Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Malifice]

So are you sure he is not in the top 10 paid players at our club?

Absolutely sure. We signed him onto a 1 year deal last year for peanuts.

 

[DangerousD]

He is restrcited

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

There is a criteria, based on number of year's service and when they come out of contract

Unrestricted, restricted only applies to the top earners at any club.

 

[ferrisb]

FA simplified....

All players are restricted at 8, unrestricted at 10

Except that's wrong, sorry FB.

And part of what is causing the confusion.

 

[DangerousD]

If you both gain a free agent (for example we snare Martin), and lose a player to free agency (for example Casboult leaves), the compo cancels out (you get no draft picks). This happend to us when we lost Betts to free agency, and also gained Thomas as a free agent in the same year.

This is slightly not true.
We received nothing from the AFL when Betts left as they were judged to be a fair replacement.

If the tigs lose Martin and gain Cas Thor compo is diminished but not entirely removed.

It is written somewhere.

If the tigers lost Dusty (band 1) and get Cas (band 3-4) how do they lose their compensation.

 

[Malifice]

Tell you what, if we dont trade Gibbs this year to Adelaide I'll be furious.

They look to be getting in a mid 1st rounder for Lever and another one for McGovern (giving them three mid to late 1sts from 10-18).

I'm sure we could prise two of those mid to late 1sts for Gibbs and a later pick/ exchange (our third at pick 38 plus a swap of our 4th in their favor).

Would leave us in a fantastic postion with picks (say) 3, 11, 18 (but no second or third rounder).

Casboult leaves and we should be able to swing Band 3 compo (pick 21) to make up for the loss of a 2nd. Wost case it would be Band 4 (pick 36) although at that price point, I would hope we matched and sweet talked him into staying. In any event comp for him leaving would make up for a lack of a 2nd/ 3rd rounder.

Still reckon we need to tip more fuel on the fire and improve our draft position even more. I cant think of much else we have to trade/ let go after Gibbs/ Casboult. Kruezer is a no-no for mine (no young back ups coming through and it would leave Phillips as our sole ruck, particularly if Cas leaves as a free agent).

There really isnt anyone else that would garner a nibble that we could afford to let go.

 

[Malifice]

This is slightly not true.
We received nothing from the AFL when Betts left as they were judged to be a fair replacement.

If the tigs lose Martin and gain Cas Thor compo is diminished but not entirely removed.

It is written somewhere.

If the tigers lost Dusty (band 1) and get Cas (band 3-4) how do they lose their compensation.

They get nothing.

They would either trade for Cas (to keep the Dusty compo) or match Dustys offer in order to force whomever wanted him to trade (and get Cas for free).

 

[The Dominator7]

He is restrcited

http://www.afl.com.au/afl-hq/the-afl-explained/free-agency

There is a criteria, based on number of year's service and when they come out of contract

Hey Arrow, just pointing out something from the link you kindly provided. If I'm reading it correctly it seems that Levi falls into 1 of 2 categories.

1) RFA - If you have served the 8 years and are in the the clubs top 25% of earners then you are a RFA and club has right of offer etc

2) UFA - if you have served your 8 years and are not in the clubs top 25% of earners then you are a unrestricted

So it seems to me that it all comes down to where he sits on the $$ list as to his status....is he paid in the top 9-10 players??

 

[ferrisb]

They look to be getting in a mid 1st rounder for Lever and another one for McGovern (giving them three mid to late 1sts from 10-18).

I'm sure we could prise two of those mid to late 1sts for Gibbs and a later pick/ exchange (our third at pick 38 plus a swap of our 4th in their favor).

If I was an Adelaide supporter and saw my team effectively swap Lever and McGovern for Gibbs, I would deadset lose my shit.

And no late pick steak knives is going to make me move back from the ledge either...

 

[ferrisb]

They get nothing.

They would either trade for Cas (to keep the Dusty compo) or match Dustys offer in order to force whomever wanted him to trade (and get Cas for free).

