Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[1981]

Certainly in the ball park. I just can't see SOS giving up our 1st pick this year or especially next. If Kelly did nominate us, SOS would possible manufacture another option, probably around the compensation we get from Gibbs

So much to play out

That's what he should try and do.
No guarantee works though.
But he'd be negligent to not try.

 

[1981]

I see and hear from the club that they are very keen to get into a winning culture sooner rather than later. They have done the heavy lifting in the draft and are now keen to start reaping some return in terms of the teams performance. Its all well and good to say we are rebuilding blah blah blah, but at some stage the team has to show the members that it was all worth the pain and we are starting to climb the ladder. That year is 2018 IMO. Without a fringe 8 finish the jungle drums will start beating for BB. Players will start questioning their decision to stay as they roll out of contracts and membership will drop. Simply we need to improve next year. Now by recruiting kelly and then turning around and getting rid of Gibbs, I see it as very unlikely that Kelly will make a material difference in our performance. Simply we need both to be performing and forming a solid core along with Murphy and Cripps, so that the young developing mids can thrive and improve. If Kelly wants to come (and it is sounding more and more like he has chosen us) then SOS knows that he is in the drivers seat in these negotiations and he is not going to give GWS a free kick on this. IMO its our first pick and thats it. There wont be any fire sales to raise picks to satisfy GWS. The penalty we pay will be in the Kelly contract- not in terms of sycophant delivery of picks to GWS. If we get an early second rounder for Casboult , I can see sos trading the casboult pick and our second round pick next year for Josh possibly with a salary dump to help them out, as another scenario

Two second rounders for Kelly?? No fn way mate

 

[Blue__Balls]

Tell you what - if we end up with Pick 1, I'd be expecting Kelly and change.

This might seem a bit greedy or unrealistic, but GWS would be salivating at the prospect of getting their pick of the draft this year. Coupled with the threat of the PSD (never going to happen, but still a genuine bargaining tool) we'd be well within our rights to take a fringe player in the deal as well.

Pick 1 = Kelly and someone like Flynn (20yo ruckman) who won't be a factor in GWS's finals campaign in the next few years.

We'd have all the power in that negotiation - Kelly nominates us, we have the best pick in the draft to offer up, and if GWS don't play ball Kelly can still get to us with GWS getting nothing in return.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Not a fan of Saad and don't think his style of play and efficiency suits Boltons game plan. Would rather take the pick to the draft. We need picks to target a ruck.

Don't want redpath and he'd be silly to come to us. Anyone in his position would know he is just marking time until Harry and Charlie can do it on their own.
Would rather a draft pick or a mid squeezed out like Dale.

Not sure your Dees trade is ideal considering it could be 12+14 for pick 1-6 big risk on our end

Saad has some question marks, but he's definitely better than what we'd get at pick 38 in this year's draft. Adding Whitfield, Hopper and two top 12 mids essentially finishes off the engine room, and takes us to the point everyone loves to aim for - "time to add the cream". Saad is cream.

Redpath's whole career has been marking time. If we lose Casboult, we need someone to fill that void. Redpath is every chance of holding that spot until BSOS is up and running in 3-4 years time, and would be a really good component of a varied forward line. Redpath (gorilla in the square), McKay (super-mobile CHF), Curnow (high workrate third tall who can push up the ground), Silvagni (versatile medium forward), plus smalls like Murphy, SPS, Fisher and Wright who can apply pressure and shark goals. If Dale is getting squeezed out there's no reason we can't get him as well for a late pick.

The Dees deal is the one I'm still mulling over.

My thinking is that we need to be pushing up the ladder in 2018. Bottom 3 again won't cut it. So let's go all in and downgrade next year's first to pick up an extra one this year. On draft points, 12 + 14 equates to Pick 2, so we'd have to have a horrendous year to lose out. And if Melbourne stall or have a poor year, we could just as easily end up with Pick 9 or 10 next year. Ignoring the points, it's an extra mid this year, and we keep a presence in the first round next year in what should be a deeper draft. We'd also have the option to trade our 2019 first for a 2018 first if we wanted to, so we could still end up with a high first rounder next season.

