Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[gab213]

At the beginning of 07, Franklin and Roughead had played 34 and 36 games respectively.

At the beginning of next year Charlie (Franklin) will likely have 27 games and Weiters 42 (Roughead).

These guys, with a good pre-season, could explode next year.

The original post quoted the 2007 finals, that's what I referenced (hence its 56 and 58 games). They may explode, they may not, but we were talking forward line as well( Harry was mentioned in the original post). Are you thinking Weitering plays forward mainly from here on end? We are also looking at the composition of our forward line at the beginning of the year, what they may or may not need could change by the end of the year.

Whatever the case may be it doesn't change my opinion on the value of having a more mature player up forward with them in Round 1.

 

[gab213]

Why is everyone trying to come up with over night fixes? We aren't winning the flag next year!

Hopefully in 4 or 5 years time Would love it to be sooner but need to be realistic, we still have a lot of work to do.

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Why is everyone trying to come up with over night fixes? We aren't winning the flag next year!

Its easier to write a message in 1 night then write it over multiple nights.

 

[Cutz]

You're both wrong.

Charlie has the potential to be an elite key defender, reckon we'll see him used at full back next year and Bolts will trial Jones up forward. Has the strength and athleticism to be an elite key forward.

Jones up forward ? ?

Hasn't this been done..? and failed to the point where it almost cost Jones his career ?

Jones cant play forward, just doesn't have the skill set for it. Personally, If I see Jones back in the forward line I know we're in a bit of trouble.

He stays where he excels, that is a key defensive position.

 

[Cutz]

Rowe

yes. He's a better fit up forward for another year or so isnt he ?

Personally like to see Redpath there..Rate him..

 

[Cutz]

There was no problem with Judd, the problem was the people around him. If Fevola wasn't a nutcase, we could've very well made the 2011 grand final. Not to mention poor recruiting and club management (bringing in Malthouse).

Midfielders are not a dime a dozen. That's such a shit myth that gets thrown around way too often. When you make that statement, you make it sound like Kelly is a mid therefore players like him are a dime a dozen. Fact is, he is an elite mid who runs both ways. Those types are quite rare and definitely not a dime a dozen.

It's not stupid to suggest Ben will be a part of our forward line. There's an old saying, it goes: "When you can see the city, you don't need a map to it" It's quite obvious we are going to draft him and he is a key forward type of player.

In regards to forwards over 21, we don't need an older forward right now. We are not in contention for a flag next year or even the year after that. The current forwards we have will be hitting their peak when the rest of the group does. When that happens, then we will be in with a shot at a flag. But NOT if we don't address our midfield issues immediately.

No we're not in contention for a tilt at the flag yet..But we cant keep getting flogged and finishing bottom three either. Next year is year 3 of the rebuild and Bolts third as well. Think we all expected Carlton to go backwards a tad this year, but next Id like to see us a few spots higher than we currently sit. I'm just getting a tad concerned with how not winning will impact the broader group moving forward and that's why I believe if Casboult takes off, then we should look at Rowe or look to add Redpath, or bring someone in from outside for a year or so. IF we've won 5 this year, next year Id like to see us win 8 or even 9.

The forward line will need to function a whole lot better than its functioned over the last 2 years, and without Casboult there next year these sensational kids we've recruited will struggle hard.

 

[Wickzki]

Jones up forward ? ?

Hasn't this been done..? and failed to the point where it almost cost Jones his career ?

Jones cant play forward, just doesn't have the skill set for it. Personally, If I see Jones back in the forward line I know we're in a bit of trouble.

He stays where he excels, that is a key defensive position.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It's not just about the midfield, you need quality on every line.

Debating any other midfield target, apart from Kelly, with you seems pointless, as you are so fixated. But if Kelly does re-sign with GWS, who would you consider to be worthy, of trading in?

For pick 2? No one. Can't see any other young elite mid on the table. Hopper will be more worthy of a pick 9 so maybe we can get that out of the Gibbs trade.

But yeah if he re-signs then I'd rather we keep pick 2 and draft the best mid available. My focus will shift to Shiel come 2019 while we keep drafting our own mids until then unless another gun becomes available (Coniglio for example).

Re quality on every line, we already have the potential for that. We will also obviously be trading in and drafting other players over the next couple of years. But our best currency should be spent on trying to get as many elite mids as we can.

Kelly this year
2 top 10 draft picks next year (try and shop around our 2019 1st for an additional 2018 top 10 pick or maybe orchestrate a deal with another club for their 2018 1st)
Shiel in 2019.