I'm with dangerousdane on this one, Mal.

You lose a top FA and recruit a crappy FA and your compo gets reduced, not eliminated. Basically, AFL looks at NET FA movements.

But yes, in this situation Richmond would likely be better off trading for Cas or forcing a Martin trade.

 

[Wickzki]

Trigg is saying all of the right things as a club official. They're not going to come out and say that Gibbs would be explored as that reduces the player's value. You say that Bryce is having a career year, he's enjoying his football and that the perceived problems have been diminished. Trigg is ticking every box.

 

[Arr0w]

Hey Arrow, just pointing out something from the link you kindly provided. If I'm reading it correctly it seems that Levi falls into 1 of 2 categories.

1) RFA - If you have served the 8 years and are in the the clubs top 25% of earners then you are a RFA and club has right of offer etc

2) UFA - if you have served your 8 years and are not in the clubs top 25% of earners then you are a unrestricted

So it seems to me that it all comes down to where he sits on the $$ list as to his status....is he paid in the top 9-10 players??

As ferrisb pointed out, the AFL would have all the player contracts, so it looks like he sits outside the top 10.

Now I am really interested who is our top 10 earners. I could confidently name 5, but beyond that it would be a guess. Even with reports that Gibbs's contract was front-end loaded, thought he would be outside top 10 this year too

 

[Malifice]

If I was an Adelaide supporter and saw my team effectively swap Lever and McGovern for Gibbs, I would deadset lose my shit.

And no late pick steak knives is going to make me move back from the ledge either...

I'm assuming the Crows get pick upgrades from the Eagles and (wherever Lever goes) as well.

And they don't lose both picks. They lose pick 18 and one of them (and get one back in return).

They can retain a top 10 pick for Lever and trade their own pick 18 and the McGovern pick (12?) for Gibbs and 39 (plus a few later pick upgrades in their favor).

 

[ShanDog]

If i could give people 2 pieces of life advice, they would be:

1) Don't pee into the wind.

2) Don't listen to a word professional clickbait artists like Maclure, Stevens, Browne, Cornes etc say. They know nothing.

Slight amendment to number one: add 'or while sneezing'. Messy stuff.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

As ferrisb pointed out, the AFL would have all the player contracts, so it looks like he sits outside the top 10.

Now I am really interested who is our top 10 earners. I could confidently name 5, but beyond that it would be a guess. Even with reports that Gibbs's contract was front-end loaded, thought he would be outside top 10 this year too

Wouldnt be surprised if a few of the older blokes like Armfield and Rowe were sitting in the top 10

 

[Blue Pulse]

Free agency explained:

Unrestricted free agents can sign a contract with whatever club they choose. They are 'unrestricted' in where they go.

Restricted free agents can also choose to move to a different club of choice, but if their current club matches the contract offer, they must stay at their current club (or enter the PSD or the ND).

How do you become a free agent:

After 8 years at 1 club, you become a free agent. If you are not in the top 25 percent paid players at that club you become an unrestricted free agent (no matching). If you are in the top 25 percent (top 9 or so paid players at the club), you instead become a restricted free agent (club can match).

If you do 10 years at 1 club then you now become an unrestricted F/A regardless of what your club pays you.

Dustin martin and Fyfe have both done 8 years at their clubs (but are in the top 25 percent earners at their clubs) so both are 'restricted' free agents. Richmond and Freo can both match any offers.

Note that Danger was also 'restricted' as he had only done 8 years, and was a top 25 percent paid player at the Crows. If you recall, Adelaide matched Geelongs offer (forcing Geelong to trade to get him).

Casboult has also done 8 years service with us, but he is not one of our 'top 9 paid players' so he is 'unrestricted' and we cannot match the offer and force him to stay. If he chooses to leave, he leaves.