At some point we need to get out of "rebuild" mode and make a statement. Bringing in Whitfield, Hopper, Redpath, Saad, Balic and two top 12 mids is a huge step toward being competitive, and if we can't push up to around 8-10 on the ladder with that side then we have issues other than the list to address.

 

[Arr0w]

I see and hear from the club that they are very keen to get into a winning culture sooner rather than later. They have done the heavy lifting in the draft and are now keen to start reaping some return in terms of the teams performance. Its all well and good to say we are rebuilding blah blah blah, but at some stage the team has to show the members that it was all worth the pain and we are starting to climb the ladder. That year is 2018 IMO. Without a fringe 8 finish the jungle drums will start beating for BB. Players will start questioning their decision to stay as they roll out of contracts and membership will drop. Simply we need to improve next year. Now by recruiting kelly and then turning around and getting rid of Gibbs, I see it as very unlikely that Kelly will make a material difference in our performance. Simply we need both to be performing and forming a solid core along with Murphy and Cripps, so that the young developing mids can thrive and improve. If Kelly wants to come (and it is sounding more and more like he has chosen us) then SOS knows that he is in the drivers seat in these negotiations and he is not going to give GWS a free kick on this. IMO its our first pick and thats it. There wont be any fire sales to raise picks to satisfy GWS. The penalty we pay will be in the Kelly contract- not in terms of sycophant delivery of picks to GWS. If we get an early second rounder for Casboult , I can see sos trading the casboult pick and our second round pick next year for Josh possibly with a salary dump to help them out, as another scenario

A lot of what you say, still shows a strong sense of impatience, as is evident with many other posters. We are in the middle of a rebuild which has enabled us to recruit some amazing talent. Our improvement next year will not be based on wins/loses, but the further improvement of each young player. We will not be on the fringe of the 8 next year and the jungle drums will not beat for this reason. Why are people contemplating, that losing Gibbs will only involve picks and not a combination of pick/player is also bewildering, but then not highlighting the improvement of 4 or so young midfielders to take up the slack of one player Players will know the difference between winning. or lack there of and incremental improvements in game plan and development as a collective group. Our 1st pick alone, will not get Kelly, what we decide to pay in terms of salary has nothing to do with what the trade value should be. This whole "Casboult Compo Pick" has been ingrained into people's mind for some reason, with a clear lack research/knowledge as to how the compensations system works.

Perhaps many should come back to this board in a couple of years, so they can keep their frustration levels intact

 

[Arr0w]

Tell you what - if we end up with Pick 1, I'd be expecting Kelly and change.

This might seem a bit greedy or unrealistic, but GWS would be salivating at the prospect of getting their pick of the draft this year. Coupled with the threat of the PSD (never going to happen, but still a genuine bargaining tool) we'd be well within our rights to take a fringe player in the deal as well.

Pick 1 = Kelly and someone like Flynn (20yo ruckman) who won't be a factor in GWS's finals campaign in the next few years.

We'd have all the power in that negotiation - Kelly nominates us, we have the best pick in the draft to offer up, and if GWS don't play ball Kelly can still get to us with GWS getting nothing in return.

Completely agree, with the improved negotiate position we would hold if we finish last. I wouldn't screw over any club, but the benefits are tantalising

 

[HBF]

Read curious as to whether you guys are seriously into Kelly. I think he'll go and the receiving club will pay overs with all the hype. Judgement for your list manager I get. Honestly wouldn't hold your breath for Whitfield though I beleive he's committed.

I just don't like the idea of paying two 1st rounders for someone.
And I suspect SOS won't want to do that either.

 

[Aphrodite]

See i think Carlton should go down a different plan...

Seeing how drug cheats are now admired in the community and everyone in the media are rooting for them to win as a feel good story...

WHY??? Why don't the Blues go down the innovative bummers path... think of it...

We have a really young list that if we can speed up their development by drug cheating would be advantageous... Do it, take the ban for two years...

We would then have in 3 years a list with 24 - 25 year old's in their prime (+with the added effect of juicing up, key is keeping their fitness levels up).

That along with high draft picks we receive from being on the bottom... imagine the team we would have...

Just saying... its an idea and a real way to advance the list for a flag tilt in 3 years...!!!!

Its a good hypothetical though... Not saying i'd ever condone our club doing this... but if the scum win a flag then maybe it was a good idea after all... HIRD may be a genius

I have no words!




