Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[GoBlues!]

Kennedy was more than steak knives, but he was a big price to pay. Had that happened in this era (assuming Judd wasn't an eligible free agent), they would have taken 3, Kennedy, and then given us something back.

In hindsight he was, but at the time Kennedy was still developing and a bit of an unknown quantity. Still remember Nisbett squealing like a pig that we paid unders for Judd.

Kennedy's game took off at WCE as their key forward, out of the shadows of Fevola.

 

[Funk]

And how are you delisting all these players at once? What are you replacing them with?

Bring DVR back from Port Melbourne??

 

[HBF]

Take note Adelaide. We are not going to hand one of our best contracted midfielders for peanuts, if at all.

Adelaide should realise that Gibbs could very well be the difference in them winning the flag.
Their time is now and really should do everything they can to achieve the ultimate glory.

 

[HBF]

We only need one club to desperately want him - Tigers fit that category!!!

Collingwood as well.
They're screaming out for a second tall forward, and we know they like to overpay for players from other clubs.

 

[therubbernub]

Gibbs to Crows (Barass and MS3 both confirm its likely to happen again), Lever to Dogs (they want him, and he's a good chance to leave) and Dogs 1st rounder + Redpath (who we are reportedly interested in; again by Barass) is a reasonable chance of happening.

I'd be happy with 10 and Redpath for Gibbs. The latter to cover for Casboult (who Barass reported has a 4 year, 2 million dollar offer in front of him from the Tiges - likely netting us Band 3 compo - or a pick around pick 20).

Again, the net result is we lose Gibbs and Casboult, and gain Picks 10, 20 and Redpath (the latter to cover for Casboult).

Effectively (with Redpath covering for Levi) we lose Gibbs for 10 + 20.

What we then do with pick 1-2 will be intresting. If Kelly nominates us, trading to the Giants for Kelly is a no-brainer for mine. If we land pick 1, we'll also have pick 1 in the PSD so we might be able to leverage a swap of picks next year in our favor as well (GWS 1st next year for our 2nd).

If he doesn't nominate us, I would strongly consider swapping pick 1 for picks 7 and 8 from the Saints.

Redpath wont cover for Levi for we arent getting full value for Gibbs as a consequence

 

[Wily trout]

The club can't afford to keep VFL players on the list, if we want to improve. All those players you listed should be delisted.
Kerridge tries hard, but not AFL standard, the crows would have kept him if he was any good.
Another 5 years of proper recruiting by SOS, should bring plenty of talent to the club= Blues Premiers!

Right here right now we need players like Kerridge's and his hard gut running, we need Lamb's linking work and we need Graham for midfield depth. Of course with new talent coming in they will be replaced over time, with a thanks for their service and may even be around long enough get their name on their locker in the case of a Graham or Kerridge.

 

[Kramer1]

Levi's value in giving 4-5 minutes a quarter in the ruck is hard to replace...though it may be that Harry can provide that going forward.

 

[Wily trout]

Levi's value in giving 4-5 minutes a quarter in the ruck is hard to replace...though it may be that Harry can provide that going forward.

Seems like Charlie may be being trialled to play that role.

 

[Matty411]

I'll preface this by saying I love the direction of the club and have full belief in those at the helm (Bolts/SOS etc) but assuming we don't win another game in 2017 (likely) then we should apply (because why not, we did last year) and be given a PP - hopefully from 16th or 17th.

For the second year IN A ROW, we've been beaten comfortably by the bottom-ranked Lions and finished (again, likely based on remaining draw and form) with 5 or less wins. Yes, we have some excellent kids coming through and yeah we've had a lot of hype and yes WE know that we're building correctly.

But I can't see how the AFL can justify denying such a request - should we ask again (which I think we will).

Recent results and promising youth has shown that - while I think we'll be better in time - Brisbane and us are closer than many think. So why should they be treated differently (PPs for example)?

