Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Mr_Plow]

You don't discount them arithmetically when they're at the skinny end of the bell curve...

And if they're falling off a cliff at 30, then Kelly has 7 years, but I would suggest Gibbs' game is less reliant on his pace than Kelly's.

Gibbs will still be quite effective at 32.

Which is why I've given him another 3 prime elite-level years (29, 30 and 31).

Kelly's contested game is ahead of Gibbs' at the same age.

 

[CRIPPS]

Gibbs will be the most valuable trade commodity we've put up since Josh Kennedy, and people are talking about him like he's worth a mid-1st and change.

He's worth almost every bit Kelly's worth...

Yep. At this stage Kelly is worth a heck of a lot more than Gibbs

Except when paying for Gibbs you are buying 2-3 prime years with some good footy post 31-32.

You're buying 8 prime elite-level years from Kelly.

Wouldn't say almost Kelly's worth, probably half.

SOS must trade Gibbs, only player with currency and somehow get Kelly to the blues!

 

[Iamcarlton]

Gibbs will be the most valuable trade commodity we've put up since Josh Kennedy, and people are talking about him like he's worth a mid-1st and change.

He's worth almost every bit Kelly's worth...

Jimmae Kennedy was seen as steak knives in the Judd trade .

 

[Jimmae]

Jimmae Kennedy was seen as steak knives in the Judd trade .

We screwed ourselves in that trade because we wanted to keep pick 1 (understandably), but at least it was a weak draft (despite Dangerfield, Cyril, Taylor, Rance, Ward and Wood being taken).

Kennedy was more than steak knives, but he was a big price to pay. Had that happened in this era (assuming Judd wasn't an eligible free agent), they would have taken 3, Kennedy, and then given us something back.

We paid way too much under the circumstances, and worse still in hindsight.

Gibbs will still be quite effective at 32.

Which is why I've given him another 3 prime elite-level years (29, 30 and 31).

Kelly's contested game is ahead of Gibbs' at the same age.

Gibbs has 4 elite years left in him, and will probably play until he's 34-35 in a variety of roles.

Kelly has 6, possibly 7 elite years left, and he might be done at 31 or 32. That's the reality of the two different game styles.

 

[DangerousD]

Halleluiah!

This is what is killing us.

I know we can't replace everyone at once but you just can't keep players of this standard on a list for as long as we have.

I'm an annoying poster on this subject; I apologize but when I see these names being defended for depth or not getting a prolonged stretch of games I dry retch. It's Like a red rag to a bull.

I trust SOS will trade up on some of these players but I've become very impatient however I do understand the reasons why it isn't straight forward.

Note: It's not the players fault, they are just following a passion (I hope) and trying to earn a living.

I think I'm going to watch Moneyball tonight - I've never seen it.

The bad thing is that two of those names are ahead of 4-5 other guys on our list.

 

[DangerousD]

Kelly has 6, possibly 7 elite years left, and he might be done at 31 or 32. That's the reality of the two different game styles.

Lots of good players change the way they play or have their roles changed later in their career so that they can continue for longer. No reason why Kelly couldn't do the same.

 

[AB_Blue]

I think if we land pick 2 GWS would climb all over us for it considering they don't have a pick in the first round.

If Kelly decides to nominate us then that's all we have to offer

It may kill any future GWS trading for a while but that may not be such a bad thing either. Take it or leave it fellas......

Gibbs we can expect a top 10 pick for....go find us one crows!

The fact Slone is being tagged every week only rises Gibbs currency IMO. You can't tag both!

 

[Jimmae]

Lots of good players change the way they play or have their roles changed later in their career so that they can continue for longer. No reason why Kelly couldn't do the same.

They're usually not quick players who treat their bodies like battering rams.

Ablett has always been more of a contested player with a good first step once he worked himself into the midfield at Geelong. He's also meticulous about his preparation.

Judd was too, but he didn't go the distance. Some guys get lucky with how their body holds up, others choose not to risk rolling the dice with their quality of life.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Compo is also based on the player's age. Vickery was 26 and Casboult is 28.

