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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

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dangerousdane said:
Repeating myself here but.

If this years draft is so bad then why didn't our master recruiter (SOS) trade our 2017 1st, last year for a extra 2016 1st?
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Takes two to tango - which club with a top 10 pick would have wanted to trade out of the 2016 first round?

Essendon had Pick 1, they weren't going to trade it for a future first.
GWS traded up to Pick 2 because they wanted Taranto.
Brisbane with Pick 3 can't afford to skip a draft.
Gold Coast had a few picks (ended up being 4, 7, 9 and 10) but went in with a strategy of bringing in a group of kids to keep together. Pick 10 was an Academy bid.
Freo wanted Logue and got him with Pick 8.

So even if SOS had wanted another 2016 first rounder, I'm not sure there would have been one available at the pointy end. And he certainly wouldn't have wanted to trade a top 5 pick this year for a pick in the late teens last year, no matter how good or bad each draft is supposed to be.
 
Blue__Balls said:
Takes two to tango - which club with a top 10 pick would have wanted to trade out of the 2016 first round?

Essendon had Pick 1, they weren't going to trade it for a future first.
GWS traded up to Pick 2 because they wanted Taranto.
Brisbane with Pick 3 can't afford to skip a draft.
Gold Coast had a few picks (ended up being 4, 7, 9 and 10) but went in with a strategy of bringing in a group of kids to keep together. Pick 10 was an Academy bid.
Freo wanted Logue and got him with Pick 8.

So even if SOS had wanted another 2016 first rounder, I'm not sure there would have been one available at the pointy end. And he certainly wouldn't have wanted to trade a top 5 pick this year for a pick in the late teens last year, no matter how good or bad each draft is supposed to be.
Click to expand...
Generally when people say its a bad draft they are talking about a lack of depth. SOS rightly predicted the good depth last year and traded in for three late picks. We know that was a fantastic result. He also traded out our second for this year as part of the Marchbank deal and maybe because he didn't think that there was a lot of quality on offer in 2017. Should always be quality at pick 3 or 4 no matter how much depth is in the draft. Now he just needs to determine whether to use it or trade it this year. We would be pretty happy that he kept it if the pick was the basis of a Kelly deal.
 

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Blue Pulse said:
Would Anthony Miles from the Tigs be worth a shot, 26 next year, not a bad midfielder who is being overlooked at the moment for of Prestia and Caddy? Had good numbers last season, out of contract next year.
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Was actually looking through other list today (yes, footy tragic). Think he would add some hardness, not the worst player going around
 
Blue Pulse said:
Would Anthony Miles from the Tigs be worth a shot, 26 next year, not a bad midfielder who is being overlooked at the moment for of Prestia and Caddy? Had good numbers last season, out of contract next year.
Click to expand...

Only as a DFA.
We won't be trading for 26 year olds.
 
Reflecting on yesterday.

We are lacking 3 quick skillful mids, 1 big bodied bull and a quick goal sneak.

Byrne is exactly the player we are missing in the backline though. As is Williamson, don't underestimate how much we've missed him recently.

7 players under 20 played yesterday though.. imagine when SPS, Cuners, Fish, Willo, Polson have played 40 games plus...

I'd be moving heaven and earth for Kelly, Hopper and Balic. Would be open to trading Weiters if it could help the cause. Very concerned with what I'm seeing but I'm confident he will work hard on his deficiencies.

2018 Team:

Byrne ASOS Plowman
Marchbank Jones Docherty
Williamson SPS Cuningham
Fisher Casboult Pickett
SOJ Curnow Wright

Foll: Kreuzer, Murphy, Cripps

Int: Simpson, Gibbs, Ed Curnow, Weiters

Imagine finding a way to procure Kelly, Hopper and a Balic type. Would ease the load on the young team above and push into finals contention very quickly.

Exciting times ahead.

Toddski
 
LordLucifer said:
Any player that makes the U/18 All-Australian team is a pretty fair chance of being picked up in the first round but what would the selectors of that team know anyway .........
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Not sure about that, LordyLucy...

The AA team is rated on performance, not on potential.

Stacks of U18 AA mids get plenty of the ball, but are slow and don't get drafted or get picked late as they will only ever be plodders at AFL level. Same goes for those that don't have great disposal.

