Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[TheHeatleyStand]

Your not making a point

Of course I am making a point
Midfield is comprised and compromised by important players aged around thirty
They don't make your midfield great when the squad is ready to roll

 

[TheHeatleyStand]

I watched the GWS game today. Dylan Shiel is a gun! I would much prefer taking our draft picks and then pick up this guy as a fa than spend big on Kelly. He is an inside/outside tough midfielder and would be a massive inclusion in 2 years time. I hope those posters who have suggested he wants to finish his career at Carlton are correct.

A few posters have mentioned that Hopper is sure to go to Geelong, I hope we can get him as he would be perfect for us.

Grab both

 

[No1Suspect]

Don't they have to trade into the 1st round this year though? I find it hard to believe that they can trade their first round pick so many years in a row. I'm pretty sure the rules say you need to have at least 2 every 4 years or something along those lines.

They can do as they please until 2019 when the 'rules come into play'

 

[Blue_Fusion]

He's dominant both inside and outside, and racks up huge metres gained. I'm a massive fan. I would love to see him next to Cripps extracting the ball.

I would be shocked if we didnt throw a crap load of money at him when he becomes a free agent in two years.

Out of all this FA chasing talk we've been doing, this is the one we really have to go after imo.

In a couple of years, our younger players will obviously be more established and we will need to add that extra elite player to make our push towards a flag.

Considering our recent climb up the ladder, our 1st pick this year has dropped out of the top 3. If it's a top 3 pick end of season, we keep it, if not, we put it towards getting Kelly and Hopper along with whatever we get for Gibbs.

So let's say we end up with pick #5.

We get pick #10 + #15 from the Crows for Gibbs. (They'll get #10 from WCE for McGovern I reckon)

Cas band 4 FA gives us pick #37

#5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper > Carlton

That we we keep our first for next year's draft. Spend it on the best mid available, then end of 2019 season we get Shiel.

Our midfield in 2020:

Cripps + Kelly + SPS + Shiel + Cuningham + Hopper + 2018 1st pick

 

[Blue__Balls]

Out of all this FA chasing talk we've been doing, this is the one we really have to go after imo.

In a couple of years, our younger players will obviously be more established and we will need to add that extra elite player to make our push towards a flag.

Considering our recent climb up the ladder, our 1st pick this year has dropped out of the top 3. If it's a top 3 pick end of season, we keep it, if not, we put it towards getting Kelly and Hopper along with whatever we get for Gibbs.

So let's say we end up with pick #5.

We get pick #10 + #15 from the Crows for Gibbs. (They'll get #10 from WCE for McGovern I reckon)

Cas band 4 FA gives us pick #37

#5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper > Carlton

That we we keep our first for next year's draft. Spend it on the best mid available, then end of 2019 season we get Shiel.

Our midfield in 2020:

Cripps + Kelly + SPS + Shiel + Cuningham + Hopper + 2018 1st pick

5 + 10 is a premium for Kelly.
15 for Hopper is about right.
If we're throwing in 37 I'd want their 2018 second rounder coming back.

Other than that it seems equitable. Turns Gibbs, Casboult and Pick 5 in Kelly, Hopper and a future late second.

 

[Arr0w]

Out of all this FA chasing talk we've been doing, this is the one we really have to go after imo.

In a couple of years, our younger players will obviously be more established and we will need to add that extra elite player to make our push towards a flag.

Considering our recent climb up the ladder, our 1st pick this year has dropped out of the top 3. If it's a top 3 pick end of season, we keep it, if not, we put it towards getting Kelly and Hopper along with whatever we get for Gibbs.

So let's say we end up with pick #5.

We get pick #10 + #15 from the Crows for Gibbs. (They'll get #10 from WCE for McGovern I reckon)

Cas band 4 FA gives us pick #37

#5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper > Carlton

That we we keep our first for next year's draft. Spend it on the best mid available, then end of 2019 season we get Shiel.

Our midfield in 2020:

Cripps + Kelly + SPS + Shiel + Cuningham + Hopper + 2018 1st pick

Not that Kelly and Hopper are not exciting players, but that is giving up way too much at this stage of the reset

 

[gandaal]

Out of all this FA chasing talk we've been doing, this is the one we really have to go after imo.

In a couple of years, our younger players will obviously be more established and we will need to add that extra elite player to make our push towards a flag.

Considering our recent climb up the ladder, our 1st pick this year has dropped out of the top 3. If it's a top 3 pick end of season, we keep it, if not, we put it towards getting Kelly and Hopper along with whatever we get for Gibbs.

So let's say we end up with pick #5.

We get pick #10 + #15 from the Crows for Gibbs. (They'll get #10 from WCE for McGovern I reckon)

Cas band 4 FA gives us pick #37

#5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper > Carlton

That we we keep our first for next year's draft. Spend it on the best mid available, then end of 2019 season we get Shiel.

Our midfield in 2020:

Cripps + Kelly + SPS + Shiel + Cuningham + Hopper + 2018 1st pick

#5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper > Carlton

 

[GapInIkonPark]

...
Considering our recent climb up the ladder, our 1st pick this year has dropped out of the top 3. If it's a top 3 pick end of season, we keep it, if not, we put it towards getting Kelly and Hopper along with whatever we get for Gibbs.