I know many will lament the PP and what it stands for, but as Bolts has said "spoon doesn't matter, journey etc etc" and SOS (already asked for a PP)... our opinions against the fact do not matter - and it would give us a handy bump - allowing us to either better satisfy GWS in a deal for Kelly/Hopper/Whitfield or add an extra gun kid that is quite clearly needed with another cleanout of 8+ coming.

 

[HBF]

Kelly is one of the most skilful players in the AFL, still so much potential as well. Would take him over anyone in the draft easy trade for #2.

And he'll have an immediate impact as well.
I really think it's a no brainer to trade for Kelly should he nominate us.

 

[HBF]

Can anyone tell me about Hoppers year to date? Surely his trade value would be at a low.

Been injured for a large chunk of it.
Expected back in the next week or so.

 

[BluesRule]

Been injured for a large chunk of it.
Expected back in the next week or so.

Played three quarters in the magoos on the weekend. Was OK.

 

[kjr8]

So imagine if we finish last, which is plausible. Receive #1 of ND and PSD.. GWS would need to think about taking a late 1st round (via Gibbs trade) for Kelly, should he nominate us.

 

[Penetrator]

My trading and hopefully realistic list management wish list over the next 2 years that would put us right in contention.

Hopefully Kelly stays at the Giants because while he is a jet i am not convinced he would be the right fit for us and will cost too much at the trade table.

pick 1 or 2 - Best midfielder most likely Dow , Cerra , Ldu or Rayner. For this exercise i am choosing Rayner.

Pick 15 from the crows for Gibbs obtruded to Giants for Hopper. 2nd round 2018 pick also from crows for Gibbs trade

Pick 20 compo pick for Levi while probably won’t happen would be the dream result. Ontraded to Suns for Saad and the GC 3rd round pick. pick 40. Saad would provide pace and run from the backline and also shut down on opposition small forwards.

Pick 56 for balic.

in . Hopper , Saad , Rayner , Balic , pick 38 , 40 , 72

out - Casboult , Gibbs , 1st lot of list fillers

2018

Will most likely have top 5 pick again so best midfielder which at this early stage would love it to be Conner Rozee

Dylan Shiel as the big money free agent.

Bensos and 2nd round pick on best available and some more Sos magic with later round picks.


2019 side

Byrne Jones Plowman

Marchbank Weitering Saad

Willo Hopper Doc

Rayner Charlie Jsos

Pickett Harry Samo

Kreuzer Cripps

Shiels

inter from - Murphy , Ed , Rozee , Balic , Fisher , Cuningham , bensos , Phillips , Polson , Macreadie , 2017/18 other draft picks.

I would think with natural improvement of our younger players and coaching staff , some added class this sort of side would be hard to beat.

Thoughts ?

 

[Jimmae]

In hindsight he was, but at the time Kennedy was still developing and a bit of an unknown quantity. Still remember Nisbett squealing like a pig that we paid unders for Judd.

Kennedy's game took off at WCE as their key forward, out of the shadows of Fevola.

Who gives a **** what Nisbett's thoughts were on the matter, could have been posturing for all we know and he's not the brains of the organisation when it comes to trade valuations.

West Coast could have had Dangerfield and Rance in that draft, and could have nudged pick 20 up a few spots. They had the tools to completely revitalise their list.

 

[Mr_Plow]

My trading and hopefully realistic list management wish list over the next 2 years that would put us right in contention.

Hopefully Kelly stays at the Giants because while he is a jet i am not convinced he would be the right fit for us and will cost too much at the trade table.

pick 1 or 2 - Best midfielder most likely Dow , Cerra , Ldu or Rayner. For this exercise i am choosing Rayner.

Pick 15 from the crows for Gibbs obtruded to Giants for Hopper. 2nd round 2018 pick also from crows for Gibbs trade

Pick 20 compo pick for Levi while probably won’t happen would be the dream result. Ontraded to Suns for Saad and the GC 3rd round pick. pick 40. Saad would provide pace and run from the backline and also shut down on opposition small forwards.