Compensation

All clubs that lose a player to free agency are compensated by the AFL with a draft pick calcuated according to a super secret formula and allocated into 'Bands'. Band 1 gets you a 1st round pick after your own 1st rounder (but you would need to be in the top 5 percent of all paid players to get that compo). Band 2 is at the end of the 1st round (pick 19). Band 3 is after your 2nd round pick. Band 4 is at the end of the second round (pick 37) and so forth.

If you both gain a free agent (for example we snare Martin), and lose a player to free agency (for example Casboult leaves), the compo cancels out (you get no draft picks). This happend to us when we lost Betts to free agency, and also gained Thomas as a free agent in the same year.

Going forward

Finally; this is all about to change thanks to the new AFLPA/ AFL EBA. The AFLPA are looking to bring free agency qualification down to 6 years, and to bring in a rule of 'Once a free agent; always a free agent' so basically after 6 years in the game, players are free to go wherever they want.

The EBA allowed some future flexibiity on the parties to continue to hash out the new F/A rules, so we wont know the 'new' rules till next year (and they wont kick in this year in any event).

Clear as

 

[JustaBattler]

Tell you what, if we dont trade Gibbs this year to Adelaide I'll be furious.

They look to be getting in a mid 1st rounder for Lever and another one for McGovern (giving them three mid to late 1sts from 10-18).

I'm sure we could prise two of those mid to late 1sts for Gibbs and a later pick/ exchange (our third at pick 38 plus a swap of our 4th in their favor).

Would leave us in a fantastic postion with picks (say) 3, 11, 18 (but no second or third rounder).

Casboult leaves and we should be able to swing Band 3 compo (pick 21) to make up for the loss of a 2nd. Wost case it would be Band 4 (pick 36) although at that price point, I would hope we matched and sweet talked him into staying. In any event comp for him leaving would make up for a lack of a 2nd/ 3rd rounder.

Still reckon we need to tip more fuel on the fire and improve our draft position even more. I cant think of much else we have to trade/ let go after Gibbs/ Casboult. Kruezer is a no-no for mine (no young back ups coming through and it would leave Phillips as our sole ruck, particularly if Cas leaves as a free agent).

There really isn't anyone else that would garner a nibble that we could afford to let go.

You were BIG on trading Kreuzer last year - because he was cooked and the right call was to get something - yeah? and you didn't like it much when people suggested that Kreuzer was a valuable Carlton player.

I'll tell you what - Casboult is a valuable player for Carlton this year and will get better when there is a decent second tall running around taking some pressure off him - as has been shown with Charlie in recent times and hopefully Harry in future- but no guarantees. I don't think Carlton will be keen to see Casboult go - the only way he goes is if some other team pay significant overs. My tip? SOS will give him a 2 year extension on around 400K and Casboult will take it.

Gibbs is the only senior trade bait on the table - because he wants to go back to Adelaide- forget the wife needs support BS, she knew who she was marrying where he was playing and what his contract terms with Carlton were - before they had their baby. SOS will get a fair deal from the Crows - hopefully unfair to them.

Given his form this year -I'll be sorry to see him go he is playing AA quality football for 2 quarters a game this year - but he wants out.

 

[Malifice]

You were BIG on trading Kreuzer last year - because he was cooked and the right call was to get something - yeah?

Nope. I was big on trading Gibbs and Touhy. All year.

Kruezer was third on my list and I was reluctant to entertain any but the best of offers as he is vital to us structually. After him we have Phillips, who has done little to impress, and Korcheck who it looks like wont make it.

I never claimed he was 'cooked'. Ever. I was one of his biggest advocates in fact. I love the big guy.

and you didn't like it much when people suggested that Kreuzer was a valuable Carlton player.

Nope. Youre thinking of someone else.

I'll tell you what - Casboult is a valuable player for Carlton this year and will get better when there is a decent second tall running around taking some pressure off him - as has been shown with Charlie in recent times and hopefully Harry in future- but no guarantees. I don't think Carlton will be keen to see Casboult go - the only way he goes is if some other team pay significant overs. My tip? SOS will give him a 2 year extension on around 400K and Casboult will take it.

