Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion Part II

[DangerousD]

Lets not think about it too hard..

If Kelly picks Carlton..
We give them this years and next years 1st rounder...
and take back their 2nd round pick via Collingwood and shake hands..

We have 2 of the best 5 midfielders under 22 in the comp and we pat ourselves on the back.
SOS is a genius and I'm sure he will find another way to get back into the 1st round next year.

That 2nd round pick will make or break the trade imo, get a good kid in and we are laughing, stuff it up and we have paid overs. Unless the Giants pick a dud that is.

 

[Neadsy83]

**** Cameron. He can go to Brissy.

If Kelly re-signs, we take picks 4 and 12 to the draft (or look to trade 12 for Hopper and change).

No I mean't that we get P20 to go with P17 after Cameron is traded to Brisbane!

 

[Malifice]

Remember - this year was about two things:

1) Getting games into the kids
2) An ultra defensive game plan.

Next year we will continue with 1, but also start to shift towards a more attacking style of play. Bolton has said as much earlier in the week.

Becoming more offensive will take another year at least past 2018 to get right. By the end of 2019 I expect to see both an effective offensive gameplan (to go with a miserly defence) and most of our kids to be hitting or approaching the magical 100 game mark.

Then in 2020 it's game on.

 

[BJuddy]

I disagree, if Ed is still a first choice midfielder in 5 years time then something has gone wrong somewhere IMO.

Ed is a fantastic athlete, will run all day, great shut down option whilst still accumulating his share of the ball in congestion. We could do far worse than him. That being said i wouldn't like to see him as a top four option in the middle like he is when healthy at the moment.

 

[DangerousD]

At the start of 2019 most of our kids will be in the 50+ game mark and the 20-24 age bracket. For mine, while thats still too young to expect a flag assault, it's not exactly inexperienced either.

Obviously in 2020 those numbers increase to around 100 games by the time finals come around. Then we could (and should) be expecting a serious assault to start in earnest, and to continue for the 5 years following this period at least.

I keep looking at the Dogs premiership last year, the Hawks before them, the Hawks in 2008 and the Swans all had quite a lot of Senior heads in their GF sides, I'm not talking 100 games but 200+.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Could say the same thing about Zac Merrett (just one example) who was taken with #26 in the 2013 draft.

Yeah but that list specifically only goes up to pick #20.

 

[G-TRAIN07]

That 2nd round pick will make or break the trade imo, get a good kid in and we are laughing, stuff it up and we have paid overs. Unless the Giants pick a dud that is.

unless the giants have a grand final hangover and finish bottom 3 and we get pick 3 next year

 

[Arr0w]

I dont see any genuine assault starting till 2020 onwards, with the critical time period being 2020-2025.

Everything we do now should be with the goal of having the best possible chance of success during that 5 year window.

We're nearly 2 years down into the meat of a 3 year reset. The guts of that reset will be complete by the end of next year, but we'll need 2019 as well in my view to get in another player and F/A or two.



Trading Gibbs gets us closer to a commodity in Kelly (should the latter leave and nominate us). It also improves our chances of getting a best 22 player in the draft should Kelly decide to stay (or go elsewhere).

If we're serious about maximising our chances of a sustained 5 year period at the top post 2020, then trading Gibbs is a no brainer.



At the start of 2019 most of our kids will be in the 50+ game mark and the 20-24 age bracket. For mine, while thats still too young to expect a flag assault, it's not exactly inexperienced either.

Obviously in 2020 those numbers increase to around 100 games by the time finals come around. Then we could (and should) be expecting a serious assault to start in earnest, and to continue for the 5 years following this period at least.

Great post

 

[Malifice]

I keep looking at the Dogs premiership last year, the Hawks before them, the Hawks in 2008 and the Swans all had quite a lot of Senior heads in their GF sides, I'm not talking 100 games but 200+.

Once we start being a serious threat, we can bring in free agents to fill a need. Being successful will help with that.

For now we need to be getting as much talent 23 and younger into the club as we can. Some of it as depth. Some of it as best 22. Some of it as elite talent.

Consider at the start of season 2020:

1) Cripps will be 25 and will have close to 100 games under his belt. Kelly (if we get him) will be at the same mark.
2) Docherty will be 26 with 150 odd games.
3) Jacob Weitering will be 22 with 80 odd games to his name (as will much of the draft class from 2015 - McKay, Curnow etc).
4) SPS and Fisher will be 21 with 60 odd games to their names.

Thats the first season when we should be expecting to win more than we lose, and be pushing for top 4. And even then, it's still a relatively young side, and one that will be right in the hunt for the next 5+ years.

 

[DangerousD]

Here is a list of 2018 FA to get excited over.

R.Sloane: Adelaide
C.Guthrie: Geelong
T.Lynch: GC
T.Nichols: GC
I.Smith: Haw
M.Gawn: Mel
N.Jeta: Mel, unrestricted
R.Gray: Port
T.Boak: Port, unrestricted
N.Smith: Syd, unrestricted
A.Gaff: WC (may have re-signed)
L.Dahlhous: WB
M. Wallis: WB
T. Libratore: WB

A lot of guys there that fill positions we are in desperate need of, Jeta, Smith, Grey, Dahl.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Pick 12 alone for Gibbs to me is too risky prospect. Gibbs has 4-5 years of good football ahead of him with pick 12 being quite speculative. If we are contending in 2020 that means that Bryce will be there for 2-3 seasons of challenging for a flag.
With FA available and a supposed war chest of cash there is no need to trade away top end talent.