Like I've been saying, imo we need to have 4 elite mids. Cripps is one. With Kelly + Shiel there's 2 more and we then only need to rely on 1 of SPS or the 2 top 10 picks from 2018 draft to become elite. If all 3 of them do then we're talking 3 flags territory.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

No we're not in contention for a tilt at the flag yet..But we cant keep getting flogged and finishing bottom three either. Next year is year 3 of the rebuild and Bolts third as well. Think we all expected Carlton to go backwards a tad this year, but next Id like to see us a few spots higher than we currently sit. I'm just getting a tad concerned with how not winning will impact the broader group moving forward and that's why I believe if Casboult takes off, then we should look at Rowe or look to add Redpath, or bring someone in from outside for a year or so. IF we've won 5 this year, next year Id like to see us win 8 or even 9.

The forward line will need to function a whole lot better than its functioned over the last 2 years, and without Casboult there next year these sensational kids we've recruited will struggle hard.

I agree we can't keep finishing bottom 3. That's why I want us to bring in Kelly especially if Gibbs leaves. He'll be a MUCH bigger loss than Casboult let me tell you.

Cas isn't the ticket to us climbing the ladder. That's a proven fact. Rowe is an option, barass said we're interested in Redpath so that tells me the club understands the situation so I don't think we'll just be throwing these kids to the wolves if Cas leaves.

 

[Weiterbot23]

Surely we will have one of Gibbs, Kelly or Hopper next year.

No way we can afford to get weaker on our thinnest line.

 

[Blue__Balls]

For pick 2? No one. Can't see any other young elite mid on the table. Hopper will be more worthy of a pick 9 so maybe we can get that out of the Gibbs trade.

But yeah if he re-signs then I'd rather we keep pick 2 and draft the best mid available. My focus will shift to Shiel come 2019 while we keep drafting our own mids until then unless another gun becomes available (Coniglio for example).

Re quality on every line, we already have the potential for that. We will also obviously be trading in and drafting other players over the next couple of years. But our best currency should be spent on trying to get as many elite mids as we can.

Kelly this year
2 top 10 draft picks next year (try and shop around our 2019 1st for an additional 2018 top 10 pick or maybe orchestrate a deal with another club for their 2018 1st)
Shiel in 2019.

Like I've been saying, imo we need to have 4 elite mids. Cripps is one. With Kelly + Shiel there's 2 more and we then only need to rely on 1 of SPS or the 2 top 10 picks from 2018 draft to become elite. If all 3 of them do then we're talking 3 flags territory.

If Kelly signed on at GWS i'd be keen for us to try for Whitfield and Hopper with Pick 2.

 

[No1Suspect]

Ok so here's my latest:

If Lions win 2 games and we finish bottom

We keep Pick 1 and draft best young kid
We offer GWS our round 1 pick from 2018 for Hopper
We keep Gibbs
We walk Kelly to pre season draft and grab him with pick 1

Our midfield next year Cripps Kelly Gibbs Hopper Murphy SPS Cuningham Fisher & 2017 no 1 draft pick.

Really...... another Walk 'player x' to the PSD.... Josh Kelly would never simply walk out on GWS.


Ive also read the Lets not worry about Kelly arguement and if its not Josh it will be someone else. Whats to say another player of Joshs ilk requests to come to us? If Kellys wants in at the Blues you dont say no, you get it done.

 

[Cutz]

Sarcasm?..

Sorry.. It was 3 in the morning !

Jones up forward ? ?

Hasn't this been done..? and failed to the point where it almost cost Jones his career ?

Jones cant play forward, just doesn't have the skill set for it. Personally, If I see Jones back in the forward line I know we're in a bit of trouble.

He stays where he excels, that is a key defensive position.

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[Windhover]

[I understand how you feel, hopefully you are just as clinical with both sides of the argument
Windhover, care to join in?

The Flying Doormat,
]

The "argument" is jejune. Whether player A (Cripps) is better than player B (Kelly) will depend on what you see is most important about the player. Unless and until both sides of the argument can agree to what they consider to be "objective" indicia (like maybe Brownlow votes) the argument must rise no higher than "just because".

And on that point IMO it is undoubtedly the case that Cripps is better than Kelly. Why? Just because (and if you don't agree with me you know nothing about football. Nothing.)
(PS. I reserve the right to amend my view next year if/when Kelly joins us.)

 

[Weiterbot23]

Let's bring the PSD back!

Why not!?

If we get Kelly for free we will have enough young talent to go for 17 by just using draft picks and free agency.


Let's just tank and do it!

heck GWS! They gave us Jaksch!

 

[Cutz]

Really...... another Walk 'player x' to the PSD.... Josh Kelly would never simply walk out on GWS.


Ive also read the Lets not worry about Kelly arguement and if its not Josh it will be someone else. Whats to say another player of Joshs ilk requests to come to us? If Kellys wants in at the Blues you dont say no, you get it done.

Agree..

End of the day we're not going to sign him up like we did with Nick Stevens are we ?