Sure. Vickery wasn't offered 4 years though.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

5 years is about right. Have to delist players like, Lamb, Kerridge, White, Graham, etc, they are not AFL standard. Without Cripps, our midfield is no good!
There's no easy fix with this rebuild and it will take at least 5 years before we are a good side.

Kerridge contracted for 2018.
Several to delist before Graham and Lamb IMO ... Jaksch, Gorringe, Buckley, Armfield and Sumner for starters, Boekhorst too, White will probably retire ...

 

[CRIPPS]

Kerridge contracted for 2018.
Several to delist before Graham and Lamb IMO ... Jaksch, Gorringe, Buckley, Armfield and Sumner for starters, Boekhorst too, White will probably retire ...

The club can't afford to keep VFL players on the list, if we want to improve. All those players you listed should be delisted.
Kerridge tries hard, but not AFL standard, the crows would have kept him if he was any good.
Another 5 years of proper recruiting by SOS, should bring plenty of talent to the club= Blues Premiers!

 

[F_therest]

The club can't afford to keep VFL players on the list, if we want to improve. All those players you listed should be delisted.
Kerridge tries hard, but not AFL standard, the crows would have kept him if he was any good.
Another 5 years of proper recruiting by SOS, should bring plenty of talent to the club= Blues Premiers!

Um you can't just delist like 15 players in 1 year when we don't have the picks/currency to replace them with quality.

Lamb will 100% be on the list next year as he should be, and i'd bet Graham will be too as depth at least for another year.

 

[Alice]

They're usually not quick players who treat their bodies like battering rams.

Ablett has always been more of a contested player with a good first step once he worked himself into the midfield at Geelong. He's also meticulous about his preparation.

Judd was too, but he didn't go the distance. Some guys get lucky with how their body holds up, others choose not to risk rolling the dice with their quality of life.

Not so much about luck. Ablett has not had to play as the prime extractor role as Judd did from 2007. His body was battered and we will do the same to Cripps if he doesn't get help soon. Ablett has had help at GC from Swallow, Hall, Riscitelli and others

 

[GapInIkonPark]

The club can't afford to keep VFL players on the list, if we want to improve. All those players you listed should be delisted.
Kerridge tries hard, but not AFL standard, the crows would have kept him if he was any good.
Another 5 years of proper recruiting by SOS, should bring plenty of talent to the club= Blues Premiers!

The debate is not about whether we should delist them, but rather, who do we keep on the list for another year.
It's easy to come up with 12+ names to delist, it's not so easy to come up with 12+ replacements.
So after this season, as I said, I think Armfield and White will retire. I think Buckley, Jaksch, Gorringe, Sumner and Armfield are the first 5 to delist IMO, and the next 4 are Boekhorst, Graham, Rowe and White. I don't think all 9 will go this year though.
Kerridge, Palmer and Smedts contracted for 2018.
As for Rookie listed players, I would delist JGM, Korcheck and Gallucci.

 

[Jimmae]

Not so much about luck. Ablett has not had to play as the prime extractor role as Judd did from 2007. His body was battered and we will do the same to Cripps if he doesn't get help soon. Ablett has had help at GC from Swallow, Hall, Riscitelli and others

It all adds up.

In a contact sport, if you're colliding faster, more often and through greater application of force, it's going to take its toll. If you're on the lighter side there's an increased probability of issues there too.

When you're at the level of quality of Ablett, Judd and now (perhaps) Kelly, you tend to get more looks from your team mates and the opposition, and you also tend to see opportunities earlier through your various talents. Protection can only do so much.

What Judd and now Cripps needed was inside support to draw attention away, rather than a strong man just to intercept. Judd had that briefly with McLean, and a little bit from Ed and Carrazzo, but Cripps was probably the guy who could have really unlocked things. Pity their careers barely overlapped.

Hopper might be the guy.