Actually I do but I would have to card myself.

 

[Wickzki]

I have no words!




Actually I do but I would have to card myself.

To Dangerfield or not to Dangerfield... That is the question!

 

[Wickzki]

See i think Carlton should go down a different plan...

 

[1981]

Do we have certainty over what level of comp we will get for Levi at the reported $500k per year Rich are supposedly offering?

 

[HARKER]

Tell you what - if we end up with Pick 1, I'd be expecting Kelly and change.

This might seem a bit greedy or unrealistic, but GWS would be salivating at the prospect of getting their pick of the draft this year. Coupled with the threat of the PSD (never going to happen, but still a genuine bargaining tool) we'd be well within our rights to take a fringe player in the deal as well.

Pick 1 = Kelly and someone like Flynn (20yo ruckman) who won't be a factor in GWS's finals campaign in the next few years.

We'd have all the power in that negotiation - Kelly nominates us, we have the best pick in the draft to offer up, and if GWS don't play ball Kelly can still get to us with GWS getting nothing in return.

You have to look at it from GWS's point of view and that is what's going out compared to what's coming in.
They'd sooner hold onto a 22 star than having to dip into a draft for another 18 year old, just for the 'prestige' of it.....and there are no Nick Reiwoldts there.

We have be comfortable that whatever we give up should we acquire Kelly, will be for more than just our first this year.
What that may be we don't know yet, but it will be more than Kelly for Rayner.....and so it should be.

 

[ShanDog]

Here's my early August guess at what will happen.

FA Out: Levi Casboult
Picks In: Priority pick (18), Levi Casboult compensation pick (20)

Draft picks: 1, 18*, 20*, 37 (3rd), 55 (4th), 73 (5th)

---

Bryce Gibbs

Jake Lever will end up at the Pies. Crows will get the Pies first and on trade it.

To Carlton: Pick 6* + Pick 17
To Adelaide: Bryce Gibbs + Carlton's 2018 2nd round pick

Values Gibbs as worth slightly more than pick 6. Similar in some ways to the Tuohy trade (trading in a first for our second next year)

---

Josh Kelly nominates Carlton

Carlton trade: Pick 6, Pick 20 (Casboult compensation)

GWS trade: Josh Kelly

Essentially Carlton turns Gibbs, Casboult's compo pick and our 2nd round selection next year into Josh Kelly and pick 17. I can live with that.

---

Harley Balic nominates Carlton

Carlton trade: Blaine Boekhorst + pick 37 + pick 55

Fremantle trade: Harley Balic + pick 41*

Seems like the type of bust for bust trade that is made every year. We wont be using pick 55 so trade looks good for both.

---

Retirements: Dennis Armfield, Sam Rowe, Simon White

Delistings: Dylan Buckley, Daniel Gorringe, Nick Graham, Rhys Palmer

Rookie delistings: Andrew Gallucci, Matthew Korcheck

Designated free agents in: Harrison Wigg, Brandon Jack, Jack Redpath

The truth is you'd probably like one or two more delistings. However, this way I see us drafting to pick 41 in what is considered a shallow draft. Three of those picks are in the top 18. The last is pick 41. This is a good draft. Adding three designated free agents seems to be about right. Don't want to draft after 41 and adding any more DFA seems like a wash.

---

2017 AFL Draft

Pick 1 -- Cameron Rayner
Pick 17 -- Darcy Fogarty (poor carnival saw most drop him to just outside the top ten and the injury will drop his value a bit more. Could become the steal of the draft)
Pick 18 -- James Worpel
Pick 41 -- Jordan Houlahan

Other than Rayner, Fogarty and Worpel I don't know that much about the draft this year. However, Houlahan's game against the Allies impressed me. It's something we could use. Good straight kick for goal.

Feel free to substitute my selections with your favorites.

