Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[therubbernub]

yes. He's a better fit up forward for another year or so isnt he ?

Personally like to see Redpath there..Rate him..

I would give Rowe a crack at it if Levi leaves. I know Sam has been tried up there before, but anything could happen second time around. He has gained a lot of confidence playing down back and dare I say it, has learnt a lot playing on the oppositions best forwards. IIRC Alistair Lynch started down back and transitioned into a fantastic forward later in his career. What we do know is that Sam is a very good kick for goal, so if he got the ball as often as Levi his goal output would presumably be superior. He is as tough as nails and tries his heart out.

 

[therubbernub]

Not if Charlie Curnow takes him out drinking.............

Free drinks at SOS's carwash

 

[Benaly28]

Liam jones was traded to us by bullies for pick 46(Caleb Daniel).Who would you take now?

 

[therubbernub]

It's a 3 year "List Rebuild". That is turning over the list and bringing in young talent. IMO it's the right way but it will take another 2-3 years minimum whilst the kids get game time and experience before we are genuine finals threats. That's just the system and I'm okay with what we are doing

If we bring in another 8-10 new kids this year I still believe we will be bottom 3 in 2018. Patience required but it will be worth it

Still on your soap box about this. I disagree. And I am pretty sure BB does as well

 

[HARKER]

Because firstly the club needs to start being functional. Not top 4 but vying for a finals birth. They need to do this next year. You can see that Bolts is transitioning . He is starting to raise expectations amongst the playing group and with supporters. There is a subtle shift in his after match pressers, you an tell that he is genuinely pissed when we give up last quarter leads and go down. You can see it in the coaching box- last week was a classic. So if BB expects us to start winning , It's good enough for me.
Secondly, we need to develop our youngsters in a positive environment. We cant just keep losing, and expect our young guns to not notice. They will at some stage start to expect some reward for effort. I dont want to see charlie or cripps walk away when they start getting offers over the 1.0m mark, we need to show them that we are on the up.
So you are right, its not about winning flags next year- but it doesnt have to be . We need to materially improve next year. I believe that means fringe 8 next year ie the POSSIBILITY of finals. Is that such a big ask? I dont think it is being unrealistic. If we use the 12 wins as a target then analyse what we did in the past 2 years , it means another 6 wins next year on top of the wins we were able to scrape together this year and last.
If we look at our games that we lost narrowly this year and say "with some luck"

Rd 2 V Melbourne : Could easily have won this
RD 8 V saints: Could have won ran out of puff
RD 10 V Roos: Could have won
RD 15 V Crows: Could have won
RD 16 V Melbourne: Could have won
RD 20 V Essendon: Could have won

Look I know that I am looking through blue colored glasses, but the fact remains that we were in 6 games in the last quarter and with some luck/experience/fitness we could have won them . This with our EXISTING list. Add Kelly , Add another quality mid, Add organic growth from our existing players. You cant tell me that we wouldnt be a much better side next year. That to me means that we probably win most of those dropped 6 games and another 1-2. This means fringe 8 to me. I think BB agrees.

No Kelly, Hopper or any other recruited or drafted player this year, will make as much difference as for the natural development of the players we've recruited/drafted in the past 2 years.

So many players I'm looking forward to watching next year; CCurnow, SPS, Fisher, Williamson, Macreadie, Pickett.........the list goes on.
That's what will make the difference. It has to.

 

[therubbernub]

[I understand how you feel, hopefully you are just as clinical with both sides of the argument
Windhover, care to join in?

The Flying Doormat,
]

The "argument" is jejune. Whether player A (Cripps) is better than player B (Kelly) will depend on what you see is most important about the player. Unless and until both sides of the argument can agree to what they consider to be "objective" indicia (like maybe Brownlow votes) the argument must rise no higher than "just because".

And on that point IMO it is undoubtedly the case that Cripps is better than Kelly. Why? Just because (and if you don't agree with me you know nothing about football. Nothing.)
(PS. I reserve the right to amend my view next year if/when Kelly joins us.)

How many players could you replace kelly with? answer: quite a few
How many players could you replace Cripps with? Answer: not many- if any

 

[therubbernub]

No Kelly, Hopper or any other recruited or drafted player this year, will make as much difference as for the natural development of the players we've recruited/drafted in the past 2 years.

So many players I'm looking forward to watching next year; CCurnow, SPS, Fisher, Williamson, Macreadie, Pickett.........the list goes on.
That's what will make the difference. It has to.

Agree, but they are not mutually exclusive

 

[HARKER]

Liam jones was traded to us by bullies for pick 46(Caleb Daniel).Who would you take now?

