Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[KohPhi]

What about Kelly Hopper Smith?

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Im probs on my own here but I rate Whitfield, my concern is Hopper. I know injuries have taken a toll so far with him, but shit it's a big price to pay for a gun, a "potential" gun and a solid player like Smith. But then again, drafting isn't an exact science is it. Although SOS looks to have defied that in the past 2 seasons.

I'd be far more comfortable with either of the Kelly, Hopper and Whitfield/Smith scenarios if we also keep Gibbs.

 

[DangerousD]

Does anyone ever think that SOS actually thought swapping a 2nd round pick for a bunch of 3rds was the best option?

THERE IS NO PAYBACK.

 

[katmanblue]

Desperate people make desperate decisions with a higher rate of error.

Maybe the smarter thing to do is just stick to the original plan because "slow and steady wins the race".

You realise the original version of that story has everyone in the village dying?

They were relying no the hare to give warning of a fire (i think it was), but it was too slow.

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[SafeAsMilk]

17 disposals and 5 tackles per game in a high pick being played mostly out of position.

Yes, he is worth more than pick 18 alone.

Yet he averages less than 5 SEN player rating points per game. Similar to Cuningham and yes, he averages 5 less disposals but Cuningham averages more marks, tackles, and matches him in average goals in a bottom 2 team.

I like Hopper and think he has a lot of potential but I don't think he's done enough to maintain his original value of pick 7, especially being uncontracted.

 

[Arr0w]

2017/18 1st, Gibbs 1st rounder (16~18), Cas compo for Kelly and Hopper

Despite whether this happens, I think this trade scenario is the closest I have seen to reality, fair and reasonable starting point for both clubs

 

[Schoonerman]

Unless he asks ...

But he aint gonna...

 

[Kismet]

Bird in the hand...

The potential scenario is this in terms of what we would be offering for Kelly and Whitfield (I'm not yet a fan of Hopper):

Pick one.
2018 pick nine (If we get Kelly and Whitfield, our midfield, subject to injuries, starts to look very good. With them, finishing tenth is a reasonable aspiration).
Pick 25-30 (Can't see us getting as early as pick eighteen as some are suggesting).

So that means picks 1,9 and 25 for Kelly and Whitfield. Yes, Whitfield might not be the sharpest knife in the draw, but he's a damn good footballer with excellent disposal.

It's three selections for two gun players, and removes the lottery risk of a dud pick (and even SOS could make a mistake). Plus, it balances the age profile of our list.

Do the deal.

 

[FoeverBlues]

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/em...d-with-afl-draft-combine-invite-ng-b88563569z

With Gorringe on his way out, fills a definite need.

Like.

Ruckman-forward, can mark, can tackle, can kick goals, dislocated AC joint, broken bone in foot, escaped injury for most of this year and finally been able to put some games together and get some good form going. Sounds like a Kruezer clone, please get

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yet he averages less than 5 SEN player rating points per game. Similar to Cuningham and yes, he averages 5 less disposals but Cuningham averages more marks, tackles, and matches him in average goals in a bottom 2 team.

I like Hopper and think he has a lot of potential but I don't think he's done enough to maintain his original value of pick 7, especially being uncontracted.

5 disposals differeance is still over 40% more and I'm sure Hopper is a lot higher in clearances. I think you could get him for around pick 15 which is unders. Anything over that and GWS would be getting ripped and probably play hard ball.

 

[rp84]

Yet he averages less than 5 SEN player rating points per game. Similar to Cuningham and yes, he averages 5 less disposals but Cuningham averages more marks, tackles, and matches him in average goals in a bottom 2 team.

I like Hopper and think he has a lot of potential but I don't think he's done enough to maintain his original value of pick 7, especially being uncontracted.

Dave Actually averages less tackles and marginally more marks

 

[HARKER]

Let's put Cripps on the tables as well then ??

I keep reading about how it is a bad look to ship players off willy-nilly as it erodes camaraderie and team spirit yet you think it would be a great move to get rid of the captain.

I have no issue with trading out players but long-termers like the captain is not the answer.

Cripps will be around for another 10 years and is primed to be a long-term leader.
Murphy is 30, a reluctant and insignificant leader and won't be around for our next tilt at a premiership.