---

Final 2017-18 List Changes

OUT: Dennis Armfield, Blaine Boekhorst, Dylan Buckley, Levi Casboult, Bryce Gibbs, Nick Graham, Rhys Palmer, Sam Rowe, Simon White
IN: Harley Balic, Brandon Jack, Josh Kelly, Jack Redpath, Harrison Wigg + draft picks (1/17/18/41) - Rayner, Fogarty, Worpel, Houlahan

Summary:

Two of our 2017 best 22 depart in Gibbs and Casboult. You would expect at least 4 of those guys to be locks in our best 22 by the end of next season (Kelly, Rayner, Fogarty, Worpel) with Balic, Jack and Wigg to be thereabouts at worst. Redpath is a placeholder who will give support when the trio of Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni and Harry McKay need a rest. Who knows what will come of pick 41. SOS probably has someone else in mind for that spot. Then we have the rookie draft on top of that.

Ultimately, that's a fairly solid mix of trades without affecting SOS's ability to do what he does best and go to the draft.

Still not sure we get rid of Nicky G at this stage. We clearly lack midfielders, and even with bringing in Kelly (and especially if we lose Gibbs), I would have thought that we hang on to Graham for purely pragmatic reasons. I don't think we can afford to lose more midfielders than we gain this year without it making us a couple of injuries away from falling in the same hole as this year, regardless of development time for SPS, Cuningham, Polson etc. They will still be second and third year players.

 

[StandByyourMan]

There's no such thing as overpaying really
You're going to pay what it takes to buy

You can overpay at the trade table

 

[Blue__Balls]

You have to look at it from GWS's point of view and that is what's going out compared to what's coming in.
They'd sooner hold onto a 22 star than having to dip into a draft for another 18 year old, just for the 'prestige' of it.....and there are no Nick Reiwoldts there.

We have be comfortable that whatever we give up should we acquire Kelly, will be for more than just our first this year.
What that may be we don't know yet, but it will be more than Kelly for Rayner.....and so it should be.

If Kelly decides at the end of his contract to request a trade to the bottom placed team, it certainly won't be Pick 1 and change to get him. Kelly for Rayner right now isn't equitable, but on that measure no trade ever is. Here's some simple player for pick trades:

2014 - Coll/Nth - Greenwood for Neilson
2015 - Mel/Ess - Melksham for Redman
2015 - WC/GC - Rosa for Cole
2015 - Car/Ric - Yarran for Cuningham
2016 - Syd/Ric - Nankervis for Maibaum

I'd go so far as to say any Player for Pick trade is by default inequitable. Any of those established players would have been preferable to another 18 year old. But if the established player wants out...

I'm sure GWS would rather trade Kelly for another established, quality mid, but that's not going to happen unless Gibbs decides he actually wants to live in Sydney. So the next best thing is that they get the best Pick/s available, and Pick 1 is the top of the list.

I'm really uncomfortable with the fact that people seem OK with the idea of any player being worth more than Pick 1. It's like the whole market is shifting and the cost of players in people's minds is trending up at the same rate as the salary cap. If we have Pick 1, we don't need to add anything else to the mix to get Kelly, and if anything we have the leverage to squeeze a little something extra out of the deal.

Why would we ever concede Pick 1 + change?

 

[Iamcarlton]

Except Brisbane with a 1-3 record between now and the end of the season will also likely lose percentage...

A 10% swing this late in the year would be almost impossible, you'd think, especially for the two lowest placed teams.

That being said, with winnable games at the Gabba against WB, Gold Coast and North, Brisbane are every chance of passing us on points.

I hope so however i fear the worst case with brisbane playing at home in 3 of their last 4 if they are competive against Melbourne in their only road game i think we are in strife for last place . Im expecting it will get ugly for us in our games .

 

[Wily trout]

Everyone will see things differently and I see this:

SPS: Will be every inch a midfielder. Has all the right traits to become a high quality mid.
Cunningham: A burst player that will have good moments, but can't see him becoming that 25 possession a game player.
Williamson: Looks perfectly suited to play wing (wide mid) Has all the tools to become a wonderful player on the outside.
Fisher is a mid for mine. I don't care how small he is as long as he can get his hands onto the ball. Going to be a good stoppage player.

Absolutely agree. I feel we (myself included) can be too focused on what we need to 'get' , to improve our midfield that we sometimes overlook or underestimate what we actually have coming through. I am all for getting a Kelly or Hopper or whoever, but I am also very keen to see how good some of these kids might actually be in the very near future.

