Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Blue and Silver]

Why?

Why do I think they are resigned?

Because multiple articles and journalists have us "way out in front" and the deal as "essentially done"

Why do I think they are unhappy?

Because the media prefers multiple teams in the hunt for hot young talent as it generates a lot of traffic from various die-hard supporters and ready-made conflict which they can use to write filler pieces while they wait for actual news.

 

[Arr0w]

Never had an issue with Glass; still don't like Rance's disposal but he's way more athletic and capable at contests than Lever. You and I both know that compared to his ability before his ACL that Lever has lost a step in many aspects.


It was based around some tactical goals, and getting the best personnel in to do that. They chose to sacrifice archetypes and strict directives before talent and work rate.

More smaller, faster players able to get to more contests, create pressure & turnovers.
I think there is a correlation.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Whether you are big, small, large, thin. it's just about more contested ball come finals.

 

[Arr0w]

Never had an issue with Glass; still don't like Rance's disposal but he's way more athletic and capable at contests than Lever. You and I both know that compared to his ability before his ACL that Lever has lost a step in many aspects.

Give him time Jim, once he fills out, he will be as good as Glass and Rance

It was based around some tactical goals, and getting the best personnel in to do that. They chose to sacrifice archetypes and strict directives before talent and work rate.

Tigers won the contested ball, has nothing to do with the type of players game day.

 

[Bokonon_]

The only thing we have to worry about is which pick will net us Kennedy & Smith.
If SOS thinks that the Crows #16 gets it done, then work on that and take on another second rounder as against fighting tooth and nail for the #10, only to hand it over to GWS anyway.

It may be trickier than that, but we've already seen what SOS did for a pick ~#15 last year, netting Marchbank & Pickett.
Let's do the same again for Kennedy & Smith. Easy.

Not saying you wont get Smith and Kennedy, but would have thought 10 was reasonable for both. 16 could be a little high for either.
I think a 21yo Kennedy is pretty predictable as a tough defendive inside mid. He presented this year with the physical benefit you'd kind of expect for his second off season. He'll develop and get smarter, and he wont lose his ability to throw his body around contests all day. I dont think he'll suddenly come on the way Kelly, Williams or Wilson has though.

With Devon I think it's all about his knee, and how your club assesses the risk. There are troubling signs. I'm a huge fan of his and he has a high upside IMO.
The history is he went for "clean up" surgery in early 2016 after the club decided not to in the off season which was odd. He did come back better last year but his form has been down again this year. He's again missed games with the same knee. Suggests to me there may not be a simple fix but I really hope there is.

If he is traded to you I will be interested to see if Bolton plays him as an outside mid or small forward. I think he does his best work running the ball forward and hitting up targets rather than as a deep forward.

Any way good luck I have no idea what will happen.

 

[Iamcarlton]

If we want Docherty in the midfield next year, especially as it seems likely he'll take on the captaincy, I'd have no problems getting Saad in. I think Docherty is just better staying down back playing the quarterback style role for us (aka. Hodgey, Goddard but just with Doch being a better bloke). I'd rather develop Williamson more than have Saad.

If Crows land 10 + 27 for Lever I'd assume we'd ask for 27 instead of 34 and could very well get it. Probably bang on the right price in all honest.

Agree and 27 might also get us Tim Kelly as well so imo definately better to go for 16+27 instead of 10 on its own .

 

[KohPhi]

Why do I think they are resigned?

Because multiple articles and journalists have us "way out in front" and the deal as "essentially done"

Why do I think they are unhappy?

Because the media prefers multiple teams in the hunt for hot young talent as it generates a lot of traffic from various die-hard supporters and ready-made conflict which they can use to write filler pieces while they wait for actual news.

Ahh.. all good.
I thought you may have been playing the "media hate Carlton and don't want us to improve " angle

 

[Mr_Plow]

Given the obvious risks highlighted in that post about Devon Smith's knee and the emphasis on Kennedy as a defensive-minded inside midfielder, would have thought pick 16 is sufficient.

Haven't talked them up enough for pick 10.

 

[ferrisb]

Not saying you wont get Smith and Kennedy, but would have thought 10 was reasonable for both. 16 could be a little high for either.
I think a 21yo Kennedy is pretty predictable as a tough defendive inside mid. He presented this year with the physical benefit you'd kind of expect for his second off season. He'll develop and get smarter, and he wont lose his ability to throw his body around contests all day. I dont think he'll suddenly come on the way Kelly, Williams or Wilson has though.

With Devon I think it's all about his knee, and how your club assesses the risk. There are troubling signs. I'm a huge fan of his and he has a high upside IMO.
The history is he went for "clean up" surgery in early 2016 after the club decided not to in the off season which was odd. He did come back better last year but his form has been down again this year. He's again missed games with the same knee. Suggests to me there may not be a simple fix but I really hope there is.