 

[true blue19]

The debate is not about whether we should delist them, but rather, who do we keep on the list for another year.
It's easy to come up with 12+ names to delist, it's not so easy to come up with 12+ replacements.
So after this season, as I said, I think Armfield and White will retire. I think Buckley, Jaksch, Gorringe, Sumner and Armfield are the first 5 to delist IMO, and the next 4 are Boekhorst, Graham, Rowe and White. I don't think all 9 will go this year though.
Kerridge, Palmer and Smedts contracted for 2018.
As for Rookie listed players, I would delist JGM, Korcheck and Gallucci.

I look at our main list and I don't really care who goes (I am disappointed that Buckley and Jaksch haven't found there place.) For me the rookie list is far more interesting.

A.Silvagni- must stay

Sheehan- to many injuries

Korcheck- not up to it

Gallucci- is the type of player we need in our forward line, has speed, dangerous around goals and has tackling pressure. Must keep for 1 more year.

LeBois- in the same boat as Gallucci. The two of them and Pickett would be dangerous if the all can get to AFL standards.

Glass-McCasker- Rowe or Jone have played as the number one lock down defender. For me it looks like JGM is there long term replacement. All our other tall defenders are more intercept defender. We need JGM to add size and strength over the next 2 year to replace Rowe/Jones. We need to play the long game with him, he is the key to our defence to win flags.

 

[ShanDog]

Not so much about luck. Ablett has not had to play as the prime extractor role as Judd did from 2007. His body was battered and we will do the same to Cripps if he doesn't get help soon. Ablett has had help at GC from Swallow, Hall, Riscitelli and others

And when they've been light-on for mids helping him out, he's had injury issues too. Could be coincidental but he can't shoulder the same load as his heyday.

 

[My name geoff]

If there's one thing I love, it's a list hypothetical..

Gibbs > pick 16, pick 34
Weitering, Pick 16 > Whitfield, Hopper, Griffen
Pick 1 > Kelly
Casboult > Castagna
Murphy > Sam Reid
Pick 54 > Balic
Pick 34 > Redpath

FA: Dureya

Out: Murphy, Gibbs, Weitering, Casboult, Pick 1, pick 54

In: Whitfield, Hopper, Kelly, Castagna, Reid, Redpath, Dureya, Balic, Griffen

Dureya Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Macreadie
Whitfield Cripps SPS
Curnow Reid Silvagni
Fisher Redpath Castagna

Kruezer Hopper Kelly

Williamson Ed Wright Cuningham

Northern:
Byrne Rowe Simpson
Smedts Silvagni Pickett
Balic, Kerridge, Thomas
Lamb Kerr Sumner
Jaksch Mckay Griffen

Phillips Polson Graham

 

[skadoosh]

If there's one thing I love, it's a list hypothetical..

Gibbs > pick 16, pick 34
Weitering, Pick 16 > Whitfield, Hopper, Griffen
Pick 1 > Kelly
Casboult > Castagna
Murphy > Sam Reid
Pick 54 > Balic
Pick 34 > Redpath

FA: Dureya

Out: Murphy, Gibbs, Weitering, Casboult, Pick 1, pick 54

In: Whitfield, Hopper, Kelly, Castagna, Reid, Redpath, Dureya, Balic, Griffen

Dureya Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Macreadie
Whitfield Cripps SPS
Curnow Reid Silvagni
Fisher Redpath Castagna

Kruezer Hopper Kelly

Williamson Ed Wright Cuningham

Northern:
Byrne Rowe Simpson
Smedts Silvagni Pickett
Balic, Kerridge, Thomas
Lamb Kerr Sumner
Jaksch Mckay Griffen

Phillips Polson Graham

Right... lets recruit Reid and Redpath so we can chuck Harry back into the reserves.

 

[My name geoff]

Right... lets recruit Reid and Redpath so we can chuck Harry back into the reserves.

If there's one thing I love, it's a list hypothetical..