 

[StandByyourMan]

Still not sure we get rid of Nicky G at this stage. We clearly lack midfielders, and even with bringing in Kelly (and especially if we lose Gibbs), I would have thought that we hang on to Graham for purely pragmatic reasons. I don't think we can afford to lose more midfielders than we gain this year without it making us a couple of injuries away from falling in the same hole as this year, regardless of development time for SPS, Cuningham, Polson etc. They will still be second and third year players.

....or just pull it off like a band aid.

 

[DangerousD]

Saad has some question marks, but he's definitely better than what we'd get at pick 38 in this year's draft. Adding Whitfield, Hopper and two top 12 mids essentially finishes off the engine room, and takes us to the point everyone loves to aim for - "time to add the cream". Saad is cream.

Redpath's whole career has been marking time. If we lose Casboult, we need someone to fill that void. Redpath is every chance of holding that spot until BSOS is up and running in 3-4 years time, and would be a really good component of a varied forward line. Redpath (gorilla in the square), McKay (super-mobile CHF), Curnow (high workrate third tall who can push up the ground), Silvagni (versatile medium forward), plus smalls like Murphy, SPS, Fisher and Wright who can apply pressure and shark goals. If Dale is getting squeezed out there's no reason we can't get him as well for a late pick.

The Dees deal is the one I'm still mulling over.

My thinking is that we need to be pushing up the ladder in 2018. Bottom 3 again won't cut it. So let's go all in and downgrade next year's first to pick up an extra one this year. On draft points, 12 + 14 equates to Pick 2, so we'd have to have a horrendous year to lose out. And if Melbourne stall or have a poor year, we could just as easily end up with Pick 9 or 10 next year. Ignoring the points, it's an extra mid this year, and we keep a presence in the first round next year in what should be a deeper draft. We'd also have the option to trade our 2019 first for a 2018 first if we wanted to, so we could still end up with a high first rounder next season.

At some point we need to get out of "rebuild" mode and make a statement. Bringing in Whitfield, Hopper, Redpath, Saad, Balic and two top 12 mids is a huge step toward being competitive, and if we can't push up to around 8-10 on the ladder with that side then we have issues other than the list to address.

I somewhat agree with lots here but at the same time disagree on a few too.
You can't possibly say with any certainty that Saad will be better than who we get at 38, of course it's possible but it isn't a sure thing and i still don't see him as cream in any side.

On Redpath again, if he's moving the there is a few other clubs which suit him better than us but my biggest issue with getting him is, that we are going in to games too tall. Mckay, Curnow, Jack is three and anymore then is detrimental to the team. If we are going after Balic which i would like then we have no other ways of getting Dale or a mid squeezed from the Dogs. So I'm still passing on Redpath.

Im a fan of trading next years 1st but unsure in what capacity. If we want two 1st round picks from it then we have to offer an incentive like you suggested but I'm hoping it's not the Dees as i see them improving. Possibly Saints or the Eagles.

As for getting out of the rebuild, if Cas and Gibbs leave as many expect, even with additions of Whitfield or Hopper or Smith, i still see us in the bottom 6. Next year is still a part of the 66 game rebuild but hopefully we can add enough to offer plenty of excitement for fans and prospective new players.

As for Whitfield, Hopper, Smith, Kelly, Greene. If we finish last or second last and have Gibbs or anyone else leave, how do you think that effects the clubs ability to lure these guys? For us to get any of them we will have to pay a pretty $$$$$

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

You can overpay at the trade table

How can you overpay when that's what you thought the deal was work at the time?
Somebody else might think you've overpaid but usually you pay what you pay to get the trade or buy you yearn
It's all relative

 

[therubbernub]

A lot of what you say, still shows a strong sense of impatience, as is evident with many other posters. We are in the middle of a rebuild which has enabled us to recruit some amazing talent. Our improvement next year will not be based on wins/loses, but the further improvement of each young player. We will not be on the fringe of the 8 next year and the jungle drums will not beat for this reason. Why are people contemplating, that losing Gibbs will only involve picks and not a combination of pick/player is also bewildering, but then not highlighting the improvement of 4 or so young midfielders to take up the slack of one player Players will know the difference between winning. or lack there of and incremental improvements in game plan and development as a collective group. Our 1st pick alone, will not get Kelly, what we decide to pay in terms of salary has nothing to do with what the trade value should be. This whole "Casboult Compo Pick" has been ingrained into people's mind for some reason, with a clear lack research/knowledge as to how the compensations system works.