Plenty of fwds and defenders get named U18 AA and don't go early, too. Like an infamous poster wanting tall KPPs; you could be U18 AA CHB but if you were 191cm you are unlikely going in the first round. Hell, Patrick Kerr was U18 FF and got picked #65 and there were doubts he'd ever play a single AFL game.
 
kjr8 said:
where did i say he had trouble "finding" the ball? I was critical of his handling of the ball in crucial (and costly) situations.. squirt handballs out of panic (recall an instance to lamb - hot potato style) still count as possessions.
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There were a couple of critical moments where he fumbled, but he was way down on previous form, including some crisp and clean gathers and intercepts with a quick handball out to smartly release another player.

Give credit where it's due: he created a lot more than he clangered.

EDIT: hoo boy I needed food
 
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Cripps17 said:
We pick up Kelly and I'd be pretty confident of playing finals next year. There's not a lot of teams that worry me moving forward - they're either middle of the road teams (e.g. Tigers/Eagles) or 'up and comers' that really don't scream huge threats (e.g. Demons/Saints).

We'll leap frog a lot with one more off-season.
Click to expand...

Still need a key forward and 3-4 more gun mids (the latter to replace Gibbs, Murph, E Curnow and Thomas over the next few years)

We simply lack the forward firepower needed to score enough to win matches.

We're 18 months into a 3 year total club reset. Only just past halfway. Backline is set, and we have some decent Half Forwards (SOSOS and Curnow) and a single Elite mid under 23 in Cripps. We need a Key Forward, and some elite young mids.

At least 2 drafts to go (this years and next years) and probably one more big draft after that in '19.

Patience. We're on the right track. The worst thing we can do is get ahead of ourselves.
 

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Malifice said:
Still need a key forward and 3-4 more gun mids (the latter to replace Gibbs, Murph, E Curnow and Thomas over the next few years)

We simply lack the forward firepower needed to score enough to win matches.

We're 18 months into a 3 year total club reset. Only just past halfway. Backline is set, and we have some decent Half Forwards (SOSOS and Curnow) and a single Elite mid under 23 in Cripps. We need a Key Forward, and some elite young mids.

At least 2 drafts to go (this years and next years) and probably one more big draft after that in '19.

Patience. We're on the right track. The worst thing we can do is get ahead of ourselves.
Click to expand...
Talking finals not premierships, the improvement since Round 1 has been immense, as it will be this time next year.

If we're talking premierships, I think we're every chance from 2019.
 
dangerousdane said:
Repeating myself here but.

If this years draft is so bad then why didn't our master recruiter (SOS) trade our 2017 1st, last year for a extra 2016 1st?
Click to expand...

He did trade our 2nd rounder in 2017 instead of from 2016 last year.

At the time I never thought it was a call on the two years' draft strength, but it might have been, at least partially. Wonder if there is/n't a prospect better than Fisher at our nominal 2nd pick this year.
 
Cripps17 said:
Talking finals not premierships, the improvement since Round 1 has been immense, as it will be this time next year.
Click to expand...

We havent been that far off this year (caveat being its been one heck of a weird year). But if we're being honest, we've also had a (relatively) great run with injuries, we're still 3rd last and a lot of the hard work has been done by Murphy, Kruezer, Gibbs, Simpson, Wright etc - all of whom are 28+

By the time the reset is complete and the kids have had a few years in their legs playing together (and you cant underestimate the value of gelling as a group, in addtion to getting games under your belt and physically filling out) those guys are going to have one foot (if not both feet) out the door.

If we're talking premierships, I think we're every chance from 2019.
Click to expand...

I would hope we would be in the eight by then, but thats about it. 2020 onwards is when we're in with a real crack.

We should be methodical and hit the draft hard this year and next year (as is the plan) and again in 2019 (filling gaps with F/A in '18 and '19).

We have at least 3-4 elite mids to go (and thats just to replace Gibbs, Murphy, Thomas, Simpson, Curnow), plus a 60+ goal KPF and a gun young ruck.
 

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ferrisb said:
Not sure about that, LordyLucy...

The AA team is rated on performance, not on potential.

Stacks of U18 AA mids get plenty of the ball, but are slow and don't get drafted or get picked late as they will only ever be plodders at AFL level. Same goes for those that don't have great disposal.

Plenty of fwds and defenders get named U18 AA and don't go early, too. Like an infamous poster wanting tall KPPs; you could be U18 AA CHB but if you were 191cm you are unlikely going in the first round. Hell, Patrick Kerr was U18 FF and got picked #65 and there were doubts he'd ever play a single AFL game.
Click to expand...

I reckon Hughes often just looked at the u18 AA team and thought yep that'll do.

Still remember how excited we were getting the 2 AA defenders in Watson and McCarthy
 
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