Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Keyza]

Correct me if I'm wrong but that's not how it works. If a free agent acquisition is a delisted FA then there is no loss of compensation because the player has been delisted by his original club.

So the latest rumor doing the rounds has Mitch McGovern going to Collingwood, Gibbs to Adelaide and the Pies first (2017) and Crows second (2018) coming to Carlton. Personally, I thought Mitch was headed home to Western Australia so this Collingwood stuff is out of nowhere.

A pick around 7-8 and a pick in the mid 30's is not enough for Gibbs.

 

[Mr_Plow]

A pick around 7-8 and a pick in the mid 30's is not enough for Gibbs.

It's a decent deal tbh, the Collingwood 1st is extremely enticing.

Ideally we'd get a mid 2nd rather than a late 2nd.

 

[Red Bull]

A pick around 7-8 and a pick in the mid 30's is not enough for Gibbs.

You're joking !!
Silvagni would pocket that in a flash and be off to the races .

 

[teagueyubeauty]

A pick around 7-8 and a pick in the mid 30's is not enough for Gibbs.

I'd say that's about right, and that's me wearing navy blue goggles. In my eyes, deal!!

 

[DangerousD]

Don't bank Gibbs trade yet - for starters if crows win flag they will have no interest

Do not understand this logic at all.

If the Crows win the flag and their premiership window is open, what do you think appeals more?

Bryce Gibbs or a speculative draft pick in the teens?

A flag will make the Crows desperate for Gibbs.

 

[HARKER]

Do not understand this logic at all.

If the Crows win the flag and their premiership window is open, what do you think appeals more?

Bryce Gibbs or a speculative draft pick in the teens?

A flag will make the Crows desperate for Gibbs.

That makes two of us for starters.

Win one flag and put the cue in the rack? No way. Premierships are too hard to get.
Win one flag and sell what you can to make it two flags. Makes much more sense.

 

[HARKER]

If Lever puts his hand up and asks for a trade to the kennel (looks very likely) then we get involved. We send Gibbs to the Crows, they send Lever to the Dogs, and we take Pick 10 and Redpath off the Dogs.

The Crows would surely prefer Gibbs to pick 10, and they have no interest in Redpath.

You could mount a good argument for that being fair and on the mark.......I'm just not feeling it.

Reckon we may do just a little bit better.

 

[btdg]

I'm getting increasingly concerned about the upcoming draft and trade period. Its becoming more and more clear that we have 12-14 players we can count on going forward - which means we need to find 8-10 guys soon, just to stay competitive as older guys get older... and yet, we have at this stage 1x decent pick in a weak draft (pick 1-3) with our second round pick already gone and anything round 3+ highly speculative at best. Historically, we've suffered far too much from years where we came away from the draft with nothing, yet we're one failed high draft pick from that being the case this year.

To get more trade currency, we have 2 choices. Trade out or allow older guys to leave in FA (Gibbs and Casboult are the oft-mentioned names) which might give us 2-3 'live' picks, but will likely leave us uncompetitive on-field next year. Counting on a FA pick for Casboult also prevents us from signing free agents outselves. Or, we trade young players (ie; throw up Weitering while he has currency to try and cash in on our surplus of young KP defenders), which risks giving our young talented guys the idea that we're willing to trade away young players... and so they might consider walking.

It appears that next year we have 3x father son. Our best bet seems to be to roll it all back again as much as possible, and do what we can to hit the 2018 draft and FA period, really, really hard.

So the plan, in my view, has to be something like:
2017: Either keep pick 1-3 and draft a midfielder or trade for Kelly (if we can get him for this alone). Allow Casboult to leave in FA, take a 2nd or 3rd round round compo pick, try to flip for 2 x 2018 picks (a 2nd and a 3rd?). Try to flip some older, surplus guys for 2018 picks - options might be Wright (future 3rd?) and Plowman (future 2nd to the right taker?). Take some salary dump trades (ie; Tippet as a Casboult replacement). Net result: 1 x gun midfielder + Tippet + 3x 2nd/3rd picks for 2018 + whatever we can take a chance on late in the draft, replacing Casboult and one of Plowman/Wright. Delistings and retirements - fairly minimal. Only the obvious (Armfield, etc.)