Perhaps many should come back to this board in a couple of years, so they can keep their frustration levels intact

I dont think I am impatient. And I dont think we are in the middle of a rebuild.
After this coming daft season we will be well into it and on a downhill slope. 2019 should complete our rebuild phase. I think we can have a realistic expectation that in 2018 that we are in the 12-8 position. I didnt say play finals- fringe 8 ie competing for a spot in the 8 .
Your comment about our improvement with the young players is spot on and reinforces my view about expected performance. Lastly the jungle drums will beat whether you or I agree with them- thats an afl norm. How our beloved leaders respond to them will determine what happens. If you read my posts you would know that I believe that we are on the right track.
With regard to kelly, I believe that what we offer Kelly has everything to do with where he goes and that what we offer as trade to GWS is up to us (there is no "should be" about it. If GWS dont accept then it is up to them to let him go into the PSD as an alternative where they receive no compensation. At least that is my understanding

 

[footyfan098]

how i see events unfolding:

pick 2, 38, 56, 74

Cas to Richmond as FA - compo in pick 21



(lever to melbourne) pick 12 and change

Gibbs + 21 for 12 and 17

boekhorst + 56 for balic

12, 17, 38 for Josh kelly

sign delisted FAs to strengthen mids and fwds where possible

end result:
pick 2, Josh kelly, Balic, 2x Delisted Fas

out:
Gibbs, Cas, Boekhorst, 38, 56



Essentially we trade Gibbs and Cas for kelly, while keeping pick 1-2. Id do it

 

[HARKER]

I'm really uncomfortable with the fact that people seem OK with the idea of any player being worth more than Pick 1. It's like the whole market is shifting and the cost of players in people's minds is trending up at the same rate as the salary cap. If we have Pick 1, we don't need to add anything else to the mix to get Kelly, and if anything we have the leverage to squeeze a little something extra out of the deal.

Why would we ever concede Pick 1 + change?

You seem to be getting stuck on numbers rather than players.
You shouldn't worry about numbers but if you do, then:

1. This years number one won't be a Riewoldt, Hodge nor Weitering.
2. It may be closer to a Tom Scully, David Swallow or a Jack Watts.

What would we get with Kelly?
Just the sort of ready-to-go A-Grade mid we need whilst being a terrific character, with captaincy potential. No guesswork required.

Now, what do we get with any player in this draft we'd take?
That's all you have to look at and if you can justify anyone being a better bet than Kelly, for us.........I'm interested.

Seems pretty clear to me that we'll need more than just our first pick this year.

 

[Arr0w]

I dont think I am impatient. And I dont think we are in the middle of a rebuild.
After this coming daft season we will be well into it and on a downhill slope. 2019 should complete our rebuild phase. I think we can have a realistic expectation that in 2018 that we are in the 12-8 position. I didnt say play finals- fringe 8 ie competing for a spot in the 8 .
Your comment about our improvement with the young players is spot on and reinforces my view about expected performance. Lastly the jungle drums will beat whether you or I agree with them- thats an afl norm. How our beloved leaders respond to them will determine what happens. If you read my posts you would know that I believe that we are on the right track.
With regard to kelly, I believe that what we offer Kelly has everything to do with where he goes and that what we offer as trade to GWS is up to us (there is no "should be" about it. If GWS dont accept then it is up to them to let him go into the PSD as an alternative where they receive no compensation. At least that is my understanding

I respect your views

 

[Red Bull]

Read curious as to whether you guys are seriously into Kelly. I think he'll go and the receiving club will pay overs with all the hype. Judgement for your list manager I get. Honestly wouldn't hold your breath for Whitfield though I beleive he's committed.

What's the situation with M.Kennedy ?
There's no doubting the class of Kelly but i feel at this stage of our rebuild the price will be to high and the timing not right .
If our 1st rounder on its own gets the job done fine otherwise we pass .
I'd rather take our 1st pick which could very well be no.1 to the draft and then aim for 2 of Hopper , Kennedy or Smith using picks acquired from Gibbs and Casboult .
Would also offer Murphy in negotiations who would give GWS an instant class hit whilst in the premiership window .