Gibbs > pick 16, pick 34
Weitering, Pick 16 > Whitfield, Hopper, Griffen
Pick 1 > Kelly
Casboult > Castagna
Murphy > Sam Reid
Pick 54 > Balic
Pick 34 > Redpath

FA: Dureya

Out: Murphy, Gibbs, Weitering, Casboult, Pick 1, pick 54

In: Whitfield, Hopper, Kelly, Castagna, Reid, Redpath, Dureya, Balic, Griffen

Dureya Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Macreadie
Whitfield Cripps SPS
Curnow Reid Silvagni
Fisher Mckay Castagna

Kruezer Hopper Kelly

Williamson Ed Wright Cuningham

Northern:
Byrne Rowe Simpson
Smedts Silvagni Pickett
Balic, Kerridge, Thomas
Lamb Kerr Sumner
Jaksch Redpath Griffen

Phillips Polson Graham

Happy?

 

[skadoosh]

If there's one thing I love, it's a list hypothetical..

Gibbs > pick 16, pick 34
Weitering, Pick 16 > Whitfield, Hopper, Griffen
Pick 1 > Kelly
Casboult > Castagna
Murphy > Sam Reid
Pick 54 > Balic
Pick 34 > Redpath

FA: Dureya

Out: Murphy, Gibbs, Weitering, Casboult, Pick 1, pick 54

In: Whitfield, Hopper, Kelly, Castagna, Reid, Redpath, Dureya, Balic, Griffen

Dureya Jones Plowman
Docherty Marchbank Macreadie
Whitfield Cripps SPS
Curnow Reid Silvagni
Fisher Mckay Castagna

Kruezer Hopper Kelly

Williamson Ed Wright Cuningham

Northern:
Byrne Rowe Simpson
Smedts Silvagni Pickett
Balic, Kerridge, Thomas
Lamb Kerr Sumner
Jaksch Redpath Griffen

Phillips Polson Graham

Happy?

Hypothetical as in what you would do if you were List manager? Or what you think SoS will this off season? What you hope will happen? Or just putting Murphy and Weitering up for trade for the fun of it?

Please justify your trades.

 

[My name geoff]

Hypothetical as in what you would do if you were List manager? Or what you think SoS will this off season? What you hope will happen? Or just putting Murphy and Weitering up for trade for the fun of it?

Please justify your trades.

Throwing out some possible trades which could put us in a better position than we are currently in.

We lose a lot of talent in the players we trade out, but we get back arguably more and with a higher volume of contributors who can play right away. Barring Griffen who is a salary dump for GWS, all the players brought in would be right in the age bracket we need also.

We lose 3 players and 1 draft pick who are likely to still be playing in 2020 and gain 8 players who will still likely be playing in 2020.

We improve our forward line adding Reid, Castagna and Redpath while losing Casboult. We improve our Midfield greatly adding Kelly, Whitfield, Balic, Griffen and Hopper while losing Murphy and Gibbs. We lose significant talent in defence with Weitering going out and Dureya coming in.

Overall i would call this a big win for the position of our list currently. Defenders being in abundance relative to forwards and mids.

We can basically rectify our midfield with the proposed trades

Midfield 2017: Murphy, Gibbs, Cripps, SPS, Curnow, Kerridge, Cuningham

Midfield 2018: Kelly, Cripps, Whitfield, Griffen, Hopper, Curnow, SPS, Cuningham, Fisher, Balic

 

[DangerousD]

The club can't afford to keep VFL players on the list, if we want to improve. All those players you listed should be delisted.
Kerridge tries hard, but not AFL standard, the crows would have kept him if he was any good.
Another 5 years of proper recruiting by SOS, should bring plenty of talent to the club= Blues Premiers!

And how are you delisting all these players at once? What are you replacing them with?

 

[HBF]

I see the end of the 66 game rebuild at the end of trade/draft period 2018, we need patience

Exactly.
Whilst it is frustrating at times, we need to stay the course we set out at the beginning of last year.
We're still just over mid way through our rebuild.

 

[HBF]

Bolton: "We need to keep building our depth, particularly in the midfield. The depth is good in defence and our forwards are young and raw."
Never a truer word

More quality young mids in the next couple of drafts.