Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[katmanblue]

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[katmanblue]

Halleluiah!

This is what is killing us.

I know we can't replace everyone at once but you just can't keep players of this standard on a list for as long as we have.

I'm an annoying poster on this subject; I apologize but when I see these names being defended for depth or not getting a prolonged stretch of games I dry retch. It's Like a red rag to a bull.

I trust SOS will trade up on some of these players but I've become very impatient however I do understand the reasons why it isn't straight forward.

Note: It's not the players fault, they are just following a passion (I hope) and trying to earn a living.

I think I'm going to watch Moneyball tonight - I've never seen it.

The question becomes are they first in line to be replaced. I think they keep surviving because there always seems to worse players on the list who need replacing.

The next question is who do we replace them with? Using what resources?

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[katmanblue]

Why not? People keep saying that but over the past 2 seasons SOS has made 28 List changes and we still have year to go on the 66 game List rebuild.

Like I stated perviously The Grand Finalists in Sydney & Western Bulldogs made 9 and 7 and these were the top 2 sides. Hawks made 11, Geelong 13 and GWS made 10. All finalists

I have no doubt there is another big cut coming.

When you finish higher up, it means you have more quality players. This means you have more trade currency.

We dont.

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[katmanblue]

You don't use a Ferrari to plow the field.

Maybe we can get Plow a Ferrari. I know a bloke at Zagame....

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[TeeJay Blue]

Don't mind me, I just wanted to be the first guest on the katmanblue page.

 

[katmanblue]

Don't mind me, I just wanted to be the first guest on the katmanblue page.

Lol. Happens when i need to get caught up after midnight. Keep replying to days worth of posts.

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[TheHeatleyStand]

Depends on who we are trading with. for example, Jones would offer more right now to GWS than Weiters would. If Jones helps our trades then we should sell him high ie. Jones and Murphy for Kelly could be win/win as Kelly's spot is covered for two years by Murphy (GWS have plenty of young mids coming through) and Jones would add to their defence.

I think weitering would potentially offer but at the moment looks like he has a very low ceiling
So many flaws in his game.
Somebody would see a number 1 pick in him and good luck to them
Jones has definitely more versatility going forward..

 

[rog1995]

If Gibbs and Levi do leave this year who replaces them? We will struggle to win a game next year and I can't see how this helps our young team. Do we just take our picks which most likely will be three in the top 25 to the draft and load up again on kids?

 

[rog1995]

Just some things I've been kicking around for a while. Go and get yourself a cup of coffee before reading on. You have been warned.

FWIW I think it's certainly possible to move on 10-11 players this year quite comfortably. Just be aware that not all of them will be ones that you'll necessarily want moved on, but sometimes things need to be orchestrated for the greater good. The post covers a range of issues from questions regarding some of our Assistant Coaches, to Trades, Drafting, Trading of Future Picks & Potential Leadership Changes.

Coaching.

1. I'd really like the club to review the positions of the John Barker (Stoppages Coach), Tim Clarke (Midfield Coach), Matthew Capuano (Development/Ruck Coach), Andrew Walker (Development Coach) and also Neil Craig (Director of Coaching, Performance & Development) and have a good hard look if we're making the best uses of our resources.
2. We currently have 3 midfield coaches in Barker, Clarke & Capuano. How many midfield coaches do we realistically need??? Can Barker's role (Midfield) be combined with Clarke's (stoppages), or can Capuano's role (Ruck) be combined with Clarke's (Stoppages)??? Would a reshuffle free up resources and funds to be used elsewhere or in another capacity???
3. We currently have 3 Development Coaches in Neil Craig (Director of Coaching, Development & Performance), Matthew Capuano (Development/Ruck Coach) and Andrew Walker (Development Coach). Once again, do we really need 3 development coaches??? Can Capuano's role and Walker's role be combined??? Can we redistribute some resources from here to be used elsewhere or used to create a new position???
4. Neil Craig is notable for his contacts in elite sports training and in particular the AIS, but is his skill-set up to date and what cutting edge performance programs has he really introduced at the Blues, if any??? Granted the players can now run out a game rather than fall in a collective heap after quarter time like they did under the Malthouse regime, but blind Freddy could see that was an issue that needed to be addressed. Jack Silvagni came to the club with excellent disposal by foot, but is now only average at best. Do the weight programs influence the position of the ball drop with having wider shoulders etc, or does their core strength training through the thighs, arse, lower back and abdominals effect how their leg swings through the ball with regards to pulling left, right, or affecting their follow through??? Do they keep video logs of players kicking actions (like a golfer's swing) to see how things may, or may not, have changed or altered over time from when they first arrived at the club??? How can those core & weight development programs be refined so as to minimise the effect of altering, or used to improve, a player's kicking or ball-dropping action??? These are the things that I expect a cutting edge sports scientist to be on top of so as to give our players an edge over the competition, not wacko bullshit such as player X can only kick the ball 50 times a week so that he may reduce his chances of suffering stress fractures of the foot by 0.0001%. All I'm asking is are we getting the maximum benefit out of this area of our coaching division??? Is it worth sounding out a couple of people such as Roger Rasheed or Scott Burns???
5. One thing I'd really like to see introduced is a full-time Skills Coach and I'm not just talking for kicking, handballing, marking, etc, but things such as the forgotten art of midfield craft. You know, things like providing blocks, bumps, shepherds, taking an opponents run, sticking a tackle, running both ways, etc. We're absolutely nowhere with this area of the game and never have been, but most clubs are shithouse in this area, including GWS and Geelong. Surprisingly, Kerridge is one of the few on our list you're likely to see some of these things from, but our leaders such as Murphy, Gibbs & Ed have absolutely NFI when it comes to this aspect of play. The only club that really excels in this aspect of play on an entire team level is Hawthorn and I think someone such as Hodge would be perfect for it if coaching is what he wants to do.
6. One of the people I'd like the club to consider as a candidate for the Midfield Coach or Development Coach is Peter Sumich. I was incredibly impressed how he managed to take an group of kids from all over WA and meld them into a cohesive unit that won 3 of their 4 games at this years U18 Championships. His ability to be able to get a bunch of 17 & 18 year old kids to successfully execute a fairly complex game plan to take down a much more highly-fancied Vic Country outfit was outstanding. If the club is serious about having the best possible people to develop our young talent then Sumich should be right at the top of our list.
7. I should point out that I'm not advocating the removal, retention or addition of any, or all, of the afore-mentioned coaches. What I am saying is that after 2 years lets have look and see as to whether we are surrounding Bolton, Fraser and SOS with the best resources possible to achieve their stated aims and that we are extracting the maximum benefit for the expenditure we are putting into those resources.

Player Acquisition

Carlton Players Drafted Since In 2015/16

• Weitering - 18 Games
• C.Curnow - 17 Games
• J.Silvagni - 17 Games
• SPS - 16 Games
• Fisher - 13 Games
• Williamson - 12 Games
• Macreadie - 8 Games
• Cuningham - 8 Games
• McKay - 2 Games
• Polson - 1 Game
• Kerr - 0 Games

TOTAL GAMES 2017 - 112 GAMES

GWS/Ex-GWS Players Traded Or On Our Potential Shopping List.

• Kelly* - 18 Games
• Plowman - 18 Games
• Marchbank - 15 Games
• Smith* - 13 Games
• Lamb - 7 Games
• Hopper* - 6 Games
• Sumner - 4 Games
• Palmer - 1 Game
• Phillips - 1 Game
• Jaksch - 0 Games

TOTAL GAMES 2017 - 83 GAMES* 64 GAMES (if I only include Kelly)

So what this tells me is that:

1. The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence.
2. When your draft picks afford you the opportunity to acquire the créme de la créme of talent in the draft pool then you take it.
3. People on this board seriously continue to underestimate SOS's ability to draft talent and for Bolton to fast track it.
4. With the exception of Hopper, all the GWS/ex-GWX players are in their 3rd or later season while the Blue's draftees are 1st or 2nd year players.
5. I do acknowledge that 12 Kelly games are better than 12 SPS games at this stage, but for how long as that won't always be the case.
6. Peripheral players at GWS will generally only become peripheral players elsewhere and that's not just based upon the ones that have come to us.
7. Based on this sliver of info I'm more than comfortable with SOS to continue going back to the draft and trading for more picks.
8. Bolton, SOS & Trigg have done what they said they'd do, which is go to the draft and invest in the future.
9. We'll probably go into this years draft (before trading) with Picks 2, 38, 56, 74, 92.

Potential Trades:

SOS will need to be both creative and aggressive to acquire half a dozen useful draft picks. Here's a couple of left-field ones I've come up with as well as a couple of more conservative ones.