We can still add Kelly through various means and have a presence in the next two drafts and keep our FA options open. Pick 2-3 is a very valuable commodity going in to the trade period and we are still unsure if Cas will be leaving (netting us a pick to play with).

If Kelly is not added we will still have picks 2-3, additions of possibly Hopper, Balic, Miles, Smith without having to trade a 1st rounder and the ability to attract a top end mid through FA next year whilst keeping our 2018 1st rounder.

The amount of talent available next year via FA is enormous.

That and Gibbs is bloody accurate in front of goal and is quite a solid marking target. He can spend his twilight years rotating mid/Hf with the potential to damage the scoreboard regularly.

 

[LanceRomance]

Saints back in to Dusty again... Richmond board getting very nervous

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Can see us being top 4 in 2019

 

[Aphrodite]

I'm well aware of his contractual situation.
I was posting under the assumption that he again requests a trade .
But well picked up
Well spotted
Congratulations
Well done
Lol

Great comeback

LOL

 

[Wickzki]

Saints back in to Dusty again... Richmond board getting very nervous

If I'm Dusty I re-sign with Richmond for all the monies.

Why go to St. Kilda? They couldn't even make the finals in Riewoldt's last year. Their list surely takes a dive for a year or two. We've seen how inconsistent and poor they've been without him.

I don't believe that there is a more overrated list, top to bottom, in the competition than St. Kilda's. People talk about their good young players but of the teams with good young players their depth is by far the most shallow.

Riewoldt and Dempster are gone this year. The likes of Montagna, Gilbert, Armitage and Geary aren't too far off joining them.

 

[LanceRomance]

If I'm Dusty I re-sign with Richmond for all the monies.

Why go to St. Kilda? They couldn't even make the finals in Riewoldt's last year. Their list surely takes a dive for a year or two. We've seen how inconsistent and poor they've been without him.

I don't believe that there is a more overrated list, top to bottom, in the competition than St. Kilda's. People talk about their good young players but of the teams with good young players their depth is by far the most shallow.

Riewoldt and Dempster are gone this year. The likes of Montagna, Gilbert, Armitage and Geary aren't too far off joining them.

You should check out their board

 

[Wickzki]

You should check out their board

They overhyping themselves to all buggery?

We're talking about a club and a fanbase that openly supported known rapists and chasing high school aged girls. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they were as delirious as most Essendon supporters. Besides, with that club's history, anything other than a wooden spoon caliber team is worth celebrating.

 

[Aphrodite]

You should check out their board

'Box seat' to get both Dusty & Kelly.

 

[Wickzki]

'Box seat' to get both Dusty & Kelly.

Next thing they'll make Kevin Bartlett an honorary life member

 

[BlueTongue]

Saints back in to Dusty again... Richmond board getting very nervous

I'm just hoping they (Richmond) don't change tact and resign themselves to losing Dusty only to come after a certain elite mid whom we are into and seems to be Victoria bound by latest reports...

 

[BlueTongue]

Can see us being top 4 in 2019

Ditto. We have knocked over top sides this year and i don't think our forwards are that far off the mark.

 

[RudyBlue]

Mal you are obsessed with trading Gibbs.

It's now or never really

 

[Aphrodite]

It's now or never really

Most likely never.

Personally I don't think he will request a trade.

 

[james Dean]

Apart from J.Brown mentioning it on the couch a couple months back, there has been next to no media noise about Carlton being a major player in the Josh Kelly race.

Am I just being negative or am I right in thinking we are buckley's chance of recruiting him?

 

[Blue__Balls]

Can see us being top 4 in 2019

Such a tough thing to predict though - because it's not just about how much we improve, but who else improves and who declines at the same time.

GWS will be up the pointy end for a good few years with their talented young list.
Richmond really aren't that old either, so as long as they keep Dusty they should be in finals contention for the next few years (and gaining confidence).
Geelong have a few more good years out of Dangerwood, they'll be thereabouts in 2019.
Adelaide's window probably shuts in 2020, so expect them to go hard in 2019.
Sydney seem to have nailed the art of drafting quality players with late/rookie picks. Should still be pushing finals in two years.
Melbourne are on the verge of becoming a very good side, and they've got a lot of young players leading the way.
Brisbane are at a very similar stage to us, and seem to have gotten buy-in from their young playing group.
WB have had a shit year, who knows how they'll respond.
Essendon are really tough to get a read on, could slide as easily as they could rise.

In two year's time, I'd expect us to comfortably go past: NM, GC, Freo, Collingwood, Hawthorn, StK, WC, PA, Essendon, WB.

Whether we are simply making the 8 vs. making the top 4 is going to hinge a lot on whether teams like Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney and Richmond fall away, and how much improvement there still is in Melbourne and Brisbane.

Can we make top 4 in 2019? Absolutely, we can. But we'll need a few things to go our way as well.