Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[Jimmae]

Oh for ****'s sake... when was the last time we left a draftee without a one year option on his contract? Cuningham will stay.

Kreuzer will stay too.

This is exactly right.
No club has 44 players on their list with the mindset and drive of a Patrick Cripps.
If enough of the right pieces are in place, players such as Jaksch & Boekhorst, who do have some genuine AFL quality traits, can fill some needs.

Graham whilst being BOG yesterday, will struggle at the highest level, unfortunately.
Have said this for a couple of years now; He plays a different game at different levels. It's like watching two different players.

There is a massive difference in application to the tasks required from Boekhorst versus Jaksch.

That said, he looked better in the highlights this week, and they took him over to WA last week, so maybe he has finally turned the corner. He's got something to play for next week, so maybe he can show even more.

 

[HARKER]

There is a massive difference in application to the tasks required from Boekhorst versus Jaksch.

That said, he looked better in the highlights this week, and they took him over to WA last week, so maybe he has finally turned the corner. He's got something to play for next week, so maybe he can show even more.

You couldn't have said that in the first half of the year, as it was Jaksch that was putting up the effort with Jaksch looking disinterested..........and you can't simply bring up one players extra-curricular activities, without knowing the others. They may be birds of a feather, for all one knows.

 

[Jimmae]

You couldn't have said that in the first half of the year, as it was Jaksch that was putting up the effort with Jaksch looking disinterested..........and you can't simply bring up one players extra-curricular activities, without knowing the others. They may be birds of a feather, for all one knows.

I could, and I did. Back then, I hoped for the uptick to continue with Jaksch, and it didn't.

 

[katmanblue]

Call me crazy.

You're crazy

 

[katmanblue]

I think we can still target Kelly if we want. The key is getting Kelly, a sublime talent, without torpedoing our capacity to add depth. What killed us in the Judd trade was we gave up 4 strong assets, which left us short on depth.

GWS will ask for 2 x first rounders, on par with what GC got for O'Meara. Let's assume that's the starting point and do it. But, what they have heaps of, and we need, is depth and mid round talent.

I say we try for something like this:
GWS get pick 4, pick 39 and our 2018 first and third (35ish)
We get Kelly, picks 24 and 25, and their 2018 first (likely pick 16-18).

We get a superstar midfielder, plus we can add 3x depth youngsters over the next 2 years. If Casboult goes we potentially get 3x picks in the 20-25 range this year.

Would they do that? Most teams wouldn't give up 24 and 25, but GWS already have bucketloads of depth - for them, it's about topping up with a top 5 talent or two each year + keeping pts for academy players. They don't need 24 and 25 this year cos they only have 1 academy guy, and 37 will get that done. They lose Kelly, top up with a top 5 pick, a pick in the teens, and an academy player and add a top 5 pick next year. I think they say yes, or go close with that.

Could work.

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[SOSforPM]

That's one way of looking at it and obviously that's the way you've decided to. You're looking at other factors it could impact as well. Except, you've only seemed to list the negative ones.

Let's take a look at the positive factors now:

Kelly is a 22 year old elite gun mid who will help Cripps enormously, not to mention what SPS, Cunners and Fisher can learn from him. So he will add not only as an elite player but experience as well.

This year's draft does not have a great ball user mid. THAT is exactly what we need and that is what Kelly is. So Kelly will fill a need more than anyone we could possibly draft with pick#4.

We do not have to wait a couple of years for him to develop, he will have an instant impact.

So imo, it would be a better move to get him than not to.

No doubt Kelly would be an awesome get! It's just the price at this stage of the rebuild that would deter me. If Kelly has an awesome finals series I wouldn't be surprised if they except nothing less than our 2017 and 2018 first. Would you do that?

 

[Red Bull]

No doubt Kelly would be an awesome get! It's just the price at this stage of the rebuild that would deter me. If Kelly has an awesome finals series I wouldn't be surprised if they except nothing less than our 2017 and 2018 first. Would you do that?