Casboult FA (Unlikely left-field scenario):

1. May, and I emphasise the word "may", get band 3 compo, but it's just as likely to end up as band 4 - end of 2nd Round.
2. Casboult & his manager have indicated that they'd like to explore the potential of FA rather than negotiate a contract at this stage.
3. SOS could get proactive and "assist" Casboult by finding out how much he wants over what period and try to "broker" a deal for him with another club.
4. Pies have a midfield but no spine, so why not bundle Casboult up with Jones and see if we can pry their 1st Round Pick (Pick 6) away from them. I'd also be looking to swap their 3rd Round Pick for our 4th Rounder as part of this deal. I must admit I'm somewhat reluctant to trade Jones. Probably isn't going to be costing more than $350k/yr, is durable and loves the club, but there's no guarantee he'll produce the same good form next year.
5. If Eddie & Bucks survive the review they'll be under pressure to produce results and a KPF & KPD for under a combined $800k-$900k/year buys them 3-4 years to develop their own.
6. Out Casboult, Jones & Pick 56. In Picks 6 & 42. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 38, 42, 74, 92.

Gibbs Trade:

1. Crows 1st Round Pick is likely to be in the range of Pick 16-18, so I'll say it's 17.
2. The problem with that is that after the matching of academy bids, father-son bids and FA compensation picks, Pick 17 has the potential to blow out to Pick 23 and their 2nd Round Pick could become Pick 42-43. Would rather keep Gibbs than trade him effectively for Picks 23 & 42.
3. I would trade Gibbs for the Crows 1st Rounder and a player I could on-trade such as McGovern though.
4. Crows are yet to re-sign McGovern (too busy saving for Gibbs) so there could be something in that.
5. Crows have a borderline 1st Round Father-Son selection (Jackson Edwards) available to them so trading out their 1st Pick could be advantageous to them.
6. Bundle McGovern up with Boekhorst for West Coast's 1st Rounder, Pick 10.
7. Out Gibbs & Boehorst. In Picks 10 & 17. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 10, 17, 38, 42, 74, 92.

White Trade:

1. The Hawks owe us and it's time to call in "that favour".
2. Simon White & Picks 74 & 92 to the Hawks for Pick 35 (Cats 2nd Rounder, via GWS, via Carlton....errr, I think that's right) to the Blues.
3. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 10, 17, 35, 38, 42.

Hopper Trade:

1. At a time where we're trying to build depth on a list that still contains a lot of junk, I really struggle parting with two 1st Round Picks for any player, no matter how good he is, especially given our stage of development. For this reason I've decided to target Hopper.
2. I really had trouble deciding what pick to use here because I'd also like to upgrade 1 of our 3rd Round Picks.
3. Picks 10 & 42 to the Giants for Hopper & Pick 23 (Pies 2nd Rounder) to the Blues.
4. While this trade values Hopper at approximately Pick 18, it does give GWS access to top a 10 Pick which I think they'd jump at while allowing us to upgrade Pick 42 to Pick 23.
5. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 17, 23, 35, 38.

Trade Summary:

1. While I acknowledge that the Casboult trade us somewhat left-field and somewhat optimistic, SOS has shown himself to amazingly resourceful. Extracting a 1st Round Pick for Tuohy and a 2nd Round Pick for Bell are examples.
2. We now have three 1st Round Picks, two 2nd Round Picks, an early 3rd Round Pick & Hopper.
3. I've traded Gibbs, Casboult, Jones, White, Boekhorst and Picks 56, 74 & 92 to get them though.
4. My only concern is that I've given away 5 mature bodies and only brought 1 back in. SOS may be able to acquire a couple of DFAs to partially offset that.
5. Please note that some draft picks may have changed since I started on this post due team movement on the ladder.

National Draft:

I've tried to acquire players that:

• Address areas in which we're deficient. In particular give the midfield a bloody good overhaul.
• Demonstrated they can put together consistent performances.
• Have good disposal by hand and foot.
• Already have a defensive aspect to their game.
• Already possess a decent endurance base.
• Can hunt their own ball.
• Add a bit of overall size, power, speed & class to the team as a whole.
• Have a realistic chance of being available where I've selected them.

Pick 2 - Adam Cerra - Inside Mid 186cm 85kg Eastern Ranges.
I'm still yet to see, hear or read anything from anyone to convince me that there is a better, or more complete midfielder, in this years draft crop than Adam Cerra. Inside mids that can spread from the contest to become involved in chains of play and kick goals are worth their weight in gold. In a BOG performance against Gippsland Power, Cerra amassed 24 disposals and booted 3 goals. His clearance work inside the stoppages is superb and his vision to find and then surgically pick out the best option by hand or foot is sublime. Already boasts a defensive side to his game and plays with a great team ethos doing all the little things such as laying tackles, bumps, blocks and shepherds all while bringing his team mates into the game. Has reasonable pace without being lightning, doesn't have any endurance issues and is quite a solid mark overhead without being spectacular. Consistency, hard-working, team-oriented and classy are all descriptions that come to mind when I think of Cerra and once he fills out with a couple of preseasons I'd expect him to become a genuine midfield powerhouse.

Pick 6 - Andrew Brayshaw - Inside Mid 183cm 80kg Sandringham Dragons.
As an inside mid who can find the ball at stoppages and provide quality disposal under pressure, I rate Brayshaw just behind Cerra. Very clean hands when gathering the ball inside and then in the twinkling of an eye with a couple of quicks steps he's transitioned to the outside and into space without anyone ever laying glove on him. Its at this point where he either accelerates away from the contest or cannily assesses his options. Is a really nice right foot kick, that more often than not, find their intended target even over 50m. His excellent work ethic, hard-running and strong endurance allow him to acquire multiple possessions in chains of play and get from contest to contest with ease. Has a happy knack of finding himself in oodles of space up the corridor of the ground where he then surges downfield with ball in hand. I also considered Higgins here, but where Brayshaw wins out is that he takes so much territory off the opposition by moving the ball forwards rather than laterally or backwards. I know many of the U18 boffins have Brayshaw somewhere in the early 20s of their Power Rankings, but I'd expect him to come into top 10 calculations as we approach draft time. I don't see too many weaknesses in Brayshaw's game and his ability to transition from inside to outside is extraordinary. Would love to have him at the Blues.

Pick 17 - James Worpel - Inside Mid 185cm 84kg Geelong Falcons.
Clearance specialist with a hard edge, good agility and acceleration which allow him find space in the contest where there is none. He's as tough, tenacious and fearless as a honey badger where no quarter is ever asked for or given, and his consistent performances over 4 matches earned him Vic Country's MVP award. He's already strong enough to stand up in tackles and Worpel will only become more powerful in this department as he improves his core strength further in an elite AFL environment. His endurance allows him to cover an enormous amount of territory during the course of a game and his work ethic in this regard cannot be questioned. Worpel was the leading tackler in this years Carnival and when he nails an opponent the he takes them to ground. The biggest knock on Worpel has been his kicking, but I watched 3 of Vic Country's games live and really had trouble faulting it off either foot tbh. Last year he seemed to "place" the ball on his foot when kicking, nowhere near to the same extent as Jordan Gallucci or Elliott Himmelberg, but that has been completely removed from his kicking action now. My only real criticism of Worpel is that he doesn't make enough use of the team mates around him and can try to do it all by himself on occasions and that's nothing a good bit of coaching won't correct. It's been a long time since we've had a quality midfielder who made the opposition look over their shoulder when they hear footsteps. Go get him SOS.

Pick 23 - Brayden Crossley - Ruck 198cm 105kg Labrador Tigers/GCS Academy
An absolute beast of a kid who had an outstanding Carnival, which earned him the Allies MVP in this series. While he averaged 28HO & 15 disposals, it was the 5 clearances per game that really made him stand out, which was the 4th most of any player in this years Carnival. His follow-up work from aerial contests is excellent and he's wonderfully clean off the deck for someone his size. His disposal by hand or foot is sound without being anything special and if he manages to get a shot at goal while resting up forward he certainly "knows where they are". Moves around the ground well enough to get where he needs to be, but a couple preseasons to slightly adjust his body shape and further his endurance levels will only see him get stronger in this department. Having said that, unlike most junior rucks, you're not going to have to wait 3-5 years for him to fill out. Some may be surprised to see me take him this early, but taking him later will almost certainly see Gold Coast match the bid.....and we desperately need a quality developing ruck.

Pick 35 - Harrison Petty - Key Defender 194cm 81kg Norwood.
Petty was one of the surprise packets of this years U18 Championships and his consistency throughout the Carnival saw him rewarded with the SA MVP. His contested and intercept marking is excellent and his decision-making is very sound knowing exactly when to go for those marks or affect the spoil. Accumulates quite a lot of the ball for a KPD and he uses it quite well by hand or foot. Another KPD you say??? Well I've traded Jones, I've traded White, it's somewhat debatable we'll see Rowe beyond next season and ASOS is proving to be somewhat injury-prone and isn't really a medium/longterm solution. So it does make sense to replenish the ranks. Besides, we need another Harry. Nevertheless the question remains, why are all Harrys KPPs???