Guess we can only have a red hot go.. What I like about the 'new' Carlton is that I know that if we don't.. Theres a very good reason.. Days of us doing our b*lls on these deals are over..



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[GapInIkonPark]

They wanted and held out for our pick 5 for Marchbank .
Marchbank was out of contract
They didn't get pick 5 ...

But it would be fair to say GWS were well compensated for 'out-of-contract' players. They got a future first round pick and salary dumped Palmer.
For Treloar they got a current and future first round picks.

 

[HARKER]

Ive also read the Lets not worry about Kelly argument and if its not Josh it will be someone else. Whats to say another player of Joshs ilk requests to come to us? If Kellys wants in at the Blues you dont say no, you get it done.

It's true that there won't be players around with Kelly's qualities and attributes and that we should be in the hunt for him, but it's also true that we shouldn't get Kelly at any cost.
If for instance we're up against 1.3 mil * 5 and having to fork out two first rounder, do we do it?

The trick for us, is to have him want to come to us above all other considerations. Tough trick to pull off, but we can do it.

 

[Funk]

Forgarty will be long gone by pick 20

Not if Charlie Curnow takes him out drinking.............

 

[Soapy V]

Why? I think he would complement our young forward line perfectly.

Seems to reinvented his career as a defender. Playing really good footy. Not sure that's what we need

 

[Soapy V]

No we're not in contention for a tilt at the flag yet..But we cant keep getting flogged and finishing bottom three either. Next year is year 3 of the rebuild and Bolts third as well. Think we all expected Carlton to go backwards a tad this year, but next Id like to see us a few spots higher than we currently sit. I'm just getting a tad concerned with how not winning will impact the broader group moving forward and that's why I believe if Casboult takes off, then we should look at Rowe or look to add Redpath, or bring someone in from outside for a year or so. IF we've won 5 this year, next year Id like to see us win 8 or even 9.

The forward line will need to function a whole lot better than its functioned over the last 2 years, and without Casboult there next year these sensational kids we've recruited will struggle hard.

It's a 3 year "List Rebuild". That is turning over the list and bringing in young talent. IMO it's the right way but it will take another 2-3 years minimum whilst the kids get game time and experience before we are genuine finals threats. That's just the system and I'm okay with what we are doing

If we bring in another 8-10 new kids this year I still believe we will be bottom 3 in 2018. Patience required but it will be worth it

 

[HARKER]

Why is everyone trying to come up with over night fixes? We aren't winning the flag next year!

We've positioned ourselves to start making these 'quick' fixes, this year and next.
We can't just sit on our hands and allow the competition to get a leg up on us now.

Can't see us just letting things roll on and simply going to the draft.
SOS will be very active in getting a more rounded and competitive outfit onto the park next year and watch out for the year after.

 

[TooBlue14]

If we can manage Kelly to go along with Cripps (imo) we will have the best 2 midfielders (or will be) inyhe afl.

 

[therubbernub]

Why is everyone trying to come up with over night fixes? We aren't winning the flag next year!

Because firstly the club needs to start being functional. Not top 4 but vying for a finals birth. They need to do this next year. You can see that Bolts is transitioning . He is starting to raise expectations amongst the playing group and with supporters. There is a subtle shift in his after match pressers, you an tell that he is genuinely pissed when we give up last quarter leads and go down. You can see it in the coaching box- last week was a classic. So if BB expects us to start winning , It's good enough for me.
Secondly, we need to develop our youngsters in a positive environment. We cant just keep losing, and expect our young guns to not notice. They will at some stage start to expect some reward for effort. I dont want to see charlie or cripps walk away when they start getting offers over the 1.0m mark, we need to show them that we are on the up.
So you are right, its not about winning flags next year- but it doesnt have to be . We need to materially improve next year. I believe that means fringe 8 next year ie the POSSIBILITY of finals. Is that such a big ask? I dont think it is being unrealistic. If we use the 12 wins as a target then analyse what we did in the past 2 years , it means another 6 wins next year on top of the wins we were able to scrape together this year and last.
If we look at our games that we lost narrowly this year and say "with some luck"

Rd 2 V Melbourne : Could easily have won this
RD 8 V saints: Could have won ran out of puff
RD 10 V Roos: Could have won
RD 15 V Crows: Could have won
RD 16 V Melbourne: Could have won
RD 20 V Essendon: Could have won

Look I know that I am looking through blue colored glasses, but the fact remains that we were in 6 games in the last quarter and with some luck/experience/fitness we could have won them . This with our EXISTING list. Add Kelly , Add another quality mid, Add organic growth from our existing players. You cant tell me that we wouldnt be a much better side next year. That to me means that we probably win most of those dropped 6 games and another 1-2. This means fringe 8 to me. I think BB agrees.

 

[therubbernub]

ones up forward ? ?

Hasn't this been done..?

Cant recall. Maybe