I see that as the price now .
I'd pass .

 

[The Bighouse]

What if Kelly stays and GWS still wants to get into the first round and says.....Hopper and Whitfield for pick 4! Would we? Surely we would!

Shirley all the way.

 

[Coona Blues]

Kelly is elite, if he wants us, we have to get it done, and SOS will. Given the current lay of the land,
is going to cost our first, this year and next. The absolute best case scenario is for us to get their 2018
first rounder back (or an early 2nd they would need to acquire.)

He seemingly wants to return "home" to Victoria, and the best offer from GWS is reported as $800,000.
If they are to retain him it will need some very persuasive dialogue and a bigger offer. That bigger offer
would mean the certain departure of one or more of his team mates, who all seem more intent on staying
than Kelly. He could then depart during a Free Agency window in a couple of years. Logic says is gone.

We have more need for one mature, yet young, bankable genuine star (and quality person) than multiple
depth or speculative picks. With SPS, Fisher, Cuningham, likely Polson and possibly Charlie and Williamson
to add to our midfield, we lose little by overlooking another young kid in need of development. I personally
advocate taking one or more mature state leaguers (Tim Kelly tops my list). Mature bodies at draftee $'s
rather than overpaying for Palmer, Smedts and somewhat reluctantly (from me) Graham, frees up coin
for a mooted shot at Lynch next time around, and retention of our growing list of quality young players.

 

[therubbernub]

I see it this way. The better Kelly plays, the higher the $ contract offers will be. NOW we know that GWS are NOT in a position to pay absolutely huge dollars for anyone due to the looming salary cap explosion. Which means that it is up to other clubs to offer those big $'s.
What we do know is player managers are driven by NEW CONTRACT UPLIFT. In other words the managers want to maximise the INCREASE in contract $'s because that is how they are paid (they dont get paid much for simply rolling over a contract) So a golden asset such as Josh will be the player manager's number one priority because his uplift contact is probably worth 20 roll over contracts. Therefore no stone will be unturned in order to maximise his next contract . That is why I see GWS out of the equation - because it just makes sense for both JK and his management Connors Sports management to chase the dollar. This is his big contract- if he goes long. If he goes short then the odds shorten that he stays at GWS.
Now if the decision is made to go long, then the whole argument about where the list is heading, opens up. I see that as eliminating Nth at this time. I see that it would keep the Saints in the race, and I also think the Hawks become a threat. But given last nights result, I think that the age profile of our list and our coach, puts us in the lead.

 

[HyphensBack]

Haven't seen a lot of "Richie" Cuningham but has the sort of build and game style that could really add to our team once he develops SO I am a little concerned that he hasn't been playing the last couple of weeks and it has been said he hasn't signed up.

We can't afford to lose young developing mids, we need more mids not less.
If Cuningham has been low balled then SOS want to get more than a second round pick back, he was an early second round pick and is developing nicely. Still reckon we should be giving up one of the KP players to help in a trade not a mid. I might be jumping to conclusuion but if not prefer to give up Palmer or Graham but I suspose it wouldn't get us anything.

 

[Raymann]

Does anyone have an idea of the offer for Kelly. $ and term

 

[Jimmae]

Does anyone have an idea of the offer for Kelly. $ and term

We don't just give out that kind of information...

How do we know you're not Craig Cameron??

 

[Raymann]

We don't just give out that kind of information...

How do we know you're not Craig Cameron??

You got me.
May have to up my offer

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Whether we end up with pick 3 or 4... and if Kelly does choose us and us only, the deal will get done.

SOS won't give up pick 4 and next year's first which will be most likely a top 8 pick (the 2018 crop is just too good to not feature in the first round). Its too much at this stage of a rebuild.