Pick 38 - Andrew McPherson - Medium Defender/Outside Mid 186cm 78kg Woodville-West Torrens.
Hard running defender with a nice balance of attack and defence who uses the ball well by hand or foot and already has a pretty good endurance base. Accumulates plenty of the ball across half back or on a wing all while managing to keep his opponent under control. Represented SA in the U18 Champs last year as a 17yo, but missed this years Carnival with a quad strain. Played quite well in the Academy game against the Northern Blues where he had 13 disposals and 4 tackles against a forward line that boasted the likes of McKay, Jones & Jaksch. Went back to the SANFL reserves the following week where he played a blinder with 27 possessions and 6 rebound 50s. If you like the balance of run, rebound and defence that Wilson and Williams provide for GWS then you'll also like what McPherson potentially offers.

Rookie Pick 2 - Ethan Penrith - Small Defender 179cm 76kg Northern Knights/Next Gen Academy
This is where you take Penrith, if at all. Small, but solidly built defender with lightning speed and good disposal by foot over short to medium distances. Short handballs are generally to "first available" without much thought, which often sells the receiver into trouble. As you would expect from someone in the back half, the defensive side of his game is fine, but that's where it sort of starts and stops for Penrith as there is no real proactive side to his game. He's not a "one touch" player and fumbles a lot, which tends to increase the pressure he finds himself under. Unless he's awarded a free kick through his excellent tackling, Penrith is unlikely to acquire much in the way of contested possessions and from my observations will actively seek to avoid running in straight lines when it's his turn to go. For these reasons I think Penrith will find it too intimidating at both AFL & VFL level against mature bodies and once opposition sides find a weakness in a player they'll go out of their way to exploit it.

Trading of Future Picks.

1. I'm really struggling to work out why one would do this. I've just drafted 6 players, traded another young one in Hopper, SOS will get another couple of rookies and possibly a DFA or two, which will result in another 10 list changes....minimum. All done without dipping into next years picks. While I can see Charlie, Weitering, SOSOS, McKay and Cuningham beginning to genuinely influence games in the second half of next year I still can't see us realistically finishing higher than 12th, especially with having traded out Gibbs, Casboult, Jones and to a lesser extent, White.
2. I watched 5 of this years U18 Champs games live and another one televised. Based upon the quantity and quality of underage players, which included the likes of Izak Rankine, Jack Lukosius, Sam Walsh, Bailey Williams, Jye Caldwell, Rhylee West, Ben King, Max King, Jarrod Fazioli, Ian Hill, Tarryn Thomas & Nicholas Blakey there is absolutely no guarantee that Ben Silvagni will be a top 6 pick in next years draft. None. Will he go 1st Round??? Definitely, but top 10??? I wouldn't bet on it.
3. Imagine if you could snare one of the King brothers, Lukosius, Walsh, Hill or Rankine AND Ben Silvagni. Changes things a lot doesn't it.....but it can never happen if we trade away our future as so many here seem keen to do.
4. At the end of the 2017 trade & draft periods, even if SOS is able to achieve everything that I've proposed here we will have only drafted 15 players of AFL quality and traded another 5. With the impending retirements of Simpson, Rowe & Murphy over the next 2 years, that's still nowhere near enough.
5. Our aim should be to build a list strong enough that the likes of SOSOS & Plowman become depth and others will request trades to seek opportunities elsewhere as they struggle to break into the best 22. Once we reach this level then the list begins to self-generate, a little like the GWS list does, but SOS needs to keep doing exactly what he's been doing for another 3-5 years yet for that to happen.

Leadership.

• If the club is serious that this is a new era then there needs to be an overhaul of the leadership group. That means no Simpson, no Murphy, no Rowe & no Armfield.
• From Pagan, to Ratten, to Malthouse, to Barker and finally Bolton there have been two constants in that leadership group, Murphy & Gibbs. To a some extent I believe people become products of their environment so it's difficult to lay the blame for that purely at the feet of Murphy and Gibbs. The club has much to answer for in that regard, but that doesn't change my opinion that they're average leaders at best.
• It's quite noticeable that Cripps does the organising and issues the instructions at the start of quarters and around the stoppages. His professionalism with regards to his preparation, training, how he presents for preseason and how he's able to perform under adversity make him a standout. For me, in many ways, Cripps is already the Captain in a practical and spiritual sense, so I think it's time those attributes are recognised in an official capacity.
• At this stage I'm happy for the leadership group to be a small one consisting of maybe Cripps, Kreuzer & Docherty. I'm not adverse to expanding that to include Weitering or SPS, but let them become established to a point where their football does a fair bit of their talking for them before subjecting them to more responsibility. Whether that takes 1, 2 or more years doesn't really matter. There's no rush.

Conclusion.

That's me done guys. I had a go.

Jesus.That's the longest post I've ever seen.

 

[HBF]

I'm not giving up on Pickett I reckon he'll be best 22, he has pace and skills, just needs confidence.

I also think people need to look back at previous rebuilds of hawks & dogs etc and realize it can turn quickly, hawks 4 wins 2004 5 wins 2005 & flag 2008, dogs 5 wins 2012 flag 2016 fact!

Pickett to me is the wildcard for us next season. Has all the talent, just needs a full preseason and play as much footy as he can.

 

[HBF]

I don't think we would be a lock for an end of first round priority pick and I hope we don't apply for one. We chose our path, it was always going to make things a bit harder in the short term. I don't like the handout mentality.

Why not apply for one.
All the AFL can say is no.

 

[HBF]

Eh, it wasn't much but I thought worth posting.

Was more interested in the "We wont be Darcy Moore-ing our young KPFs when Levi goes" commentary.

They didn't happen to mention any interest in Redpath?

 

[The Smoking Gun]

You don't want Liam hickmott???

I've never seen him play TooBlue14, but I have seen all the others. Sure SOS will be monitoring him.

 

[Arr0w]

Just some things I've been kicking around for a while. Go and get yourself a cup of coffee before reading on. You have been warned.

FWIW I think it's certainly possible to move on 10-11 players this year quite comfortably. Just be aware that not all of them will be ones that you'll necessarily want moved on, but sometimes things need to be orchestrated for the greater good. The post covers a range of issues from questions regarding some of our Assistant Coaches, to Trades, Drafting, Trading of Future Picks & Potential Leadership Changes.

Coaching.

1. I'd really like the club to review the positions of the John Barker (Stoppages Coach), Tim Clarke (Midfield Coach), Matthew Capuano (Development/Ruck Coach), Andrew Walker (Development Coach) and also Neil Craig (Director of Coaching, Performance & Development) and have a good hard look if we're making the best uses of our resources.
2. We currently have 3 midfield coaches in Barker, Clarke & Capuano. How many midfield coaches do we realistically need??? Can Barker's role (Midfield) be combined with Clarke's (stoppages), or can Capuano's role (Ruck) be combined with Clarke's (Stoppages)??? Would a reshuffle free up resources and funds to be used elsewhere or in another capacity???
3. We currently have 3 Development Coaches in Neil Craig (Director of Coaching, Development & Performance), Matthew Capuano (Development/Ruck Coach) and Andrew Walker (Development Coach). Once again, do we really need 3 development coaches??? Can Capuano's role and Walker's role be combined??? Can we redistribute some resources from here to be used elsewhere or used to create a new position???
4. Neil Craig is notable for his contacts in elite sports training and in particular the AIS, but is his skill-set up to date and what cutting edge performance programs has he really introduced at the Blues, if any??? Granted the players can now run out a game rather than fall in a collective heap after quarter time like they did under the Malthouse regime, but blind Freddy could see that was an issue that needed to be addressed. Jack Silvagni came to the club with excellent disposal by foot, but is now only average at best. Do the weight programs influence the position of the ball drop with having wider shoulders etc, or does their core strength training through the thighs, arse, lower back and abdominals effect how their leg swings through the ball with regards to pulling left, right, or affecting their follow through??? Do they keep video logs of players kicking actions (like a golfer's swing) to see how things may, or may not, have changed or altered over time from when they first arrived at the club??? How can those core & weight development programs be refined so as to minimise the effect of altering, or used to improve, a player's kicking or ball-dropping action??? These are the things that I expect a cutting edge sports scientist to be on top of so as to give our players an edge over the competition, not wacko bullshit such as player X can only kick the ball 50 times a week so that he may reduce his chances of suffering stress fractures of the foot by 0.0001%. All I'm asking is are we getting the maximum benefit out of this area of our coaching division??? Is it worth sounding out a couple of people such as Roger Rasheed or Scott Burns???
5. One thing I'd really like to see introduced is a full-time Skills Coach and I'm not just talking for kicking, handballing, marking, etc, but things such as the forgotten art of midfield craft. You know, things like providing blocks, bumps, shepherds, taking an opponents run, sticking a tackle, running both ways, etc. We're absolutely nowhere with this area of the game and never have been, but most clubs are shithouse in this area, including GWS and Geelong. Surprisingly, Kerridge is one of the few on our list you're likely to see some of these things from, but our leaders such as Murphy, Gibbs & Ed have absolutely NFI when it comes to this aspect of play. The only club that really excels in this aspect of play on an entire team level is Hawthorn and I think someone such as Hodge would be perfect for it if coaching is what he wants to do.
6. One of the people I'd like the club to consider as a candidate for the Midfield Coach or Development Coach is Peter Sumich. I was incredibly impressed how he managed to take an group of kids from all over WA and meld them into a cohesive unit that won 3 of their 4 games at this years U18 Championships. His ability to be able to get a bunch of 17 & 18 year old kids to successfully execute a fairly complex game plan to take down a much more highly-fancied Vic Country outfit was outstanding. If the club is serious about having the best possible people to develop our young talent then Sumich should be right at the top of our list.
7. I should point out that I'm not advocating the removal, retention or addition of any, or all, of the afore-mentioned coaches. What I am saying is that after 2 years lets have look and see as to whether we are surrounding Bolton, Fraser and SOS with the best resources possible to achieve their stated aims and that we are extracting the maximum benefit for the expenditure we are putting into those resources.

