Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Soapy V]

I agree big changes still need to be made, but we are not going to slash the list by huge numbers and expect that they will be replaced immediately, and replaced with better players picked much later in the draft, good traded players aside.

Why not? People keep saying that but over the past 2 seasons SOS has made 28 List changes and we still have year to go on the 66 game List rebuild.

Like I stated perviously The Grand Finalists in Sydney & Western Bulldogs made 9 and 7 and these were the top 2 sides. Hawks made 11, Geelong 13 and GWS made 10. All finalists

I have no doubt there is another big cut coming.

 

[Soapy V]

Lamb is only 24, although i do agree with your point. However...

But Lebois has been injured, Polson more of midfielder and now out injured, cuningham gets a game when hes not injured but plays a slightly different role, pickett has had his chance and i dare say another chance this week or next.

So lamb hasnt had much pressure to push him out, and Lamb has been decent and held his spot so i have no issue with Lamb playing, still young, has played decent footy throughout the year, and no one putting pressure from the 2's

We are talking about next year

 

[AB_Blue]

If Levi does go FA who's provide cover do our Ruck and forward department

Redpath
Tippett

Liam Jones.....

It's an important role which needs to be carefully considered!

Exposing McKay to that role on a constant basis might do more harm than good.

Although Daniher does pinch hit a bit in the ruck for the Dons....

 

[Wily trout]

Why not? People keep saying that but over the past 2 seasons SOS has made 28 List changes and we still have year to go on the 66 game List rebuild.

Like I stated perviously The Grand Finalists in Sydney & Western Bulldogs made 9 and 7 and these were the top 2 sides. Hawks made 11, Geelong 13 and GWS made 10. All finalists

I have no doubt there is another big cut coming.

You may be right, but what currency do we have for trading? Gibbs, maybe two decent picks, Levi one decent pick. Then it is just a 1st round, 3rd, 4th and 5th round pick. I agree with you but not sure we are going to go as hard core this year.

 

[LordLucifer]

When Harker issued the challenge of "how do you replace 15 players this year", it has made me think more & more about the overall 66-game reset plan the club has embarked upon.

I'm now convinced it was always going to be an 88-game event, it's just that the club couldn't really sell hope to the fans more than three years out from completion.

The main reason behind this thought process is that they have probably factored in to their plans that there is bound to be one year where the draft pool may not be as strong as always plus another year where the amount of quality DFA's are very slim too.

When he first arrived at the club, SOS did an early assessment of where the list was at and apparently, it pulled no punches. In his first two goes at the trade & draft period, he has done extremely well working some magic in his wheeling & dealing with the other clubs.

As the other clubs see the list improve, they will be a little less reticent to be as generous as they have been in the past with their trades. Five RS noms may not help his negotiating power this time around too.

Working on the premise that you need a solid core of 30 'real' players on your list to be successful and that you can, at best, find six of those per annum, we need five trade & draft periods to get that 30 player nucleus.

This also doesn't include player retirements or the potential failure rate of new draftees which is a genuine reality.

2015 - 6
2016 - 6
2017 - 6
2018 - 6
2019 - 6

 

[HARKER]

Why not? People keep saying that but over the past 2 seasons SOS has made 28 List changes and we still have year to go on the 66 game List rebuild.
Like I stated perviously The Grand Finalists in Sydney & Western Bulldogs made 9 and 7 and these were the top 2 sides. Hawks made 11, Geelong 13 and GWS made 10. All finalists
I have no doubt there is another big cut coming.

Yes, but for starters two of them were akin to the club retiring them, more-so than trading or delisting.
Fitzpatrick was de-listed and re-listed. (7 delisted)

Geelong had two retired and four traded. (7 delisted)

I'm not sure we'll have the ability to trade out four players to advantage, which would have us having to dip deep into the RD or pick-up others' scraps via DFA. Is that what you think we'll do?

 

[HARKER]

I'm now convinced it was always going to be an 88-game event, it's just that the club couldn't really sell hope to the fans more than three years out from completion.

The main reason behind this thought process is that they have probably factored in to their plans that there is bound to be one year where the draft pool may not be as strong as always plus another year where the amount of quality DFA's are very slim too.