SOS loves taking on a salary dump so theres every possibility we take Griffin off their books and the deal gets done. We probably need to throw in a second rounder next year or something similar, but its more likely to be a deal like this: (depending on Gibbs leaving that is and we get pick 10 for him)

Out: pick 4, pick 10, 2018 2nd round pick
In Kelly, Hopper, Griffin
(They potentially clear 2 million from their 2018 salary and bring in 2 top 10 picks. Sometimes clubs just have to make these decisions)

On paper it clearly looks like we win this deal. But don't under estimate the power of taking on a salary dump. GWS have that many stars on their list and their cap i am sure would be stretched. No idea what Griffin is on salary wise but id suggest it would be close to $650k. They need to play the kids as theres just too much talent there. We have seen Carlton take on 2 salary dumps from gws in the past 2 years. Its clearly a gws rule to throw away players that are taking up too much salary. Sos would know this.

Anyways thats my thought. We have done it the past 2 years. Why wouldn't we make it a 3rd...

 

[Soapy V]

There was a lot of talk at the footy last night that it's between GWS & us and Kelly himself isn't sure which way to go. Could well depend if GWS win the flag. If we could add Kelly Hopper & Balic to our current group I would be ecstatic. Make a massive difference.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

To help people who think we are selling the farm. Please see the following 2 attachments and trust our guru's

 

[Red Bull]

Whether we end up with pick 3 or 4... and if Kelly does choose us and us only, the deal will get done.

SOS won't give up pick 4 and next year's first which will be most likely a top 8 pick (the 2018 crop is just too good to not feature in the first round). Its too much at this stage of a rebuild.

SOS loves taking on a salary dump so theres every possibility we take Griffin off their books and the deal gets done. We probably need to throw in a second rounder next year or something similar, but its more likely to be a deal like this: (depending on Gibbs leaving that is and we get pick 10 for him)

Out: pick 4, pick 10, 2018 2nd round pick
In Kelly, Hopper, Griffin
(They potentially clear 2 million from their 2018 salary and bring in 2 top 10 picks. Sometimes clubs just have to make these decisions)

On paper it clearly looks like we win this deal. But don't under estimate the power of taking on a salary dump. GWS have that many stars on their list and their cap i am sure would be stretched. No idea what Griffin is on salary wise but id suggest it would be close to $650k. They need to play the kids as theres just too much talent there. We have seen Carlton take on 2 salary dumps from gws in the past 2 years. Its clearly a gws rule to throw away players that are taking up too much salary. Sos would know this.

Anyways thats my thought. We have done it the past 2 years. Why wouldn't we make it a 3rd...

In the last few years GWS have had to reduce their list numbers back the standard number that all other clubs operate under .
Hence the chance for us to take a salary dump in order to obtain a discount on our target .
Those days are now over and in any case its highly likely Griffen has no desire at all to return to Melbourne .
The mail from respected poster on this board suggests Gibbs is now likely to stay , pretty much backed up by Gibbs himself in his after match interview .
If GWS wanted and received 2 1st rounders for Treloar , that's at least what they'll require for Kelly who is on another level .

 

[HereComesJuddy]

In the last few years GWS have had to reduce their list numbers back the standard number that all other clubs operate under .
Hence the chance for us to take a salary dump in order to obtain a discount on our target .
Those days are now over and in any case its highly likely Griffen has no desire at all to return to Melbourne .
The mail from respected poster on this board suggests Gibbs is now likely to stay , pretty much backed up by Gibbs himself in his after match interview .
If GWS wanted and received 2 1st rounders for Treloar , that's at least what they'll require for Kelly who is on another level .

Then we will agree to disagree. Their player payments are higher than ever. The quality on that list is huge. They will need to shed coin sonewhere.
You're right, back the respected posters on this board. As displayed in my previous post.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

No doubt Kelly would be an awesome get! It's just the price at this stage of the rebuild that would deter me. If Kelly has an awesome finals series I wouldn't be surprised if they except nothing less than our 2017 and 2018 first. Would you do that?