Player Acquisition

Carlton Players Drafted Since In 2015/16

• Weitering - 18 Games
• C.Curnow - 17 Games
• J.Silvagni - 17 Games
• SPS - 16 Games
• Fisher - 13 Games
• Williamson - 12 Games
• Macreadie - 8 Games
• Cuningham - 8 Games
• McKay - 2 Games
• Polson - 1 Game
• Kerr - 0 Games

TOTAL GAMES 2017 - 112 GAMES

GWS/Ex-GWS Players Traded Or On Our Potential Shopping List.

• Kelly* - 18 Games
• Plowman - 18 Games
• Marchbank - 15 Games
• Smith* - 13 Games
• Lamb - 7 Games
• Hopper* - 6 Games
• Sumner - 4 Games
• Palmer - 1 Game
• Phillips - 1 Game
• Jaksch - 0 Games

TOTAL GAMES 2017 - 83 GAMES* 64 GAMES (if I only include Kelly)

So what this tells me is that:

1. The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence.
2. When your draft picks afford you the opportunity to acquire the créme de la créme of talent in the draft pool then you take it.
3. People on this board seriously continue to underestimate SOS's ability to draft talent and for Bolton to fast track it.
4. With the exception of Hopper, all the GWS/ex-GWX players are in their 3rd or later season while the Blue's draftees are 1st or 2nd year players.
5. I do acknowledge that 12 Kelly games are better than 12 SPS games at this stage, but for how long as that won't always be the case.
6. Peripheral players at GWS will generally only become peripheral players elsewhere and that's not just based upon the ones that have come to us.
7. Based on this sliver of info I'm more than comfortable with SOS to continue going back to the draft and trading for more picks.
8. Bolton, SOS & Trigg have done what they said they'd do, which is go to the draft and invest in the future.
9. We'll probably go into this years draft (before trading) with Picks 2, 38, 56, 74, 92.

Potential Trades:

SOS will need to be both creative and aggressive to acquire half a dozen useful draft picks. Here's a couple of left-field ones I've come up with as well as a couple of more conservative ones.

Casboult FA (Unlikely left-field scenario):

1. May, and I emphasise the word "may", get band 3 compo, but it's just as likely to end up as band 4 - end of 2nd Round.
2. Casboult & his manager have indicated that they'd like to explore the potential of FA rather than negotiate a contract at this stage.
3. SOS could get proactive and "assist" Casboult by finding out how much he wants over what period and try to "broker" a deal for him with another club.
4. Pies have a midfield but no spine, so why not bundle Casboult up with Jones and see if we can pry their 1st Round Pick (Pick 6) away from them. I'd also be looking to swap their 3rd Round Pick for our 4th Rounder as part of this deal. I must admit I'm somewhat reluctant to trade Jones. Probably isn't going to be costing more than $350k/yr, is durable and loves the club, but there's no guarantee he'll produce the same good form next year.
5. If Eddie & Bucks survive the review they'll be under pressure to produce results and a KPF & KPD for under a combined $800k-$900k/year buys them 3-4 years to develop their own.
6. Out Casboult, Jones & Pick 56. In Picks 6 & 42. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 38, 42, 74, 92.

Gibbs Trade:

1. Crows 1st Round Pick is likely to be in the range of Pick 16-18, so I'll say it's 17.
2. The problem with that is that after the matching of academy bids, father-son bids and FA compensation picks, Pick 17 has the potential to blow out to Pick 23 and their 2nd Round Pick could become Pick 42-43. Would rather keep Gibbs than trade him effectively for Picks 23 & 42.
3. I would trade Gibbs for the Crows 1st Rounder and a player I could on-trade such as McGovern though.
4. Crows are yet to re-sign McGovern (too busy saving for Gibbs) so there could be something in that.
5. Crows have a borderline 1st Round Father-Son selection (Jackson Edwards) available to them so trading out their 1st Pick could be advantageous to them.
6. Bundle McGovern up with Boekhorst for West Coast's 1st Rounder, Pick 10.
7. Out Gibbs & Boehorst. In Picks 10 & 17. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 10, 17, 38, 42, 74, 92.

White Trade:

1. The Hawks owe us and it's time to call in "that favour".
2. Simon White & Picks 74 & 92 to the Hawks for Pick 35 (Cats 2nd Rounder, via GWS, via Carlton....errr, I think that's right) to the Blues.
3. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 10, 17, 35, 38, 42.

Hopper Trade:

1. At a time where we're trying to build depth on a list that still contains a lot of junk, I really struggle parting with two 1st Round Picks for any player, no matter how good he is, especially given our stage of development. For this reason I've decided to target Hopper.
2. I really had trouble deciding what pick to use here because I'd also like to upgrade 1 of our 3rd Round Picks.
3. Picks 10 & 42 to the Giants for Hopper & Pick 23 (Pies 2nd Rounder) to the Blues.
4. While this trade values Hopper at approximately Pick 18, it does give GWS access to top a 10 Pick which I think they'd jump at while allowing us to upgrade Pick 42 to Pick 23.
5. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 17, 23, 35, 38.

Trade Summary:

1. While I acknowledge that the Casboult trade us somewhat left-field and somewhat optimistic, SOS has shown himself to amazingly resourceful. Extracting a 1st Round Pick for Tuohy and a 2nd Round Pick for Bell are examples.
2. We now have three 1st Round Picks, two 2nd Round Picks, an early 3rd Round Pick & Hopper.
3. I've traded Gibbs, Casboult, Jones, White, Boekhorst and Picks 56, 74 & 92 to get them though.
4. My only concern is that I've given away 5 mature bodies and only brought 1 back in. SOS may be able to acquire a couple of DFAs to partially offset that.
5. Please note that some draft picks may have changed since I started on this post due team movement on the ladder.

National Draft:

I've tried to acquire players that:

• Address areas in which we're deficient. In particular give the midfield a bloody good overhaul.
• Demonstrated they can put together consistent performances.
• Have good disposal by hand and foot.
• Already have a defensive aspect to their game.
• Already possess a decent endurance base.
• Can hunt their own ball.
• Add a bit of overall size, power, speed & class to the team as a whole.
• Have a realistic chance of being available where I've selected them.

Pick 2 - Adam Cerra - Inside Mid 186cm 85kg Eastern Ranges.
I'm still yet to see, hear or read anything from anyone to convince me that there is a better, or more complete midfielder, in this years draft crop than Adam Cerra. Inside mids that can spread from the contest to become involved in chains of play and kick goals are worth their weight in gold. In a BOG performance against Gippsland Power, Cerra amassed 24 disposals and booted 3 goals. His clearance work inside the stoppages is superb and his vision to find and then surgically pick out the best option by hand or foot is sublime. Already boasts a defensive side to his game and plays with a great team ethos doing all the little things such as laying tackles, bumps, blocks and shepherds all while bringing his team mates into the game. Has reasonable pace without being lightning, doesn't have any endurance issues and is quite a solid mark overhead without being spectacular. Consistency, hard-working, team-oriented and classy are all descriptions that come to mind when I think of Cerra and once he fills out with a couple of preseasons I'd expect him to become a genuine midfield powerhouse.