When he first arrived at the club, SOS did an early assessment of where the list was at and apparently, it pulled no punches. In his first two goes at the trade & draft period, he has done extremely well working some magic in his wheeling & dealing with the other clubs.

As the other clubs see the list improve, they will be a little less reticent to be as generous as they have been in the past with their trades. Five RS noms may not help his negotiating power this time around too.

Working on the premise that you need a solid core of 30 'real' players on your list to be successful and that you can, at best, find six of those per annum, we need five trade & draft periods to get that 30 player nucleus.

This also doesn't include player retirements or the potential failure rate of new draftees which is a genuine reality.

2015 - 6
2016 - 6
2017 - 6
2018 - 6
2019 - 6

I think you have a very valid point.
We do have 15-16 players that we can clear in the one sitting, but maybe just not able for things to fall into a great place for us to do it.

Don't think there will be any 4 for 1 deals this year. Not sure we're going to go down that path again. We can't. It doesn't fit.

 

[LordLucifer]

I think you have a very valid point.
We do have 15-16 players that we can clear in the one sitting, but maybe just not able for things to fall into a great place for us to do it.

Don't think there will be any 4 for 1 deals this year. Not sure we're going to go down that path again. We can't. It doesn't fit.

SOS milked the best he could out of what he knew was possible, the other clubs now know all about how that has played out and will either not want to do such deals or better still, want to get a piece of that action if there is one on offer.

They all know we will be back at some time in the future, so they will try and prolong that effort if they can.

 

[Soapy V]

When Harker issued the challenge of "how do you replace 15 players this year", it has made me think more & more about the overall 66-game reset plan the club has embarked upon.

I'm now convinced it was always going to be an 88-game event, it's just that the club couldn't really sell hope to the fans more than three years out from completion.

I have no doubt. 66 games was the major part. I expect another 20 plus changes over next 2 trade/draft periods. Then don't be surprised to see us keep making 6-8 over the next few years after. There will be a number of bust picks and unlike the previous regime SOS won't hang onto them for too long

 

[Soapy V]

Yes, but for starters two of them were akin to the club retiring them, more-so than trading or delisting.
Fitzpatrick was de-listed and re-listed. (7 delisted)

Geelong had two retired and four traded. (7 delisted)

I'm not sure we'll have the ability to trade out four players to advantage, which would have us having to dip deep into the RD or pick-up others' scraps via DFA. Is that what you think we'll do?

How do you know? I'm not discounting anything. Last year people kept coming up with options, reasons why players can't go etc and SOS came up with deals and picks no one even considered.

I'll be happy to sit back and watch as I have no doubt SOS will make the tough decisions

 

[kjr8]

Seems like Charlie may be being trialled to play that role.

You don't use a Ferrari to plow the field.

 

[HARKER]

How do you know? I'm not discounting anything. Last year people kept coming up with options, reasons why players can't go etc and SOS came up with deals and picks no one even considered.

I'll be happy to sit back and watch as I have no doubt SOS will make the tough decisions

Hey, it may happen.
Remember though that amongst our list changes last year we had 3 retirements.
Had have Walker & Jamison been in better shape, they could have gone on for another year or two.

This years retirements?
Armfield definitely and maybe Simpson & Rowe. It's all relative, but whichever way anything above 10 off the books, may be a bit of a stretch.

 

[Soapy V]

Hey, it may happen.
Remember though that amongst our list changes last year we had 3 retirements.
Had have Walker & Jamison been in better shape, they could have gone on for another year or two.

This years retirements?
Armfield definitely and maybe Simpson & Rowe. It's all relative, but whichever way anything above 10 off the books, may be a bit of a stretch.

If players don't retire they are delisted. What's the difference. Retirements probably saved one or two other players? I'll be amazed if it's under 10 changes. SOS & Bolton know that our list is poor and still needs a lot of changes.

 

[HARKER]

If players don't retire they are delisted. What's the difference. Retirements probably saved one or two other players? I'll be amazed if it's under 10 changes. SOS & Bolton know that our list is poor and still needs a lot of changes.

No. Jamison & Walker retired because of the failing bodies and not because they were going to be delisted.
Had their bodies been in better shape, they would have gone on. They weren't age-related retirements.