The most I'd be willing to give up would be like what I said earlier. Trade Gibbs to Adelaide for pick #10 add it with pick #4. Two top 10 picks, one being relatively high.

We cannot afford to give up 2 first rounders in a row and the mids in this year's draft don't have the ball use skills that I'd be looking for. If we lose key mids to injury again next year, that pick with be another top 4 pick despite having Kelly and especially if Gibbs goes.

 

[Jimmae]

If GWS wanted and received 2 1st rounders for Treloar , that's at least what they'll require for Kelly who is on another level .

How many times has it been stated that Collingwood traded two firsts (pick 8 and a future pick) and got pick 28 back, and how many times has it been stated that there is no way Collingwood expected to slide down the ladder when they made that trade.

It was also seen as overs at the time. Terrible, stupid example; please stop.

 

[Soapy V]

How many times has it been stated that Collingwood traded two firsts (pick 8 and a future pick) and got pick 28 back, and how many times has it been stated that there is no way Collingwood expected to slide down the ladder when they made that trade.

It was also seen as overs at the time. Terrible, stupid example; please stop.

So we agree they received 2 x First rounders and Kelly is better than Treloar. [emoji4]

 

[Red Bull]

Then we will agree to disagree. Their player payments are higher than ever. The quality on that list is huge. They will need to shed coin sonewhere.
You're right, back the respected posters on this board. As displayed in my previous post.

If Kelly decides to stay the Giants will be thrilled and will waste no time moving on whoever they see fit to meet their salary cap requirements .
If Kelly decides to leave , the price will be the same to which ever club he nominates eg 2 1st rounders with the only possible exception i see being the club that holds pick 1.
The latest mail we have here re Gibbs is that he is likely to now stay .
Things do of course change but ms3 is respected here and Gibbs himself backed it up last night .

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Whether we end up with pick 3 or 4... and if Kelly does choose us and us only, the deal will get done.

SOS won't give up pick 4 and next year's first which will be most likely a top 8 pick (the 2018 crop is just too good to not feature in the first round). Its too much at this stage of a rebuild.

SOS loves taking on a salary dump so theres every possibility we take Griffin off their books and the deal gets done. We probably need to throw in a second rounder next year or something similar, but its more likely to be a deal like this: (depending on Gibbs leaving that is and we get pick 10 for him)

Out: pick 4, pick 10, 2018 2nd round pick
In Kelly, Hopper, Griffin
(They potentially clear 2 million from their 2018 salary and bring in 2 top 10 picks. Sometimes clubs just have to make these decisions)

On paper it clearly looks like we win this deal. But don't under estimate the power of taking on a salary dump. GWS have that many stars on their list and their cap i am sure would be stretched. No idea what Griffin is on salary wise but id suggest it would be close to $650k. They need to play the kids as theres just too much talent there. We have seen Carlton take on 2 salary dumps from gws in the past 2 years. Its clearly a gws rule to throw away players that are taking up too much salary. Sos would know this.

Anyways thats my thought. We have done it the past 2 years. Why wouldn't we make it a 3rd...

Pffft. Where do we sign?

That would be a monumental win at the trade table.

 

[The Bighouse]

How many times has it been stated that Collingwood traded two firsts (pick 8 and a future pick) and got pick 28 back, and how many times has it been stated that there is no way Collingwood expected to slide down the ladder when they made that trade.

It was also seen as overs at the time. Terrible, stupid example; please stop.

Not entirely, Richmond were chasing hard, their push may have factored in a similar offer hence the level Collingwood needed to get close to a suitable trade. And precedence would be an angle used in any AFL mediation, I'm sure.

Same may apply with suitors for JK and trade scenarios bandied about, get close to it to make it happen. Same with JOM last year, Hawks went out of their way to accomodate the level required to get it across the line (benefiting CFC, STK, GCFC in the procession).