So let's say we end up with pick #5.
...

Am very happy with our pick number 6 overall in last year's draft, Samo.

I think if Kelly and Hopper are available to us, we do the deal. If it means losing our 2017 first and say Adelaide's (obtained in a trade if Gibbs leaves) and say the Casboult compensation pick (if he leaves), then that's what it takes.

I suggest take the hit in 2017 and keep the picks for next year.

 

[Coona Blues]

Am very happy with our pick number 6 overall in last year's draft, Samo.

I think if Kelly and Hopper are available to us, we do the deal. If it means losing our 2017 first and say Adelaide's (obtained in a trade if Gibbs leaves) and say the Casboult compensation pick (if he leaves), then that's what it takes.

I suggest take the hit in 2017 and keep the picks for next year.

Yep, not sure on the exact make-up of the "hit". (I think with your scenario I may prefer to give 2018 1st over
this year's.)
Bottom line is IMO those banging on about keeping draft picks at all cost are underselling, and to a degree
disrespecting what SOS and Bolts have done to date. We have more or less 13 under 21 boys most likely to
be long term best 22 players. Add Cripps, Docherty, Byrne, Plowman and conceivably a couple more from the
23 and under bracket and we have the undoubted nucleus of a very powerful footy team.

The majority of these players are still in development stage, if we add a myriad of draft picks to them, we then
have the "problems" of GWS, being unable to give the kids opportunity. We need to trade/draft for elite class
and/or something we lack, or need an upgrade/progression.

I see Hopper as the must get, given our list profile, and Kelly as the dream. If we can get them both, our
future is set, particularly with the prospect of some Free agents in the next couple of seasons, along with
young Ben Silvagni (yes, I prefer to believe the many reports that he is bigger and better than his brother).

Obviously if we maintain our first pick, our drafting would then depend on the acquisition of Kelly and the
retention of Gibbs. I am not usually a supporter of drafting boys with questionable tanks, but hell I like the
profile of Rayner, if he gets to us. (Powerful mid, who regularly hits the scoreboard). Failing that, if we miss
Kelly, Lochie O'Brien must enter the equation.

 

[Aphrodite]

Matthew Kreuzer's career-best form will see him rewarded with new multi-year deal

Kreuzer has reached 2018 trigger but will get extra yr or 2.Ongoing talks b/w Carlton& TLA Worldwide's Nigel Carmody

 

[GapInIkonPark]

From the article ...

“There has to be some genuine credit go to Carlton for the way he is being coached, but also how he is working in tandem with the strength and conditioning staff to have a training program that is clearly getting the most out of him,” Carmody said.

“A lot of people talk about the good environment and the culture at Carlton now and he is someone who echoes the comments of a lot of other guys. He is really enjoying his footy.”
...
# DestinationClub

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Yep, not sure on the exact make-up of the "hit". (I think with your scenario I may prefer to give 2018 1st over
this year's.)
Bottom line is IMO those banging on about keeping draft picks at all cost are underselling, and to a degree
disrespecting what SOS and Bolts have done to date. We have more or less 13 under 21 boys most likely to
be long term best 22 players. Add Cripps, Docherty, Byrne, Plowman and conceivably a couple more from the
23 and under bracket and we have the undoubted nucleus of a very powerful footy team.

The majority of these players are still in development stage, if we add a myriad of draft picks to them, we then
have the "problems" of GWS, being unable to give the kids opportunity. We need to trade/draft for elite class
and/or something we lack, or need an upgrade/progression.

I see Hopper as the must get, given our list profile, and Kelly as the dream. If we can get them both, our
future is set, particularly with the prospect of some Free agents in the next couple of seasons, along with
young Ben Silvagni (yes, I prefer to believe the many reports that he is bigger and better than his brother).

Obviously if we maintain our first pick, our drafting would then depend on the acquisition of Kelly and the
retention of Gibbs. I am not usually a supporter of drafting boys with questionable tanks, but hell I like the
profile of Rayner, if he gets to us. (Powerful mid, who regularly hits the scoreboard). Failing that, if we miss
Kelly, Lochie O'Brien must enter the equation.

From GWS' perspective, its current 2017 first has 1,000 points deducted from it (so somewhere deep in the draft order). Two 2017 firsts looks very attractive, but lose Kelly and Hopper.
From our perspective, we lose Gibbs, Casboult and our 2017 first round pick, get Kelly and Hopper.

We go to the draft next year and hopefully we don't have to match the bid for Ben SOS before we use our first draft pick.

 

[ShanDog]

Yeah mate, i know.
Han didn't.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

Everyone assumes that was an error - what he said would still make sense though. Means he was boasting about knowing shortcuts and having mad sick pilot skills to use them.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Not that Kelly and Hopper are not exciting players, but that is giving up way too much at this stage of the reset

Yeah we should get them to throw their 2018 2nd in to us as well.

So, Pick #5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper + #35 (2018)

Pick 37 this year will most likely be a nothing pick anyway given all the talk of how thin the draft is, while 35 next year will still get us a quality player.