Pick 56 for balic.

in . Hopper , Saad , Rayner , Balic , pick 38 , 40 , 72

out - Casboult , Gibbs , 1st lot of list fillers

2018

Will most likely have top 5 pick again so best midfielder which at this early stage would love it to be Conner Rozee

Dylan Shiel as the big money free agent.

Bensos and 2nd round pick on best available and some more Sos magic with later round picks.


2019 side

Byrne Jones Plowman

Marchbank Weitering Saad

Willo Hopper Doc

Rayner Charlie Jsos

Pickett Harry Samo

Kreuzer Cripps

Shiels

inter from - Murphy , Ed , Rozee , Balic , Fisher , Cuningham , bensos , Phillips , Polson , Macreadie , 2017/18 other draft picks.

I would think with natural improvement of our younger players and coaching staff , some added class this sort of side would be hard to beat.

Thoughts ?

Saad, Hopper and Rayner would be an outrageously good offseason.

These trades make sense too.

The Hopper trade makes sense.

Feel like we'd be lucky getting 40 back from GC, I just rate Saad really highly, he'll flourish here at home with his family.

If Rayner demonstrates something of a tank at the combine, he would be perfect for us.

 

[HARKER]

2019 side
Byrne Jones Plowman
Marchbank Weitering Saad
Willo Hopper Doc
Rayner Charlie Jsos
Pickett Harry Samo
Kreuzer Cripps
Shiels

inter from - Murphy , Ed , Rozee , Balic , Fisher , Cuningham , bensos , Phillips , Polson , Macreadie , 2017/18 other draft picks.

I would think with natural improvement of our younger players and coaching staff , some added class this sort of side would be hard to beat.

Thoughts ?

Whatever we think may be the case come 2019..........won't be.
If all did fall/come our way, we may see something like this.

Byrne Jones Plowman
Pickett Marchbank Docherty............Would be happy with that-type backline. More speed, less talls.

Kreuzer Cripps Kelly
Williamson Hopper Weitering..........Would be thrilled with this mid-field and yes, Weitering isn't a mistake.

CCurnow McKay Petrevski-Seton
JSilvagni Lynch Fisher...................Happy with our new forward line.

ECurnow, Cuningham, 2017 pick #2, BSilvagni, Macreadie

Would be happy with that as a start point but maybe another quality mid or two required. Shiel would be brilliant.

 

[Soapy V]

Right here right now we need players like Kerridge's and his hard gut running, we need Lamb's linking work and we need Graham for midfield depth.

No we don't need players because they do this or that. That's the Rogers/Hughes theory to list management. We need better players to be a better side. Too many people think we need a player as depth or back up. That is BS. At the moment we are bottom 2 and a long long way off top 4. Big cuts need to be made. We need to keep turning over the very average and players until we get better. Much better

 

[BigFrizz36]

No we don't need players because they do this or that. That's the Rogers/Hughes theory to list management. We need better players to be a better side. Too many people think we need a player as depth or back up. That is BS. At the moment we are bottom 2 and a long long way off top 4. Big cuts need to be made. We need to keep turning over the very average and players until we get better. Much better

Agreed, but we have to prioritise in order of importance. For example a high half forward like Devon Smith would be a huge upgrade on Jed Lamb. However assuming we got pick 15 (and hopefully more) for Gibbs I would prefer to use it on an inside midfielder like Hopper and keep Lamb for another year rather than cut Lamb and get Smith. Mind you there is not a lot of point of Lamb working into positions where he has absolutely no chance of kicking the goal but that is a different point.

 

[DangerousD]

So imagine if we finish last, which is plausible. Receive #1 of ND and PSD.. GWS would need to think about taking a late 1st round (via Gibbs trade) for Kelly, should he nominate us.