Pick 6 - Andrew Brayshaw - Inside Mid 183cm 80kg Sandringham Dragons.
As an inside mid who can find the ball at stoppages and provide quality disposal under pressure, I rate Brayshaw just behind Cerra. Very clean hands when gathering the ball inside and then in the twinkling of an eye with a couple of quicks steps he's transitioned to the outside and into space without anyone ever laying glove on him. Its at this point where he either accelerates away from the contest or cannily assesses his options. Is a really nice right foot kick, that more often than not, find their intended target even over 50m. His excellent work ethic, hard-running and strong endurance allow him to acquire multiple possessions in chains of play and get from contest to contest with ease. Has a happy knack of finding himself in oodles of space up the corridor of the ground where he then surges downfield with ball in hand. I also considered Higgins here, but where Brayshaw wins out is that he takes so much territory off the opposition by moving the ball forwards rather than laterally or backwards. I know many of the U18 boffins have Brayshaw somewhere in the early 20s of their Power Rankings, but I'd expect him to come into top 10 calculations as we approach draft time. I don't see too many weaknesses in Brayshaw's game and his ability to transition from inside to outside is extraordinary. Would love to have him at the Blues.

Pick 17 - James Worpel - Inside Mid 185cm 84kg Geelong Falcons.
Clearance specialist with a hard edge, good agility and acceleration which allow him find space in the contest where there is none. He's as tough, tenacious and fearless as a honey badger where no quarter is ever asked for or given, and his consistent performances over 4 matches earned him Vic Country's MVP award. He's already strong enough to stand up in tackles and Worpel will only become more powerful in this department as he improves his core strength further in an elite AFL environment. His endurance allows him to cover an enormous amount of territory during the course of a game and his work ethic in this regard cannot be questioned. Worpel was the leading tackler in this years Carnival and when he nails an opponent the he takes them to ground. The biggest knock on Worpel has been his kicking, but I watched 3 of Vic Country's games live and really had trouble faulting it off either foot tbh. Last year he seemed to "place" the ball on his foot when kicking, nowhere near to the same extent as Jordan Gallucci or Elliott Himmelberg, but that has been completely removed from his kicking action now. My only real criticism of Worpel is that he doesn't make enough use of the team mates around him and can try to do it all by himself on occasions and that's nothing a good bit of coaching won't correct. It's been a long time since we've had a quality midfielder who made the opposition look over their shoulder when they hear footsteps. Go get him SOS.

Pick 23 - Brayden Crossley - Ruck 198cm 105kg Labrador Tigers/GCS Academy
An absolute beast of a kid who had an outstanding Carnival, which earned him the Allies MVP in this series. While he averaged 28HO & 15 disposals, it was the 5 clearances per game that really made him stand out, which was the 4th most of any player in this years Carnival. His follow-up work from aerial contests is excellent and he's wonderfully clean off the deck for someone his size. His disposal by hand or foot is sound without being anything special and if he manages to get a shot at goal while resting up forward he certainly "knows where they are". Moves around the ground well enough to get where he needs to be, but a couple preseasons to slightly adjust his body shape and further his endurance levels will only see him get stronger in this department. Having said that, unlike most junior rucks, you're not going to have to wait 3-5 years for him to fill out. Some may be surprised to see me take him this early, but taking him later will almost certainly see Gold Coast match the bid.....and we desperately need a quality developing ruck.

Pick 35 - Harrison Petty - Key Defender 194cm 81kg Norwood.
Petty was one of the surprise packets of this years U18 Championships and his consistency throughout the Carnival saw him rewarded with the SA MVP. His contested and intercept marking is excellent and his decision-making is very sound knowing exactly when to go for those marks or affect the spoil. Accumulates quite a lot of the ball for a KPD and he uses it quite well by hand or foot. Another KPD you say??? Well I've traded Jones, I've traded White, it's somewhat debatable we'll see Rowe beyond next season and ASOS is proving to be somewhat injury-prone and isn't really a medium/longterm solution. So it does make sense to replenish the ranks. Besides, we need another Harry. Nevertheless the question remains, why are all Harrys KPPs???

Pick 38 - Andrew McPherson - Medium Defender/Outside Mid 186cm 78kg Woodville-West Torrens.
Hard running defender with a nice balance of attack and defence who uses the ball well by hand or foot and already has a pretty good endurance base. Accumulates plenty of the ball across half back or on a wing all while managing to keep his opponent under control. Represented SA in the U18 Champs last year as a 17yo, but missed this years Carnival with a quad strain. Played quite well in the Academy game against the Northern Blues where he had 13 disposals and 4 tackles against a forward line that boasted the likes of McKay, Jones & Jaksch. Went back to the SANFL reserves the following week where he played a blinder with 27 possessions and 6 rebound 50s. If you like the balance of run, rebound and defence that Wilson and Williams provide for GWS then you'll also like what McPherson potentially offers.

Rookie Pick 2 - Ethan Penrith - Small Defender 179cm 76kg Northern Knights/Next Gen Academy
This is where you take Penrith, if at all. Small, but solidly built defender with lightning speed and good disposal by foot over short to medium distances. Short handballs are generally to "first available" without much thought, which often sells the receiver into trouble. As you would expect from someone in the back half, the defensive side of his game is fine, but that's where it sort of starts and stops for Penrith as there is no real proactive side to his game. He's not a "one touch" player and fumbles a lot, which tends to increase the pressure he finds himself under. Unless he's awarded a free kick through his excellent tackling, Penrith is unlikely to acquire much in the way of contested possessions and from my observations will actively seek to avoid running in straight lines when it's his turn to go. For these reasons I think Penrith will find it too intimidating at both AFL & VFL level against mature bodies and once opposition sides find a weakness in a player they'll go out of their way to exploit it.

Trading of Future Picks.

1. I'm really struggling to work out why one would do this. I've just drafted 6 players, traded another young one in Hopper, SOS will get another couple of rookies and possibly a DFA or two, which will result in another 10 list changes....minimum. All done without dipping into next years picks. While I can see Charlie, Weitering, SOSOS, McKay and Cuningham beginning to genuinely influence games in the second half of next year I still can't see us realistically finishing higher than 12th, especially with having traded out Gibbs, Casboult, Jones and to a lesser extent, White.
2. I watched 5 of this years U18 Champs games live and another one televised. Based upon the quantity and quality of underage players, which included the likes of Izak Rankine, Jack Lukosius, Sam Walsh, Bailey Williams, Jye Caldwell, Rhylee West, Ben King, Max King, Jarrod Fazioli, Ian Hill, Tarryn Thomas & Nicholas Blakey there is absolutely no guarantee that Ben Silvagni will be a top 6 pick in next years draft. None. Will he go 1st Round??? Definitely, but top 10??? I wouldn't bet on it.
3. Imagine if you could snare one of the King brothers, Lukosius, Walsh, Hill or Rankine AND Ben Silvagni. Changes things a lot doesn't it.....but it can never happen if we trade away our future as so many here seem keen to do.
4. At the end of the 2017 trade & draft periods, even if SOS is able to achieve everything that I've proposed here we will have only drafted 15 players of AFL quality and traded another 5. With the impending retirements of Simpson, Rowe & Murphy over the next 2 years, that's still nowhere near enough.
5. Our aim should be to build a list strong enough that the likes of SOSOS & Plowman become depth and others will request trades to seek opportunities elsewhere as they struggle to break into the best 22. Once we reach this level then the list begins to self-generate, a little like the GWS list does, but SOS needs to keep doing exactly what he's been doing for another 3-5 years yet for that to happen.

Leadership.

• If the club is serious that this is a new era then there needs to be an overhaul of the leadership group. That means no Simpson, no Murphy, no Rowe & no Armfield.
• From Pagan, to Ratten, to Malthouse, to Barker and finally Bolton there have been two constants in that leadership group, Murphy & Gibbs. To a some extent I believe people become products of their environment so it's difficult to lay the blame for that purely at the feet of Murphy and Gibbs. The club has much to answer for in that regard, but that doesn't change my opinion that they're average leaders at best.
• It's quite noticeable that Cripps does the organising and issues the instructions at the start of quarters and around the stoppages. His professionalism with regards to his preparation, training, how he presents for preseason and how he's able to perform under adversity make him a standout. For me, in many ways, Cripps is already the Captain in a practical and spiritual sense, so I think it's time those attributes are recognised in an official capacity.
• At this stage I'm happy for the leadership group to be a small one consisting of maybe Cripps, Kreuzer & Docherty. I'm not adverse to expanding that to include Weitering or SPS, but let them become established to a point where their football does a fair bit of their talking for them before subjecting them to more responsibility. Whether that takes 1, 2 or more years doesn't really matter. There's no rush.