If he is traded to you I will be interested to see if Bolton plays him as an outside mid or small forward. I think he does his best work running the ball forward and hitting up targets rather than as a deep forward.

Any way good luck I have no idea what will happen.

Love your work around here, Bokononandononon....

IMHO 16 is overs for either of them, but unders for both of them. 10 is probably close to fair value, but I'd say we'd be reluctant to do that trade.

As usual, we will try and structure the deal so we can offer you non-pick forms of trade value. Like our salary dumps of the last two years.

Will be interesting to see if/how it can be done in 2017. You clearly have a salary cap problem, but you no longer have an oversized list to cull. I reckon your best bet is to trade decent players on decent coin that will save you $$$ but also get you some trade value, not throw out unwanted players that count as -ve trade value (like Sumner, Lamb, Palmer etc).

Anyway, keen to see what happens. Pretty sure we'll have some oranges and charcoal coming our way this off-season

 

[Toddski]

10 for Kennedy and Smith is WAY overs.

Absolutely no chance of happening mate.

 

[harmesy 37]

2017 1st and Galluci would be the minimum I think - effectively two late first round draft picks.

No thanks, Gibbs is elite. I would want more than pick 5-10 for him. Here are some examples of players picked 5 -10 in the past- Paul ahern pick 7, Mathew scharenberger pick 6, Jono orourke pick 2 etc etc.

One could rate Gibbs as the best player on carlton's list besides Cripps and Murphy, losing your 3rd best player (arguably) is a big gamble

 

[PrinceCharles]

That's an opinion I suppose, actually no its not. Here's one though. How about you **** OFF keyboard expert and stop sniping as you always do and actually have a real opinion.

And the rubbish you spout are real opinions? That's concerning...

 

[ferrisb]

10 for Kennedy and Smith is WAY overs.

Absolutely no chance of happening mate.

I think Kennedy is very good value at ~#15 and Smith #25-40 (depending on his knee). Put that together and its ~#10.

I concede that pick 10 is not the absolute best 'screw GWS over' deal we could manage. But to get two young, talented footballers, one of which (Kennedy) we are reportedly VERY keen on and would fit our midfield needs to a tee? It's probably fair.

I suggest we all take our blue-tinted glasses off. Kennedy was a pick #13, arguably going notably later than expected due to academy bidding (which also followed a Hopper bid). He has done nothing to lose value. To suggest he is worth pick #25 is extracting the urine. To suggest we would get him AND Smith for a 2nd rounder (without some kind of extra favour) is absurd.

As a VERY rough guide. What would we accept for Cuningham and Byrne? A promising young 19/20yo midfielder and an early 20s guy that has shown plenty but has injury concerns? Would we lose those two for one pick in the 16-25 range? I'd say no....

TL;DR - I'm not saying we will pay pick 10 for Smith and Kennedy, I'm saying that's prob fair value. Like Marchbank and Pickett; we paid pick 15 but both sides knew fair value was more than that.

 

[footyfan1978]

Yep, we would be screwing GWS over if we got them both for a second rounder but if we got both for something like that would be doing cartwheels.

 

[agro]

Make no mistake, the reason that GWS let players go like Smith and Kennedy is due to Salary Cap pressure, therefore the club taking them off their hands is doing them the favour, therefore you pay UNDERS not overs.

 

[Jimmae]

Lamb is a hard worker with a good defensive ethic and exceptional game sense to set up teammates.

He is better up the ground delivering it in then kicking at goal.

I agree, but he doesn't get into space to get the footy as much as you'd like. The Swans had hoped to make him into a midfielder, but it never really happened.

That's an opinion I suppose, actually no its not. Here's one though. How about you **** OFF keyboard expert and stop sniping as you always do and actually have a real opinion.

Ow. Those were opinions.

Here they are again for clarification: Saad, M.Shaw, Balic and Langdon are fodder, and probably don't improve us.

Sit down with some footy lists and see what's out there; you were a good read in last year's phantom. Don't discount your ability to spot some value.

Whether you are big, small, large, thin. it's just about more contested ball come finals.

It's more about going when it's your turn, and that's something that I think Boekhorst has happily shown often enough in his career. Explosive pace and precise kicking should be welcomed.

 

[HARKER]

I think Kennedy is very good value at ~#15 and Smith #25-40 (depending on his knee). Put that together and its ~#10.

I concede that pick 10 is not the absolute best 'screw GWS over' deal we could manage. But to get two young, talented footballers, one of which (Kennedy) we are reportedly VERY keen on and would fit our midfield needs to a tee? It's probably fair.