Yes they would and then we should think twice as if Cas leaves, oh what do you know, the AFL deems no compensation.
Then we ask the AFL to upgrade PP for AFLW they tell us GFY
We ask the AFL for a better draw GFY
You don't bite the hand that feeds you.

 

[majesticseacapt]

One of the most intelligent posts of the year, to notice rogers was crossing off names at the bottom of his list that the rest of the league was picking in the early rounds

People get too carried away with 'x was drafted at y, so hes clearly better than z'.

The first round, especially the top 10, is usually best available. But from there its usually the best available for their team list.

I seriously doubt we would take another KPP over a mid in any round this year, especially after the first round (if there was a clear standout).

Thats why i feel people put too much pressure on Cuningham and Boekhorst. Granted BB was a semi mature pickup, but both those players wouldnt of gone anywhere near the picks we took them with. It was a case, 'we think this player is what we need and he wont be there with our next pick.'

I think this is the case with rogers in that draft, the players at the top of his list were players he thought we needed. While the other end of his list may of been players that suited other clubs with their lists.

I do like how SOS has built our list, KPP take longer to mature and produce good footy. Theyre also more prone to being hit and miss.... as we've experienced. SOS may of already had a Hopper/Kelly/Whitfield lined up for a few years as well prior to this offseason, knowing he could go heavy with KPP as he knew we would get a quality young mid in a few years time.

Anyway, thats my thoughts...

 

[rampar]

500k a year over 4 years for Cas? Id offer a front end loaded avg of ~650K per year over 3 years, we have to hit a min salary cap anyway. Unless of course we can get over the odds compensation

 

[Wily trout]

No we don't need players because they do this or that. That's the Rogers/Hughes theory to list management. We need better players to be a better side. Too many people think we need a player as depth or back up. That is BS. At the moment we are bottom 2 and a long long way off top 4. Big cuts need to be made. We need to keep turning over the very average and players until we get better. Much better

I agree big changes still need to be made, but we are not going to slash the list by huge numbers and expect that they will be replaced immediately, and replaced with better players picked much later in the draft, good traded players aside.
SOS has done a great job, excellent job in fact, with trading and picks so far, but it does take time. I could name at least a dozen players that I don't see as making the grade or only as depth. Other posters might even name more to be cut, but they are not all going out the door until replacement have shown that they either 'will definitely' make it, or shown enough to make Bolts think that they might.
I guess that is the thing about a rebuild we are not starting from nothing like GWS or the Suns, with more picks than we know what to do with. We are managing an existing poor list with many average players and slowly with the resources we have available making it a good list whilst remaining as competitive as we can.

 

[Soapy V]

Agreed, but we have to prioritise in order of importance. For example a high half forward like Devon Smith would be a huge upgrade on Jed Lamb. However assuming we got pick 15 (and hopefully more) for Gibbs I would prefer to use it on an inside midfielder like Hopper and keep Lamb for another year rather than cut Lamb and get Smith. Mind you there is not a lot of point of Lamb working into positions where he has absolutely no chance of kicking the goal but that is a different point.

I understand your reasoning but IMO an average player can be replaced easily by someone on the list or coming in. Using Lamb for an example I would prefer to see Cuningham or Polson or Pickett or even LeBois play that role. They are the future. It's amazing what can happen when kids get given a chance. Remembering next year we will have at least 10 new faces on our list with most being 22 and under. Our current kids will be year older and better and should be playing regular footy. In that case Lamb should not be getting a game.

 

[majesticseacapt]

Using Lamb for an example I would prefer to see Cuningham or Polson or Pickett or even LeBois play that role.

Lamb is only 24, although i do agree with your point. However...

But Lebois has been injured, Polson more of midfielder and now out injured, cuningham gets a game when hes not injured but plays a slightly different role, pickett has had his chance and i dare say another chance this week or next.

So lamb hasnt had much pressure to push him out, and Lamb has been decent and held his spot so i have no issue with Lamb playing, still young, has played decent footy throughout the year, and no one putting pressure from the 2's