 

[Jimmae]

Yeah we should get them to throw their 2018 2nd in to us as well.

So, Pick #5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper + #35 (2018)

Pick 37 this year will most likely be a nothing pick anyway given all the talk of how thin the draft is, while 35 next year will still get us a quality player.

No.

 

[Arr0w]

Yeah we should get them to throw their 2018 2nd in to us as well.

So, Pick #5 + #10 + #15 + #37 > GWS
Kelly + Hopper + #35 (2018)

Pick 37 this year will most likely be a nothing pick anyway given all the talk of how thin the draft is, while 35 next year will still get us a quality player.

This is what I think SOS will target, especially with these 2 being out of contract. The main requirement would be them nominating as their future home

Out: Pick #5 + #15 + #37
In: Kelly + Hopper

Again I will state, I see Kelly resigning with GWS on a short term deal

Hopper would be the likely acquisition

 

[Jimmae]

This is what I think SOS will target, especially with these 2 being out of contract. The main requirement would be them nominating as their future home

Out: Pick #5 + #15 + #37
In: Kelly + Hopper

Again I will state, I see Kelly resigning with GWS on a short term deal

Hopper would be the likely acquisition

Drop #37 out of it and chuck Wilson in.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

No.

Ok, let's hear who the players are in this year's draft from pick #5, #10 and #15 that look to be as good as/better than Kelly and Hopper?

 

[Jimmae]

Ok, let's hear who the players are in this year's draft from pick #5, #10 and #15 that look to be as good as/better than Kelly and Hopper?

Fogarty, Fogarty and Rayner

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Fogarty, Fogarty and Rayner

Right, so you've got no idea what you're on about.

Meanwhile, in reality, getting those 2 in at the expense of some not so highly rated kids would be a great move.

If we had a top 3 pick, we would've been able to get one of Rayner or Fogarty.

 

[Jimmae]

Right, so you've got no idea what you're on about.

Meanwhile, in reality, getting those 2 in at the expense of some not so highly rated kids would be a great move.

If we had a top 3 pick, we would've been able to get one of Rayner or Fogarty.

Brander, Cerra, O'Brien, Balta, Hayes, Spargo, Higgins, Worpel, Stephenson, etc

There's 12 names. FWIW, I thought it might be Rayner @ 5, D.Fogarty @ 10 and L.Fogarty @ 15.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Brander, Cerra, O'Brien, Balta, Hayes, Spargo, Higgins, Worpel, Stephenson, etc

There's 12 names. FWIW, I thought it might be Rayner @ 5, D.Fogarty @ 10 and L.Fogarty @ 15.

Rayner won't be there at #5, D.Fogarty certainly won't be there at #10 unless he plays like garbage till the draft, L.Fogarty @ #15, maybe.

But all you did was list names, I asked you who would be as good or if not better than Kelly and Hopper. Rayner has potential but no way will L.Fogarty and Darcy will be unavailable so no use talking about it. In fact, chances are Rayner will be unavailable too. Hard to see anyone pushing those guys out from the top 3-4, they certainly won't be there at #10.

 

[katmanblue]

Everyone assumes that was an error - what he said would still make sense though. Means he was boasting about knowing shortcuts and having mad sick pilot skills to use them.

I know that too, but the first post was meant to be a quip. Having to explain it in detail wouldn't have had the effect i was going for.

I guess that ship has sailed.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Blue__Balls]

Drop #37 out of it and chuck Wilson in.

Hang on.

5 and 15 for Kelly, Hopper and Wilson?

I'm all for getting value, but that's just being silly. 5 is unders for Kelly, 15 is probably at the lower end of fair for Hopper....and you expect them to just toss in one of their best running defenders on top of that?

 

[Jimmae]

Hang on.

5 and 15 for Kelly, Hopper and Wilson?

I'm all for getting value, but that's just being silly. 5 is unders for Kelly, 15 is probably at the lower end of fair for Hopper....and you expect them to just toss in one of their best running defenders on top of that?

5 is almost too much for an uncontracted Kelly, while Hopper isn't worth 15. I've said this numerous times now.

Rayner won't be there at #5, D.Fogarty certainly won't be there at #10 unless he plays like garbage till the draft, L.Fogarty @ #15, maybe.

But all you did was list names, I asked you who would be as good or if not better than Kelly and Hopper. Rayner has potential but no way will L.Fogarty and Darcy will be unavailable so no use talking about it. In fact, chances are Rayner will be unavailable too. Hard to see anyone pushing those guys out from the top 3-4, they certainly won't be there at #10.

So far Fogarty is playing as a medium forward at the champs, so he's all set to drop. Rayner is a decent chance at 5 given Brander, LDU, Cerra and others.

I answered your question pretty succinctly I felt: name who we'd get at 5, 10 and 15 that are better than Kelly and Hopper. I reckon 2 great players and a good player is better than one borderline-elite player and a borderline-great player.

Hopper hasn't lived up to the hype yet, seems to be struggling with getting fit enough to impact at AFL level, and while I recognise that his heart condition wouldn't have helped, the talk was it was well in rear-view mirror by the time the JLT games rolled around.