Liam by a mile.
We were never going to take Daniel anyway. (Mick was truly ahead of his time)

Every chance we would have just used that pick to bring in Clem Smith. We couldn't believe he was still available at our pick #60

 

[HARKER]

Agree, but they are not mutually exclusive

Of course not. It's just that some of us can forget just how much scope there is for our young guys to grow.

I'd be thrilled to get Kelly & Hopper next year, but would still be keener watching McKay, Pickett and Cuningham etc, through the pre-season.

 

[HBF]

Think i'd be pretty happy if we could land Hopper and a gun mid at the pointy end of this years draft.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yes, but Blues90 was saying that he'd rather splash the cash out on a key forward. For a mature bodied forward to take the heat off the kids, we wouldn't need to spend big money on a player of that type.

Elite midfield will generate premierships. Tell me the last team that won a flag without an elite midfield. I can tell you the Hawks didn't have an elite forward line and neither did the Dogs last year. It's all about the midfield.

I agree with you but it could be Adelaide this year. Also half of Hawthorn's forward line were elite in their position.

 

[Soapy V]

Of course not. It's just that some of us can forget just how much scope there is for our young guys to grow.

I'd be thrilled to get Kelly & Hopper next year, but would still be keener watching McKay, Pickett and Cuningham etc, through the pre-season.

Exactly

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Why Josh Kelly? He's an elite mid that can play inside and outside with great skills and that's what builds premiership success. We have Cripps as an elite mid, SPS potentially. That is WAY too thin to have only Cripps and a kid in his second season with an aging Murphy and no Gibbs it will not bode well at all.

Let me ask you this then, WCE have Kennedy, Swans have Franklin, GC have Lynch, Bombers have Daniher when's the last time they won a flag? In fact 2 of those teams are struggling to hold a spot in the top 8, one is out of the race and the other only got going when their midfield started clicking.

You can put 3 Josh Kennedy's in the forward line but if the mids are no good, then they're not going to be able to kick bags of goals because the delivery is going to suck.

We also have plenty of cash to be able to front load his contract big time. So the money shouldn't be a concern for us.

I don't understand this argument at all it's like saying midfielders are over rated because Gold Coast suck and have had the best midfielder this century. You can't compare one players output to 8 and come to a conclusion

 

[Arr0w]

For pick 2? No one. Can't see any other young elite mid on the table. Hopper will be more worthy of a pick 9 so maybe we can get that out of the Gibbs trade.

But yeah if he re-signs then I'd rather we keep pick 2 and draft the best mid available. My focus will shift to Shiel come 2019 while we keep drafting our own mids until then unless another gun becomes available (Coniglio for example).

Re quality on every line, we already have the potential for that. We will also obviously be trading in and drafting other players over the next couple of years. But our best currency should be spent on trying to get as many elite mids as we can.

Kelly this year
2 top 10 draft picks next year (try and shop around our 2019 1st for an additional 2018 top 10 pick or maybe orchestrate a deal with another club for their 2018 1st)
Shiel in 2019.

Like I've been saying, imo we need to have 4 elite mids. Cripps is one. With Kelly + Shiel there's 2 more and we then only need to rely on 1 of SPS or the 2 top 10 picks from 2018 draft to become elite. If all 3 of them do then we're talking 3 flags territory.

You are finally making some sense

Have no issue getting Kelly, as long as we don't pay overs. A Gibbs trade that would facilitate getting Hopper would be ideal. I have always liked Hopper, rated him probably higher than most, I still think he was the main target at the start of the year, gut feel only. I would still consider parting with pick 2, if it was for a package of A grade players, if Kelly re-signs.

KPP's take longer to have an impact, compared to many midfielders being able to have an immediate impact. So I would rather we don't leave the cupboard bare, thinking what we already have, will be our spine for the next 10 years

I have no issue with a slow burn list development, because where we finish next year has no bearing on building a premiership side

 

[Wickzki]

Liam jones was traded to us by bullies for pick 46(Caleb Daniel).Who would you take now?

Ask this question six months ago and people would laugh at you.

Caleb's still a very smart and skilled footballer. However, I think it's fair to say that he peaked last year. Coaches have really done their homework on him over the summer. He's not having the deadly effect on games that he had this time last year. Still, he was a pivotal player in their finals run and they got a premiership out of it so they'd be absolutely delighted.

Liam Jones has been a godsend. It's a pity that we didn't trial him there earlier. But who knows even if we had if the same result would have happened. I think Liam is the result of a perfect storm. An individual who simply refused to give up on an AFL career, who was ready, willing and able to take everything on board and the work ethic and mentality to make the most of it. And best of all is that the form hasn't slipped away since he saved his career and got that new contract. He's definitely one of the more inspirational stories that we have going on. Hopefully a few others will draw from it as their turn to make it or break it comes up.