Riewoldt retried today. He is 35

 

[majesticseacapt]

We are talking about next year

Next year id love to have Pickett in his role with Lamb as depth.

Next year id love it even more if Pickett was on a wing and pushing forward!

 

[majesticseacapt]

You don't use a Ferrari to plow the field.

Exactly, we dont need any of those ruckman injuries to CC.

Let some other buffoon stand in the hole and have forwards run into him!

 

[Soapy V]

No. Jamison & Walker retired because of the failing bodies and not because they were going to be delisted.
Had their bodies been in better shape, they would have gone on. They weren't age-related retirements.

Riewoldt retried today. He is 35

My point is that if they didn't retire SOS would have delisted 2 other players . Number is still the same if he believes he can replace them. This year a number of players will be hanging on to see if they get a one year deal following the trade period. SOS will be trying to replace as many as possible

 

[Blueboys7]

Seems like Charlie may be being trialled to play that role.

And I've hated every second of it.

 

[Pafloyul]

I see the end of the 66 game rebuild at the end of trade/draft period 2018, we need patience

The bulk of it but we will probably still be a bit short on midfield depth. The day the delisting becomes a formality and we fluctuate between four and five draft selections each year is the day we can say the rebuild has finished.

 

[Arr0w]

The bulk of it but we will probably still be a bit short on midfield depth. The day the delisting becomes a formality and we fluctuate between four and five draft selections each year is the day we can say the rebuild has finished.

True, that's why I believe the true makeup of our side will still heavily involve draftees and trade acquisitions over the next 2 off seasons

 

[Arr0w]

Noticed a few people questioning our draftees and trade acquisitions.

You would be a brave person to suggest any picks/trades SOS was involved in, being failures or lost the better end of the deal, at this point in time

 

[Malifice]

No we don't need players because they do this or that. That's the Rogers/Hughes theory to list management. We need better players to be a better side. Too many people think we need a player as depth or back up. That is BS. At the moment we are bottom 2 and a long long way off top 4. Big cuts need to be made. We need to keep turning over the very average and players until we get better. Much better

All well and good in theory Soapy until you realise that cutting 15 players means you then need to find 15 better players to replace them (otherwise why cut them in the first place).

We cut 15 players from the current list, we're idiots. We aint gonna find 15 players as good or better to replace them this year, particularly with no 2nd rounder.

 

[Soapy V]

True, that's why I believe the true makeup of our side will still heavily involve draftees and trade acquisitions over the next 2 off seasons

What is really exciting is look at our best 22 under 23 at the moment and then add another 20 plus young players (maybe a Hopper Balic Saad, FA and 6-7 draft picks this year the similar again in 2018) over the next 2 years and the potential is amazing plus it will have a completely different look

Docherty Weitering Plowman
Byrne Marchbank Williamson

Ruck? Charlie SPS
Pickett Cripps Cuningham

Polson McKay Silvagni
Macreadie Kerr LeBois

Fisher ?? ?? ??

Then add Kelly Hopper Balic BSOS some more trades/FA's and another 12 or so talented young kids over next 2 drafts.

On top of that I expect Murphy Jones Kruezer Curnow Wright ASOS Phillips maybe Sheehan to play on for a few years yet

 

[Soapy V]

All well and good in theory Soapy until you realise that cutting 15 players means you then need to find 15 better players to replace them (otherwise why cut them in the first place).

We cut 15 players from the current list, we're idiots. We aint gonna find 15 players as good or better to replace them this year, particularly with no 2nd rounder.

Where did I say 15? I did say 28 were cut over the past 2 yeasr so 15 although high may not be far off the mark

 

[Malifice]

Where did I say 15? I did say 28 were cut over the past 2 yeasr so 15 although high may not be far off the mark

We've had the advantage over the past few years of being able to trade out (Henderson, Yarran, Touhy, Menzel) all for extra top 20 draft picks.

We've also been able to leverage GWS for 'package deals' to cover some of those massive list changes.

This year, we wont have much. We're starting one top 20 pick down already (no second rounder). Gibbs has to go, and if Casboult walks for 4 years at 500k, we should hopefully also net another low pick that way.

Still; I predict only around 10 changes this year (and even then, thats a lot).