I suggest we all take our blue-tinted glasses off. Kennedy was a pick #13, arguably going notably later than expected due to academy bidding (which also followed a Hopper bid). He has done nothing to lose value. To suggest he is worth pick #25 is extracting the urine. To suggest we would get him AND Smith for a 2nd rounder (without some kind of extra favour) is absurd.

As a VERY rough guide. What would we accept for Cuningham and Byrne? A promising young 19/20yo midfielder and an early 20s guy that has shown plenty but has injury concerns? Would we lose those two for one pick in the 16-25 range? I'd say no....

TL;DR - I'm not saying we will pay pick 10 for Smith and Kennedy, I'm saying that's prob fair value. Like Marchbank and Pickett; we paid pick 15 but both sides knew fair value was more than that.

Beautiful ferris.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...-in-this-years-afl-draft-20151113-gkythc.html

This is where Emma Quayle had rated Kennedy 2 years ago. Go the the slide show.

 

[Benaly28]

10 for Kennedy and Smith is WAY overs.

Absolutely no chance of happening mate.

I think our 2nd rounder next year (23-26) and a swap of other picks might get it done.

 

[footyfan1978]

Make no mistake, the reason that GWS let players go like Smith and Kennedy is due to Salary Cap pressure, therefore the club taking them off their hands is doing them the favour, therefore you pay UNDERS not overs.

We only doing them a favour if no one else into them which would not be the case OR we agreed to take another player we not really into to help relieve salary cap squeeze which is where the Griffen rumour come about a week or two ago but seems unlikely we into doing such a favour now.

 

[Blue Doormat]

I think Kennedy is very good value at ~#15 and Smith #25-40 (depending on his knee). Put that together and its ~#10.

I concede that pick 10 is not the absolute best 'screw GWS over' deal we could manage. But to get two young, talented footballers, one of which (Kennedy) we are reportedly VERY keen on and would fit our midfield needs to a tee? It's probably fair.

I suggest we all take our blue-tinted glasses off. Kennedy was a pick #13, arguably going notably later than expected due to academy bidding (which also followed a Hopper bid). He has done nothing to lose value. To suggest he is worth pick #25 is extracting the urine. To suggest we would get him AND Smith for a 2nd rounder (without some kind of extra favour) is absurd.

As a VERY rough guide. What would we accept for Cuningham and Byrne? A promising young 19/20yo midfielder and an early 20s guy that has shown plenty but has injury concerns? Would we lose those two for one pick in the 16-25 range? I'd say no....

TL;DR - I'm not saying we will pay pick 10 for Smith and Kennedy, I'm saying that's prob fair value. Like Marchbank and Pickett; we paid pick 15 but both sides knew fair value was more than that.

The feeling I get when Ferris posts. Me expecting funny and he's being serious.

 

[La Dispute]

No thanks, Gibbs is elite. I would want more than pick 5-10 for him. Here are some examples of players picked 5 -10 in the past- Paul ahern pick 7, Mathew scharenberger pick 6, Jono orourke pick 2 etc etc.

One could rate Gibbs as the best player on carlton's list besides Cripps and Murphy, losing your 3rd best player (arguably) is a big gamble

He's not elite, aka in the top 5 mids in the competition. Maybe top 10-20. He's a good player, who has been consistent, durable and provided class and leadership in a turbulent period for the club.

As unlikely as he is to go, 2 first round picks in the minimum, albeit Adelaide don't currently have a high draft selection. That's IF he wants to go and IF Adelaide are serious about obtaining him.

Would certainly prefer Smith, Kennedy and a draft choice though.

 

[agro]

We only doing them a favour if no one else into them which would not be the case OR we agreed to take another player we not really into to help relieve salary cap squeeze which is where the Griffen rumour come about a week or two ago but seems unlikely we into doing such a favour now.

If Smith and Kennedy nominate their club (us) then it doesn't matter.

Also as I heard, there might be another player in that deal, not Griffen.

 

[Blue and Silver]

The feeling I get when Ferris posts. Me expecting funny and he's being serious.
View attachment 423513

Dance for me funny man.

Dance

 

[prisoner777]

Back from a very relaxing holidays I'm not up on the recent discussions. Saad seems like a really good buy if we can get him. Explosive pace. We need a seasoned mentor up forward. Doesn't seem to be many in scope? Have I missed someone???

 

[Osc1]

Back from a very relaxing holidays I'm not up on the recent discussions. Saad seems like a really good buy if we can get him. Explosive pace. We need a seasoned mentor up forward. Doesn't seem to be many in scope? Have I missed someone???

Yes. Where did you holiday ?

 

[Heres Waite]

If Smith and Kennedy nominate their club (us) then it doesn't matter.

Also as I heard, there might be another player in that deal, not Griffen.

Scully?