best available who is a better fit.

Look, maybe we think Naughton is a once in five years type KPP. If so fair enough, would have to question Collingwood passing on him when they're desperate for key defenders if that was the case but bully for us I guess.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

That is pretty much option A, meaning a lot has to go wrong to force the logic of the move.

I'd weight towards best available with the overall list makeup factored in. To give an example I've used before let's say we consider Sam Hayes best available at 16, I'd weigh that with our list makeup and move onto the next best available who is a better fit.

Look, maybe we think Naughton is a once in five years type KPP. If so fair enough, would have to question Collingwood passing on him when they're desperate for key defenders if that was the case but bully for us I guess.

Good point.

And on top of this it feels to me that if Collingwood take Naughton, we take Murphy, and vice versa.

 

[dogwatch]

Aaron Naughton
Sam Taylor
Oscar Clavarino
Nathan "Freddie" Kreuger
Harrison Petty
Noah Balta
Jarrod Brander

So which one is the quality KPD ?
They all have quality traits and highlight this draft.

And all have weaknesses too, no doubt. Pundits write up their strengths but not their weaknesses which may be just as important. For example it has been claimed in this thread:

Naughton - Poor kick
Balta - Poor decision making, questionable footy smarts
Brander - Inconsistency, can lose opposing forward, can drop easy marks​

 

[dergert]

I love draft period, mainly for dalrymple's unknown later round smokies that no one has heard of.

 

[Mofra]

The strongest rumours seem to indicate we're into Constable (slow inside mid with below average endurance) or Naughton (KPD with questionable kicking action) at pick 9.
Excited for Friday? Brisbane will take L Fogarty at 15 to screw with our plans a little further.

 

[Yojimbo]

And all have weaknesses too, no doubt. Pundits write up their strengths but not their weaknesses which may be just as important. For example it has been claimed in this thread:

Naughton - Poor kick
Balta - Poor decision making, questionable footy smarts
Brander - Inconsistency, can lose opposing forward, can drop easy marks​

Fair call DW, i am a big fan of "keep it simple" when doing write ups
on the players. Alex Rance was much maligned early in his career,
but he had elite traits like closing speed, aggression and the want
to win one on one contests. He still has the odd brain fart like
punching Jack Watts in the back of the head, but he has justified
the traits he showed as a kid.

The worrying thing for me is whether the season review came up
with losing "Joel Hamling" and the "Stringer Issues" as the major
reason we missed finals, but to be honest you would have to be
an insider to know that for sure. Of course some people could
be right that Bevo does not rate some of the players we have
filling the KPD roles, the persistence with Lewis Young towards
the end of the season when he had had enough after his first
three games clearly backs that up.

 

[stefoid]

All valid points but
Morris is in his last year. Let’s be honest, Adams is one injury on that foot away from retirement.

Fletcher and Collins are holding on by a thread.

Naughton also appears to have far more counter attack and dare in his game than any of the above.

I’m sure the club has a preference for a number who fit our requirements but if they are gone

agreed. If hes good, get him.

Dal hasnt taken a key position player with a top 10 pick yet.... Bit scary.

 

[Mofra]

agreed. If hes good, get him.

Dal hasnt taken a key position player with a top 10 pick yet.... Bit scary.

True, but we've traded in or signed a number of KPPs at trade time or close to it (Boyd, Hamling, Shache, Trengove) so the mantra of best available at the draft and trading for needs seems to something we stick to.
We did buck the trend by taking a ruckman in the first round last year that some touted as a top 10 pick and he has taken talls late (including last year).

My worry is we go too tall (I never thought I'd say this as a Bulldog fan) - we're close to the tallest list in the comp and there were times in the last two years that we played one legitimate KPD with mid sizers and smalls to provide a truck-load of counter attack. As teams get smaller in the forwardline will we seriously load up on KPDs?