We wouldn't have picked Caleb. By all reports, had we kept the pick we would have drafted Clem Smith higher than what we did.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

[I understand how you feel, hopefully you are just as clinical with both sides of the argument
Windhover, care to join in?

The Flying Doormat,
]

The "argument" is jejune. Whether player A (Cripps) is better than player B (Kelly) will depend on what you see is most important about the player. Unless and until both sides of the argument can agree to what they consider to be "objective" indicia (like maybe Brownlow votes) the argument must rise no higher than "just because".

And on that point IMO it is undoubtedly the case that Cripps is better than Kelly. Why? Just because (and if you don't agree with me you know nothing about football. Nothing.)
(PS. I reserve the right to amend my view next year if/when Kelly joins us.)

Welcome back!

 

[Blue Baggers]

We've positioned ourselves to start making these 'quick' fixes, this year and next.
We can't just sit on our hands and allow the competition to get a leg up on us now.

Can't see us just letting things roll on and simply going to the draft.
SOS will be very active in getting a more rounded and competitive outfit onto the park next year and watch out for the year after.

"We do need to go to the draft again but we do need at the same time to find just a bit more maturity when we're tested for depth, particularly in the midfield at the moment – and that's the balancing act we've got to get right in this upcoming draft and exchange period," Trigg said.

 

[PoultryinMotion]

Pick 18 for Sicily? I think I might vomit.

Jusge him on his footy. There is no doubt he is a player on the up IMO. Obviously can play forward or back. Is he a left footer also?? Would be nice if we could get him more cheaply than that though.

 

[majesticseacapt]

Think i'd be pretty happy if we could land Hopper and a gun mid at the pointy end of this years draft.

Agreed. Kelly is the prized recruit, but will cost too much. He will make us so much better, but i feel a strong midfield is better than a couple stars and duds, think Geelong. One injury or suspension and they have no depth.

I think hopper and another young gun in the draggyis the way to go. We desperately need quality midfield depth, if Gibbs leaves then we are really in need of players through the middle.

It appears we won't give up our first pick, if we can get Kelly with Gibbs or casboult pick then we hit the jackpot but more realistically hopper is more obtainable.. but we all know what sos can do

 

[GPW1]

HSun reporting that if cas leaves, we'll get pick 18 in return. Pretty handy return albeit we'd be light up top if we can't lure redpath away. The article also indicates that cas has taken more marks, kicked more goals and won more HOs than Reid in the last 3 years. Puts the criticism into perspective although he cost us against the scum

The statement in the article is a bit deceiving and lazy. Sam Reid didn't play any games in 2016 so of course Cas has more goals/marks (hitouts is irrelevant as Reid is rarely in the ruck).

As a quick comparison on 2017:
Reid - 17 games, 24 goals, 101 marks, 23 clangers, 31 turnovers
Cas - 19 games, 29 goals, 107 marks, 54 clangers, 47 turnovers

I like Casbolt, but Reid is clearly a better player.

 

[katmanblue]

Surely we will have one of Gibbs, Kelly or Hopper next year.

No way we can afford to get weaker on our thinnest line.

The thing is, everyone else is trying to get them too.

On SM-N920I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Hopper and Rayner would give me 80% satisfaction.

Kelly - 100%

 

[HARKER]

"We do need to go to the draft again but we do need at the same time to find just a bit more maturity when we're tested for depth, particularly in the midfield at the moment – and that's the balancing act we've got to get right in this upcoming draft and exchange period," Trigg said.

He also said that pick #2 would only be on the table for elite talent and SOS is actively seeking more mids leading into the trade period.

 

[bigdog43]

I'd be that excited for pick 18 if we somehow landed it for Casboult. Puts us in Worpel territory.

 

[LordLucifer]

No we're not in contention for a tilt at the flag yet..But we cant keep getting flogged and finishing bottom three either. Next year is year 3 of the rebuild and Bolts third as well.

The big point you are missing here is that we are not getting flogged when we lose. We are an improving side but prone to a fade-out due to not having enough longterm fitness & a lack of games under the belt.

RD 13 - beat GC by 10
RD 14 - lost to Tiges by 26
RD 15 - lost to Crows by 22
RD 16 - lost to Dees by 8
RD 17 - lost to dogs by 20
RD 18 - lost to Lions by 30
RD 19 - lost to Cats by 65
RD 20 - lost to Bombers by 8

Take out the Geelong match and we have been very competitive over the past 2-months.

No need to reinvent the rebuild game or go for the quick fixes, just keep going back to the draft and pick up quality youth, it's worked so far hasn't it ??