 

[FoeverBlues]

His job and his health rely on it.
Forget this notion of a slow, slow approach. It's full steam ahead.,

We are a club in a hurry

 

[therubbernub]

Cripps will be around for another 10 years and is primed to be a long-term leader.
Murphy is 30, a reluctant and insignificant leader and won't be around for our next tilt at a premiership.

Pretty harsh on Murphy IMO. But yes he is not going to go down as one of our exceptional captains.
I see Murph having an extended AFL career once he moves out of the fray of the midfield. IMO he would be amazing off a HFF , the sooner he is able to do this the better IMO. His ability to turn on a dime and excellent kick for goal would easily net him 40+ goals a year.

 

[Arr0w]

No ones trading for Casboult! All parties worse off!

Cas - gets lesser contract
Haw - loses assets
Car - gets less back than in free agency

I tend to agree, but you could see it both ways

Cas - gets lesser contract - Could match any offer put forward by us or Richmond
Haw - loses assets - Would probably be a player rather than a pick
Car - gets less back than in free agency - Depends on the player

 

[SafeAsMilk]

Dave Actually averages less tackles and marginally more marks

Career? Or Footywire is wrong.

 

[carlton09]

We are under the impression that brycey will request a trade home. We will accept a first rounder + 2nd or a player in return.

Could leave us winning on the trade table.

In - Kelly, Hopper/ Whitfield, Adl 1st (18) Adl 2nd or decent player

Out - Gibbs, 2017 and 2018 first, Levi compo.

Draft best mid with Pick 18

 

[F_therest]

Does anyone ever think that SOS actually thought swapping a 2nd round pick for a bunch of 3rds was the best option?

THERE IS NO PAYBACK.

Yes as he knew there was decent depth in the draft and we could then delist more dead wood.

However ericpascoe said it was seen as a favour by us and that hawthorn knew they owed us one so...

 

[Old navy]

Does anyone ever think that SOS actually thought swapping a 2nd round pick for a bunch of 3rds was the best option?

THERE IS NO PAYBACK.

A 2nd that's going to be close to pick 40, when it's all said and done.
So pick 40 for picks 48,60,66 IIRC
and some good will thrown in too, not the worst deal in history, Mecreadie and Williamson have made it well worth it too.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

5 disposals differeance is still over 40% more and I'm sure Hopper is a lot higher in clearances. I think you could get him for around pick 15 which is unders. Anything over that and GWS would be getting ripped and probably play hard ball.

3.0 vs 1.2 clearances per game Hopper's way. No idea on number of stoppages attended though.


A club can't demand a pick from another club that they don't have. 18 for Hopper and throwing around later picks is usually what is done to make up the difference. Not GWS forcing us to deal with Brisbane to get pick 15.

 

[goreds]

We are under the impression that brycey will request a trade home. We will accept a first rounder + 2nd or a player in return.

Could leave us winning on the trade table.

In - Kelly, Hopper/ Whitfield, Adl 1st (18) Adl 2nd or decent player

Out - Gibbs, 2017 and 2018 first, Levi compo.

Draft best mid with Pick 18

2018 first not on the table...

Hearing Kelly likely to stay at GWS for another 12 months... Hope I'm wrong!

 

[Funk]

Vickery was a free agent not a trade.
A free agent's contract can be renegotiated later but the initial contract is what is included in the salary cap. The AFL determines any compo based on these contracts so the AFL will not just allow clubs to change them later. Not so easy to do.

All of this correct - so you agree with me.

Contracts can be renegotiated later.

 

[HARKER]

2018 first not on the table...

Hearing Kelly likely to stay at GWS for another 12 months... Hope I'm wrong!

Yeah, can't imagine a situation where the CFC ticked off selling two first rounders.
Well, I can imagine but it would take a lot more than Kelly to do so.

 

[goreds]

Yeah, can't imagine a situation where the CFC ticked off selling two first rounders.
Well, I can imagine but it would take a lot more than Kelly to do so.

Throw in Lynch!!

 

[HARKER]

Throw in Lynch!!

Let me think about it.........thought about it......where's the pen?

 

[rog1995]

Thinking outside the box. Like it

I wonder if Crippa had a say seems he played in the same junior team.