2018: Trade Gibbs for a late first (in the last year of his contract). Simpson retires, maybe move on Thomas. Hit FA hard (not sure who is availalbe, but target the best mid and antoher useful player). By my count, we'll have pick 1-3, plus 5 picks in the 15-30 range. Assume 1 of these picks is used for Ben Silvagni and we get our other 2 FS with late picks. We can add FA mid + another FA + pick 1 + 3 x F/S + 4 picks in the 15-30 range = 10 players.

Assume then we've added 2x top 3 picks to the midfield + at least one good older midfielder through FA. We'll have replaced Murphy/Gibbs, and have roughly 20 prospects aged 25 and under. We'll still be a bottom 3 team, but have the framework of something at least.

 

[DangerousD]

Lol! You have us picking up no less than 5 DFA's, and you have us losing Casboult as a F/A (meaning we wont get any compo because we are getting F/A in).

So lose the F/A compo from Cas. Which means lose Hopper.

We're also not getting 2 x first round picks from the Crows and a fringe player. Were not getting picks in the 30's for Boeky and Graham either.

We follow your list management strategy, and we're redrafting Army (whom I love, but is done), losing Cas for nothing and have 5 x DFA's and a fringe player clogging our list.

Youre making changes to the list just to make changes to the list, not to improve it.

DFA"s don't reduce FA compensation

 

[Wickzki]

A pick around 7-8 and a pick in the mid 30's is not enough for Gibbs.

I'm not so sure. That pick could be our way of keeping our top 2-3 pick and acquiring Josh Kelly.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Seeing Casboult's name in the same sentence with 2 million dollars makes me want to shoot myself.

 

[zeeCFC]

Despite his crappy game today I would still take Charlie Cameron and pick 17ish and run for Gibbs.

I'd offer Levi two years at 600k and keep him.

Gibbs to Crows for Pick 16ish and Cameron
Pick 2 and 2018 1st for Kelly, Dev Smith and St Kilda's 2nd rounder (traded last yr - around pick 26)

IN: Cameron, Kelly, Dev Smith
OUT: Gibbs, pick 2, 2018 1st

Draft: 16, 26, 38

Plowman, Jones, Weitering
Byrne, Marchbank, Docherty
Murphy, Kelly, Petrevski-Seton
Smith, Curnow, Cameron
Casboult, McKay, Silvagni
Kreuzer, Cripps, Curnow
Wright, Simpson, Cuningham, Fisher

Williamson, Macreadie, Pickett, Thomas, ASOS, Phillips, Pick 16, possibly Balic

 

[LordLucifer]

Lol! You have us picking up no less than 5 DFA's, and you have us losing Casboult as a F/A (meaning we wont get any compo because we are getting F/A in).

So lose the F/A compo from Cas. Which means lose Hopper.

We're also not getting 2 x first round picks from the Crows and a fringe player. Were not getting picks in the 30's for Boeky and Graham either.

We follow your list management strategy, and we're redrafting Army (whom I love, but is done), losing Cas for nothing and have 5 x DFA's and a fringe player clogging our list.

Youre making changes to the list just to make changes to the list, not to improve it.

As a moderator, I'd expect you of all people to read a few of the posts prior to see why a post may be going up before making a comment or judgement call.

But no, you want to grandstand once again.

 

[HARKER]

Gibbs to Crows for Pick 16ish and Cameron
Pick 2 and 2018 1st for Kelly, Dev Smith and St Kilda's 2nd rounder (traded last yr - around pick 26)

IN: Cameron, Kelly, Dev Smith
OUT: Gibbs, pick 2, 2018 1st

Draft: 16, 26, 38

Plowman, Jones, Weitering
Byrne, Marchbank, Docherty
Murphy, Kelly, Petrevski-Seton
Smith, Curnow, Cameron
Casboult, McKay, Silvagni
Kreuzer, Cripps, Curnow
Wright, Simpson, Cuningham, Fisher

Williamson, Macreadie, Pickett, Thomas, ASOS, Phillips, Pick 16, possibly Balic

Just don't see a situation where we'd relinquish 2 first rounders.....and likely high first rounders.