Conclusion.

That's me done guys. I had a go.

When I first saw the length of the post, I thought Quigley had hacked your account and I was about the review a Phantom Draft (Nearing called the boss to ask 4 days off)

Great thought provoking post mate.

My thoughts:

Coaching: I would hope that ongoing/end of season reviews are being conducted to ensure the playing group are being challenged/developed in accordance with the structures that were implemented. The success should not be gauged with our win/loss ratio.

Draftees/GWS Acquisitions: Although only two off-seasons in, personally, I can't remember a better crop of draftees being selected for our club. While we need a larger sample size to judge the medium to long term success of these kids, the signs are more than promising. As for the potential/ex GWS players, Plowman & Marchbank seem to be long term players, while I still hold hope for the likes of Phillips & Lamb. For what we gave up, even for these four players, seems like to me a real bargain. As for potential GWS acquisitions, I am confident that SOS will continue to target players that are undervalued, whether that be Kelly, Hopper, Whitfield, Smith, Kennedy, Flynn or a combination of 2-3.

Potential Trades: All I will say on this, is that I find it difficult to imagine that Boekhorst and or White offer any trade value, even as steak knives, but of course nothing should be disregarded.

National Draft: The players you mentioned are all worthy of the pick range you selected, I would throw in names such as Paddy Dow, Jarrod Brander. Charlie Constable, Jack Higgins, Oscar Allen, Charlie Spargo, Ben Miller, Kyron Hayden, Mitch Crowden, Hugh Dixon.

Trading Future Picks: I also find it difficult to comprehend trading away 2018 picks, especially in the 1st 3 rounds, unless SOS conjures a deal to good to refuse.

Leadership: This will continue to evolve to a point, in which I see a predominantly young group lead by Doc & Cripps

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

Pickett to me is the wildcard for us next season. Has all the talent, just needs a full preseason and play as much footy as he can.

There's a few in that category

 

[Metalcrusher]

Just some things I've been kicking around for a while. Go and get yourself a cup of coffee before reading on. You have been warned.

FWIW I think it's certainly possible to move on 10-11 players this year quite comfortably. Just be aware that not all of them will be ones that you'll necessarily want moved on, but sometimes things need to be orchestrated for the greater good. The post covers a range of issues from questions regarding some of our Assistant Coaches, to Trades, Drafting, Trading of Future Picks & Potential Leadership Changes.

Coaching.

1. I'd really like the club to review the positions of the John Barker (Stoppages Coach), Tim Clarke (Midfield Coach), Matthew Capuano (Development/Ruck Coach), Andrew Walker (Development Coach) and also Neil Craig (Director of Coaching, Performance & Development) and have a good hard look if we're making the best uses of our resources.
2. We currently have 3 midfield coaches in Barker, Clarke & Capuano. How many midfield coaches do we realistically need??? Can Barker's role (Midfield) be combined with Clarke's (stoppages), or can Capuano's role (Ruck) be combined with Clarke's (Stoppages)??? Would a reshuffle free up resources and funds to be used elsewhere or in another capacity???
3. We currently have 3 Development Coaches in Neil Craig (Director of Coaching, Development & Performance), Matthew Capuano (Development/Ruck Coach) and Andrew Walker (Development Coach). Once again, do we really need 3 development coaches??? Can Capuano's role and Walker's role be combined??? Can we redistribute some resources from here to be used elsewhere or used to create a new position???
4. Neil Craig is notable for his contacts in elite sports training and in particular the AIS, but is his skill-set up to date and what cutting edge performance programs has he really introduced at the Blues, if any??? Granted the players can now run out a game rather than fall in a collective heap after quarter time like they did under the Malthouse regime, but blind Freddy could see that was an issue that needed to be addressed. Jack Silvagni came to the club with excellent disposal by foot, but is now only average at best. Do the weight programs influence the position of the ball drop with having wider shoulders etc, or does their core strength training through the thighs, arse, lower back and abdominals effect how their leg swings through the ball with regards to pulling left, right, or affecting their follow through??? Do they keep video logs of players kicking actions (like a golfer's swing) to see how things may, or may not, have changed or altered over time from when they first arrived at the club??? How can those core & weight development programs be refined so as to minimise the effect of altering, or used to improve, a player's kicking or ball-dropping action??? These are the things that I expect a cutting edge sports scientist to be on top of so as to give our players an edge over the competition, not wacko bullshit such as player X can only kick the ball 50 times a week so that he may reduce his chances of suffering stress fractures of the foot by 0.0001%. All I'm asking is are we getting the maximum benefit out of this area of our coaching division??? Is it worth sounding out a couple of people such as Roger Rasheed or Scott Burns???
5. One thing I'd really like to see introduced is a full-time Skills Coach and I'm not just talking for kicking, handballing, marking, etc, but things such as the forgotten art of midfield craft. You know, things like providing blocks, bumps, shepherds, taking an opponents run, sticking a tackle, running both ways, etc. We're absolutely nowhere with this area of the game and never have been, but most clubs are shithouse in this area, including GWS and Geelong. Surprisingly, Kerridge is one of the few on our list you're likely to see some of these things from, but our leaders such as Murphy, Gibbs & Ed have absolutely NFI when it comes to this aspect of play. The only club that really excels in this aspect of play on an entire team level is Hawthorn and I think someone such as Hodge would be perfect for it if coaching is what he wants to do.
6. One of the people I'd like the club to consider as a candidate for the Midfield Coach or Development Coach is Peter Sumich. I was incredibly impressed how he managed to take an group of kids from all over WA and meld them into a cohesive unit that won 3 of their 4 games at this years U18 Championships. His ability to be able to get a bunch of 17 & 18 year old kids to successfully execute a fairly complex game plan to take down a much more highly-fancied Vic Country outfit was outstanding. If the club is serious about having the best possible people to develop our young talent then Sumich should be right at the top of our list.
7. I should point out that I'm not advocating the removal, retention or addition of any, or all, of the afore-mentioned coaches. What I am saying is that after 2 years lets have look and see as to whether we are surrounding Bolton, Fraser and SOS with the best resources possible to achieve their stated aims and that we are extracting the maximum benefit for the expenditure we are putting into those resources.

Player Acquisition

Carlton Players Drafted Since In 2015/16

• Weitering - 18 Games
• C.Curnow - 17 Games
• J.Silvagni - 17 Games
• SPS - 16 Games
• Fisher - 13 Games
• Williamson - 12 Games
• Macreadie - 8 Games
• Cuningham - 8 Games
• McKay - 2 Games
• Polson - 1 Game
• Kerr - 0 Games

TOTAL GAMES 2017 - 112 GAMES

GWS/Ex-GWS Players Traded Or On Our Potential Shopping List.

• Kelly* - 18 Games
• Plowman - 18 Games
• Marchbank - 15 Games
• Smith* - 13 Games
• Lamb - 7 Games
• Hopper* - 6 Games
• Sumner - 4 Games
• Palmer - 1 Game
• Phillips - 1 Game
• Jaksch - 0 Games

TOTAL GAMES 2017 - 83 GAMES* 64 GAMES (if I only include Kelly)

So what this tells me is that:

1. The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence.
2. When your draft picks afford you the opportunity to acquire the créme de la créme of talent in the draft pool then you take it.
3. People on this board seriously continue to underestimate SOS's ability to draft talent and for Bolton to fast track it.
4. With the exception of Hopper, all the GWS/ex-GWX players are in their 3rd or later season while the Blue's draftees are 1st or 2nd year players.
5. I do acknowledge that 12 Kelly games are better than 12 SPS games at this stage, but for how long as that won't always be the case.
6. Peripheral players at GWS will generally only become peripheral players elsewhere and that's not just based upon the ones that have come to us.
7. Based on this sliver of info I'm more than comfortable with SOS to continue going back to the draft and trading for more picks.
8. Bolton, SOS & Trigg have done what they said they'd do, which is go to the draft and invest in the future.
9. We'll probably go into this years draft (before trading) with Picks 2, 38, 56, 74, 92.

Potential Trades:

SOS will need to be both creative and aggressive to acquire half a dozen useful draft picks. Here's a couple of left-field ones I've come up with as well as a couple of more conservative ones.