I agree he is an important player to us stucturally, not least for his extra work in the ruck, and the fact we lack a KPF.

Remember - I am one of the biggest advocates of getting in a young gun KPF (via a trade or draft). To the point I cop a lot of shit for this argument. I would hope we would match any offer short of Band 3 compo (and entice him to take it, because he doesnt have to). If the compo is Band 3 or better, we take it and run.

Levi turns 28 next year. He's a placeholder that enables us to play McKay in the 2's and who buys us time to look for a gun young KPF who will be part of our finals push in 2020 onwards. Thats his role for the team. It would only be matched by Band 3 compo (pick 21 at present) or better.

We need experience around the place so the kids dont get smashed. But we also need to get into the pointy end of the draft to get more kids. Its a balancing act.

As long as we are on board with 2020 onwards being the time things matter (and the years before then simply being getting the kids in and playing them and getting them to gel) then For a pick of around 20 or less, I would be happy letting him go.

 

[cookie monster]

Trigg is saying all of the right things as a club official. They're not going to come out and say that Gibbs would be explored as that reduces the player's value. You say that Bryce is having a career year, he's enjoying his football and that the perceived problems have been diminished. Trigg is ticking every box.

Agree

How refreshing to have club officials that don't tell the world what we're scheming before it actually happens.

Actually, McKay is still there isn't he...

 

[Stamos]

So are you sure he is not in the top 10 paid players at our club?

He signed a small 1 year deal last year when there were no other takers. That B&F list is missing Murphy, Thomas and Jones all definitely on more than him, probably Palmer, Jaksch, maybe Smedts, Lamb.

 

[Madblue]

Tell you what, if we dont trade Gibbs this year to Adelaide I'll be furious.

They look to be getting in a mid 1st rounder for Lever and another one for McGovern (giving them three mid to late 1sts from 10-18).

I'm sure we could prise two of those mid to late 1sts for Gibbs and a later pick/ exchange (our third at pick 38 plus a swap of our 4th in their favor).

Would leave us in a fantastic postion with picks (say) 3, 11, 18 (but no second or third rounder).

Casboult leaves and we should be able to swing Band 3 compo (pick 21) to make up for the loss of a 2nd. Wost case it would be Band 4 (pick 36) although at that price point, I would hope we matched and sweet talked him into staying. In any event comp for him leaving would make up for a lack of a 2nd/ 3rd rounder.

Still reckon we need to tip more fuel on the fire and improve our draft position even more. I cant think of much else we have to trade/ let go after Gibbs/ Casboult. Kruezer is a no-no for mine (no young back ups coming through and it would leave Phillips as our sole ruck, particularly if Cas leaves as a free agent).

There really isnt anyone else that would garner a nibble that we could afford to let go.

Murphy....

 

[drewmont4]

Should we just do a straight swap Gibbs for Lever

 

[Keyza]

As ferrisb pointed out, the AFL would have all the player contracts, so it looks like he sits outside the top 10.

Now I am really interested who is our top 10 earners. I could confidently name 5, but beyond that it would be a guess. Even with reports that Gibbs's contract was front-end loaded, thought he would be outside top 10 this year too

At a guess the top 10 earners for this year would be;
Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson, Cripps, Docherty, Daisy, Jones. The others would be guesses. Maybe Kreuzer, although his was incentive based. Palmer maybe and Curnow.
Pretty sure Casboult was signed on minimal money.

 

[Keyza]

Should we just do a straight swap Gibbs for Lever

No.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Should we just do a straight swap Gibbs for Lever

Crows wouldn't do that.

 

[DirkDiggler]

Would pick 3 get us over the line for say Whitfield and Hopper or would we have to throw in what we get from the Levi compo? Sometimes I need take off my Carlton layered glasses when talking trade scenarios.

As much as I like the thought of trading for Kelly, competition from the Kangas and Saints will push the asking price too high. Whitfield and Hopper would both address two key list management priorities in my opinion