It may happen, but can't see the board signing off on it.

 

[HARKER]

As a moderator, I'd expect you of all people to read a few of the posts prior to see why a post may be going up before making a comment or judgement call.

But no, you want to grandstand once again.

Talk ladies and Mal may grandstand, but not football.
Fired the wrong shot this time LL.

 

[HBF]

Despite his crappy game today I would still take Charlie Cameron and pick 17ish and run for Gibbs.

I'd offer Levi two years at 600k and keep him.

Gibbs to Crows for Pick 16ish and Cameron
Pick 2 and 2018 1st for Kelly, Dev Smith and St Kilda's 2nd rounder (traded last yr - around pick 26)

IN: Cameron, Kelly, Dev Smith
OUT: Gibbs, pick 2, 2018 1st

Draft: 16, 26, 38

Plowman, Jones, Weitering
Byrne, Marchbank, Docherty
Murphy, Kelly, Petrevski-Seton
Smith, Curnow, Cameron
Casboult, McKay, Silvagni
Kreuzer, Cripps, Curnow
Wright, Simpson, Cuningham, Fisher

Williamson, Macreadie, Pickett, Thomas, ASOS, Phillips, Pick 16, possibly Balic

Pretty sure Cameron is Brisbane bound.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Bucks, Graham,Boeky, are not up to it. They are good VFL players.

Halleluiah!

This is what is killing us.

I know we can't replace everyone at once but you just can't keep players of this standard on a list for as long as we have.

I'm an annoying poster on this subject; I apologize but when I see these names being defended for depth or not getting a prolonged stretch of games I dry retch. It's Like a red rag to a bull.

I trust SOS will trade up on some of these players but I've become very impatient however I do understand the reasons why it isn't straight forward.

Note: It's not the players fault, they are just following a passion (I hope) and trying to earn a living.

I think I'm going to watch Moneyball tonight - I've never seen it.

 

[Jimmae]

Gibbs will be the most valuable trade commodity we've put up since Josh Kennedy, and people are talking about him like he's worth a mid-1st and change.

He's worth almost every bit Kelly's worth...

 

[LordLucifer]

Talk ladies and Mal may grandstand, but not football.
Fired the wrong shot this time LL.

And there I was expecting you to point out that you issued a challenge for me and anyone else who wanted to try it which resulted in that kooky plan of mine.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Except when paying for Gibbs you are buying 2-3 prime years with some good footy post 31-32.

You're buying 8 prime elite-level years from Kelly.

Wouldn't say almost Kelly's worth, probably half.

 

[HARKER]

And there I was expecting you to point out that you issued a challenge for me and anyone else who wanted to try it which resulted in that kooky plan of mine.

Right. What was your plan again?

Good thing we've got plenty to discuss, as we haven't signed on luminaries ala Davies, Ellard and Joseph on two year contracts, as we dis some years ago.

 

[Soapy V]

Despite his crappy game today I would still take Charlie Cameron and pick 17ish and run for Gibbs.

I'd offer Levi two years at 600k and keep him.

Back to the bad old days. Stupid contracts for average players

 

[Soapy V]

Except when paying for Gibbs you are buying 2-3 prime years with some good footy post 31-32.

You're buying 8 prime elite-level years from Kelly.

Wouldn't say almost Kelly's worth, probably half.

Yep. At this stage Kelly is worth a heck of a lot more than Gibbs

 

[Jimmae]

Except when paying for Gibbs you are buying 2-3 prime years with some good footy post 31-32.

You're buying 8 prime elite-level years from Kelly.

Wouldn't say almost Kelly's worth, probably half.

You don't discount them arithmetically when they're at the skinny end of the bell curve...

And if they're falling off a cliff at 30, then Kelly has 7 years, but I would suggest Gibbs' game is less reliant on his pace than Kelly's.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

You're joking !!
Silvagni would pocket that in a flash and be off to the races .

So long as he backs Beetle Bomb we are laughing all the way to the bank.