Casboult FA (Unlikely left-field scenario):

1. May, and I emphasise the word "may", get band 3 compo, but it's just as likely to end up as band 4 - end of 2nd Round.
2. Casboult & his manager have indicated that they'd like to explore the potential of FA rather than negotiate a contract at this stage.
3. SOS could get proactive and "assist" Casboult by finding out how much he wants over what period and try to "broker" a deal for him with another club.
4. Pies have a midfield but no spine, so why not bundle Casboult up with Jones and see if we can pry their 1st Round Pick (Pick 6) away from them. I'd also be looking to swap their 3rd Round Pick for our 4th Rounder as part of this deal. I must admit I'm somewhat reluctant to trade Jones. Probably isn't going to be costing more than $350k/yr, is durable and loves the club, but there's no guarantee he'll produce the same good form next year.
5. If Eddie & Bucks survive the review they'll be under pressure to produce results and a KPF & KPD for under a combined $800k-$900k/year buys them 3-4 years to develop their own.
6. Out Casboult, Jones & Pick 56. In Picks 6 & 42. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 38, 42, 74, 92.

Gibbs Trade:

1. Crows 1st Round Pick is likely to be in the range of Pick 16-18, so I'll say it's 17.
2. The problem with that is that after the matching of academy bids, father-son bids and FA compensation picks, Pick 17 has the potential to blow out to Pick 23 and their 2nd Round Pick could become Pick 42-43. Would rather keep Gibbs than trade him effectively for Picks 23 & 42.
3. I would trade Gibbs for the Crows 1st Rounder and a player I could on-trade such as McGovern though.
4. Crows are yet to re-sign McGovern (too busy saving for Gibbs) so there could be something in that.
5. Crows have a borderline 1st Round Father-Son selection (Jackson Edwards) available to them so trading out their 1st Pick could be advantageous to them.
6. Bundle McGovern up with Boekhorst for West Coast's 1st Rounder, Pick 10.
7. Out Gibbs & Boehorst. In Picks 10 & 17. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 10, 17, 38, 42, 74, 92.

White Trade:

1. The Hawks owe us and it's time to call in "that favour".
2. Simon White & Picks 74 & 92 to the Hawks for Pick 35 (Cats 2nd Rounder, via GWS, via Carlton....errr, I think that's right) to the Blues.
3. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 10, 17, 35, 38, 42.

Hopper Trade:

1. At a time where we're trying to build depth on a list that still contains a lot of junk, I really struggle parting with two 1st Round Picks for any player, no matter how good he is, especially given our stage of development. For this reason I've decided to target Hopper.
2. I really had trouble deciding what pick to use here because I'd also like to upgrade 1 of our 3rd Round Picks.
3. Picks 10 & 42 to the Giants for Hopper & Pick 23 (Pies 2nd Rounder) to the Blues.
4. While this trade values Hopper at approximately Pick 18, it does give GWS access to top a 10 Pick which I think they'd jump at while allowing us to upgrade Pick 42 to Pick 23.
5. Draft Picks now stand at 2, 6, 17, 23, 35, 38.

Trade Summary:

1. While I acknowledge that the Casboult trade us somewhat left-field and somewhat optimistic, SOS has shown himself to amazingly resourceful. Extracting a 1st Round Pick for Tuohy and a 2nd Round Pick for Bell are examples.
2. We now have three 1st Round Picks, two 2nd Round Picks, an early 3rd Round Pick & Hopper.
3. I've traded Gibbs, Casboult, Jones, White, Boekhorst and Picks 56, 74 & 92 to get them though.
4. My only concern is that I've given away 5 mature bodies and only brought 1 back in. SOS may be able to acquire a couple of DFAs to partially offset that.
5. Please note that some draft picks may have changed since I started on this post due team movement on the ladder.

National Draft:

I've tried to acquire players that:

• Address areas in which we're deficient. In particular give the midfield a bloody good overhaul.
• Demonstrated they can put together consistent performances.
• Have good disposal by hand and foot.
• Already have a defensive aspect to their game.
• Already possess a decent endurance base.
• Can hunt their own ball.
• Add a bit of overall size, power, speed & class to the team as a whole.
• Have a realistic chance of being available where I've selected them.

Pick 2 - Adam Cerra - Inside Mid 186cm 85kg Eastern Ranges.
I'm still yet to see, hear or read anything from anyone to convince me that there is a better, or more complete midfielder, in this years draft crop than Adam Cerra. Inside mids that can spread from the contest to become involved in chains of play and kick goals are worth their weight in gold. In a BOG performance against Gippsland Power, Cerra amassed 24 disposals and booted 3 goals. His clearance work inside the stoppages is superb and his vision to find and then surgically pick out the best option by hand or foot is sublime. Already boasts a defensive side to his game and plays with a great team ethos doing all the little things such as laying tackles, bumps, blocks and shepherds all while bringing his team mates into the game. Has reasonable pace without being lightning, doesn't have any endurance issues and is quite a solid mark overhead without being spectacular. Consistency, hard-working, team-oriented and classy are all descriptions that come to mind when I think of Cerra and once he fills out with a couple of preseasons I'd expect him to become a genuine midfield powerhouse.

Pick 6 - Andrew Brayshaw - Inside Mid 183cm 80kg Sandringham Dragons.
As an inside mid who can find the ball at stoppages and provide quality disposal under pressure, I rate Brayshaw just behind Cerra. Very clean hands when gathering the ball inside and then in the twinkling of an eye with a couple of quicks steps he's transitioned to the outside and into space without anyone ever laying glove on him. Its at this point where he either accelerates away from the contest or cannily assesses his options. Is a really nice right foot kick, that more often than not, find their intended target even over 50m. His excellent work ethic, hard-running and strong endurance allow him to acquire multiple possessions in chains of play and get from contest to contest with ease. Has a happy knack of finding himself in oodles of space up the corridor of the ground where he then surges downfield with ball in hand. I also considered Higgins here, but where Brayshaw wins out is that he takes so much territory off the opposition by moving the ball forwards rather than laterally or backwards. I know many of the U18 boffins have Brayshaw somewhere in the early 20s of their Power Rankings, but I'd expect him to come into top 10 calculations as we approach draft time. I don't see too many weaknesses in Brayshaw's game and his ability to transition from inside to outside is extraordinary. Would love to have him at the Blues.

Pick 17 - James Worpel - Inside Mid 185cm 84kg Geelong Falcons.
Clearance specialist with a hard edge, good agility and acceleration which allow him find space in the contest where there is none. He's as tough, tenacious and fearless as a honey badger where no quarter is ever asked for or given, and his consistent performances over 4 matches earned him Vic Country's MVP award. He's already strong enough to stand up in tackles and Worpel will only become more powerful in this department as he improves his core strength further in an elite AFL environment. His endurance allows him to cover an enormous amount of territory during the course of a game and his work ethic in this regard cannot be questioned. Worpel was the leading tackler in this years Carnival and when he nails an opponent the he takes them to ground. The biggest knock on Worpel has been his kicking, but I watched 3 of Vic Country's games live and really had trouble faulting it off either foot tbh. Last year he seemed to "place" the ball on his foot when kicking, nowhere near to the same extent as Jordan Gallucci or Elliott Himmelberg, but that has been completely removed from his kicking action now. My only real criticism of Worpel is that he doesn't make enough use of the team mates around him and can try to do it all by himself on occasions and that's nothing a good bit of coaching won't correct. It's been a long time since we've had a quality midfielder who made the opposition look over their shoulder when they hear footsteps. Go get him SOS.

Pick 23 - Brayden Crossley - Ruck 198cm 105kg Labrador Tigers/GCS Academy
An absolute beast of a kid who had an outstanding Carnival, which earned him the Allies MVP in this series. While he averaged 28HO & 15 disposals, it was the 5 clearances per game that really made him stand out, which was the 4th most of any player in this years Carnival. His follow-up work from aerial contests is excellent and he's wonderfully clean off the deck for someone his size. His disposal by hand or foot is sound without being anything special and if he manages to get a shot at goal while resting up forward he certainly "knows where they are". Moves around the ground well enough to get where he needs to be, but a couple preseasons to slightly adjust his body shape and further his endurance levels will only see him get stronger in this department. Having said that, unlike most junior rucks, you're not going to have to wait 3-5 years for him to fill out. Some may be surprised to see me take him this early, but taking him later will almost certainly see Gold Coast match the bid.....and we desperately need a quality developing ruck.

Pick 35 - Harrison Petty - Key Defender 194cm 81kg Norwood.
Petty was one of the surprise packets of this years U18 Championships and his consistency throughout the Carnival saw him rewarded with the SA MVP. His contested and intercept marking is excellent and his decision-making is very sound knowing exactly when to go for those marks or affect the spoil. Accumulates quite a lot of the ball for a KPD and he uses it quite well by hand or foot. Another KPD you say??? Well I've traded Jones, I've traded White, it's somewhat debatable we'll see Rowe beyond next season and ASOS is proving to be somewhat injury-prone and isn't really a medium/longterm solution. So it does make sense to replenish the ranks. Besides, we need another Harry. Nevertheless the question remains, why are all Harrys KPPs???

Pick 38 - Andrew McPherson - Medium Defender/Outside Mid 186cm 78kg Woodville-West Torrens.
Hard running defender with a nice balance of attack and defence who uses the ball well by hand or foot and already has a pretty good endurance base. Accumulates plenty of the ball across half back or on a wing all while managing to keep his opponent under control. Represented SA in the U18 Champs last year as a 17yo, but missed this years Carnival with a quad strain. Played quite well in the Academy game against the Northern Blues where he had 13 disposals and 4 tackles against a forward line that boasted the likes of McKay, Jones & Jaksch. Went back to the SANFL reserves the following week where he played a blinder with 27 possessions and 6 rebound 50s. If you like the balance of run, rebound and defence that Wilson and Williams provide for GWS then you'll also like what McPherson potentially offers.

Rookie Pick 2 - Ethan Penrith - Small Defender 179cm 76kg Northern Knights/Next Gen Academy
This is where you take Penrith, if at all. Small, but solidly built defender with lightning speed and good disposal by foot over short to medium distances. Short handballs are generally to "first available" without much thought, which often sells the receiver into trouble. As you would expect from someone in the back half, the defensive side of his game is fine, but that's where it sort of starts and stops for Penrith as there is no real proactive side to his game. He's not a "one touch" player and fumbles a lot, which tends to increase the pressure he finds himself under. Unless he's awarded a free kick through his excellent tackling, Penrith is unlikely to acquire much in the way of contested possessions and from my observations will actively seek to avoid running in straight lines when it's his turn to go. For these reasons I think Penrith will find it too intimidating at both AFL & VFL level against mature bodies and once opposition sides find a weakness in a player they'll go out of their way to exploit it.

Trading of Future Picks.

1. I'm really struggling to work out why one would do this. I've just drafted 6 players, traded another young one in Hopper, SOS will get another couple of rookies and possibly a DFA or two, which will result in another 10 list changes....minimum. All done without dipping into next years picks. While I can see Charlie, Weitering, SOSOS, McKay and Cuningham beginning to genuinely influence games in the second half of next year I still can't see us realistically finishing higher than 12th, especially with having traded out Gibbs, Casboult, Jones and to a lesser extent, White.
2. I watched 5 of this years U18 Champs games live and another one televised. Based upon the quantity and quality of underage players, which included the likes of Izak Rankine, Jack Lukosius, Sam Walsh, Bailey Williams, Jye Caldwell, Rhylee West, Ben King, Max King, Jarrod Fazioli, Ian Hill, Tarryn Thomas & Nicholas Blakey there is absolutely no guarantee that Ben Silvagni will be a top 6 pick in next years draft. None. Will he go 1st Round??? Definitely, but top 10??? I wouldn't bet on it.
3. Imagine if you could snare one of the King brothers, Lukosius, Walsh, Hill or Rankine AND Ben Silvagni. Changes things a lot doesn't it.....but it can never happen if we trade away our future as so many here seem keen to do.
4. At the end of the 2017 trade & draft periods, even if SOS is able to achieve everything that I've proposed here we will have only drafted 15 players of AFL quality and traded another 5. With the impending retirements of Simpson, Rowe & Murphy over the next 2 years, that's still nowhere near enough.
5. Our aim should be to build a list strong enough that the likes of SOSOS & Plowman become depth and others will request trades to seek opportunities elsewhere as they struggle to break into the best 22. Once we reach this level then the list begins to self-generate, a little like the GWS list does, but SOS needs to keep doing exactly what he's been doing for another 3-5 years yet for that to happen.

Leadership.

• If the club is serious that this is a new era then there needs to be an overhaul of the leadership group. That means no Simpson, no Murphy, no Rowe & no Armfield.
• From Pagan, to Ratten, to Malthouse, to Barker and finally Bolton there have been two constants in that leadership group, Murphy & Gibbs. To a some extent I believe people become products of their environment so it's difficult to lay the blame for that purely at the feet of Murphy and Gibbs. The club has much to answer for in that regard, but that doesn't change my opinion that they're average leaders at best.
• It's quite noticeable that Cripps does the organising and issues the instructions at the start of quarters and around the stoppages. His professionalism with regards to his preparation, training, how he presents for preseason and how he's able to perform under adversity make him a standout. For me, in many ways, Cripps is already the Captain in a practical and spiritual sense, so I think it's time those attributes are recognised in an official capacity.
• At this stage I'm happy for the leadership group to be a small one consisting of maybe Cripps, Kreuzer & Docherty. I'm not adverse to expanding that to include Weitering or SPS, but let them become established to a point where their football does a fair bit of their talking for them before subjecting them to more responsibility. Whether that takes 1, 2 or more years doesn't really matter. There's no rush.

Conclusion.

That's me done guys. I had a go.

Love ya work TSG

 

[Soapy V]

If Gibbs and Levi do leave this year who replaces them? We will struggle to win a game next year and I can't see how this helps our young team. Do we just take our picks which most likely will be three in the top 25 to the draft and load up again on kids?

Yes or trade for better

 

[The Smoking Gun]

This is illegal, you can not on trade players.

Then you do it as a 3 way trade. This is Big Footy which has absolutely no place for technicalities.

Cas is a unrestricted FA meaning he is FREE, no trade required, we don't get too match.

You absolutely positively put-your-balls-on-a-guillotine sure about that, because I'm not. http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players.

Do you seriously think Cas and Jones are worth pick 6?

• Did anyone seriously think Chris Mayne is worth 4 years @ $500k??? We are talking about the Pies here.
• Fact: Liam Jones is the No.1 intercept player per possession in the AFL. Embrace the beast.
• There are plenty here who think Casboult is worth a 2nd Round Pick including me and there's absolutely no way I'd be prepared to part with Jones unless it was absolutely worth our while. Pick 6 for a combo of Casboult & Jones is a scenario that I'd entertain. Is it highly unlikely??? Yes....but I did state that.

 

[Soapy V]

I agree. 8 senior listed players is about the most you can move on in any one year, and it will make it even harder if you lose additional best 22 players like Gibbs & Casboult.

Get rid of any more than that & the new recruits development will stagnate in an uncompetitive VFL with no mature bodies around.



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Not if their picks are used for ready made young players like Kelly & Hopper or even better we get 2 players for one pick

 

[Soapy V]

When you finish higher up, it means you have more quality players. This means you have more trade currency.

We dont.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

Where have we finished the last 2 years?

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think weitering would potentially offer but at the moment looks like he has a very low ceiling
So many flaws in his game.
Somebody would see a number 1 pick in him and good luck to them
Jones has definitely more versatility going forward..

wow very short sighted. he's in his second year as a KPP mate, and likely playing with niggling injuries.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Why not apply for one.
All the AFL can say is no.

The other indirect outcome is that you offer yourself (as a club) to be a bit of a laughing stock. Media love to stick the boots in "Carlton are still a basket case" etc. You have to weigh up whether you are a realistic chance of getting one against the backlash for asking (and the flow on effects like next years membership figures not to mention the customary 50 page Carlton are crap threads on the main board). Old criteria used to be 4 or less wins in the two latest seasons. With 7 and 5 I can't see us getting one however it now appears to be done on an arbitrary basis.
Personally I would prefer to club to show a steely resolve "We are on the road, we know where we are going and we have taken the correct path to get us there".

 

[Blue Baggers]

Anyone saying we should trade Weiters needs to go support another side! He's a generational player in his 2nd year! This bloke has 10yrs of elite level football ahead and was a standout #1 pick!

 

[My name geoff]

People smashing Weitering need to understand that he is still a teenager and is playing key positions up forward and down back. Weitering is 84th in the league for contested marks (only 2 less than Rance) and he is only 4 months older than Macreadie. Imagine Macreadie was in the top 100 in the comp for anything?

Along with Hipwood, Weitering is the only teenager within the top 100 players in the comp for contested marks.

Do you honestly think he is still going to be playing laboured footy as he is now when he is 22? When Rance was the same age he was a whipping boy and the biggest klutz I've seen.

 

[Jeremias]

The other indirect outcome is that you offer yourself (as a club) to be a bit of a laughing stock. Media love to stick the boots in "Carlton are still a basket case" etc.

I don't think the club would be too worried about what the media has to say...

You have to weigh up whether you are a realistic chance of getting one against the backlash for asking (and the flow on effects like next years membership figures not to mention the customary 50 page Carlton are crap threads on the main board).

...and I certainly don't think they care what people on BigFooty say!

How many members do you really think we'd lose by asking the question?

Personally I would prefer to club to show a steely resolve "We are on the road, we know where we are going and we have taken the correct path to get us there".

I don't see the two as being mutually exclusive.

Why can't we ask for a priority pick whilst understanding we're on the right path?